Monday, December 10, 2012

Worsening of economical instability in Venezuela

We must cover the economic problems coming for Venezuela separately from the renewed political instability.  Usually these go together but in a system based on autocracy and personality cult they somehow can be treated separately.

If Chavez indeed leaves power sometime in January there will be elections no later than April. That the Constitution says 30 days is irrelevant since there is no way to organize and run a campaign in 30 days unless we already know an official date of "resignation" by Chavez. April is thus a realistic goal that all will agree on even if it violates the Constitution.

If you think that the October 7 vote was unfair just wait for the April vote when the country will have less money and a less "appealing" candidate than Chavez. This time the CNE will be even more partial than it was for Chavez, cheating will reach new heights. And every penny will be thrown to the street, leaving a terrible situation for June 2013 when the new guy is sworn in.

But that is not all what the new guy will find on his desk (I am 99,99% sure it will be a HE, by the way). We inherit an already difficult economic situation because of the expenses for the October 7 vote. And the renewed disease of Chavez will leave some essential macroeconomic problems unaddressed  In short order: gas price increase, devaluation, unsustainable price control, Mercosur start.

We are facing a crisis which cannot be described with complacent terms such as "fiscal cliff".

With this two posts written in a row and going straight to the bone I hope that any reader will be able to understand that the irresponsibility of a single man, driven by his sick ego, will leave a torn out and politically broken country by next June.  Chavez own version of Spring 1945.  Let's see if from each side we find serious folks willing to sit together and face the reality even before Chavez dies. I doubt it.


  1. We can only hope then that Chavez dies really fast and allows for an earlier re-construction of Venezuela economy. The longer he struggles, worse will be for Venezuelans to recover and more they will suffer.

    Yet, I think that the chavist party will delay a lot the news of Chavez' demise.

  2. Charly11:04 PM

    Well, the good news is that the phoenix will have to rise from the ashes and that will be just too bad for the "dame, dame" crowd.

  3. Anonymous4:59 AM

    Chavez will come back before January and after he takes over he will step down...this will give them time...remember they are experts in delaying the events until they need to. This is all figure out already.
    Call me crazy but in the next election, if I was the opposition, I will run a "naked true campaign" tell people that the devaluation is necessary and it will happen, the increase in gas is necessary and it will happen, that the economy is going to be in bad shape and everybody need to "apretarse el cinturon"...does not matter who will win this things will be necessary. If the Venezuelans vote for the chavistas again,they soon will know that the opposition was telling the truth and at the long term the opposition will survived. Maria Gonzalez

    1. Anonymous5:20 PM

      Venezuelans only look after themselves. The country's economy is going down the drain. However, if a politician promises that you are special and will receive gifts to make your life easier, then that politician will get your vote. This is the core of Chavism.

      Another premise is that Chavista's will always always say that life will be worse if the opposition is in power. The economy will be bad for whoever is in power.

  4. I think you are right in many ways Sungilam, but i also think many people in Venezuela have to change their mentality. Need to know the money is not be earned by only terrorise fellow country men and killing them who have good ideas for the country. The opposition sure need to be one and must have good plans for building up the country. If not i think it will take a long time for stability and peace in Venezuela.

  5. Off topic (sorry) but about the upcoming elections in Venezuela, you might want to listen to this video:


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