Saturday, November 21, 2015

A casual electoral prediction (election YV-5)

In past elections I have made predictions that often turned out acceptable to excellent (and sometimes not). This time around as announced, I have not made any exhaustive analysis of numbers and trends because, well, I have no time, not that much interest, the election is too emotional, etc...  And mostly because I do not know what will happen on December 6, but I know quite well what will start on December 7. If the regime does not cancel the election, still a possibility for a crazed Maduro.

Yet, I should still play a little.

How did I come up with this graph? After looking at the Caucaguita tale telling trend I did my district excel table, tossed around a few numbers based on the 2010 election, got inspiration on results in between, kept in mind that being angry at Maduro does not mean that the chavista voter will cross the line, and never forgot that the regime has enough of a blackmailing machinery to still be able to save the basics.  This, of course, allow me to remain skeptic of the very enthusiastic polls in favor of the opposition.  I mean, at this point, I do not think that the treachery of the regime will be enough to save its skin but I am willing to bet that the opposition will not reach the 2/3 grail (power to change the constitution).

Thus the above is my pessimistic result where chavismo retains as much clout as possible. But for that it will need to retain all the seats that I termed "Lean PSUV" and, well, all the toss up seats. I doubt that it can manage that and chavismo should be thankful that it keeps 3/4 of the leaning one and half of the toss up, which will be enough for the opposition to win and get close to a 3/5 majority.

Say, statistically:
45 of the safe +19 of the lean MUD, + 14 tossup, + 6 lean PSUV that makes 84 out of 167, that is 1 seat majority. This for me is the very least the MUD will get.

My max? At this point:
49 safe +24 lean MUD + 16 toss up +10 lean PSUV +2 upset of the red ones that makes 101 out of 167. Or 60% of the seats (with more than 60% of the vote, kind of a stretch no matter what polls say). That is, a 3/5 majority by one seat. Sorry, I cannot come up with a better number for you anti chavista crowd at this time. We'll see December 5.

Reminder: I am not sticking out my neck on this prediction as I have not been able to do all the local research I used to do for other elections. It is as serious a work as I can do according to circumstances but it is still incomplete.


  1. God job. Now lets hope the opposition doesn't fall in the trap of signing anything with UNASUR. What they need to do is ask UNASUR to order Maduro and Lucena to allow equal time on state TV, to the MUD and other parties, based on both current poll results and the 2010 assembly vote. Give them 72 hours to comply or they will declare the elections to be irregular and illegal IF the PSUV wins.

    1. Yeah good job, this analysis and 50cents will get you a cup of coffee

    2. Anonymous3:30 PM

      Not in Venezuela

  2. I hope people vote and change the assembly!! /if they don't they can't complain about the shortages and wait in long lines everyday!

    1. How will you ever know what the people truly voted? They didn't vote Maduro in yet he is their. Make any country majority poor and run a socialist promising government and it will win.

  3. Can't wait to see to what extent they will use Chavez's Fraudmatic electronic voting system this time. Don't be surprised if el Mago Jorge Rodriguez and his Smartmatic gang are practicing on the beautiful subtleties of the Olivetti/Sequoia/Dominion secret Source Code malware manipulations.

  4. I like the light-blue "toss up seats". I would have called them the "cuanto hay pa' eso" seats, but anyway..

  5. Anonymous12:50 PM

    The real question is 'what happens December 7th, when the votes clearly give the opposition control over the CNE...or if by fraud, it stays PSUV?'
    Venezuela will, either way, fall into a borderline civil war. The opposition clearly has this election won, yet when you have a Pres who has public said he wont respect the outcome, no result will be a good result. Simply put, fraud will give him an election and civil war, fair election will result in armed Coup by Maduro.

  6. Anonymous2:59 AM



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