It is difficult to imagine overseas what we are going though in Venezuela these days. Sure enough it is not Syria, but sure enough the regime would not mind it becoming Syria, with the Russians helping them and Cuba keep a hold on the situation. More than ever the problem is the same: how can you expect a group of corrupt narco-terrorists to surrender power peacefully through elections? It cannot be done and luckily I am starting to see in the press and media what this blog has been explaining for too long already. Unfortunately it is reaching a point were stern international action is required before this become a major scale refugee crisis.
But since I have been away for so long, I will settle here with highlighting a few of the crucial points in the last couple fo weeks. Later, I am going to try to write about what life has become here.
A constitutional change that nobody wants
As I wrote earlier, the constituent assembly that Maduro and his gang are trying to force feed us is a mere excuse to do away with democracy. The surprise comes that no one but the Miraflores inner court is buying it. Even small "opposition" out of MUD parties are rejecting it. And there is certainly no great love shown from inside chavismo. But the regime keeps digging its heels and has a massive propaganda operation which so far is not yielding profits.
The general prosecutor gives an interview to the Wall Street Journal
Luisa Ortega used to be a pillar of the regime. No more. She has not broken outright with the regime but for practical reasons: as long as she is in office and pretends not to have broken with it, the regime can do little to her. On May 3 the Wall Street Journal published and interview of Ms. Ortega. More than what actually she says in the interview criticizing some of the regime actions what is notable is that 1) she gave an interview, a rare thing for her and 2) that she gave it to the Wall Street Journal. I mean, in general this type of job holder give such type of interviews to newspapers more concerned by legal questions and human rights like, say, the NYT or the WaPo. So why go to a newspaper that prefers business news or political news that may impact business lately?
I think that she chose the Wall Street Journal to send a clear message to the regime. After all the WSJ is embroiled in a legal tangle with Diosdado Cabello who the WSJ exposed as a drug dealer. What the message is I am sure that the gentle reader is equally capable as I am to speculate on.
Military courts
Whatever Luisa Ortega is up to one thing is certain, the regime does not trust her with repression anymore. In the current escalade of terror civilians by the hundred are sent to military courts where they are swiftly processed and punished, in violation of any international norms. A truly terrorist action from the regime.
A new terror game
On April 19 I reported the extensive terror that the regime uses. Well, on May 3 this reached a new level and I was there. In short, we were gathered in front of the Las Mercedes exchange and on the right we were seeing tear gas drifting. But people did not move, waiting to see what would happen. I was up on a wall of sorts trying to get good shots. And suddenly I hear pandemonium on my left side: the nazional guard appeared from the small La Carlota airport where it was hiding and caught us in rear guard without much possibility to escape. That is, the regime created a possible dangerous stampede aggravated by suffocation. Note: there were plenty of people 50+ in the crowd.
I was about to take a video on the events from my right side and the only thing I could get was this Instagram posted stream. It is short and confused but it could not be otherwise: had I stayed where I was I probably would have been pushed off that wall. And I was also starting to get caught by the gases on the other side. The retreat all the way to Chacao was painful as the repression shot at random above the streets further cartridges on the people retreating.
Since that day the repression has been much earlier than it was done. Now they try not to let the gatherings get big. And they shoot at any crowd, even at the elderly in their own march for their rights. Human rights violations are growing by the day.
This is all for now. Many more things to tell but there is also a need for time.
I'm afraid the marches have shown the only way forward for Venezuela is through violence. Yes, I know which side has all the guns. Yes, I know it didn't work for Syria.
ReplyDeleteThe real question you should be asking is this: would you prefer Venezuela to become the new Syria or a new North Korea?
Because short of an armed uprising, that's where the country is going.
Glad you posted, I was worried for you and your SO!
ReplyDeleteI can see any outcome for VZ but armed confrontation. But the citizenry has no guns from what I cans see. Maybe the military will wake up as the end of Maduro grows near, but not hopeful.
Oppo writers pointed out years ago that from the beginning a motto of the regime has been ¡Ni un paso atrás! (Not one step backwards!) Chávez was a colonel. A military officer doesn't compromise with his subordinates, but issues commands. It is thus not surprising that compromise is not in the regime's vocabulary.
ReplyDeleteWhich explains why the regime's response to an oppo-controlled National Assembly has been to deny its legitimacy at all points from the beginning.
Which explains why the response to the demonstrations has been to release tear gas- and the colectivos. The regime has no intention whatsoever of surrendering even the tiniest bit of power.
I suspect that even with the vastly reduced oil export income of recent years, enchufados/connected ones are still lining their pockets with the favorable exchange rate. A further economic collapse, such as bankruptcy due to VZLA not being able to pay its foreign debt, may reduce that money available for the enchufados/connected ones.
However,military personnel are still lining their pockets with drug money. The only way the military will turn against the regime is if the money runs out. As the drug money is not likely to run out for the military, I doubt the military will turn on the regime.
One kicker there is that the drug money is not evenly distributed. Remember the privates or corporals who got busted for stealing a goat, because they didn't have enough to eat?
If there is enough resentment in the military over the upper echelon raking in drug money while the lower ranks don't have enough to eat, the military might split.
One question: with the shortage of food in Venezuela, is there still food being smuggled to Colombia? Gasoline is still being smuggled, I'm sure.
Saber....What do I know?
"...stern international action is required...."
ReplyDeleteAs an American citizen, I am totally against my country getting involved in your affairs. Every time we did that, we were called imperialists and told to go home.
True: in Venezuela Chavistas call it "interventionism". It's pathetic
DeleteSadly Venezuela is not mentioned much at all overseas. There are too many countries with severe problems, plus each country has a share of its own. Venezuela is regarded as just another 3rd world country with some sort of crisis, few that are not Venezuela even begin to understand. In Europe, they have to worry about genocides in Syria, Africa, Russia, Greece.. in Latin America they don’t care much either, they have tons of problems themselves, Venezuela has no more good oil, they might hear a thing or 2, but that’s it. The USA has all of Latin America to worry about, except for Chile and a couple more good countries.All of it,
Even here in Miami you rarely see articles or reports about Venezuela, unless you’re hooked on social media about Venezuela or watch Bayly. The Miami Herald publishes something every couple weeks..
Do we hear about Haiti in Venezuela? Nothing, and it’s probably even worse than Venezuela. Do we hear much about Syria or all of Africa..Iraq? almost nothing. Do we know that crime in Honduras is even worse than Venezuela’s? Or that Mexico is a veritable mess?
Unfortunately people, and the world in general still is rather selfish and self-absorbed. What has any nation DONE for Venezuela? Nothing, except for a few ex-presidents talking crap. Almagro? The OEA? Nothing, all talk, and not much of it either. Only us Venezuelans, or some foreigners who once lived there, care for our country and really feel for it. Expecting miracle help and concern, and ACTIONS from other countries is naive, dream on.. These days true international intervention, and sustained humanitarian help are very rare, and there and Billions of people that need help, in poverty and sickness, hungry, with crime, dictators all over too, sorry to report.
Maybe now Venezuelans will understand why people in the US cherish their right to own guns.
DeleteMike
DeleteAmerican have never intervened directly in Venezuela. In fact, Venezuela may be the only Caribbean country never subjected to US intervention.
So it would have been difficult to send you home if you were not here to begin with.
When I wrote "...every time we did that..." I was not referring to Venezuela but to other countries in general.
DeleteUSA has intervened in Venezuela by propping up the regime through its bonds. USA has also offered refuge to most of the original rich Chavistas who now reside in USA. But unknown to Mike tge USA govt could give a rats ass abiut the average citizen and will taje its political actions to support or drive out the regime regardless what tge people care about.
ReplyDeleteUntil the rich USA bond holders are defaulted on the USA will do little. Once they are done raping Venezuela and oil rebounds the US will do much more to rid the country of the reg8me for one that will allow American oil giants to prosper. Most govts only care about re election and gettibg their friends and hence themselves set for many generations.
Foreign media seems to be ignoring most of this now.
ReplyDeleteThey're afraid to be called colonialists.
ReplyDelete