Monday, December 07, 2020

Not a victory

The first "results" have fallen but I did not follow. It was nice to spend an evening without worrying about elections results, for a change.  Instead we did the Christmas tree at home, with a live tree to be planted in the yard in January. After 3 years of grief, sickness and exile it was nice to set a small christmas decoration....

I suppose that this was a small victory for me here in exile, while unfortunately every one was met with defeat at home as I could see on Twitter this morning.

The regime first. Amazingly it conceded 70% abstention, which in itself is quite a blow for the regime. Others pollsters/observers are inclined toward an 80% abstention, suggesting number manipulation. Whatever. The point is that in spite of the grossest regime advantage, going as far as tracking down people to force them to go and vote and blackmailing them for food and cooking gas, it still had to admit a 70% abstention which at the very least means that the electoral machinery of the regime is gripped. They could not fudge the numbers, it was for all to see, even their own international "observers" would not be able to butter this up. With 70% not voting and supposedly 66% of the vote for the regime that leaves at best 20% support for Maduro. Forced support or not it does not matter for this discussion, it shows that what serious pollsters say: the regime has at most 20% of popular support. (1)

But that blow is of course no reason for the opposition to cheer. After all out of that 70% who is the real abstention and who did not vote because they preferred to stand in line to buy gas?

The numbers emitted by the CNE, if you can believe them, would give about 30% to the "opposition". Remember, the parties running "against" Maduro's PSUV are either a collection of non entities that settled with Maduro, or are bona fide opposition parties that have been taken over through judicial fiat by the regime, and thus running regime approved candidates.  Here the defeat is for those inside the opposition that disagreed with Guaido's team: they did not get away with it!  The more so if you consider that among this 30% voters there are many chavistas disgruntled with Maduro, forced to vote that voted opposition rather than than the PSUV goons. That "opposition" had months of highly publicized meeting with the regime, wanted us to swallow snakes and yet they failed to attract genuine support. 10% of the electorate, if true, for a dozen parties, well, do the math.

In short they humiliated themselves for dirty scraps. (2)

As for the real opposition that promoted abstention, they can find little comfort yesterday. Yes, the big abstention was a blow to the regime but it does not mean automatic support for the current leadership. Out of these 70% who are those who always abstain?  Those disgruntled chavistas that are waiting for something better than Maduro? People who prefer to stand in line for gas?  But I'll wait for a separate entry to write about the opposition's fate. (3)

One thing though is absolutely certain: in 2015 the opposition in already tainted elections managed to gain 2/3 of the National Assembly.  Five years later, in the middle of a devastating hyperinflation, the worst economic recession in history, millions forced into exile, lack of gas, electricity, water, food and medicine, in the middle of an ill managed pandemic, the PSUV is returned with more than a 2/3 majority. I have read hundred of history books, magazines and atlases, and yet I have never seen such a thing.   But if you think this is coherent, that this is possible, even credible, then please, do call me, I have a bridge for you in Brooklyn. Cheap.


1) there have been plenty of leaks though elections days, from Yaracuy governor, my ex-state, at 2 PM ordering his people to move their asses to get people because by then they already knew that the numbers were too low to pictures of poll workers napping on the voting tables.....

2) Had I been forced to vote I would not have done so for these fake opposition parties. Voting null is difficult with the system. Unless there was a bat crazy candidate I would have voted for a junior allied of the PSUV  Might as well get the real thing.

3) Several serious democratic countries have announced today that they are not recognizing the election. So far the only "success" the opposition can claim out if yesterday.


  1. stevemoss@email.com1:06 AM

    Daniel, your views are respected by me. How about you giving an opinion on the elections here in the USA. I feel that there is fraud going on, and wonder if it is leading to the number manipulation you see in Venezuela. You can send me an email if you wish.
    Thanks, Steve

    1. This blog has been very careful when it wades out of Venezuela's troubled waters.

      The only thing I can comment on is that the US in fact holds 50 separate elections which individual results are eventually compounded in a single number on the day the electoral college gathers. Thus I find it difficult to believe that there is such an extensive fraud that would give million of votes for Biden and an advantage on the electoral college. Very difficult to do in an open society.

      4 years ago Trump won the college while losing percentually the same difference of popular vote with Clinton, and nobody made much of a fuss about it. Are we to believe that Democrats did not perpetrate electoral fraud in 2016 but yes this time?

      What I see most, independently of any fraud committed, is an incoherent discourse from Trump and his supporters with an appalling lack of concrete evidence as to an election fraud of the massive amount that would have been required. Let's just look at a SCOTUS where even his three appointed judges refused to side with the Texas nincompoop scheme.

      The electoral system in the US certainly needs some revision, but what Trump is doing is close from despicable.


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