Same old, same old for chavismo?

 So, chavo/madurismo has all in its hands (1). No Venezuelan government in history had so many levers of power in its hands. All the formal state institutions are now controlled by the regime except a handful of state houses and town halls. But those are restricted on their means, heavily supervised and thus almost insignificant in their potential actions. What makes this one more of a dictatorship than any past one is the complete control on press and media, and the economic control that no government in Venezuela ever had. That these controls broke the country is another matter, though it happened because of these controls.

No way ahead

 On January 5 the opposition loses its last legal toe. The constitutional mandate of 5 years for the National Assembly elected in 2015 expires and as of that day all the opposition representatives will lose their seat and immunity. Not that it makes much difference, the list of those already in exile or in jail is quite extensive. The difference now is that a ruthless and vengeful regime will have no need to make up charges to arrest those still free.

The regime by itself has stopped worrying about its legality long ago. Maduro and those elected last December have not been recognized by democratic countries for quite a while. They are used to it. But at least the opposition in its quixotic quest could pretend to represent the lone legal and democratic institution left. Now in Venezuela everyone is out of legality. Quite a feat it is.

No negotiation, never

 So Maduro/regime/Cuba have everything: total control of the executive, legislative and judiciary; decisive support of the army; they count the votes; no private sector able to finance an opposition; decided support of all sorts of tyrants/strong men here and there; the acquiescent silence of a few; semi free propaganda from lefties a.k.a tankies.  Just a few democracies against and a few damning reports on human rights violations.  But who cares: any insubordination at home will be quickly snuffed now that new repressive laws will be easily enacted.

But there is one thing that the regime has that is a problem: international sanctions. I am not talking about the sanctions against PDVSA which is seen as diminishing the income on corruption schemes (the income for el pueblo is sill enough to fudge elections, and if they want more they can emigrate least they die from Covid before_1_&_2_).  The sanctions that the regime fears are those that are an hindrance to enjoy the loot in glamorous parts of the world. That is, it is becoming more difficult to hide the money or buy nice manses in the US or Spain. Never mind the risk of being arrested in doing so.

Not a victory

The first "results" have fallen but I did not follow. It was nice to spend an evening without worrying about elections results, for a change.  Instead we did the Christmas tree at home, with a live tree to be planted in the yard in January. After 3 years of grief, sickness and exile it was nice to set a small christmas decoration....

Not at a cross roads

The election that is held today in Venezuela is not bringing the country at a crossroads, it is the end of a long and painful involution. 

A way out for Venezuela: a peaceful way out for a dictatorship?

Speculating how this nightmare will end is just that, speculation. The more likely exit will be a surprise, a never seen move.  Remember that this is XXI century socialism turned into XXI century dictatorship in spite of Twitter, Facebook and what not. It will be followed by either a XXI century totalitarian state, a civil war (Syria?) or XXI century new democracy (Tunisia?).

That XXI adjective is more relevant than what you think.

Best wishes for 2018

Well, for those outside of Venezuela that is. Here? "May you survive 2018" seems as reasonable request as you may utter.

I do look like a chavista. Late December I was speculating/promising that I may be able to do a round up of 2017, having in theory more time ahead. Sure enough I did nothing. Not that it mattered much for our eggnog soaked audience. Or name your poison...

How to legally cheat

The most surprising thing about Sunday's election fraud is how unprepared the MUD opposition was. I admit that it was difficult to prepare for the out of norms regime onslaught, but still...

And yet the electoral machinery of the regime was so powerful that it may well have "won" the election.

Negotiation, not dialogue (or negation)

This past week has been eventful. It started with a new attempt at dialogue that nobody but the regime wants, to the strong words against Venezuela dictatorship from Trump, Macron, Santos, Michetti, and more, taking place at the UN general assembly.

That diner table was certainly better supplied than those of Caracas.

Resolve

Today's new sanctions on Venezuela by the Trump administration are a good excuse to write a long overdue update on Venezuelan politics.

It is easy and fun to troll the Left

Sometimes it is good to have fun writing. Bitching at the Left would do it.

Electoral mish-mash, or how to win when you lose an election

Today was a day rich in electoral content but woefully poor in electoral solutions.

From chavismo side, at another failed rally of forced supporters, Maduro went ahead and announced how the constitutional assembly will be elected. Well, half of it anyway. The part corresponding to the corporative members is still unclear but that is not a problem for chavismo since these members elected through "organizations" will go at least 80% for them, courtesy of all the political controls and apartheid like access of the non chavista population.

Marching on May 1st, Labor Day in Venezuela

As usual the following pictures are just to offer the readers the personal emotions of a protester like yours truly. Far better images and videos can be now found about Venezuela since its repression has become so noteworthy. Below, just my day.

Maduro constituent assembly for dummies

So many things today!  But before I address them in a following entry, it is urgent to explain what the constituent assembly called by Maduro truly means. About 2 hours ago in his speech at a pauperly attended chavista rally on Bolivar avenue Maduro announced that the only way to stop the coup against him was to call for a new constituent assembly, killing the jewel in the crown of the Chavez years, his so called legacy. Ending once and for all the Chavez years and entering into a brave new world. But I digress.

Why is Maduro holding such a catastrophic action when there is no food nor medicine nor jobs in Venezuela?

1) It is an excuse to annul any election until the new Constitution is voted, besides, of course, the votes necessary for the constitutional assembly and ratification. That is, the overdue governor election, the ones for mayor and municipal councils in December, and the president one for late 2018 will all have to wait for a new constitution to take hold. IN SHORT; MADURO´S REGIME GIVES ITSELF AT THE VERY LEAST TWO MORE YEARS IN OFFICE.

2) We do not know exactly how the scheme will be set but the details are already irrelevant. It is announced that at least half the constituents will be elected by "groups" and thus most likely without secret suffrage. Thus the regime grants itself, say, 45% of the seats from the start since these groups are the ones that it already controls (consejos comunales, colectivos, regime trade unions and the like). Surely, allowing for the fraudulent electoral board actions, enough of the elected seats to be elected will add to that 45% so that the regime can control the constitutional assembly proceedings. Even if fair elections would have been a rout for the regime.

3) As of 1) and 2) it is obvious that elected chavista officials will be in place, even with their term more than expired, to help controlling and manipulating the constitutional assembly elections.

4) Of course, if such an assembly is elected there will be no further control on the regime by current "institutions" so that the regime will have free rein to root out dissent and secure final approval of what will be, without a doubt, a constitution of corporativism principles, in the grand tradition of fascist states.

All of this is of course illegal in the current 1999 constitution but there is no point discussing the details now until we know for certain how will the convocation decree reads.

THE POINT OF THIS ENTRY IS TO MAKE THE READER COMPLETELY AWARE THAT MADURO CALL FOR A CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY HAS NOT A SINGLE DEMOCRATIC BONE IN IT, IT IS NOTHING MORE THAN A COARSE WAY TO FIND A JUSTIFICATION FOR THE REGIME TO PERPETUATE ITSELF UNDER THE PRETENSE OF SOME LEGALITY. THAT IS, AN EXCUSE TO AVOID FAIR ELECTIONS UNTIL KNGDOM COMES. OR MADURO (RAUL CASTRO?) DIES.
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Just for you to see what a poor attendance Maduro rallies enjoy

AMAZING
This was the skimpy attendance at @NicolasMaduro speech announcing the constituent assembly
And those woul'd be ones allowed to vote https://t.co/9jV2FnDapt

— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) May 1, 2017

And the next stop is....

OK, a lot has been going on. I cannot catch up with everything. So here follows a summary of sorts mixed with my conclusions. Sort it out if you can, I can't.

The recent crude facts

Terror in Caracas

What we have experienced today in Caracas is terror. Even yours truly got gassed, not much but truly. But I am not the one who suffered the most, by far. So I will start this entry with pictures that show clearly the terror the regime deliberately forced upon us, at an enormous risk of lives lost. Four pictures to say it all.

This picture truly represents terror. On the right what are goons of the worst kind. On the left kids, teenagers 20 something, girls, hiding for dear life away from these goons, trying not to fall in the river. Look at the picture, look at the details!!!

Unfortunately some of them had to go down and wade through one of the most contaminated streams of the world, the rive Guaire that crosses Caracas, an open air sewer. I let you imagine the consequences...

How did that happen? The repression deliberately set a trap that could have caused hundreds of death.

The main highway through Caracas was taken by the march. That highway, Autopista Francisco Fajardo, AFF, splits at the level of Chacaito in an upper road West-East and a lower road East-West. Since the march was so huge (in a post later) the two decks were densely packed. Then the regime decided to strike. In the first picture you will see the upper deck and how packed it was. Had the wind gone East West, or had there being no breeze, the suffocation would have created a stampede and people would have been trampled upon, or maybe even jumped! I suppose the regime bet on the wind so that the smell would not be so bad to avoid a stampede. But the risk was enormous, ENORMOUS!

The next picture is the view West East where you can appreciate more what I just wrote. You can also see the amount of tear/pepper gas used and that the breeze was not that strong. You can also see that the lower deck battle was strong and that the crush forced people to jump into the sewer. The crossing shown above is further down river and not seen in this picture in particular, or at least it had not started yet as people may not have been aware yet of what was happening.

Now you understand better the terror in the first picture above.

All of these are worthy of Crime Against Humanity pursuits...

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For the record, while I prepare the next post with my own personal experience of the day.

About ten minutes before the gassing started I was where the cell phone add was (white, black sash), at the end of the curve. That is where we decided to go back as it was becoming impossible to go further and people were already going back. Within minutes the police was bombing the area and and a few minutes after we had to take refuge in the street on the right in an eatery that shall remain nameless because they have already been in trouble.

The dictator's hour

So we are in a dictatorship. And this one has made new progress these past days to prove to the world it is so.  We had Sunday a totally infamous presentation by the president Nicolas Maduro where live on TV he decided who is guilty of what and how.  This based on torture.  Yesterday he went further on that path convoking the militia to Caracas to stop the massive opposition protest planned for tomorrow and forcing the army to repeat once again their indefectible oath to the revolution and its heir, the dictator.  As a bonus he promised to arm the militia, which one needs to be recalled , is not constitutional. But details are not the regime's forte.

The army today is controlling all the streets it can and all the entries to Caracas to make sure protesters do not come to fill in Caracas protests. Useless as the opposition is convoking protests in all major cities of Venezuela. You need not go to Caracas to state that Maduro is a piece of shit: you can do it in the comfort of your own city where repression awaits for you all the same than in Caracas. Decentralization at its best.

A Maundy Thursday to remember

What is remarkable today, more than the actual events, some horrific enough, is that they actually took place. For those not familiar with Venezuelan holiday habits, the Holy Week, from the Friday before Palm Sunday (viernes de concilio) until Easter is the biggest vacation time of the year. Whoever can get the week off leaves Caracas (or any provincial capital) to visit relatives, go to the beach, etc. When I was a kid there was not even a bakery open on Maundy Thursday and Good Friday. Not even movies!  TV only showed old biblical cheesy movies. Things have changed since but Good Friday still remains mostly closed. And the rest of the week still is in slow motion, but effervescent on any Venezuelan beach.

This year the regime tried to revive these habits out of political expediency: public employees got the week off. The idea was to have as many people leave Caracas as protests kept mounting. It has not worked.

Week 2 of the dictatorship: notching up the repression

I will be brief tonight. It will be all about how repression increases.

Extremely grave, international violation of human rights!
The helicopters of the repression BOMBING with tear gas canisters. https://t.co/Ewob6coBaV

— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) April 10, 2017

That is right, watch the video, now the regime drops over protesters tear gas cans, which may kill someone if hit directly. Think about that for a second. This is material for The Hague, of the best quality.

Week 2 of the dictatorship: tensing more and more

The protest was huge today. HUUGE...  Chacao filled up like in its best days.

An air of "Venezuelan Spring"

And thus was the reaction of the regime, repression more brutal tan before, a rain of tear gas but also direct shots with tear gas canisters which I understand is forbidden internationally.  Whatever it is, the regime has sent its troops not only to repress but also in too many cases to rob the people they catch taking away their cellular phones, at least.

In the evening when all was supposedly done, the regime managed to slip in a tear gas bomb in the offices of Capriles in Caracas, setting them on fire. At midnight the army with heavy weaponry presented itself at the site "for inquiry". Scare tactics everywhere, whenever.  The worry is what will we do with all those corrupt security personnel when this is over. From denazification to dechavistation.

But perhaps the main message of the day, besides the radicalization of the protest and repression, is that the opposition, without newspapers and without TV or radio is managing to pass its message very successfully. Internet will have to go.  And there is another message: outside of Caracas protest are also crescendo. And rallies in support of the regime are weak and in Caracas only.

Only repression is left for Maduro. The only questions are how far and how long.