Chavez making mistakes?

What has been happening these past days leaves anyone wondering what is really going on. Already in early September I was observing the sudden and apparently unnecessary acceleration in the leftward push of Chavez. All seemed to indicate in July that Chavez would coast quietly until December, get a 2/3 in the new National Assembly and then change the constitution early in 2006 to nail down everything once and for all. “Everything” being of course his personal unlimited power.

Not only he kept the pace, but this week-end botched Mar del Plata adventure and the Anderson case unbelievable manipulation make one wonder what is going on, really, behind closed doors. There must be some pressing issue that scares/bothers Chavez for him to reach for such provocations. I think it is too early for this blogger to speculate on what is going on, though a possible illness of Castro and the ardent wish to ensure the ideological succession, if not even the actual Cuban succession for Chavez, is a lovely idea to toy with.

The Mar del Plata summit

No matter what Chavez stated when he came back, he should not be claiming victory for the Mar del Plata fiasco. That he was the great saboteur, there is no question. That he gained something from it remains to be seen. A simple list of a few observable facts are enough.

1- His big show in the stadium did not attract anyone of importance, unless junkie/ex-junkie/junkie-to-be Maradona counts for something of substance. Even Manu Chao refused to sing for Chavez, according to the Tal Cual gossip column, “por mi madre”. However allowance must be made that Chavez did not want to share the limelight with anyone. In character.

2- The summit split alright on the free trade issue. But this is far from being a Chavez victory. The Mercosur had always been angst ridden about joining the US anyway and had been wanting to position itself on a hard bargain seat. It would be a mistake to see Chavez prodding the Mercosur. In fact, trying to pretend it did could backfire badly as Lula and Kirchner are certainly not going to like to be seen as Chavez puppets, no matter how many bad Argentinean debt Chavez buys.

3- But it gets better, almost 5 times as many countries signed to keep Free Trade talks going than to suspend them (well, actually Mercosur did not suspend the talks, just put them on the back burner). So, the legitimate question here is: all the oil spent on the small Caribbean nations through Petrocaribe promise, did it gain anything for Chavez at the summit? None signed with the Mercosur. In fact Peru, Colombia and Ecuador seem everyday closer to sign some bilateral pact, and a new non-Morales Bolivian government would join them fast.

4- The only thing that Chavez seems to be achieving is an ever deeper division of Latin America, something that he might find difficult to live with sooner than later.

5- And, does any of this benefit Venezuela? No. Any possible benefit, if you look at the chavista point of view was achieved before the summit. This one in fact could be argued to have detracted from previous supposed advantages gained.

6- And what about the troubles he brought to some countries, for nothing? Who thinks that Kirchener is going to host any important summit in the near future? It will be years before Argentina gets any really important event. Chavez rotten attitude probably forced in part the strong stand of Fox, which in turn could affect negatively his likely successor Obrador by forcing to take a position on free trade before he gets elected. This is relative as Mexico is now too tied to the US and Canada for Obrador to do much (see the EU to understand what happens when free trade starts reaping benefits). In fact, it might be an excuse for Obrador to distance himself more and more from Chavez. Rumors are that Peru’s Toledo also had a spat with Chavez. How will all of these free enmities collected play in the long run is anyone guess.

In fact Chavez pathetic attitude coming back trying to put up a winner mask reminds me of a famous La Fontaine poem, Le Coche et la Mouche, where a pesky fly thinks that her harassing of the horses and the people in the cart are what drove it out of the ditch (in English here) (1)

Ainsi certaines gens, faisant les empressés,
S'introduisent dans les affaires:
Ils font partout les nécessaires,
Et, partout importuns, devraient être chassés.

The Anderson murder manipulation

This is really getting out of hand. The more the General Prosecutor, Isaias Rodriguez, speaks the more ridiculous he looks, and the more he comes across as a liar. Simply put the official story is making water from all sides.

Carlos Herrera, an Anderson pal, was brilliant today when he said during an extensive press conference that Mezerhane would have to be really stupid as an owner of Globovision to promote that one’s campaign to uncover the murder of Anderson if he was himself involved in said murder (video) (2). He also stated in a very humorous but popular and direct way that the meetings to plot the murder of Anderson where so many people went were just beyond belief. According the sole eye witness of meetings where dozens attended, a Colombian citizen who apparently had no reason to be there, people did all to identify themselves but wear name tags and sign the attendance book. A cornered Isaias, hit from all sides limited himself to go to the state TV, be interviewed by a very compliant journalist and announce that he would not be caught dead facing real inquisitive journalists, say, at Globovision. In addition of being another one of Chavez’s whores, he revealed himself a total coward: if you have the real truth and the proofs in hand, no journalist will scare you! Of course the MVR went out with the now worn out line: “it is a media attack on the Prosecutor!”, Lara, the biggest whore of them all taking the lead in not worrying about the evidence. But thus works fascism.

SUMATE forbidden to leave the country

And speaking of fascism. 4 directors of SUMATE have just been barred from leaving the country (they had announced for months that they had no plans to “escape”). Why would Chavez order such a thing one month before the election befuddles me, just as international observers are arriving and will meet with SUMATE as one of the main representatives of the opposition parties.

Does it make sense?

Is Chavez strategy paradoxically to have the opposition withdraw all its candidates from the December elections? Indeed, in such conditions it is impossible to lead a campaign. Not only the noise of Anderson and other scandals will drown anything else, but how can you mount an effective defense of the voting act in such a situation of open judicial prosecution?

Is Chavez trying to provoke the opposition into yet another suicidal act? Can the opposition even do such a suicide if it wanted to? We are not in 2002 anymore, times have changed!

Add this to Mar del Plata, the silly socialism of the XXI century and all the things I have been reporting on for the past two months and you should start worrying about what is really going on in the halls of Miraflores. Those mistakes might be too obvious to be mistakes. Or is there something else, the acknowledgement that Chavez will not get his 10 millon voters and, trapped in a ridiculous self imposed challenge, decided that an “alternate” way should be attempted?

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1) Thus some people meddle,
Right smack in the middle
Of other people's business, acting as though
It is they who run the show.
Someone should tell them, "Just buzz off! Go!"

2) the video of Herrera interview can be found in the page of Globovision at the Grado 33 page, but by subscription. If anyone can post a free video, it would be really worth your time to watch it. It is the one dated Grado 33 07/11/05 - Parte 2

Update: Stig has posted the video at Albacom.

The Danilo Anderson investigation: trumped up cards

I have been trying to make some sense of all that has been going since Friday when the fearlessly servile Isaias Rodriguez, the prosecutor general of the nation, finally made public a long list of people involved in the murder of Danilo Anderson. It is not easy, though perhaps quite clear to perceive where this is headed. I think it would be good to look first at the obvious inconsistencies of the Friday announcements; then we could look at who might the crime have benefited and them perhaps, be bold enough to venture some conclusion.

However, no matter what I write, the gentle reader should always keep in mind that in the present state of justice in Venezuela any investigation that is carried in ANY political case is carried in such a way as the following priorities are strictly respected:

1- spare the beloved leader of the revolution of any direct or even far removed appearance of involvement (even if we ALL know that nothing of importance happens in Venezuela that is not of his knowledge or inspiration). This explains for example why the revelations were carried while the beloved leader was in Mar del Plata talking of more lofty things than a mafia murder investigation

2- damage as much as possible any person that dares to express a slightly different opinion as the one held by the powers in place. This could also explain the timing, just as the electoral campaign starts, to distract from any campaigning the opposition might be doing. Not to mention that knocking off a few oppo leaders cannot hurt the chavista cause.

The inconsistencies

According to Rodriguez, there will be a long list of people indicted at different levels for the murder of Danilo Anderson. The plot, apparently, involved dozens of people from those who executed it to those who thought about it, not forgetting those who financed it. Thus the first incongruence: with so many people involved in such a conspiracy, how come the investigation took so long?

The second inconsistency is that some of the very strong revelations that occurred in the first weeks of the investigation seemed curiously to have led nowhere, at least for the time being. I am referring here to words said by Anderson own sister and his supposedly best friend Carlos Herréra. Clearly, there was a ring around Anderson that used his investigations for extortion of some of the investigated parties. There is no doubt of that as people complained, people saw large packages of money, Anderson apparent standard of living was higher than what his paycheck would have let us suppose, and more. The incongruence here is that these facts were not duly investigated and brought up Friday, yet they have certainly not been officially dismissed, that this blogger knows of. Why?

There also some other inconsistencies but for the time been those two are enough to worry about.

Who could benefit from Anderson assassination

The worn out cliché is “look to whom the crime benefits”. Before we get into a rather long list, let’s first remind ourselves of what was Danilo Anderson up to fourth quarter of 2004.

Danilo Anderson was a radical left activist who somehow managed to get a law degree allowing him to become a prosecutor of the republic. He was named as an “environmental” prosecutor but soon became the darling of all the political prosecutions. In fact, his caseload grew to be quite impressive, making one wonder how come a single prosecutor could handle so much. Obviously since most were political cases, the hard work of objective investigation case instruction was not a major concern in a regime that was bent in destroying the opposition muscle in order to survive a problematic recall election.

But after the August referendum Anderson services were not as crucial. Still, he kept at it, open to the cameras that sought him more and more. His strange looks, one would even say sickly erotic in its coldness, confessed love for weapons and expensive sartorial habits made him a media fixture. But the fact of the matter is that Anderson had become over 2003 and 2004 the person in Venezuela who knew the most about almost anyone else that had something to hide. That also was his main appeal to the media.

How could Anderson amass such knowledge? It is not only because of the volume of cases he was managing (he had plenty of help at the office for that). It was by the importance and interconnectivity of the cases he was handling. Becoming the official investigator of the people involved in signing the infamous Carmona decree made him have access the private lives and connections of the ‘who’s who’ in the world of finances and media of Venezuela. Including many pseudo Chavez sympathizers that did not cry much on April 12 2002. It is useless to pretend at this point that he was not aware of the extortion ring that developed around him. If anything this was a useful tool for an ambitious prosecutor that came from low middle class background to accelerate his rise to the top and the riches he openly wished for. There is nothing new there, this type of situations have happened all through history. What was new here is that the Bolivarian revolution allowed it to happen. Sooner or later Anderson would get wind of all the deals that were made between the government and the collaborationist financial system of the country.

This being recalled, we can see that there would be people in both sides of the political spectrum that were interested in the elimination of Danilo Anderson. But who were they?

The Carmona decree signatories

Obviously many a signer of the Carmona decree would seem to benefit from Anderson removal. But would they, really? If they signed or were shown on TV that day, killing Anderson would at best give them some time: soon another prosecutor would charge them. No. I do not think that this is where to look for. With or without Anderson they were doomed to endure the wrath of Chavez sooner or later.

Other political players

SUMATE? Newspaper folks? Opposition leaders? The same goes for them, with or without Anderson, the Chavez courts would get them sooner or later. Not been associated with the Carmonazo was just dropping them down in the list. In Venezuela today you are either 100% with Chavez or you are a potential enemy. Thus is the nature of these regimes.

The extortion ring

This, in my modest opinion, is where we must look for. When there is an extortion system whose origin is political we do in fact have two guilty parties: the one doing the extortion and the one that for some reason accepts to be blackmailed. As we all know, once you fall into blackmail there is no telling when it will stop. Thus we could have someone who paid bullion to Anderson or his acolytes and got pissed off enough when asked for yet more money. Or we could have infighting among the extortionist as to who was going to get what. Or we could even have some governmental officials that were benefiting from or were trying to protect some of the people subjected to blackmail. This people could in turn be blackmailed, afraid that Chavez would learn about their activities and be subjected to his ire and revengeful nature. And more combinations that one can think off. A whole literary genre exists based on such situations…

The actual accused

Patricia Poleo? I doubt it. She does not have the kind of money that could be interesting to get through blackmail. Nor does she have the kind of money to pay for such an assassination. Nor is she the type of person to be involved in such thing as her life work is to uncover such political activities. In fact, that she might have been on the trail of the truth could have been enough of a reason to implicate her on trumped up charges, if anything to bar her from further digging. I am not writing this to defend Ms. Poleo, for all that I know she might have been the one that triggered the remote control of Anderson’s bomb. But simple logic makes her one of the least likely suspects or beneficiaries of such a murder.

Nelson Mezerhane? Not likely either. He did apparently have run in with Anderson on some environmental affair which was eventually dismissed. Certainly not enough to make him wish the death of Anderson. Besides as a member of a family part owner of Globovision, banks and other interests it is difficult to see how he would jeopardize such a fortune on such a murder. He could have been blackmailed by the extortionist gang but one does not see a priori how since he was not part of the Carmona adventure. And his personal fortune would certainly not have been made any safer through the murder of Anderson, in particular with a murder where we are told dozens of people are involved.

General Escalante? As a military officer that has served well the regime and who has reached high positions under Chavez, one would wonder in which way the assassination of Anderson might have benefited him, except for being handsomely paid to facilitate the explosive material used in the bomb. But are there no other ways, much safer, for a Venezuelan general to make a lot of money in these highly corrupt times? Was even general Escalante investigated in ANY of the multiple Anderson cases? Not likely as the army has its own judicial system thanks to the 1999 constitution. And if Escalante wanted to get rid of Anderson, well, as an army chief he certainly had easier means to do so than a complicated blow up downtown setting.

There is no need to proceed with this list, even as new names might come to the front. The smart reader will realize that the list is by itself incongruent with the case. And to stress that, all have announced their intention to surrender to the justice once their lawyers know what is in the dossier.

Conclusion

At this point it is dangerous to make any conclusion. After all, maybe Rodriguez did his job, no matter how much I doubt that he did an honest job. However, just the timing is suspicious by itself. Making this a big issue one month before elections is not a coincidence, in my opinion. With these people put under investigation the regime threatens directly: 1) the press, 2) the financial groups that might be considering financing an opposition campaign, 3) any sector of the army that might think about protesting what is going on in the country, 4) the civil disobedience sector (article 350!) which might be scared off or be provoked in a reaction that could only favor the regime. In addition the regime can project an image of action to its electorate which shows increasing signs of dissatisfaction.

We need to wait some more, but this blogger thing that this is only a construct, a smoke curtain, destined to hid the real truth of the Anderson murder, in the hope of mobilizing the chavista electorate for the election by giving them yet a new reason to hate the opposition. I hope to be proven wrong but I am pretty sure I am right.

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Note: this article is written without links. I can provide links to everything I have written above, even my opinions which are not particularly original and have been expressed by other people in more or less similar terms. My role here is to simply put it all together to help the reader make some sense of it all. I will only limit myself to put up in my other blog the interview of Patricia Poleo and her father appearing today in El Nacional and El Universal respectively, not because they bring that much new information, but because they are the only people so far in declaring extensively. They also show how much of a political manipulation the whole thing reeks of. I did translate also part of the Rafael Poleo interview where he explains why Chavez is a Nazi. Strong stuff.

Note 2: Added in proof. Aporrea even publishes the picture of Mezerhane as a vulgar "wanted" criminal. He might be guilty, for all that I know. But the haste of Aporrea in circulating a picture of someone not well known through the media, with a "que no se escape" is telling of the mentality that reigns in that web site. Nazism as Poleo says in his interview. I wish Aporrea would show as much enthusiam in pursuing all the corruption that is present within chavismo, with pictures.

The summit of the Americas

There is really not much I can write after reading the excellent summary of Andres Openheimer. I think in the long run there will be a block of countries that will go with the free trade and the US and a block that will remain isolated and probably stagnant. In other words, Chavez spoiled brat tantrums and the Mercosur bluff will end up benefiting the US even more in the long range. I am sure that eventually the Mercosur will find a way to deal with the US sooner or later as dealing with Europe will not be any easier. If Lula is not reelected, Chavez and Kirchner will be left holding the hat. You read it here first.

Hot Friday evening

Well, I had a very busy day and finally coming back home at 7 PM I see that a lot of things are going at the same time. Let's focus fast on the two main ones.

Chavez and Bush in Mar Del Plata

The Americas summit is being held in that Argentinean resort town. Bush, everyday more and more contested in Latin America, even by many who oppose Chavez vehemently, is meeting with protest in Argentina that are surprisingly more violent than expected. Unfortunately the politics of Argentina with the "piqueteros" fringe has become quite troubled, with basically Kirchner being a semi hostage from their constant road blocks and other disruptive activities.

Chavez, fishing as usual in troubled waters, has managed to have a "counter summit" meeting held. The whole thing smacked of a set up for grabbing headlines and one wonders how come the local host let it go that far. Is Kirchner in trouble in spite of rather good electoral results a week ago? Is Kirchner blackmailed by Chavez through SIDOR, bonds and what not? One does not what to think but one cannot help becoming suspicious. Interestingly only two figures were in attendance at that meeting where Chavez wailed for over two hours. Evo Morales of Bolivia and Maradonna where the only "luminaries", one because he does as Chavez and Fidel say in order to try to win Bolivia's coming elections and the other just because he is certified crazy. But do not think that other leftist leaders were not in attendance because they disapproved of Chavez (though I am pretty sure that Lula or Lagos would never be caught dead in such a Latin trash rally). I know the man well enough that he probably arranged things and put the stakes high enough to be sure he would be the only one on stage. He has stopped long ago sharing stages, even with Fidel Castro who is letting him take the front line more and more!

You doubt me? I have further evidence.

Yesterday I watched VTV for a few minutes (something I do no more than once a month). Well, they were calling for a support march for Chavez as he would be attacking Bush a continent away. It was a bust, El Universal reporting around 2000 people at Plaza Morelos and a friend of mine mailing me that even VTV did a very discreet coverage of the event, a sure sign that even their expert cameras could not create the illusion of enthusiastic crowds. The good news is that with a few million dollars Chavez can still get the adoring response his megalomaniacal personality does crave so eagerly: in Mar del Plata there were indeed several thousand of people cheering (while here we were stuck with another endless cadena). (1)

Indictments in Caracas

What surprised me more than this Argentinean only too predictable show was that the general prosecutor office chose today to release the first "serious" indictments on the Anderson case. I write "serious" as I am far from convinced that at least 2 of the 4 named ones had any reason to kill or help in killing prosecutor Anderson one year ago. I mean, why would Patricia Poleo want to kill Anderson, or even need to kill Anderson? She might, but really, I would want to see the proof! This is something that I have a hard time believing, and I am not the only one as Gerardo Blyde was already publicly visiting Poleo at home and declaring that this was just a whole bunch of trumped charges to try to find fall guys where other should be the ones indicted. It is to be noted that Isaias Rodriguez is on record saying that Patricia Poleo was out of the investigation, about two weeks ago.

But let's look at another declaration of Isaias. "A lot of people are involved". Huh?! So, a notorious prosecutor is killed, a lot of people are involved and only now, one year after, some apparently ludicrous charges are brought forth? Ludicrous enough that they surely could have been brought up much earlier than today? Adding further that his dispatch "cannot prove the guilt of so many people"? Does Isaias realize how his own words establish HOW INCOMPETENT his office is and what a liar he has become?

Yes, I think Byde is right. The morochas. The Halloween arrests. The Isaias out of the blue indictments. It only makes sense if we see that as a desperate last minute electoral ploy. Look at the meager crowds in Caracas today and you will know why the government is so frantically trying to create some emotion.


Surprising footnote: of all people, Carter was the one lamenting Bush bashing. He even said that Chavez was a "demagogue" and that he had no reason to attack Bush the way he did. Does Carter know more than what he tells? Nah... He was such an impartial observer in August 2004!

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1) Update: a friend of mine who works downtown Caracas, the one that serves me of guide when I must venture in this living hell, wrote me to tell me that the chavista rally was a sad drunken affair. They set up some stage with loud music (on a working day!) to try to attract people. The only result was that all stores and business around closed as they simply could not work with the racket, and the insecurity. He had to cross the area on an errand, not aware that the rally was on his path. But that did not deter him as he quickly saw that the rally was only about a block long, almost everyone in the red shirt of circumstance (read: the regular paid for attendance, not enough "spontaneous" to dilute that impression). Many, too many were drinking, some even making out, noone really paying much attention to whatever was coming from the stage. As the Latin trash rally (expression that has been much appreciated in another blog) in Mar del Plata was going on, downtown Caracas had a real trash rally of its own....

The politics of cultural ridicule in Venezuela

A political culture based on sycophancy degenerates fast. Predictably Venezuela is taking the path to adulation of El Supremo, and his sayings, as the only valid form of cultural expression, and I am being lax with the use of the term "cultural". Thus what better way to start this article but by posting now a familiar sign in the highways of Yaracuy, where governor Gimenez, barely a year in office, is creative enough to use Chavez to promote his own self image. Living around here I can assure that Gimenez needs all the placards he can post around to stop the fast degradation of his image, as he is revealing himself as lousy a governor as he was a mayor. But Chavez wanted him and that was that.


Observe the appropriate propaganda items. Chavez is on top of the mountain, modern day Moses, pointing the right way from his left hand. The choice of the Venezuelan flag colors for the welcome message. The recovery of the statue of the Yaracuy cacique with the faded colors of the PODEMOS party of Gimenez. The Bolivariano in red as the Bolivar aristocrat is now equated to a Lenin precursor. The rural suggestion of the background (not even the emblematic Sorte mountain of Maria Lionza!). And of course the element that cannot miss from the wardrobe of any self respecting Venezuelan: the heavy jacket in a tropical country, harking to the Mantuano past! (1) I wonder if Gimenez realizes how much of himself this billboard reveals.

But this new cultural revolution creates some other weird items. For example the new logo of the revolution: "Venezuela now belongs to all".

If you visit the pages of the Communication Ministry, one of the names that a propaganda ministry might want to use, you will find at the bottom a few tabs. One of them will lead you to a PDF file where you will learn all the ways to use properly the revolutionary logo, color systems, proper ministerial positioning of legends around the logo, all… It does make for quite a fascinating read to see how propaganda is made technical, how the little people are not allowed to sway away of the "right" usage of the logo, a logo acquiring now biblical proportions.

But there are more and more laws voted or being about to be voted as to what is proper culture in Venezuela. I will pass over the "Ley Resorte" which I best refer to as the "gag law". One of its dark sides is that now all musical radio stations must present half of their music coming from Venezuelan sources, and the rest from the rest of the world except that 20%, I think, must come from Latin America. The first result is that all the radio stations that I used to listen to for their mix are now boring, resorting to top international 40 and more and more obscure Venezuelan productions whose obscurity was well deserved.

I am not opposed, mind you, to the promotion of Venezuelan music. But successful Venezuelan music usually had managed to peak through no matter what. Outside of Caracas you could find, in pre "resorte" times, quite a few radio stations that had 90% and more of Venezuelan music ("llaneras", for example, audio here). Indeed, why not give a 10 or 20% of peak hour music to Venezuelan bands? I am all for it. But when 50% of all broadcasts must be Venezuelan? Please! It is only a 25 million people country and no matter how artistically and musically gifted we are, well, it just ain't enough quality musicians hanging around.

But the obsequious bureaucrats, not realizing that the real objective of the "ley resorte" is to promote, and successfully at that, self censorship of the press, are taking seriously that quota system. The other day I heard of a proposal for forcing the broadcast everywhere of native American Venezuelan tunes. I find this simply anthropologically racist. Why not give the natives the means to buy modern and performing instruments so that they can transcribe and enrich their tunes in the this brave new world of electronics? Or is it, like the Nuevas Tribus cases, that the bolibanana revolutionaries are seeing the natives as "good savage" having to live as natives with little skirts in a semi zoo atmosphere? I am pretty sure that the Yekuanas of the Amazonas would very much like to have TV and refrigerators to come back home after a day out in the jungle. (You can read the official lengthy and highlighted version of this affair here, and a different version here, and the protestation of some of the natives here)

But the ultimate in ridicule was the announcement published September 30 in El Nacional that the Philarmonic Orchestra would follow the 50-50 distribution of music mandated by the "ley resorte". At least someone realized that Sojo might not be enough to fill up 50% of the concert programs and the 50% of Venezuelan classical is understood to include Latin America composers. We are in for overexposure to Villa-Lobos and Ginastera. Really, one thing is promoting new Venezuelan talent but when the Philarmonic equates the three B to XXth century Latin America composers you start wondering about the cultural integrity of the whole business. I quote the director Martinez:

What we want is for the Philarmonic to identify with the majorities and these majorities identify with the Philarmonic.

Last time I read this type of language was when Nazism thought that the three B and the W were enough for the Reich.

But plastic arts are probably not far behind in getting their own creativity burst. In addition of all these new political posters now the Latin Parliament offices in Caracas are sponsoring a graffiti contest (they call it "mural", sounds better, as they bravely assert that graffiti will not be allowed) where Chavez must be the central figure. 5000 dollars will be spread among the best three entries which must measure AT LEAST 1.5 meters high by 2 meters long. So we will not be able to miss this developing cult to Chavez while we drive by. I can hardly wait…

So, where is the root of all this mediocrity? With the mediocre Supremo himself who is reported by CNN as bashing the Halloween celebration which has been slowly creeping in Venezuela (no word about closing McDonalds yet, something that I actually would think about supporting!) According to Chavez Halloween is part of the US culture of terror.

Chavez called Halloween a "gringa," or North American, custom.

"Families go and begin to disguise their children as witches," Chavez said. "That is contrary to our ways."

Which as usual is totally false, one of the now innumerable Chavez lies. I could point out to the world famous festival of Yare (scroll down for the English text story).

Politically Correct ghoulishness?

You can see clearly that the masks worn are the devil imaginary in Venezuela which in my humble opinion is pretty much the same as the imaginary evils that are represented by Anglo-Saxon witches (which by the way have long been adopted in the Venezuelan imaginary).

This display of bad taste, bad culture, general ignorance, would not be so bad if it were limited only to what we can get as of now on walls and air waves. The perverse effect of these initiatives will be the same observed everywhere, from the Buena Vista Cuban music long forgotten, to the book burnings of Germany circa 1935. Any good Venezuelan production will be shun: the ones that will get promotion are the mediocre efforts of the ones who wish to flatter Chavez with their works or those who are already recognized as Chavez supporters. Unfortunately it certainly will not stop that as the cultural utterings of the Supremo might have weird and dangerous consequences as people going to jail for Halloween political pranks (here and here).

When mediocrity leads mediocrity it can be scary when that mediocrity has shooting power.

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1) In colonial times only the rich were allowed to wear a coat, manto, for some obscure reason. Thus the term "mantuano", coat wearer, a spiteful way to call the rich. But no politician would be caught dead without a coat except Chavez who is like Churchill in his wearing of all sorts of disguises.

Hat tip to the reader who sent me the CNN article. I looked and looked but could not find the original mail to post the proper acknowledgmeent. You know who you are!

Satellites, iron pills, real poverty statistics, death to Bush, and please, pass me some Venezuelan made valium

Well, the week started with a bang. It should have been so as El Nacional (subscription) did publish some statistics on Venezuelan poverty last Sunday that put to rest any type of attempt at the Venezuelan statistic agency (stress on agency as "agent manipulateur"), INE, to change the way poverty is counted. Indeed, by changing its ways INE has demonstrated that the great bolibanana revolution has been able to make and unmake poor people at dizzying rates! Only war times can make poor as fast as in Venezuela, from 14 to 25% in barely two years of Chavez administration (and starting, by the way, in 2nd semester 2001, before all the political troubles, see the little opalescent jewel added). And it unmade them from 24 to 10% in barely one year. Even Asian Dragons did not do as well in their better years. The graph appears as a PDF object in the INE page and I have extracted that picture were I added some comments. In other words, even when they cheat, they cannot do it right and it shows blatantly.

Extreme poverty (E group below?) in yellow. In blue poor "not extreme"!

But the CECA study published Sunday in El Nacional seemed a little bit more solid than the INE, and certainly more in tune with what I see in the streets. CECA focuses, at least as published, on the socio economic sectors E and D, which are the very poor and poor respectively (supposedly those who hold low pay wages). Well, together they represent 86% of the population (which seems high to me and this commentator). At any rate, according to CECA, in strata D and E only 32 % of people belonging there had three meals a day (2/3 eat only one or twice a day!); most spend their income on food and public transportation; 31% only were employed while 25% worked in the informal sector and a whopping 44% were jobless. Only 2.1% reported a monthly income of more than 240 dollars, that is, MORE than the minimal wage. Obviously 76% of them used the Mision Barrio Adentro for very basic Cuban sponsored health care (they cannot even afford public hospitals as Norwegian TV viewers know) and 72% went shopping for rice and beans at Mercal, subsidized state food. A further commentary on that survey pointed out that if the poor were still poor, there was some new 55 000 rich in Venezuela, almost exclusively military, public employees and associates of the government. The so called "boliburguesia" in numbers is getting into the select few of the A-B strata counted at 3.8%. That, I have observed myself. (1)

While people were left to sort out on Sunday as to which of CECA and INE were the closest to the truth, and how long until they moved to D or E, the news kept apace. The latest initiative of state interventionism is now the barely disguised attempt by the state at recovering SIDOR, the steel concern privatized just before Chavez came into office. As a private company SIDOR seems to have made some comeback from the "in the red" days, though a few problems were still around. But of course that meant that steel had to be sold at international prices and Chavez does not like that. If our gas is cheaper than bottled water why should we pay for steel?

To bring further confidence in foreign investors who certainly did not need to read about SIDOR problems in the newspapers, in addition to the land seizures, it was announced that the sales taxes and the bank movement tax (you pay a tax whenever you withdraw from your account in Venezuela) would not decrease in 2006. Certainly in Venezuela electoral campaigns are hugely populist affairs and even with an oil barrel at 50 USD Chavez needs all the money he can.

But these bad numbers and lousy administration do not stop Chavez from launching unrealistic projects in a country were indigence keeps going up, no need of statistics to see that. This morning as I was leaving for work an indigent was camping in front of the building door asking for clothes. That was a new one for me: begging used to be done at street corners, but I suppose that increased competition forces indigents to go to residential areas. The answer of Chavez to that? A noon time cadena (2) to announce the construction of the first Sino-Venezuelan satellite (in English here) . A satellite for Venezuela? Why? How are indigents going to afford the satellite dishes for signal reception? The picture of the model is priceless in its cheapness and the articles accompanying it even more so. Both the state radio and the information ministry article allow the sharp mind to realize that the Venezuelan participation will be minimal and that only a few Venezuelans will be "trained" in China ( read, will watch Chinese technicians and eat dim sun while watching). None of these articles mentions the lengthy and almost savage cadena (I was home for lunch); but Union Radio does report the cadena and also that the real use will be for the army to control better the country (you know, opposition movements controlled through satellite and the Bush invasion too).

To close this economic delirium tremens, Chavez also announces fiery speeches at the America summit in Argentina, where he will do all what he can to sabotage Bush visit there. Apparently Chavez is going to Mar del Plata to bury imperialism (just as he buys Chinese wares, helping along the renewed Celestial Empire, by the way. He needs a speech writer!). I wonder what president Kirchner, the gracious host, thinks of that coming show as Argentina negotiates discretely with all sorts of International agencies and is getting back into the international markets that Chavez wants to trash.

Whew!

But if you think that internal politics could not match this bevy of economical news, you were wrong. As the electoral campaign for the legislature is just starting, the presidential party, the MVR, with its now legal, if unjust, morochas, a party who is planning to get 80% of seats thanks in large part to the complicity of the CNE, is already attacking the meager opposition effort. Apparently the opposition will not even be able to paste posters as its supporters caught doing so will go to jail. However the trumped up charges of the overzealous public servants (?) who arrested these Primero Justicia activists yesterday were not enough and they are already out on bond (in English here) . Still, the message is clear, the MVR with all its built in advantage is looking for terror tactics, for any ways that will shut up the opposition once and for all. Some democratic group! The interesting question is in fact why is Chavez, and MVR, so afraid of PJ? Because the nation's controller, unable and unwilling to sanction all the corruption seen around, did manage to find a minor misdemeanor in the accounting of Chacao Mayor that could inhibit him from running for office for 6 years! (English here). No one else in Venezuela has got more than 3 years since Russian (or is that Ruffian?) assumed his post 5 years ago. And Chavez, just by the FIEM case three years ago should actually be dismissed just as Carlos Andres Perez was dismissed in 1993 (3). This political manipulation is so obvious that one is left to wonder: why are MVR and Chavez so afraid of PJ? Chacao Mayor rules the best managed and wealthiest town hall of Venezuela, where the new 55 000 chavista millionaires are trying to buy expensive condos. Just next door of crumbling downtown Caracas whose two elected managers, Barreto and Bernal, are so incompetent that Chavez just put a general to administer the downtown core section! (4)

Indeed, Primero Justicia is demonstrating that without the flood of money that Chavez is wasting, just with what they collect on local taxes and what the national budget is FORCED to allocate them, they do a much better, much more efficient job, if not perfect, than the Caracas popular district where pro Chavez mayors who get boatloads of money waste it as well as any appointed chavista official. And mediocre people cannot stand semi successful ones, even if they can buy fancy (?) satellites from China.

Pass me a valium, please! Even if Chinese generically made!

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PS:
1) Boliburguesia. The nouveau riche of the bolivarian revolution. Mostly military personnel, contractors with the state, public "servants" and all those who serve as a cover for the laundering of corruption monies.

2) Cadena. The forced simultaneous broadcast on all the TV and radio stations of Venezuela of Chavez lengthy speech whenever he feels like it. With no right to reply for the people attacked by Chavez; no jourtnalist asking questions; no nothing. Plain propaganda, uncompensated for the media, at the government's will, even during electoral campaigns. As unfair an use of the media as it can be imagined short of closing outright the private media.

3) FIEM case, "malversacion". The unauthorized change in the usage of budgeted items in the administration. Chavez a few years ago shifted money to "supposedly" pay public servants. Todate we do not know exactly were those billions went. This is a violation fo the Venezuelan law and cost Carlos Andres Perez his presidency. But in Venezuela a minor ministry employee was made, just recently, the fall guy. Well, Lopez of Chacao did the same thing when the governmet did nto send the moeny to pay for the firemen, the police guys and other municipal employees, all documented to the penny. But apparently he will not be allowed to have a fall guy. Comptroller Russian is becoming one of the biggest Chavez whores!

4) Downtown Caracas. A crumbling district, under dirt, garbage and lack of elemental maintenance, to the vociferous complaints of Chavez himself. Not to mention that street vendors occupy now all the main streets of downtown where tourists cannot go anymore. It smells now permanently of urine, even during the rainy season.

A debate in Venezuela on sold out courts and useless politicians, all differ but all agree

The week-end has passed since last Thursday, for this blogger the official date of the final loss of any right to redress in any Venezuelan court. At least as long as you contest anything that matters for Chavez.

The opposition is not getting over that shock, and only some such as Julio Borges on Sunday night, show any combativeness. In fact, what we should have is a general outrage that would finally offer a strong common front to vote or not to vote in a month. Any option is valid as long as we all go for it. But this is not going to happen.

Three op ed pieces published today do show us how the Venezuelan few thinkers (there are some, you know, and all against Chavez who only attract sycophants unable of any original thought but full of original tricks, funny I write that on Halloween!). In these pieces we can see how the thought process is evolving, and how a few truths are written without any contemplation. Note, all published in subscription sites thus I have posted the articles in my Documents on Venezuela section (sorry, too much to translate I only will do some essential parts)

Armando Duran curses AD

His OpEd Piece is justly titled "Ramos Allup and the trumped up cards". Indeed, Ramos Allup, the leader of AD tried to have all of us believe that he had a genuine chance to have the constitutional court rule against the Morochas. When we all knew that any ruling would be whichever ruling Chavez thought would favor him.

Yet Armando Duran points out that in spite of the foretold death Ramos coherent legislative mind and his reasonable oratorical skills were enough to unhinge the assembled mediocrities (all branches of the judicial and electoral system of Venezuela!) and force them to reveal their lackadaisical status when they all scrambled to reapet, badly, the official line when before Ramos speech they still pretended to be in a formal and real judicial hearing.

However the verdict is harsh:

How is it possible that decades of political activities ended up in an act of such naiveté (of Ramos going to court)?

The sketch only served for the regime to legalize in front of the international community the death of proportional representation of minorities.

This is the strong point of Armando Duran: Ramos Allup did help Chavez. How? By attending this trumped trial he not only offered a veneer of respectability at what is a violation of all of our political tradition bent on avoiding the return of dictators, but he basically shut up the opposition of any fraud claim it might have for December. Just as accepting all the electoral violations pre-August 2004 basically forced international observers to accept the referendum result.

With this opposition direction, truly Chavez is in no risk. He might feel threatened by a possible social explosion, or an hypothetic fidgeting of some sectors of the armed forces, but not by political parties ready for anything for not losing a token electoral representation. Of this Chavez has been certain for years. A certainty that allows him to act in any moment with total impunity. And which allows him to say to the world that there is democracy in Venezuela and that if he wins all elections it is his opponents fault, unable to gain the trust of the voters.

[and commenting on the divorce between opposition voters and opposition parties]

(Since August 16 2004) paralysis and abandonment, the break up has been irreversible. Maybe if what happened in court last Thursday had generated a strong reaction from the opposition, such as withdrawing their candidates, if at least they would have declared that they would consider that option, there would have been the possibility to fix up things. Instead having accepted the result as Saint Francis simple throws to the ground the possibility of constituting a formidable opposition front. That was the only real reason to go to court over the morochas, to use the abuse of power of the High Court Not doing so condemns anti chavismo to a dark ostracism. That is why Rangel praised Ramos Allup and AD: to accept participation in a trumped electoral game is to even give up the right to complain. For the greater glory of Chavez, courtesy of Ramos Allup and the opposition political parties.

Quite clear, no?

Ibsen Martinez criticizes the abstention movement (and the opposition "elites")

Ibsen Martinez is one of my favourite OpEd writers but too long and windy to translate. In fact, his articles are full of intellectual and cultural references, a little bit like my posts but at least a league ahead of my modest efforts. Today he has a long winding article on critical journalism which ends up, at the end, and as usual, in a point that often is not anticipated by the reader. Today's object of the affection of Ibsen Martinez is Alma Guillermoprieto, noted bilingual Mexican journalist. Apparently she has decided to write on Venezuela and the result is not flattering, for the opposition at least. There are two assays from her in English that seem to be required reading. The last two paragraphs of Ibsen Martinez article.

A short while ago Adrián Liberman, clinical psychologist and unavoidable columnist of this paper [El Nacional], published in this very page, a devastating moral portrait of a good portion of the middle class, which is at the same time an iconoclastic dissection of the pathological and unproductive direction on how until now these middle and high classes have understood and lived the politics in a country which, no matter how much it might upset us, will not go back to the status quo prior 1998. [note to the reader, a few years ago Martinez by then already opposing Chavez, did not think that 1998 was as much a change as 1899 or 1946, but Ibsen perhaps suffer from the same frailties we all suffer on occasion].

These classes, self pleasing in the moral question and dim witted on the citizenship duties, want to relieve now that the abstention movement is going to be the neutron bomb that Hill finish Chavez, World do good learning from the prodigious hidden truth detector that Alma Guillermoprieto has seen for the immediate future of Venezuelans.

If anyone has those articles, please send them in for posting!

Teodoro Petkoff tells us our job is still cut out for us.

In an editorial much more constructive than the very appropriate and deserved lashing by Duran, or the lengthy but amusing musings of Martinez, Petkoff goes straight to the point. He starts by reminding that not even two weeks ago actually the CNE had was on record against the Morochas. And then starts with his opening salvo.

The constitutional hall of the TSJ did not produce any surprise. A tribunal where the magistrates are among others individuals as "tramparente" Carrasquero [the manipulator of the CNE pre referendum], the bodacious Velazquez Alvaray [the one of the constitutional reform to allow ad infinitum re-election of Chavez and more powers to him, by the way] and the ineffable Cabrerita [pejorative diminutive for Cabrera who apparently has never voted in any decision that could cast any feeble limit on the bolibanana revolution] would have never ruled against the will of Yo El Supremo.

We all new that, Ramos Allup knew that.

What the ruling ratified is the depth that autocracy-- the concentration of all public powers in the fist of the president-- as a defining trait of the government.

See your blogger comments on that a few days ago. Bloggers do not have to wait for Mondays to publish editorials. But Teodoro goes ahead and says that it was still worth it to go to court.

Each time that it is possible to put forward, in front of its own organizations, the authoritarian, the autocratic, the militaristic and corrupt nature of the governments, we must do so. This is never a waste and underlines the will of the country not to surrender, not matter how adverse the circumstances.[snip] A democratic strategy to confront chavismo feeds on such acts, no matter how irrelevant they might seem short term.

And now, back to earth.

Before Thursday the morochas were valid, and since that day the TSJ kept them valid. There is no change. Whomever wanted to vote before the TSJ decision ahs no reason why to change his mind.

[snip] To vote or not to vote is a political decision and not a moral or ethical one. In the present conditions of unfairness and obscene official advantage, the more so; it is more efficient that political parties develop an alternative, to put on trial the incompetent administration, to denounce and stand up to unfair advantage […] instead of believing in pregnant birds of the 350 [civil disobedience within the law, as per the 1999 constitution] of which political deficiencies we have enough proof. But there is one thing, parties and candidates must run their campaign, because asking to vote and not campaign, nor organizing an electoral machine would be as bad as calling for abstention. And energetic campaign is the best electoral motivator.

Ah! Teodoro is the man!

So there you have it, the hawk, the dreamer and the pragmatist. Pick your choice.

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PS: I cannot resit also posting the words of Ibsen Martinez on Juan Forero

The worst of these repeat offenders "correspondents" might be Juan Forero, the hound that the New York Times sends us regularly. With his operation base in Bogota, Forero is only a short hop from Venezuela whenever there is some ground disturbance, and invariably sends his readers something that, believe it or not, seems coming from the press offices of Miraflores palace or the hard drive of Ignacio Ramonet.

Only Ibsen can ridicule so elegantly Forero, Ramonet, and chavista propaganda. And be so right by the way. The new York Times lowered to the level of Le Monde Diplomatique by one who certainly used to be a reader! I love it!