Friday, January 14, 2005

More fraud vote evidence in Venezuela

OK, so this was shamelessly to grab your attention. But I was reading this article in the Wall Street journal as to how the tight election for Governor in Washington state is so close, so controversial, that there is talk that the courts might just cancel it and force a new election.

Here, an interesting excerpt:
In Washington state, the errors by election officials have been compared to the antics of Inspector Clouseau, only clumsier. At least 1,200 more votes were counted in Seattle's King County than the number of individual voters who can be accounted for. Other counties saw similar, albeit smaller, excess vote totals.
Imagine that! And the Carter Center was unmoved here when we saw more voters in some districts than people actually living in that district!!! And let´s not forget that they do not have FARC guerilla voting in Seattle.

But it gets better:
King County elections director Dean Logan, Mr. Huennekens' boss, also concedes the discrepancy between the number of ballots cast and the list of people who are recorded as voting. Even though the gap is 1,200 votes, he says, "that does not clearly indicate that the election would have turned out differently." Are voters supposed to trust an election merely because it can't "clearly" be shown to be hopelessly tainted?
Yes, indeed, are Venezuelan supporters supposed to trust an election merely because the Carter Center says that there is no need to count ballots? Because a lousy resentful shrink looks at us in the eyes from the TV to tell us that there is no fraud and if people keep talking of fraud he will take them to court.

But that is not all. Read and think of all the calculations made or reproduced by Venezuelan bloggers:

Much of the evidence uncovered on King County's flouting of election laws first appeared on Soundpolitics.com, a blog run by computer consultant Stefan Sharkansky. A former liberal who worked for Michael Dukakis in 1988, Mr. Sharkansky calls himself a "9/11 conservative mugged by reality." He uses his knowledge of statistics and probability to illustrate how unlikely some of the reported vote count changes are. He also uncovered the fact that in Precinct 1823 in downtown Seattle, 527, or 70%, of the 763 registered voters used 500 Fourth Avenue--the King County administration building--as their residential address. A full 61% of the precinct's voters only registered in the last year, and nearly all of them "live" at 500 Fourth Avenue. By contrast, only 13% of all of King County voters registered in 2004.
Gee, maybe I will write to that blogger! He will have a field day with the Venezuelan "irregularities".

But see, in the US there is a court system. There is an independent judiciary. There are liberals that are not sandalistas. There are people that think for themselves and value truth above everything.

But in the US there is also a now decrepit ex president that made a foundation that is actually doing now more bad than good and who lost any credibility somewhere between Florida and Caracas. He probably was sent to Palestine because the result there was known well in advance.

But in the US there is also political parties that fight hard, that do not give up and mostly that do not sell the fur before killing the beast. Today the GOP fights but it was the Dems in Minnesota in 1962 (see end of quoted article), both have real laws to hang on and real umpires to apply them. Not sold out thugs and lousy soldiers to apply their orders and cash at the register. Not an opposition who thinks that wishful thinking and Plan A are enough.

Thursday, January 13, 2005

Granda, a study in grandiloquence

The good thing about various bloggers from Venezuela is that we all have multiple interests. While yours truly meditates on the downspiral of rural Venezuela, Miguel pursues the Granda affair diligently. Quite a wonderful story, wich not only establishes unequivocally the internal complicities of some sectors of the Venezuelan government with the FARC (after 6 years in office they cannot claim that Granda roamed freely in Venezuela because of the Adecos) but allows us to watch Chavez and his administration at its most restrained bombast.

Just sit down and pop some corn in the microwave.


The opposition "leadership" is not seeing the light

Tonight I was listening to Alo Ciudano and Julio Borges, leader of Primero Justicia, PJ, was on.

Primero Justicia has been making significant work on trying to reach out and build a party. The effort has been serious and has shown some positive results as its percentile results are improving. For a party who does not have a charismatic dirt cheap populist leader, it is not an easy way. Historically a strong and solid political party takes at least one decade to build. Constructs that are based upon a single leader usually disappear with the leader, the notable exception, unfortunately for Argentina, is Peron's movement. But I digress.

Borges was going on with his litany of building organization, justice, etc, themes that I can only agree with. Perhaps trying to educate us into accepting the fact that Chavez was in for a while and that the only option left was the long road.

However the format of the show implies that calls are taken without screening, a main reason why chavista pols avoid that show in spite of the continuous invitations of the host.

Some woman called and asked for what happened on the week that followed August 15, why the opposition had such a weak claim, why did Ukraine (she said Romania) succeed where Venezuela failed. Well, I was rather disappointed by Borges reply. It was something along the lines of "when the history of that moment will be written we will know that different currents where going through the opposition, some wanted to wait, some wanted to go to the streets, some wanted to wait for Carter" and then moved on, quickly, again on what PJ was doing to organize, etc, etc...

There are two things wrong with that at the first glance. First, it does not correspond to the time frame as the infamous Carter declaration was at midday on the 16. By say 3PM, it was clear that some strong action was needed and NONE came. Second, division within the opposition are not an exemption from at least declaring, and even threatening to act. In all fairness PJ was about alone in declaring, but as void of action as the other guys.

But if we examine further, Borges is not being candid. Again, he fails to take a stand on the possible fraud, tries to dodge the issue. Does he not know by now the damage that this does to his cause? How long until he realizes that the opposition electorate, at least 40% according to the dubious chavista figures, is unmotivated because at this point the opposition leadership has not been able to say at the very least "well, there was fraud but we cannot prove it so we will move on and next time demand a better electoral system". After all Granda, the recently arrested FARC terrorist, did vote on August 15, a perfect evidence of at least one fraudulent vote for the chavista side, and a perfect opportunity to start a campaign to that effect. But we did not even get that tonight. Just pious words of a political party thought about being the most creative of the lot and showing that it might not be so. (1)

The issue is very simple. Whether there was fraud in August, Chavez has won anyway, even if by fiat. The responsible thing is to either accept it and move to a different strategy, even claiming fraud. Or hit the streets with protests. But not that limbo in which the opposition leadership, or what is left of it, has entrapped itself. The Venezuelan opposition DOES want to know what happened the week of August 15, no matter what did happen. Political parties cannot hope to rally their troops until they come clear with the tale. Dodging an old lady genuine question like tonight does nothing to help their cause.

== == == == == == == == ==

(1) Unfortunately today's criticism falls on PJ as the other parties are even more reticent in going to TV. AD leader Ramos Allup was reported in November to be negotiating to try to improve the retirement plan of National Assembly representatives, a confession of part if I have ever seen one. If PJ seems weak, well the other political groups are dead.


Wednesday, January 12, 2005

Mendelssohn and Hato Piñero

I have been arranging my extensive CD collection which lead me to play some of those long forgotten CD. This afternoon it was Mendelssohn "Reformation" Symphony. This might not be the best symphony of this rather underrated composer. The 5th popularity has suffered from being a "heftier" work, more intellectual, less crafted and vital than the "Italian". As if trying to encompass the reformation movement in music were possible. Still, the last movement opening is one of the most stirring moments of the repertoire, and a powerful musical image of the liberation of the spirit, no matter what religious connotation is associated with.

I started to have the odd notion that it was rather subversive to play such a symphony in San Felipe. After all it was an ode by a man of Jewish origin to the most important religious reformation movement. For better or for worse, the rivalry between the two Christian creeds was going to be at the root of European technical and political superiority, even if the 30 Years War was a rather heavy price to pay. Not to mention what would happen to Jewry in Europe. But it must have been quite an intellectual effort for Mendelssohn to accept fully his German soul through the celebration of Luther's work. So many contradictions for the sake of civilization.

Because this is all what it is about, what civilization is. I do not know why but as I was listening again to it, I was recalling images of countryside Yaracuy chavistas herded in open air trucks to some political meeting. Some with bottles of booze in hand, most disheveled and not only by the wind. I wondered what was the equivalent scene in the late Weimar Germany. I wondered about Luther rallying first the German peasants only to send later the German petty lords crush them. It is always a good time to think about these clichés associated with civilization changes, and how those who undertake them do not necessarily get the expected result.

I am not sure if the "Reformation" symphony is heard by those intervening the hato El Charcote this week end, or if the host suites of hato Piñero do pipe Mendelssohn on occasion. But certainly watching the scenes of this week end one knows that we are getting further away than closer to civilization and culture.

Hato Piñero might have been a highlight of civilization in the Llanos, something as removed from Doña Barbara as possible, but still keeping some of the natural wonders of the Llanos. I have never been there, the idea of waking up at wee hours to go in the wild find anacondas to pet them not being my idea of a good time. But this has not stopped me to admire the initiative of the Branger family, original owners of the extensive hato to transform with the help of dedicated naturalists the hato Piñero into a biological station visited by scores of tourists from afar, who do not mind the rustic lodgings and the on occasion rough visiting tours.

Probably the hato was not particularly profitable, the literature indicating that up to 80% of it is under water during rainy season. Bad soil probably, mostly fit for extensive ranching. But that only adds to the value of the experiment which was the unique combination of rational and moderate agricultural exploitation with recovery of a large area for its ecological preservation. The final work of civilization when it finally arrives. I wonder if some of the lefties "ecologists" that visited the hato are aware that Piñero is marked for "intervention" by the Cojedes governor, avenger of real or imaginary offenses. Why Piñero? Aren't there other more productive areas that should be of interest first? Why not make it a National Park right now if "revenge" against the Branger family is sought? Who wants Piñero?

I think the fate of hato Piñero under this regime will be one of its litmus test, the symbol by which we will be able to judge its commitment to ecology, preservation, civilization.

Meanwhile I can seek further solace in music to shelter me from the crudity that surrounds our lives.

Tuesday, January 11, 2005

Land seizure and the deliquescence of the Venezuelan state

These past days have been rich in demonstrations that the Venezuelan state is sinking fast into some type of tribal units ruled by weapons. Sunday's papers reflected the marvelous contradictions in which we live, making Gabriel Garcia Marquez an illuminated amateur.

I wanted to start with the latest on the seizure of El Charcote, that X-thousand acres ranch in Cojedes part of a group of ranches owned by British interests. I use the X as a number since the true extent of the land owned, and by whom, has become the mystery du jour. And the source of quite a fight even before the Brits are expelled in what is the new Cojedes parody of independence war, with flown in chubby governor and all.

Apparently the governor of Cojedes, Yanez Rangel, had to come by helicopter as the roads were blocked by chavistas. Blocked by chavistas? Well, it turns out that there are two groups of people that want to lay their hands on the Charcote estate. Those that already grabbed a few acres 4 years ago, pretty much ruining the production scheme of the property. And those that the governor wants to give the land to, some cooperatives whose origin and function (and control) is not quite clear. However, those that have been sitting in on the land apparently will have none of it and accuse Yanez of trying to plug in his friends.

Where have I read such stuff? Oh! I remember! I wrote a few days ago about that possibility myself! It seems that I am not the only one that suspects that the cooperatives are only a front for some chavistas to make good with land. You set the cooperative. The cooperative conveniently goes bankrupt a few years later and some governmental official buys its land for a fraction of its real price. Incidentally that standard operating procedure has not been invented in Venezuela but seems to have a promising future here.

Miguel has already posted a few pictures to illustrate this high in color moment. But there is one that I want to repost in this page. (And by the way his translation of an interview of Carlos Machado Allison musing on the technical nonsense of it all is a must read)



These were the soldiers sent. To control what? The docile management which has claimed that it wanted justice, which has already had to fire 60% of its personnel as the invasions have maimed production by 2/3? What gun power could possibly have 50 rural workers against even the body guards of the Cojedes governor? No, these "tonton macoutes" were sent because the factions between Chavismo forced the governor to come by helicopter. I find this picture quite symbolic of the degradation of the public power in Venezuela when a small state governor needs the Army to protect himself from "his" followers.

But if you want more degradation of public institutions you can read the editorial of Teodoro Petkoff coming back from vacation today. And what a come back! This lengthy editorial (posted here in Spanish) explains how Danilo Anderson has come from the revolution first martyr from a putative victim of a war between extortion groups. The only thing that remains to be settled, or so it seems when one reads the editorial, is whether Anderson was part of one of those rings, whether he was just a conduit for information and notoriety, whether the General Prosecutor knew anything (and, this blogger adds, whether Isaias Rodriguez was crying on Danilo's remains at his funeral or crying on something altogether different). All of this while Isaias Rodriguez acolytes are investigating who gave inside information to the noted investigative journalist Patricia Poleo instead of verifying whether what she denounces is true or not.

To close this post two articles quite telling on what lays ahead of us. Michael Rowan, in English, muses on the unstoppable wave of corruption due to the nature of the regime.
Corruption is reduced by institutionalizing independent checks and balances in the ministries, monopolies and enterprises of government, reducing the discretion of individual actors with great power, and eliminating secrecy altogether. Corruption is a function of the system, not the people who use it.

And yet another delicious article by Manuel Caballero yesterday in El Universal. There he muses on the declaration of totally discredited Pedro Carreño (of Montesinos and Direct TV fame) where he said that Chavez was the only "indispensable" within the MRV.
This is not only a confession, it a whole philosophy of power. Chavez is not only the coat which tails allowed to reach parliament and other offices people who not even in their most delirious dreams ever thought of reaching places of influence for which they were not prepared nor ever bothered to get prepared for; but if it were not for Chavez that political group would not exist.


I trust the reader to be able to tie it all up together.

Sunday, January 09, 2005

Alo Presidente is back

The Sunday talk show of president Chavez is back in the air after an interruption of a couple of months "for redesign". The show used to be an itinerant affair that lasted from 3 to 6 hours where Chavez occupied the front scene, only relieved on occasion by some video or some "guest" making some form of expose. Alo Presidente was of course a must see of the political class as most of the maneuvers of the regime were announced previously from its set.

The new format?

Well, the step to a formal TV show with Chavez as the host has been crossed (a dream come true?)





In that picture you can see the central desk (altar?), a huge globe where I can imagine Chavez will describe the numerous excursions that the intends to make to preach his anti Bush gospel, a fancy flat screen TV for videos on the right, and a large Alo Presidente inked on the floor with plenty of red.

The accompanying article in El Nacional let us know that the show will now be always broadcast from Miraflores palace (no more visit to the provinces?). There is a set to show entertainment such a musical performances, a set for interviews, a toll free number and a web page (with plenty of pictures with children). And of course all these changes in format come after "consultation" with the audience, err, I mean the people.

After I recover from that one, I will try to cover the real important news of the week end...

PS: added later. I checked the Venpres web page for more pics of today's show. I was not disappointed by the photo gallery. I have picked, in utter disbelief, two.

The first one is the bench where the ministers must sit through the show. Chavez likes very much to have a few ministers with him wherever he goes. But on Sunday most of then tend to be there (or else, we are told). What a perfect way to illustrate the autocratic style!!!!




The second one speaks for itself. Maybe it is made for television, but really....




PS2: Much later. Truth is stranger than fiction. I have added this one because of the comment by Thomas. The interactive blog where the audience drives the input!!!!!





And I found tonight this poster of the famous Chaplin icon movie, ever so actual, "The Great Dictator". Sorry, I could only find the complete Chaplin with the French title for the movie, in English it was only part Chaplin and part Paulette Goddard :-)




Disclaimer: any coincidence with real life is purely accidental and never intended by the writer of this blog. It is well known that truth is stranger than fiction. Besides it was the idea of one of the readers (see comment section), the writer not being smart enough to come up with anything that hilarious.


Saturday, January 08, 2005

Land seizure in the bolivarian revolution

A rather long essay on the Venezuelan land distribution

The "land problem" has acquired a new urgency over the holidays. To believe the official story one would be lead to think that hordes of starved peasants, landless, desperate, are roaming the country is search of land so they can plant a little bit of yucca and plantain so their children will not starve.


Passing fast on the obvious comment that how come that after 6 years in office Chavez has peasants starving, the truth of the matter is far distant from the chavista version of the situation. It would require a book to describe all what is going on in the Venezuela country side. Thus, to simplify matters I will split this in three parts. First I will refer the reader to a recent post by Miguel who describes quite well some of the judicial aspect of the problem. Then I have translated the editorial of El Nacional from yesterday (with the original Spanish there ). This is accompanied with rather lengthy notes to explain in more detail some aspects of the problem, as they are brought forth by the text. Finally I set up a table on the land distribution as far as we can know right now in Venezuela. This way the reader will be able by itself to decide what to think. With my very own opinionated opinion at the very end.


Since it is a rather long assay I have added internal links to facilitate circulation between the different sections.


= = = = = = =


El Nacional, Thursday January 6 editorial, 2005


(Foot notes sources mostly from Diccionario de Historia de Venezuela, Fundación Polar, 1997, ISBN 980-6397-37-1)


The Charcote and its problems


The manner in which the bolivarian regime has been dealing with the land tenure problem has allowed for many ambiguities from the very beginning of the revolution. It has been more than five years since the government has promised a study of the essential lands to know where they are and which ones are of state or private ownership. It is a matter of order, of legitimacy for a state to talk with authority and trustworthiness. This was not done. The regularization of land holding is an old and dramatic Venezuelan problem (1). It does happen to all governments, they promise a survey, and later on they abandon it, never concluding anything. We are not, thus, in front of an exception, but in from of a predicted failure (2).

According to official sources, the bolivarian regime has distributed millions of hectares among peasants. Can anyone inform how they are being administered, which are the results and the projections? Meanwhile, and what has been learnt, it has been a major failure in Guarico, publicized and shown on TV, where peasants accuse public institutions for cheating them by selling them corn seed contaminated with fungi. Harvests were lost, and so were lost the loans and, of course, the hopes that they had put in their labor.

One does not need to be a rocket scientist to understand that few matters are as complex and depend on so many unpredictable factors as the agrarian production; that a special preparation is required to direct institutes such as the National Institute of Land [INTI]; that is not enough to have eaten arepa to know the complexities involved in growing corn (3). The problem of the State is that the President thinks that all his captains know everything and can do it all.

From this to hit like a blind man with a stick is just a step away (4).

Suddenly appeared fitful acts with the initiatives of the Cojedes governor "intervening", that was the word in the initial decree, a considerable number of haciendas, the famous hato Piñero among them, and also the fundo Charcote, property of a British company which is in full production, according to itsspokespeople (5). Governor Yanez Rangel called for a governor reunion, segregating the INTI, to ask not only for support, but also for imitation, that is, to act as he did.

After these episodes some more got involved, vice president Rangel, the minister of Agriculture and Land, the president of INTI, who announced as one voice a reactivation of the "commando against latifundia" as if it were a major battle. Maybe so much heroism was unnecessary. What are needed is moderation, good sense and knowledge.

Nobody wants them to remain with their arms crossed, but neither that they act as epileptics. May they know what they are doing because to govern is not to mock everyone and even less to deny people's rights. The governor of Cojedes has announced the creation of a commission that would have determined in a few days the situation of the intervened hatos. They did not wait. For example, the immediate intervention of El Charcote, an agricultural complex, better known as "the British company" was ordered.

According to a communiqué from the Agropecuaria Flora, the legal name of El Charcote, the propriety rights can be traced to 1830, that is, to the foundation of the Republic of Venezuela. The spokesperson stated that they have given copies of this to the INTI of Cojedes as well as the Caracas office. In other words, they demonstrate the ownership "without any interruption and very clearly"(6). With the phlegmatic tone which is their trademark, a spokesperson from the UK embassy expressed that "what is important is that the law is respected in an impartial manner". This is what we all wish for.

El Charcote will be the subject of a final intervention by the governor of Cojedes. The news was divulgated like a war report. "Saturday 8, at 10 AM, all the machinery of the sate, all the armed forces stationed within the state of Cojedes and its police force will be present at the installations of hato El Charcote to implement the first beachhead of mision free Land and Men". Not even Zamora had such words (7).

Governor Yanez Rangel promised that the productive process in El Charcote
will not be stopped. He said: "All that is necessary to guarantee the judicial security and preserve the right of property and the due process to the ones subject to justice will be established, just as mandated by the Constitution of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela". Yanez or Cantinflas? (8)


(jump to next section to avoid the extensive notes on this editorial)


= = = = = = = =


NOTES:


(1) Writing an history of the Venezuelan Land problem is a near encyclopedic behavior. Here is a short run, completed in other notes.


It started of course with the Spanish grabbing the land from the natives, through in part the system of encomienda. However this system did have an advantage: those who spoiled other folks from their land were rather keen in registering all their proprietary rights. By independence time all useful land close from inhabited centers was assigned in a wide variety of ownership schemes, from church lands to native lands in some areas. Including of course the gigantic estates such as those belonging to Bolivar himself.

But the independence wars, often closer to a civil war than a freedom war had the result of massacring most of the colonial elite. Those who were not killed fled the country or abandoned their ancestral lands, few remaining on the job. The epigones of Bolivar came back to Venezuela and as a compensation often occupied the ancient ingenios and haciendas which often were abandoned or with a minimum of activity by the remaining slaves and peons. With the mess of 2 decades of civil disruption, property rights were often not clear and the new land owners were not too worried about legalizing the invader situation. Not mentioning that many of them, not particularly educated in what had become a semi barbaric rural habitat were only too happy to limit themselves to cattle raising. There was thus no particular need to settle propriety rights since the new owners had the force with them and land property was pretty much as far as their cowboys could reach to herd cows.

The federal civil wars f the 1850-1870 period did not help. And the long lived an powerful dictators who followed (Guzman Blanco or Gomez) were not adverse to seizing a few haciendas for their own use, not necessarily under their name.

Thus by the middle of the XX century one could safely assume that much more than half of the land of Venezuela had dubious property rights, and there was no will to solve that situation as too many people were bound to lose. According to the census of 1937 82.5% of land holdings had changed hands in the preceding two decades, demonstrating quite a significant mobility within the land ownership structure. [return]



(2) Many a government used agrarian issues to justify their access to power, since independence times even. Bolivar emitted a decree on that subject in 1817. But the first real concerted effort was the agrarian reform of 1945, greatly expanded in 1947 and finally applied in the 60ies with the Agrarian Reform law of 1960.

The agrarian census of 1954 reflected only around 100 000 "owners" of what was about barely 25% of all of the agrarian lands. The rest of the land was owned as latifundia and worked by hired hands. The Agrarian Reform increased the number of land "owners" to 313 000 by 1985, though perhaps as many as 100 000 peasants were still claiming for land.


For all of its deficiency the Agrarian Reform is considered has having had a
considerable impact in the land owning and producing structure in Venezuela, and to have helped in maintaining social peace for 40 years. [return or go back again to next section]



(3)"arepa" is the national corn bread. It is based on a unique preparation of corn flour which allows for the making of the arepa, which cannot be made with the varieties of corn flours made, say, in the US. To make an arepa you need to buy your corn flour from Venezuela (pre-cocida,
"pre-cooked" as it is a two step preparation) [return]



(4)Translation of "dar palos de ciego". Means to try to hit with a stick when you are blind (also used for fun referring of the piñata hits where party goers must have their eyes shut by a bandana while trying to hit the piñata). [return]



(5)There is a number of terms to describe Venezuelan agricultural exploitations, not necessarily referring to the real size of the property. They start from "hato" which usually is considered large enough that some run into the acreage of a small European country. Then we have "fundo", "hacienda" to the smaller "finca" and "granja". Usually the names have a relation with the initial activity of the farm, in addition to its size. For example most chicken farms are referred to as "granjas". A "finca" is perhaps the closest to the term farm in its European sense, a few acres including a few fields and some cattle. "hacienda" has an old tenure connotation, a certain prestige even if the "hacienda" lost most of its glamour (and lands!)over the years. "hato" is mostly used for immense lands in the Llanos for cattle raising. One Spanish term not used is "rancho", widely used in Mexico. In Venezuela "rancho" is used for slums.



There is a rather good memoir in English about life in an "hacienda" in Venezuela written by a British woman. Her life strange turns had her marry a Venezuelan and live in his hacienda, running it herself alone for a few years until she got tired to see the relatives only come to get their share at harvest time. "The Hacienda", Lisa St. Aubin de Terán, Little Brown and Co., 1997, ISBN 0-316-81634-5. I can vouch for its life like feel: even if all did not happened to them, she did not make up anything. [return]



(6)In the Byzantine land tenure situation in Venezuela, one must demonstrate the successive tenureship of the land from as long as possible. The many political disruptions in our history make it quite possible that you buy land from Mr. X who bought it from Mrs. Y 10 years ago and who can show something that looks like an official document. Yet, once you build a house or plant a crop, just at harvest time you can have a neighbor come and claim part of your land (and crop) or even a long lost heir from 30 years ago with a document that actually can void your property title. In such cases, after a lengthy and costly trial you will be lucky to recover part of your initial investment. This is actually not a rare scam, heirs staying quiet for years until somebody revalues a land that they refuse to work on.


It is thus a good strategy if you buy land in Venezuela to trace property titles back for at least a couple of generations to avoid surprises. And it is always advised that you pay for a good survey and dated delimitations markers once, or before, you buy it to avoid problems with your new neighbors. That investment in lawyers and surveyors is steep at first but will be handsomely recovered when you decide to sell your property. It is my opinion that the British group holding El Charcote has probably a reasonable survey and title of the land, which makes it quite surprising that they have been chosen for the first "intervention". Politics are surely the main reason for such a choice. [return]



(7)Ezequiel Zamora (1817-1860) is one of the mythic heroes of Chavez. And he has distorted the story around him as much as he has distorted the story of Bolivar to suit his interests.


Zamora was a successful shopkeeper that got dragged into politics when the post independence order established by Paez was challenged by the "Liberal" movement, which was very loosely more open to greater popular participation, although controlled by the same social class as the one in office. As a young man Zamora had been exposed to progressive European ideas and he became an advocate of landless peasants and a noted local agitator. But when the Liberals made it to office he was associated with its new benefits and left behind any notion of social revolution that he might have harbored.


His first uprising was in 1846, and he forges his military skills until the final victory of his side in 1849. From then on he occupies diverse administrative posts and gets married in 1856 to a rich widow for whom he leaves public office to administer her estates in the Coro region. But in 1858 the Monagas regime falls and after a brief exile Zamora comes back to lead an insurrection in 1859. His military skills and leadership make him quite a successful leader with his high feat the battle of Santa Ines in December 1859. In his march to Caracas he is killed at a minor battle in San Carlos, making a rather ineffectual Falcon the new leader and postponing for several years the issue of the conflict making it as bloodied a conflict as the independence wars were. During that campaign he retook some of the popular and agrarian themes that had made him strong a decade earlier. These helped him greatly in recruiting peasants to man his army. His sudden death of course will leave for ever the mystery as to whether he would have done something about the landless peasants that time around, a doubtful proposition at best.


Nevertheless Chavez has chosen to focus only in Zamora populist and popular aspects even if Zamora was quite clearly interested in money and power, at least as much as in freeing peasants. In this respect Zamora was like many a South American strong man, rich in reformist promises, surrounded by lieutenants issued from the humblest social classes, but poor in actual results. However his legend has given Chavez a few of the terms he uses in his revolutionary jargon: "free land and men" (a mision named for that), "general del pueblo soberano" (general of the sovereign people) and of course Santa Ines, the battle cry for the chavista recall election effort.


As a side detail, it was Zamora who gave form for the first time to Yaracuy as a separate identity, in 1858. During his 1858-1860 campaign he lead the Federalist movement and founded states around the main cities that he was taking, starting the transformation from the original 7 provinces to the 22 states that now form Venezuela. [return]



(8) Cantinflas was a popular Mexican comic movie actor. One of his specialties was to ridicule incompetent bureaucrats and policies. Another was the mumbling and fumbling character that had no idea what he was doing but pretended to know [return]



= = = = = = = = =



The reality of the land distribution in Venezuela



El Nacional also published a graph obtained from the latest national census on agrarian lands. One way to look at it, a way that would favor the government intentions, is to observe that 10 972 families own 60% of the land set for agriculture in Venezuela. That of course would be unacceptable. But is it that number as offensive as some would want us to believe?


The first observation that one must make is that the situation is much less grave than it was in 1960. The Agrarian Reform then redistributed a very large amount of estates and did create a new peasant class. Unfortunately this one did not succeed for various reason. One was the very poor support to get started as they often lacked the equipment and seeds and technology that should have accompanied the redistribution. The other, much more important, was the fast urbanization of Venezuela. Today barely more than 10% of the Venezuelan population can be classified as rural population. in 1961 the rural population was already down to 37.5% from a 1926 number of 85% living in the country side! After 10 year of oil exploitation Venezuela was still a very rural country in 1926. If in 1926 Venezuela could show some semi feudal aspects, in 2004 this is not a social issue anymore.


But let's look a little bit closer at this table from El Nacional. I have simplified it by putting all the numbers in percentages. I have also taken the criteria that to make a living from the land one should own more at least 5 hectares (2.47 acres, so you can just multiply by 2 for a gross approximation if you live in the US). This is very subjective since it depends on the value of the land as an arable estate or a strictly cattle area, on water availability, on the crop, etc, etc... But one must simplify somewhere.


Thus the table has been divided into three groups, those that might not have enough land (purple), those that should have enough for a decent living (blue) and those that obviously have a lot, perhaps too much (red).



Property size in hectares
% owners in census
% lands in census
less than 18,5%48,4%0,07%1,59%
1 to 214,1%0,28%
2 to 525,7%1,24%

5 to 10

15,0%
50,7%1,60%51,97%
10 to 2011,9%2,49%

20 to 50

10,3%

5,04%
50 to 1005,4%6,02%

100 to 200

3,7%

8,12%
200 to 5003,1%15,42%

500 to 1000
1,2%13,27%

1000 to 2500
0,7%1,0%16,78%46,45%
2500 to 50000,2%10,37%

more than 5000
0,1%19,30%

Thus, for example, 25.7% of the rural families own 1.24% of the land which is comprised of properties between 2 and 5 hectares (5 and 12 acres). This particular number is rather bad. However if you regroup the population living in farms whose size should allow them to eek out a decent income (say, to buy a color TV and send kids to school) you will see that 50.7% of rural families own 51.97% of the agricultural land in Venezuela. This, with only 10% of rural population is far from being the searing problem that Chavez would like the world to believe. And certainly not the problem found in Northwest Brazil or other areas of South America.


I have also included two areas of overlap. That is, from 2 to 5 through 5 to 10 hectares where the type of crop or breed raised makes the difference between productive or unproductive. The other overlap area, from 500 to 1000 through 1000 to 5000, could represent some lands whose size is a must, in particular in extensive cattle grazing areas in the Llanos were a ranch less than 2500 hectares in certain areas might just not be productive enough. Some Llanos sectors get their only water from rain, for 6 month of the year. In other words, that 50.7% of families who own properties allowing an acceptable income might reach more than 75% of Venezuelan rural population, for almost 70% of the productive land.


Of course, this is a speculation as real numbers and rural conditions are not available. Not to mention that there is a profound inequality in Venezuelan land quality. I would much rather own 5 hectares of Yaracuy land than 50 or even 500 hectares of Apure land. In fact, some Yaracuy lands are owned by people from Llanos states who send their cattle to their Yaracuy property for a final fattening before the slaughter house!



So, why is Chavez so intent in breaking the land structure?



It is important to notice that what would be more useful to ensure the productivity of the Venezuelan country side, what is really needed, would be a large technical program, including education, financing, technology, determination of suitable crops and a real complete census of lands and exact determination of real property titles. But that is too slow a way for people who want flashy results and think that they know it all. Instead,expropriation and setting up cooperatives that would favor a very few percentile points of the population is a preferred method of political promotion. Not forgetting that experience dictates that very few folks in Caracas slums, as in most countries, will willingly go back to the country side.



No, the reasons are to be sought elsewhere.



One is the need to promote the bolivarian adventure in other countries by creating a fake problem, a code word to rally support elswhere.


Another is to destroy a source of wealth for the opposition to Chavez, even if he risks to create food problems in Venezuela (see the Zimbabwe fiasco for a possible Venezuelan future).


A more likely explanation is to force the present landholders to sell their land cheaply to the new oligarchic class that Chavismo is creating fast with the state monies so liberally spread around to unconditional followers.


And the one that is the most likely objective, is to create a smoke curtain while civil liberties are curtailed. As the "interventions of hatos" is programmed, the gag law gets into effect, a new penal code is voted making it a crime for this blogger to write "Chavez is a jerk", decentralization is becoming a dream of the past, militarization of society advances speedily and new repressive laws are in the books while opposition leaders are facing jail for their ideas.


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