Starting the year

After this self portrait I hope the reader will forgive me if I do not start with an edge the new year. Jumping from a hammock in the middle of nowhere to discuss the Chavez cabinet change and the FARC children abuse which waited for me upon my arrival a couple of hours ago will take at least a one night adjustment.

PS: thanks to the anonymous comment moderator who did a great job these days, accepting and erasing as needed.


-The end-

Announcement: inflation, crime and a second break.

There is so much to post on such as the way higher murder rate in Venezuela than in Iraq or how Cabezas fiscal policies failed miserably as Venezuelan inflation reached 23%, almost the double of the set goal, the highest of the continent, about 4 times as high as the average. And let's not even mention the very partial, very selective, very meaningless "amnesty"....

In "normal countries" the ministers in charge would have long ago tendered their resignation, but here the architect of Venezuelan economic policy since 1999, Giordani, the man who presides today over a probably real 35% inflation, who oversaw the collapse of Venezuelan currency from 500 to 1 USD to now around 6,000, is not even giving press interviews, hidden from view in some distant office and harshly criticizes anyone who dares even to emit a doubt about his ideas. Dogmatism to the hilt. I do not even blame Cabezas, he is just stupid and follows orders he is not able to understand. The blame of course is Chavez who keeps incompetents such as Pedro Carroña, oops, Carreño,, Cabezas, Giordani and so many other in office, forbidding them to even resign as he wants to be the only one who decides who stays and who goes. It is even rumored that Chavez attends less and less cabient meetings, as his attention cannot be distracted form his foreign adventures (where he has quite another incompetent in charge with Maduro).

So? What is a blogger to do? Go for a second break to spend as fast as possible the little bit of cash left after the holidays before it vanishes in thin air. It will be a different green adventure and I will see you back Sunday night. And this time I might not even have Direct TV.

-The end-

The New Year Post: best wishes and musings of a blogger

I must start by apologizing to the readers: this Happy New Year Post is late due to health circumstances of a relative, fortunately now under control. You know, end of year excesses. So let’s start by wishing all the readers of this blog a good and productive 2008, with some of the Caracas fireworks. And let’s set the tone of this post right here: the success of this blog is due to its readers and even more so this year.


I must thank readers because this year this blog has reached numbers that I would have never dreamed to reach when I started 5 years ago, not even knowing what a blog was. Because it also turns out that in a few days this blog will be five years old. It all started when US friends suggested that I publish in a blog the letters I was sending them thorough the “paro” of 2002-2003. Over time Venezuela News became a specialty blog that acquired a following and some modest renown. Last year for the presidential election the BBC asked for a blurb. This year I have written several articles for other pages and got requests for yet more pages that I had to decline for the time being because simply I have no time. Besides, writing here I can indulge in some sloppy English, but publishing anything elsewhere is not as forgiving.

The diverse statistics for this year are interesting. First this last November and December are respectively the second and first most unique visitors count ever. More than in August 2004, more than in December 2006. The blog through the years has become consistent enough to attract more attention, even for issues that the casual observer might not consider as pressing as a presidential election. Even the Technorati ratings have placed this blog regularly between 18,000 and 25,000 out of the millions of blogs followed. For a niche blog, a dedicated anti Chavez 365/365, to reach the percentile top 2% is quite a feat.

But this year there was something truly special and it was the creation of a blog for the NO to the constitutional reform written by readers of this blog. That effort, a first among Venezuelan blogs as far as I can tell, and certainly a first in English, was quite something. The quality of the texts submitted by the different readers, from newbies to experimented blog writers was quite something and created perhaps the best documented English language page on the dangers behind the Chavez constitutional reform proposal, thankfully beaten for the time being. Truly, over the years this blog has acquired perhaps undeservedly truly great readers, readers even willing to put their neck out to support a cause, an extraordinary precedent for the difficult times that will be coming.

Of course, the impact of readers, even some of the pro Chavez ones, has been essential to force me to write consistently and factually. That the pro Chavez readers do not like the facts I chose to discuss about is another matter, forcing me two years ago to set up a moderation system. After all this blog is dedicated much more to those who suffer from seeing Venezuela's decline under Chavez and we have absolutely no interest in reading apologies or sycophantic tirades that support or apologize for Chavez. We have long ago made up our minds on the man and the only thing we are interested to discuss is what truly hides behind Chavez words and actions. The rest is only a show to seduce the naïve, as we just saw last week with the hostage release show.

But the success of this blog, as modest as this one might be, has run its course. The extraordinary effort put last year amazed me. I thought that my blogging days were over when Chavez was reelected but he gave us so much fantastic material last year that blogging became more intense than ever. Still, let’s all face the reality: there are only so many ways to describe the evil behind Chavez and this blog has probably covered 99% of them… And it has been a success: I do not know how much blogs are read by foreign press and media, but we have succeeded, and I include here Miguel and CcasChron and even now absent Alek for his archives, just to mention the most prolific of the lot. Today the Chavez image is tarnished, on the decline, only praised in more and more restricted left wing circles which bear more resemblance to covens than to any strong political movement.

Thus there is really no point continuing trashing Chavez day in and day out: readers and this blogger can congratulate themselves for a job well done. Because let’s not be cheap with praise for the readers: their demands, their criticisms, their strong comments, their mails have shaped my writing all through this years. Any quality or success Venezuela News and Views has obtained could have never been obtained if I had not had to rise to the level demanded by readers.

But what to do now? Let’s review first this past year. The marking point was the closing of RCTV and the unleashing of the student force. We are talking here of the better educated students, the ones going to the better schools. Let’s not delve on the social implications that might be hidden before that, while keeping in mind that even most of the students coming from lower classes and that manage to enter these schools tend to oppose chavismo anyway as the recent UCV elections clearly established (we are waiting for chavista newly formed universities to hold internal elections, something not about to happen as from the own admission of their student representatives who claim that elections are unnecessary since anyone of them can speak for the lot, or some such nonsense).

If there was a key political moment in 2007 it was the start of student protests in Caracas last May June. And if there was a key moment in the blog it was the post “The week the Bolivarian Revolution died”, which was amazingly prophetic now that we can look back at it and how it heralded the second semester as the constitutional reform tanked badly. That post will be one of the most important post ever written in this blog, perhaps the most important one of all. All the rest of the year, from Antonini cash bag, to the nationalization of CANTV become mere incidents in front of the student protest wave which single handedly reshaped the whole political discourse in Venezuela, even as it gave rise to the most abject form of counter propaganda from chavismo, ranging from Chavez himself asking the slums to go down to Caracas to crush the protests (they did not) to tasteless video montages trying to link the large student protest to some silly international conspiracy theory.

Thus we open 2008 with a new political climate, made cruder by the failure of Chavez to get the FARC to free a meager three hostages. And thus it is time to question the purpose of this blog. For sure there will be plenty to criticize from Chavez. And it will be as fascinating to narrate the decline of Chavez than it was to narrate the build up of his power through these past 5 years. But now it is time to add new objectives. For example I have avoided all along to discuss what could be done to Venezuela. After all I was writing in English and anything I could write had little if no chance to be applied. However now that we see a possible end of chavismo it is time to discuss projects, how to rebuild Venezuela. Perhaps I am sensing a new project to get readers involved in writing their opinions on what could be done?

There is also another reality: next year I will have less time to blog, and I want to write about something else. Less posts, more about foreign policy or cultural matters, which have found some interest in readers. Should I indulge some? At any rate this blog will change, will be less Chavez centered (I need to do a better archive so I can avoid repetitions).

So this is it, a milestone was reached in 2007, and Venezuela News and Views should evolve to something different. It is time to take chances with more reader participation (sorry, moderation stays) and to look more often outside of Venezuela. And perhaps other projects that I have had in the back burner for eons. We will see. But right now, to all of those regular readers, regular e-mailers, regular commenters, my best wishes for 2008, hoping that we live together what promises to be yet another exciting year of political events.


-The end-

The Chavez hostage road show

This blogger was a mile away, at the end of the road below. Yet, if there were no phones, if electricity was shut up regularly for long hours, if neither newspapers nor cellular phones could reach him, there was a generator and Direct TV. Thus, even in the middle of nowhere I was not spared the incredibly tacky show that Chavez has been setting up about the FARC hostages. By the way, considering that yours truly could watch TV in the jungle, I am pretty certain that the FARC from Colombian jungle could have managed the release of the hostages a little bit faster, a little bit more expedient than what they have been doing. Right there one is allowed to grow suspicious at how the whole business has been handled.

Because indeed I have been watching a lot of stunning moments. For example the arrival of “dignitaries” in Venezuela waiting to have news from the FARC. They will fly together to pick up the hostages. Nestor Kirchner in the jungle picking up hostages? Oliver Stone I can still understand as he might be looking for some ideas for his next action packed flick. Of course, Chavez who has had a bad year internationally is having gargles out of his speeches welcoming the “witnesses”. I even heard him saying that had he invited 50 (1000?), they would all have come. In fact Chavez is totally out of control on this show, donning even the military outfit, red beret and all. As if he were in campaign himself waddling jungle ponds as I have been doing myself these days.

Chavez declarations are even becoming indecent, inappropriate, vulgar. I heard him for example declare that in spite of all the falling out with Uribe (“platos rotos” broken dishes) if this one would allow him he would jump in a plane and fly over to Colombia to retrieve the hostages himself. But do not be fooled in thinking that maybe it is just Chavez high on something. No, it is a well concerted propaganda effort. These days watching the Venezuelan state TV one assists at a full fledged viva Chavez show. We have reached now such a crescendo over that that now the FARC have become guerilla victims of Colombian aristocracy. Never mind that Uribe was reelected with more than 60% of the votes. And we hear such incongruities as Isturiz speaking of a certain guerilla as been “an excellent guerilla” (excelente guerillero). No, I am not making this up. How do you rate such a guerilla? Kills only cops? Sends flowers on Mother’s day? Is from the FARC rather than the ELN? Feeds his hostages?

But why should Chavez again stop himself from rewriting history? After all people such as Sarkozy or Oliver Stone or Yolanda Pulecio are willing to jettison Colombian government just for the sake of effect or their own petty interests. At least in the case of Ms. Pulecio we can forgive her from having become a sort of Stockholm Syndrome sufferer in her despair at getting back her daughter Ingrid Betancourt. We can even find in our hearts to forgive her from saying that Chavez is “so humane, so caring, Venezuelans are so lucky to have someone who finally cares about hostages”. Has anyone told her that Chavez does not give a crap about the near 100 hostages held inside Venezuela?

For Oliver Stone words on the other hand I cannot find forgiveness. I heard him saying “great process, great guy” referring to Chavez as he arrived in Santo Domingo, Tachira. The master of conspiracy theory has fallen big time for the ultimate conspiracy of all as Chavez is trying to con half the world with his hostage release. No wonder that Stone makes the Michael Moore look good these days. At least Moore might over interpret the facts he handles but at least he starts from facts.

I suppose that the Chavez show will have some success among that crowd. After all, many of them are in such need of another hero (Tina Turner anyone?) that they are willing to cooperate fully even if deep inside they know it might be wrong. Does Kirchener ignore that the FARC has become a gang of criminals, drug traffickers, terrorists? Of course he has not forgotten, but he pretends to. After all, what else can he try in order to make the Argentinean people forget about the bags full of money sent to finance his wife’s electoral campaign? He can take a cue from ANY Venezuelan state TV, ranting non stop on the hostages putative liberation rather than discussing why December 2 the NO won, why milk is not returning on the shelves, why inflation is eating Venezuelan incomes, why crime this December will overcome easily the Iraq death toll for the month.

Because there are some elemental values that are too easily forgotten in this most hypocrite of shows: the victims here are not the FARC, they are the hostages of the FARC. No political organization can build its political career on kidnapping and ransom. Even Al Qaeda in this respect is better than the FARC: they limit themselves to kill. The FARC holds hostages AND kills them when needed. Or have all those people fanning over Chavez in Tachira have forgotten that a few months ago the FARC killed a dozen of its hostages when Colombian security forces threaten to reach the place where they were held? Have these people forgotten that there are hundred more of hostages in Colombia and Venezuela? Are these people unable to see that Chavez is playing them like a fiddle to legitimize the FARC so as to use it to unseat Uribe or whomever comes after him?

Fortunately the calm and compunction of Colombian authorities in front of this grotesque carnival are to be admired. I suspect that even in the short term Uribe will prevail over the over excitable Chavez, no matter how many movie directors he gets to help him stage his hostage reality show. Because where it matters, in Colombia and Venezuela, Chavez is not fooling many people. Then again since December 2 Chavez has stopped caring about us. His objective now is to look good in Paris and Hollywood so that he can screw us here without anyone growing concerned. Castro has managed it for decades, why should not Chavez succeed too?


PS: As I returned to Caracas and posted this no hostage has been freed yet. I have a simple question: if criminal Ivan Marquez has been able to visit Chavez at Miraflores Palace a few weeks ago in spite of being on the most wanted list in Colombia, how come the three hostages at stake this week cannot be dumped at some dirt road crossing, with a tent, water and food for a couple of days? The FARC would have plenty of time to bail out of Dodge before giving the GSP position. No?


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Benazir Bhutto assassinated: a lesson in leadership

People can say whatever they want of Benazir Bhutto, but courage is not what she lacked. And she paid the price for it a few minutes ago.

I cannot post much right now, even less get references, but I can manage this little note. Compared to the alleged myriad of assassination attempts on Chavez where not even a nail was broken, may this serve as a comparison of the empty braggadocio of Chavez and the real courage of a woman like Benazir. Benazir might have talked a lot too, but she acted, she put her life on line everyday of her life and she did not make and issue out of it except for what she needed to say about it. Chavez? Hot air, all the time, everywhere.

See you in three days.

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Away for a few days

Next post December 30. Keep leaving comments anyway, I might be able to approve them at some point. At any rate, there is enough reading material for you to catch up after spending days shopping for Christmas and ingesting lots of delicacies.

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The 2007 result: these local variations that undid Chavez

One thing that is interesting to observe from the 2007 result is the surprising role that local politics played in what should have been a strictly national contest. After all we were voting for a new constitution, not the mayor of Tucusiapon. But local political situations did play a role, sometimes even a major role such as in Lara state where the tug of war within chavismo for the succession of governor Reyes Reyes probably gave the most surprising NO victory in the whole country.

The other crucial observation, in particular for the long term prospects of chavismo is that the 2006 pattern is preserved: the poorer, more dependent a region from state subsidies or hand outs the more likely it is to vote for Chavez. That is, in more developed urban areas with a significant portion of its population employed in private sector or the public sector not subjugated to the whims of chavismo (universities for example) the NO usually won. There, the socialism content of the reform proposal was read for what it was: NOT a European social democracy but more of a Cuban style state control on everything.

That Urban phenomenon

Let’s start already with this observation which I had already covered in my general survey of the 2006 election results. I had noticed that in spite of the overwhelming victory of Chavez at the national level in December 2006, some urban areas such as even San Felipe resisted the tide. Rosales did carry most of these areas, a mix of downtown business, middle class neighborhoods, universities, etc… As I wrote then

“The opposition voter is a driven self reliant voter. It is also an above average educated voter. It is now more than ever the very largest bulk of the Venezuelan middle class, from the office clerk, the qualified worker to the business magnate”.

On December 2 this year, this trend was not only confirmed but even showed signs of strengthening. Obviously this must raise issues for Chavez as you cannot build a country if most of the skilled work force is against you.

The loss of Caracas

The most dramatic example this time is the searing defeat of Chavez/chavismo in the Caracas metropolitan area. Readers must remember that in 2004 already Caracas voted to revoke Chavez. This time not only Chavez lost strongly within Caracas but he even lost in the main distant suburban areas. The main implication is that for the regional elections of 2008 the opposition has its two surest bets in the country: to unseat Diosdado Cabello and Juan Barreto who have been very deficient bad mouthed administrators.

The graph below shows in red numbers the districts carried by Chavez in 2006. And in blue how most of them shifted to the NO. Note, in the greater Caracas districts I do not include the entire districts, for example in Guaicaipuro I picked out only the Los Teques area.

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Some of these results that should be of great worry for chavismo. The first one is for Libertador, the Caracas downtown area, where Bernal the mayor, now one year away from losing his job due to term limits has basically stopped administering the city. The verdict is stinging there. Not only the NO gains almost 50 000 votes from Rosales in 2006 but Chavez loses 260 000 votes. That is, we see in Libertador not only a huge abstention against Chavez but a large cross over of people tired of seeing downtown Caracas turned into a dump, a lot of people that knew perfectly well that the solution to their problems is not through Chavez being able to change the name of Caracas while appointing the major himself. No, the solution comes from kicking the bums out, which is now almost certain to happen next October. Can you imagine Chavez with a Libertador mayor opposed to his policies? (note: we also see this magnitude of electoral shift in Guarenas where chavismo used to go when it needed photo ops of adoring crowds).

The second interesting result is that while the NO advanced over Chavez 2006 result everywhere, in the opposition bastions of Baruta, Chacao and El Hatillo we observe slightly less votes for the NO than for Rosales. This indicates the existence of an opposition abstention as we discussed in last week post.

All in all the result for Caracas is quite staggeringly negative for chavismo. From 2006 chavismo lost 478.000 votes while the opposition in spite of its abstention picked up enough chavista votes to gain 60.000 votes. Another year of bad management, of empty shelves and even Guarenas could be picked up by some opposition moderate left candidate….

The loss of San Felipe and Valencia

Although not as dramatic as Caracas, the phenomenon of chavismo retreat in urban centers can be picked up even in the only real urban area of Yaracuy: San Felipe. This “metro” area includes the districts of San Felipe, Cocorote and La Independencia. This time around chavismo lost even its old bastion of La Independencia!

The combined rounded vote of 2006 was 35.000 for Chavez but this time around the SI got only 21.000 votes. Meanwhile the opposition built on Rosales 31.000 to reach a NO vote of 34.000.

In the larger urban area of Valencia we observe the same thing when we combine Valencia, Naguanagua and San Diego. In 2006 Chavez got for the three of them 246.000 but the SI got 156.000. Rosales voters amounted to 220.000 but now the NO voters reached 245.000.

Chavista bastions with cracks in the wall

There are really no good news for chavismo. The only area where chavismo kept its strength was the Llanos area. But even there some worry signs are lighting up on chavismo electoral command central. For example Portuguesa was carried handily for the SI and by Chavez in 2006. In fact Portuguesa was one of the top three states in the Chavez percentile of 2006. But today in the town of Acarigua we are sensing the beginning of that Urban Vote thing. In 2006 for each Rosales vote of Portuguesa there was 3.4 Chavez vote! In Acarigua the ratio was 2.92. But in 2007 the ratio in favor of Chavez dropped to 1.71 while in Acarigua it dropped to 1.34. Certainly Portuguesa remains a sure bet for a chavista governor to succeed Antonia Muñoz next October. But next time legislative elections come around the opposition could now count on one or two seats instead of the 0 seats it has won since 2000.

The case of Barinas is actually even humiliating for Chavez even though the SI carried the state and its namesake capital. In 2006 Chavez won Barinas (city) by 90.000 to 41.000. This time around the SI won by a meager 52.000 to 50.000. From double to even in one year! We also observe other chavista bastions which present cracks in their pillars. However there is dubious new bastion for chavismo: Monagas. This state is the top SI vote percent wise. But this is a meager consolation. The SI got indeed a 57.9% of the Monagas vote but Chavez in 2006 had a 70.9%! There is a drop of 94.000 votes. And to add insult to injury, the capital Maturin voted NO anyway.

Local effects

Finally there are states where we can observe local political situations exacerbating the NO/SI result.

The big surprise of the election was that one of the states considered a chavista bastion, Lara, voted NO! And not even that close. A state that Chavez had carried by 250.000 votes was now lost by 16.000, the opposition/NO picking up a nifty 12.000 votes. Why such a reversal?

A close examination of the results show that the vote was decided in the metropolitan area of Lara, Barquisimeto and Cabudare. Just there the NO vote gained 51.000 over the Rosales total of 2006. While of course chavismo suffered a tremendous hemorrhage. And thus the explanation. The current governor of Lara, Reyes Reyes, a mediocre governor, a lackluster personality who had to pick up some of Chavez ticks to make up some for his lack of character, has decided that he wants his son to succeed him at the Governor‘s mansion. His son of course has no proven ability for nothing and the naked act of nepotism is even more grating to Larenses as the mayor of Barquisimeto, also subjected to the two term limit, wants to run for governor. The problem here is that Barquisimeto mayor, Henri Falcon, is probably the best chavismo has to offer as far as public administration is concerned. He is good looking, he talks the people talk, he picks up the garbage. Reyes Reyes has been doing his best during his second term to sabotage the action of Falcon, going as far as stopping the work on a modest mass transit construction to make sure it is not inaugurated by Falcon before he leaves office. Thus probably a lot of chavistas supporting Falcon have sent a message to Chavez with that NO vote: do not impose on us the son of your buddy. Because of course the problem here is that Reyes Reyes is one of the buddy-buddy of Chavez. Otherwise, the message might have been "watch us vote for Falcon anyway, or even worse! An opposition!!!

There are other examples of local politics at play. Anzoategui is a case where a sectarian, disruptive, fascist, pro Muslim governor, Tarek Saab, as gained such enmity that a 140.000 victory in 2006 for Chavez became a 40.000 defeat in 2007. Tarek reelection as of December 2 has become quite problematic for chavismo who might even be tempted to field a different candidate next October.

But there is a counter example where the maverick pro Chavez governor of Trujillo has managed to have his state buck the trend in the Andes giving a solid SI victory while Tachira and Merida gave a solid defeat for chavismo. though even in Trujillo the abstention brought down 2006 numbers.

Conclusion?

There is a simple conclusion: Chavez lost the automatic control of the electorate he enjoyed since 1999. Now elections will have to be won by more than a "those who vote NO or for so and so are traitors". The next contest is October 2008 and we will be able to watch close these regional differences gain a sudden key role and watch how well Chavez is able to overcome regional factors. Assuming of course that he does not kick the table before.

Just for the fun of it we could venture a prediction for the Regional Elections of 2008. Be aware that 10 months is a lifetime in politics before you give utter credence to my extremely preliminary predictions. This is just in fun.

The opposition should retain without much problem the only two states it holds presently: Zulia and Nueva Esparta. The only catch here is to find a successor for Rosales who is subject to the two term limits.

The opposition should gain without much trouble Tachira, Caracas, and Miranda. In each case the hurdle will be to find a unity candidate. But even a red dog might make it if all line up behind it.

The opposition has an excellent shot at Merida, Carabobo, Yaracuy and Anzoategui.

Through “dissident” chavistas the states of Aragua and Lara could be denied to Chavez.

Falcon and Bolivar are unpredictable at this time, the personality of the candidates being the key there perhaps more than anywhere else.

Chavismo should retain without problem all of the Llanos state, plus Trujillo, Monagas, Vargas, Sucre and the small Amazonas and Delta Amacuro. Though Sucre might not be a piece of cake depending of who Ramon Martinez decides to support. He has reached his tow term limits and his strong NO campaign almost cost Sucre to Chavez.

But of course if the students decide to run on their own then all bets are off. However that is another story. At least there is one parameter we need not worry about: Chavez starting to take interest in the administration of the country and solving some of the real problems suffered by the populace. From his December activities so far, he does not seem to be willing to make up with the "traidores" and we can expect him adding enemies. He might be erratic enough to lose these regional elections by himself.

-The end-