Monday, October 01, 2012

VN&V final predictions for October 7

Really...  as if pandemonium could still not happen until next Sunday [deep sigh].

But here they are, my last predictions if possible, where I give Capriles 540,000 more votes than Chavez. That means that with a 25% abstention Capriles would get around 7.3 million votes to Chavez 6.7 million. In percentage that would be 51,4% to Chavez 47,6% and the rest to minor guys.

Details next.



First a correction from previous predictions.  I updated the "registered" voters column. It really does not change much from my previous calculations, at most a percentile point according to a given state population increase.

I give red or blue to a state when my predicted advantage in that state is equal to 5% of the registered voters. Those states are, so to speak, solid predictions. In light blue or red we will consider as tending to Capriles or Chavez, states that could still somewhat be shifted back this week, or made solid.

When Chavez is ahead his advantage is marked on positive percentage but when Capriles is ahead I marked it in negative percentage, to make my life easier with Excel.

Finally my "lower" column is my actual prediction, though I have indulged in a "upper" scenario where I give an extra 200,000 to Capriles, mostly due to his performance yesterday in Caracas.  My gut feeling is that Capriles will cross the 1 million mark, but I have been conservative all along.  In a way it does not matter for my reputation because if Chavez wins I probably will never bother with these exercises again and if Capriles win I will not have the need to bother with such games again. A win-win from hell for me :)

Two general considerations.  First, in spite of Capriles huge success in his street rallies, I only take this as meaning the momentum is his way. Second, the momentum of Capriles affects him in that it may lower abstention which favors Chavez. Thus I have brought back up the participation to 75%. And yet I have not changed my basic model because I also think that Capriles has been able to pry directly away votes from Chavez. Not a lot, mind you, but enough to compensate for the lower abstention within chavismo.

By zones, in the table order.

The Llanos. In spite of all the best effort of Capriles these remain missionary territory for the opposition.  In fact this may be the undoing of my system because I am afraid I may have been a tad indulgent with Capriles   Then again there was that rain soaked meeting in San Juan de los Morros which has gotta mean something as people stayed, under the rain,  anyway, waiting  for Capriles....

The Andes. If Tachira remains solid for Capriles I place Merida solid in my "upper" scenario. Trujillo, in spite of the expected victory in Valera will remain with Chavez.

Oriente. This is a mixed bag and it is where the election will really be played.  I am not putting Monagas in Capriles column. However it still would be a major defeat for Chavez because he is bound to lose there 20 points from his  2006 score. And my gut feeling is that Capriles will beat him there anyway. But I cannot eschew historical trends that easily. Anzoategui is solid for Capriles courtesy of the AD candidate for governor. Margarita has been too battered by the regime not to be taken by Capriles, probably by 5 points more than I indicate.  But the other states have still underlying factors that may favor Chavez in the end. We will see.

The Centro. This is Capriles territory. Vargas really does not count for much and Aragua could well end up in a squeaky victory for Capriles. Aragua, with Monagas, is the potentially worse upset for Chavismo. A Chavez defeat in Aragua not only seals Capriles victory but will give him an easier transition as chavismo will be really weakened by a defeat in its historic area, an area that it has targeted and nursed for so long.  Caracas Libertador is now going Capriles for sure though I am not sure if he can claim more than 5% margin. After all, in 2010 it was barely a 1% spread and voting patterns in Caracas do not change as fast, no matter what a huge success he got last Sunday.

Zulia. They do not like Capriles that much there anyway. However....  Pablo Perez is young and smart enough to understand that his political future is best ensured by a Capriles victory.  And thus he has worked his butt off for Capriles. And also Zulia has been so battered, black mailed and what not that rejection of chavismo runs deep there. I am willing to bet that Capriles will win by at least 10 points.

My home area. Falcon is iffy, too many areas depending on the regime's largess  Lara has the Falcon effect, a little bit like the Perez factor in Zulia.  It is the area where the opposition can really take away votes directly from chavismo without going through an "abstention" period.  Even though I am putting it with 10 points it really could go as low as 5 and as high as 15 for Capriles. Whatever, it goes in the Capriles column. That will be made certain by Capriles closing there next Wednesday, Barquisimeto which accounts for more than half the votes.

39 comments:

  1. Anonymous6:27 PM

    Daniel, this is going to prove to be the biggest embarassment of your blogging career.

    Your numbers will be proved wrong on the order of millions.

    I can only imagine this catastrophic miscalculation is the culmination of 6 years of unfounded mounting hope.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have this image of you. You are in front of your computer, waiting to be the first one to post, almost always, when I make a prediction. And it has to be real scene because I have not advertised it on tweeter that there is already a silly comment from you.

      I suppose that I should thank you for being perhaps my most fervent reader. I have just a question for you: of the 21 votes for Chavez in the current poll, how many are from you from a different computer?

      Delete
    2. Most likely he is on target. But if he is wrong it will be because he has under estimated Capriles' support which he knows and stated that. He won't be embarrassed, simply elated. By the way on what are you basing your opinion? Hope, hanging on to chavez' lost charisma, anger, fear, or just plain STUPIDITY? Your ignorant denial of changes in the country and it's love for "El Flaco" may be the basis of an opinion, but that doesn't make it reality.

      Delete
    3. Kta

      A chavista will NEVER sustain a numerical comment. For them "ideas" are enough.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous4:13 PM

      this phrase is mint! pure gold!

      Delete
  2. Go away, Ano-nymous I'll bet that after Sunday, you will not be man enough to write n apologetic excuse for Chavez' loss!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anonymous7:39 PM

    Daniel,

    Have you seen that CNE is opening an investigation against pj and mud. I read it on notices 24, the balls on these people!

    ReplyDelete
  4. Cari Contreras8:03 PM

    hopefully this will happen, or something even better. I though you were going to wait for some last poll and then post your predictions...

    I also saw the whole CNE investigation against PJ and the MUD, and my reaction is that at this pooint is just plain ridiculous

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I use polls very sparingly. When a pool strongly contradicts a conclusion of mine I just go and review it. But once I publish something I am pretty much confident and have never had to go back. So far at least.

      This time around the only poll that swayed somewhat my calculations was the lara miranda of datanalisis. I had lara 5 points more but miranda 5 less. I decided that I was not in agreement with them because they probably overweighed Barquisimeto and that I was trying to be more objective than necessary in miranda. So I evened out to the same level.

      Otherwise I am mostly poll free and yet I reach a very similar result than consulted 21, which of course tickles me pink.

      Delete
  5. kernel_panic8:13 PM

    Daniel, several things

    1) will you update this predicition once all the cierres are done?

    2) You say that this is your conservative estimate, the lower and upper bounds of it, and then you can say that capriles might beat the 1M mark. Question: completely off-topic to your "official" prediction, what does your gut tell it will happen?

    3) It's true that zulianos dont dig capriles that much, but one thing is for certain: we freaking hate hugo. The fact that we hate him+PP is, as you say, campaiging for capriles+insecurity at the border (or in monte y culebra, to put it clearly) will get us a wider margin here (at least, that's what I hope). I can tell you from a close friend that lives in mara and works for the government, that when they vote, a PSUV member watches over their shoulder to make sure they vote for "the right one", she tells me that she isn't voting capriles because of that but sure as hell she wont vote hugo=abstention, and some people she knows will do that as well. Also, my mom met with an old friend that lives at sur del lago, and told her that people are voting capriles because they hope a new government will kick FARCs arse and that's what bothers them. Also, I had the chance to see a Chavez rally on friday one of the most important avenues in Maracaibo, 5 de julio... only about 3 blocks long ( I call it rally, but neither chavez was there or anything "that planned", just people supporting chavez walking the street). If you want to show your force, you march on the biggest, most important avenue of a city, and if you can barely fill 3-4 blocks, that says something :) Conclusion: I think you could add a nice 1% to capriles on zulia state with ease :)

    4) OT-poll: what time do you think they are announcing the results? this should be a good one!

    5) another OT-poll: what's it gonna be until 4)? coffee, ethyl, irish coffee or just plain valium?

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Anonymous8:34 PM

      "a PSUV member watches over their shoulder to make sure they vote for "the right one""

      If we have the witnesses in place (and according to LL this is true) then that will be impossible to do for PSUV. Please tell her to go vote, and everyone she knows as well...

      Delete
    2. Kernel

      1)maybe. For example after today's more than stupendous rally I am ready to put Bolivar in blue. But no, no major change is expected since I sort of previewed the last week "cierres" by putting my upper column.

      2) my gut tells me he will reach 1 m. But I am not willing to bet. However I am willing to bet on my table above.

      3) anonymous replied well.

      4 and 5) it looks like this time around I will be alone on election night unless I can vote early enough to go to caracas. But if I stay on my own I will open a bottle of champagne for me alone before tibia comes up. That way I will already be celebrating or will be drawing my sorrows.

      Delete
    3. Daniel: vote early. go to Caracas with your champagne. If I can travel 5 hours to vote and return, you can too.

      Delete
  6. Anonymous8:33 PM

    "a PSUV member watches over their shoulder to make sure they vote for "the right one""

    If we have the witnesses in place (and according to LL this is true) then that will be impossible to do for PSUV. Please tell her to go vote, and everyone she knows as well...

    ReplyDelete
  7. Yes, you are probably overestimating Capriles' numbers on the hopeless Llanos. Chavez won those by 40 pts average on 2006 and at his worst by 20 on 2010. You should give him the llanos by 30 or at least 25 pts if you're being conservative, since in 2010 it wasn't even him on the ballot... I'd also say that Delta Amacuro is way too close on your estimates but there are so few voters there that it might not matter.

    I've the feeling that the keys to a Capriles win are neutralizing Chavez votes in Aragua, Monagas and Libertador, and win decisively on the big oppo states + Lara. I'm cautiously optimistic he can make it. Even if he doesn't, I think Chavez will come out very much weakened after Oct 7th.

    The CNE investigation against PJ and MUD and the incredibly outrageous allegation that CNE has been infiltrated by MUD operators to alter the electoral roll and somehow give votes to Capriles are proof that something funny is happening on the way to the poll.

    :)

    ReplyDelete
  8. Javier9:40 PM

    Hi there:

    For me, Capriles gets 60 %. Recent pollsters have said that majority of the People that respond "don't know / don't answer" is because they are afraid to answer Capriles. On the other hand,to me many of those that have answered Chavez in polls is for a "just in case" the pollsters know who they are, so Chavez numbers are inflated while Capriles' are understimated.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Will you be revising your numbers for Cojedes?
    Today's chavista rally was, according to several, pitiful. Chávez, too, looked dreadful - unas ojeras asombrosas.
    http://www.noticierodigital.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=907353

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am reviewing everything all the time but only update if needed really. Cojedes is so wretched, so dependent that Chavez did not need to go there. If he went it is because he is afraid to go elsewhere or because he thinks he may lose Cojedes. If he loses Cojedes he loses the election by 1.5 million.

      Delete
  10. Looks like you did a heck of a job, Daniel. I dare to give Monagas and Aragua to HCR by a narrow margin IMHO. The key to a possible HCR victory passes by reducing the gap in those Chavista strongholds like Los Llanos and specially winning Oriente and Bolivar.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think Bolivar is in. After today visit by Capriles it is in blue :)

      Oriente is indeed the key, not only to victory but the margin. If HCR carries Bolivar by 5, Monagas by 1 and loses Sucre by 1 it means a national victory by a solid 5.

      Delete
  11. Anelim6:29 AM

    "Vargas really does not count for much"

    Although maybe true, it still hurt a little bit :(

    Hope you are right in your predictions, fingers crossed!

    ReplyDelete
  12. Daniel, aren't you gonna have the table available for us to play with? Maybe a Google Docs read-only document would be nice.

    ReplyDelete
  13. margareth8:23 AM

    I hope Capriles will win with all my heart, but I am afraid for fraud in the election. Sorry I have this gut feeling, and I hope so much Daniel is right!

    ReplyDelete
  14. Anonymous8:48 AM

    I feel strongly that many Chavistas will turn and vote for Capriles. These are the ones that are tired of groveling to Chavez for what little benefits the government provides. Despite Chavez claims, he is not the owner of the country and the benefits are not gifted by Chavez.

    ReplyDelete
  15. This is the most exciting election ever.... I live in the states" Michigan"... I've been following election since the beginning... this is an election with True meaning..... I've been following this blog.. the frustration.. the passion....... I've been to Venezuela a few times.. I've been profiled iat the airport..had my cell phone stolen by a pirate cabbie..twice!!..:).. but I've also met a lot of great people.... I hope this election turns out the way you want it... keep up the great blog I'll keep following it...Best!!

    ReplyDelete
  16. This is like waiting for Christmas, but where Christmas might actually turn out to be the first day of 6 more years of Lent...

    ReplyDelete
  17. Island Canuck10:03 AM

    Here's a little story that has no moral other than it made me feel good.

    I was in a long line to pay a government bill (no names to protect the innocent) & after 45 minutes I finally got to the cashier. There was a little discussion about the fact that the payment website that they use won't accept my information so I could pay on-line.

    The cashier advised me that the website hasn't operated in 3 months due to a problem of communication between the government entity & the payment portal. In frustration I said "Hay un camino". He smiled, didn't say anything but reached through the payment opening & squeezed my hand.

    The change will come Sunday night or early Monday morning. +1 million votes for HCR!!!

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Anonymous3:31 PM

      There is no doubt in my mind that Capriles landslide will prevent any fraud/coup. Chaverment, at this point, still half believes its own lies. It is too hard for these arrogant people to comprehend what is going on. They have been in denial about the seismic shift that many of us already felt since the primaries, so they will need a while to overcome the shock. If we are lucky, that will be midnight.

      Then, a new era begins. And the real challenge.

      Maria

      Delete
  18. Anonymous12:15 PM

    Different Anonymous

    Don't you worry that PSUV will and the electoral commission will just fudge the #s totally? Afterall there is a computer system involved and the Cubans have a vested interest here in keeping Hugo in power. So they fudge the election, Chavez wins 52/47 or something like this. Capriles calls foul, they go to count ballots and there is some chaos, lost ballots and whatnot, but that is 5 to 9 months later, meanwhile is Hugo even alive? What then? PSUV Junta and 'caretaker' government... Tell me why they just can't fool the computers and have CNE stamp it as official. Protests will just die away a few months later??

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Anonymous1:11 PM

      to see results Vicente Diaz must be there, and the oppo representatives in tot. room as well. Results are encripted and every CNE rep. has a password, when all passwords are in place the servers tell the results. So theres no way they can put fake results in there.... All the system has been extensively audited....

      Delete
  19. Sometimes I feel that these rumors that so wildly circulate is in fact a subconscious expression of people that want the election to fail....

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    1. margareth3:42 PM

      No Daniel. Some computer nerds in the Netherlands showed that they could enter into the system, from then on its voting by red pencil. There are several countries who don't use voting machines.

      Delete
    2. margareth4:03 PM

      I found this link about e-voting in the Netherlands

      http://www.prodemos.nl/content/download/5147/25693/file/Electronic%20Voting%20in%20the%20Netherlands.pdf

      Delete
    3. Margareth

      My comment was about no one in every in particular. I am just tired of hearing so many of such comments.

      This being said. Hackers may indeed come in and do all sorts of things. But there is a box with the paper ballots and that tally must match the electronic one. That is, for a hacker to tamper he needs to print ballots from a remote position and have that match. It is easier to just stuff the box of the opposition has no witness.

      Delete
  20. I have been looking at your predictions from time to time and find them interesting but I also have problems to trust them. The thing is that I don't understand yet what is the methodology you use to change the percentage of advantage from Chávez to Capriles every time yo do so. Is it your perception? Is it a linear combination of polls? Would you label your method as scientific or speculative?

    ReplyDelete
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    1. There is no trust needed. Nor I am asking for it as I am an amateur and if pollsters fall on their face regularly, I cannot be far behind.

      I start with trends study, but I am not a slave of them. That is, I use my political, geographical, ethnographic knowledge of Venezuela's areas (that is why I do not classify my states in alphabetical order or from the larger to the smaller). I try to use my political and historical knowledge to figure out at which time the asymptotic line will stop the growth of the trend line.

      Then it becomes a guts and guess work based on local news, national trends and only marginally on polls which I find very unreliable in Venezuela. I use only C21, Data, Varianzas and Keller, and for trends only.

      Only pollsters payed for their work can afford a "scientific" method, I cannot as I work alone.

      So yes, it is a unique method that takes quite a lot of work anyway. If I keep doing it it is because I have been getting better and better at it! In 2006 I was still too instinctive and not enough self critical. If I predicted Rosales defeat I blundered in putting it at 3%..... In 2007 I thought the referendum would not pass, though admittedly it was largely due on faith.

      By 2008 I was starting to have enough data to correct my previous mistakes and I got the regional elections at an acceptable level, messing Cojedes but insisting on Caracas with Ledezma that nobody believed me with.

      In 2009 I did not really predict much because I could not deal with the stupid referendum, but in 2010 I was one of the very few people who predicted that we would be getting between 65 and 70 seats!!!!!! No pollster got as good as I did.

      The next one was more difficult as it was a primary. Yet, all along I wrote that participation was going to be above 2 million and maybe up to 3. Which almost nobody got, though Datanalisis got at least the % number for Capriles. Then again that was no big feat as all thought Capriles was going to win.

      But this time around it will be my last prediction as my system has reached its course. If Capriles wins the political presumptions I am based on (mostly a opposition union front) will cease soon when chavismo loses almost all governors in December. Divisions will start by the time we roll to municipal elections in April and then my system will crash.

      I have been very lucky on latching in a consistent and coherent method because the country is very polarized, so trend lines have a meaning, and I make a big effort to get a regional pulse. But once the opposition divides in front of a much weakened chavismo I will not be able to keep the pulse and the trend lines will be over.

      And if Chavez wins then I will have better things to do planning my escape from the country than looking at electoral numbers.

      And yes, since August I change my state numbers at will on my instinct and local knowledge. That is why I publish percentage than the actual numbers I work with though you certainly can deduct them if you do the math. But my first prediction of August was fully based on my long term method and my analysis of the primary results published last April. I will have you know that this blog is the only place where you will find extensive post election analysis and that is what one needs to do if one wants to be able to understand truly trend lines, something that I do not think pollsters do that well. Those analysis are the real secret of my method, the only way not only to know your electoral map, but also to feel it, literally.

      Delete
    2. By the way, thanks for the question. No one ever asked and I did not want to make a long boring post about it. This way, even if quickly written, it is on record.

      If you want to understand better my work read my posts on caucaguita.......

      Delete
    3. "I will have you know that this blog is the only place where you will find extensive post election analysis and that is what one needs to do if one wants to be able to understand truly trend lines, something that I do not think pollsters do that well. Those analysis are the real secret of my method, the only way not only to know your electoral map, but also to feel it, literally."

      truer words never spoken

      Delete
  21. Thanks a lot. Your answer is complete and satisfies my curiosity. Cheers

    ReplyDelete

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