Friday, March 16, 2018

We are going somewhere

But we do not where, nor do we/I care much, to tell you the truth.

Yes, it is time for a quickie survey on how close to the abyss we stand. I shall be brief. Promise.

Chavismo is trying to make the coronation of Maduro palatable.

They did everything they could, but nothing that actually could help. They tried to postpone by a month so that the Opposition would have more time. They asked for the UN to send an observation mission (knowing that the delays made it impossible even if the UN were so inclined). They even pulled out of the opposition a pliable candidate that could make the case of being the lone option for a peaceful transition. But it all came crashing this week with the suicidal photo op of Henri Falcon in NY with Moncada  And yet there are some that beg us to consider Henri Falcon more seriously. After all, he is even mentioning the D word, dollarisation of the economy, as if that was easy to do, as if the US did not want guarantees before they flew you plane loads of greenbacks.  An example of this forgiveness toward Falcon was this tweet from Kejal Viyas, who should know better, saying that the picture did not show up in Guarico so it would have little impact. True, but Falcon cannot win in Guarico, a state too indentured to chavismo. Falcon, to win, needs to carry massively where the photo has been seen, Caracas, Valencia, Maracaibo and, gasp, Barquisimeto.

So chavismo is cruising toward victory even as it is falling apart.  The international sanctions seem to bear their first fruits as chavismo is now arresting military officers at soon a daily rate.  What can speak louder in a narco military regime than the military unable to hide its inner conflict?  Just as more sanctions are on the making we also see the sanction givers stopping considering what goes on inside Venezuela to calibrate the extent and timing of sanctions.  The point here, that apparently even too many inside the opposition are failing to grasp, is that the free world cannot accept the first formal narco state and all the consequences that goes with such a monstrosity.  The British in the opium war would come to be seen as child's play.

Which brings us to the opposition.

It may be bottoming out at last. The best think that could have happened for the opposition is for Falcon to run on his own accompanied by some of the worst losers in our history. True, Maduro will win by a CNE sponsored landslide (they will not resit the temptation to inflate numbers, mark my words) but we may finally see the rise of a cleaner, leaner, more meaningful opposition. Though the creation of that "Frente Amplio" may abort once again the emergence of a real opposition.

The crudest acknowledgment of this came from the clear headed OAS secretary Almagro who is now hated all across the political board in Venezuela since he dares to be more concerned about Venezuela's freedom than Venezuelan themselves. In Spain he said the following today in Madrid:

“We all knew that Henri Falcon was going to be an instrument of the bolivarian government to divide the opposition and his bid proved it so".

“The candidate Henri Falcon profits to chavismo. We had asked the Venezuelan opposition to separate the wheat from chaff and Falcon is the chaff that went of its own"

Pretty strong damning condamnation of Falcon if you ask me.

So we are left to see if these people of the Frente Amplio Nacional Venezuela Libre are going to get something done by May 20 to make boycott of elections worth its salt.

Hasbeens to wannabes with a sprinkling of the real thing.

If you ask my opinion I doubt it. The problem here is not of cure but of diagnostic. If you do not have the right diagnostic then you are likely going to apply the wrong cure. As long as the whole opposition does not scream out dictatorship in unison and is not willing to make the necessary sacrifices, well, you know----   watch the last two decades.....


  1. Island Canuck8:06 AM

    It's been obvious this week that Falcon is a tool of Chavismo.
    In addition to the deadly photo and travelling with government representatives there has been a flood of Google AdWords ads for him flooding the local internet scene.

    These ads are only payable in hard currency (US$ or Euros).
    From the numbers the cost must be high.
    I would bet everything that they are being paid with Chavista money.

    Voting for Falcon is voting for more PSUV.

  2. Your Post has alot of positism in it! Maybe Chavismo strangles itself, in time.

  3. Well written post as usual! Thanks Daniel!

  4. The regime has been swirling around the toilet bowl in a toilet that won't flush for a long time now. The world can all clearly see the piece of shit the regime is, let's hope they more forcefully step in and help fix the toilet.

  5. Tom in Oklahoma4:14 PM

    Ash....that floating "log" will never go down the toilet unless and until a skilled plumber arrives! I'm hoping that Pompeo has a roto-rooter in his bag of tools!

  6. Can't wait to see what economic sanctions are next, after the mega-fraud. Hopefully Pompeo will convince congress to go all out, and boycott all gas/oil trade, no more $35M in cash everyday for the Genocidal Tyranny. While putting heavy pressure on India to stop their own $20M/cash/day, and buy heavy oil elsewhere.

    That would cut about $55M/day, the only legal cash the Criminal Narco-regime gets to bribe the corrupt military and plus Millions of enchufados. So they would only have the Drug Trade cash to survive, and bribe only top-top military crooks that support them. No more cash to bribe mid-low military, no more cash for the millions of Enchufados on "ministries", "alcaldias", etc.

    Hopefully that's where they are going first, and it will be interesting. Many military crooks and plenty of enchufados are gonna get real, real pissed off, finally. Then, since the international cash strangulation won't be enough, (Macron and Macri leading the EU and LatAm choke) if Klepto-Cubazuela gets lucky, the DEA and a few US Marines might be gracious enough to pay a brief little visit to the top Narcos on a moonless night.

  7. no marines, not happening. Big decision is vote or not.....gotta think that any expression of rejection of Chavismo is worthwhile, even a vote for Falcon. It's kinda like 'hold your nose and a modest way, one can send a message.
    Military being arrested.....that's something to conjure with......

    1. Tannin you got to keep in mind that it is an electronic voting system that the regime can decide any result it desires my wife is Venezuelan and when she went to renew her passport there is 6 active current passports in her name. Back when Chavez was running in elections my wife's friend worked for the government and was part of organizing bus loads of non Venezuelans to go to multiple voting stations using many identities voting many times for Chavez. Is why the voter turnout was so massive. People can go vote for Falcon who works for the regime and nothing changes as they don't even count the votes they just pick the result which suits their needs. If they want Falcon to win he will win if no one votes for him.

    2. Boludo Tejano4:18 PM

      Smartmatic told the world back in August that the regime had added AT LEAST a million votes to the CNA "election" totals. Venezuela Reported False Election Turnout, Voting Company Says.

      Maduro asks Tibisay Lucena, "How many votes did we get?"

      Tibisay: "How many votes do you want?"

    3. Ash, Boludo, i read you. Still think a vote for Falcon is better than no vote at all. Interested to read that he had been a military officer, making him more acceptable to the military, scenario being, yes the vote is fraudulent and Maduro is declared the winner....followed by civil unrest....followed be military intervention supporting Falcon's claim to be the legitimate winner.
      Currently Falcon is running ahead of Maduro in polls by 10 %, apparently. If the 'feeling' across much of the country is that Falcon should have been declared the winner.....hold onto your hats.
      Would Falcon be better than Maduro ? No idea, but he could hardly be worse. Venezuela needs a new leader, and, currently, Falcon is the only possibility; go for it for heavens sake. Venezuelans must vote for change, whatever the risks.
      Daniel, i hope you and your S.O. will decide to vote for the only possibility of change that's on offer.

    4. Tannin I understand your thinking and may have logic to it. But most believe Maduro I'd just the face of a bigger power and voting in Falcon would do nothing more then change that face. Issue being it would be a massive setback for removing the regime behind the face as the world would be forced to support Falcon or at minimum stop its actions that are strangling the regime. Would be years just to get back to the point they are at now. The regime desires Falcon to be the face of the opposition for many reasons, but mostly as a back up plan to their likely demise in the next 12 months. If Maduro goes down to Falcon following his demise the regime lives on. No prosecution for the crooks, nothing really changes for the people just a reset on world resistance.

  8. Anonymous9:28 AM

    tannin, so it is either Maduro or Falcon for the next 6 years? Are those the only 2 options? You need to think outside the box.

  9. The regime still has a number of cards to play if the pressure on Maduro gets to be too much. Henri Falcon, Military intervention, another PSUV leader etc. All can buy it time by slightly altering its direction. The only way the regime is ever eliminated is if there is a true unbiased election, in which they could likely run another candidate unknown to the public with Charisma and still win another 6 years since all the opposing parties are such a mess.

  10. Tom in Oklahoma5:07 PM

    Is there any validity to reports by the regime that the U.S. is conducting flyovers of Venezuelan airspace from Hato Airbase in Curacao? I know they keep some AWACS there for anti-drug operations but I suspect that this is more BS being put out there by the regime but I suppose there is a chance that it is true. Maybe the U.S is hoping that Venezuela would be foolish enough to fire on one of these AWACS.

  11. Tom in Oklahoma5:28 PM

    The regime is claiming the flyover planes are Boeing C-17 Globemaster heavy transports. Sounds like BS to me. I could maybe believe AWACS for surveillance purposes but not heavy transports.

  12. VP Mike Pence of the USA will speak to the OAS on Venezuela today!

  13. I appreciate your comments Ash, Boludo and Anonymous, and you may well be right....anyway, i have the luxury of not living in Venezuela, and accept that anyone living there has a better idea of the current reality in V. than i do. I fear a real confrontation anonymous, which is why i'm still thinking inside the box. Ultimately, if inside the box thinking does not resolve the challenges, Venezuelans will indeed think, and 'act' outside the box, with all the carnage that might lead to....... desperate people do desperate things. Some branch of the military would step in, and a new chapter would unfold. I assume that everyone on this blog has been hoping for a peaceful resolution, for a power handover from the chavistas' (presumable, protecting their senior people) that would allow Venezuela to move forward without them. Such a power handover seems more and more remote, and I don't doubt Ash and Boludo that the Falcon run is exactly as they portray it, another way for the regime to hang on.....
    If change is to take place, it will be at the hands of Venezuelans; how change takes place is totally up to Venezuelans. I'm sure the regime is getting increasingly concerned that, somewhere in that wonderful country, unknown to them, plans for change are being shaped. If military are being arrested, the paranoia ..not unwarranted i'm sure, is increasing.


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