Misinformation galore wars: separating the wheat from the chaff

It has been raining political analysis, misplaced opinions, and whatnot, specially from the foreign press, leftists and what not who just learned how to place Venezuela on a map (if that much).

Let's take it in an occamish manner and answer a few questions (keeping in mind idiocies spewed from the left, the leftist press as the worst offender to one's intelligence!)).

Who is Juan Guaido?

What Josep Borrel really meant : a lost country

Spain had what is normal in a parliamentary system: there was a motion vote that ousted the sitting Mariano Rajoy which automatically replaced him with the "leader" of the opposition, Pedro Sanchez.  This one did not reach premiership after last elections since, well, he barely floated around a quater of the vote. But Spain is a country of instituions and Sanchez heads a ministry that is held in place in large part by the good will of very the leftist PODEMOS who is a big, bought, friend of chavismo.

The door opened again.
Borrel and Chavez son in law.

We need to understand this to interpret, in part only, the recent words of Josep Borrel, the new foreign office holder. He said during a meeting with Venezuela's foreign minister, the creep that got there because he married a Chavez daughter, that Spain will not spearhead sanctions against Venezuela anymore and that dialogue should be renewed [english].  Some in Venezuela interpret this as a success, some as a betrayal, both are wrong.

We are going somewhere

But we do not where, nor do we/I care much, to tell you the truth.

Yes, it is time for a quickie survey on how close to the abyss we stand. I shall be brief. Promise.

Chavismo is trying to make the coronation of Maduro palatable.

Something shifted somewhere under someone's feet

Three things happened today that tells us something is brewing inside chavismo.

My important/favorite is defense minister Padrino announcing  that he is against armed colectivos.  You know, those colectivos which are nothing else but paramilitary thugs wearing red shirts and working for the regime. Chavismo version of storm troopers.

The reason was certainly the damaging video out of this weekend maneuvers that went viral and that I tweeted below (I am more active on Twitter than on Blog, the more so that it is easier now to make micro posts in Twitter)

A paramilitary group this week end in Caracas. It does not matter wether you underatand Spanish: the theatrics of violence, hate, intimidation and abuse are crystal clear.
Venezuela as the novel totalitarian state. https://t.co/XTLzRJqEsl

— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) February 26, 2018

Mirada descarnada a la invasión gringa

Esto lo escribo en cristiano porque los gringos saben muy bien que Trump es un bocón. No que en un futuro más bien lejano no nos suelten 4 drones encima, pero simplemente ellos tienen otros asuntos más urgentes que atender en este momento. Aquí les estoy escribiendo a unos cuantos venezolanos que se retuercen en agonía y jolgorio (de ambos bandos) ante un putativo desembarco de Marines.

Antes que todo, cualesquiera sean los fundamentos de una invasión a mi patria, eso significa guerra, poder arbitrario para los dos ejércitos, daños materiales y psicológicos inconmensurables. Siendo profundamente anti-militarista no puedo suscribir a cualquier guerra aunque desafortunadamente hay que aceptar que en ciertos casos no hay opción. Ejemplo, contra ISIS.

A military uprising?

So, instead of writing about substantial things like the fraud constituent assembly deciding that it will be in office for the next two years, taking as its first "measure" the removal from office of the general prosecutor Luisa Ortega and announcing that next week they will set up the inquisition truth commission I have to discuss what was either a failed coup or a stunt show. Your choice, not mine because under no circumstance will I support the Venezuelan corrupt army. Or anything that comes out of it.

What happened this morning in Valencia was suspicious from the start. I learned about it sipping my first cup of coffee and within minutes I was posting that; and assuring the dear reader that under no moment did I got the little bit nervous. It takes me more than that now to get nervous in Venezuela.

From official terror to article 350 - 2) state terrorism reflects chavismo division

The murder yesterday of David Vallenilla hit a new low, and hit a rawer nerve in the population. Murder, yes, point blank shooting murder, as seen in video but not on TV that the regime censors.

El momento preciso en que un GNB dispara contra joven manifestante #EnVIVOplay por: https://t.co/AyLxbCohdr pic.twitter.com/M4MM5LS8S7

— VIVOplay (@vivoplaynet) June 22, 2017

The dictator's hour

So we are in a dictatorship. And this one has made new progress these past days to prove to the world it is so.  We had Sunday a totally infamous presentation by the president Nicolas Maduro where live on TV he decided who is guilty of what and how.  This based on torture.  Yesterday he went further on that path convoking the militia to Caracas to stop the massive opposition protest planned for tomorrow and forcing the army to repeat once again their indefectible oath to the revolution and its heir, the dictator.  As a bonus he promised to arm the militia, which one needs to be recalled , is not constitutional. But details are not the regime's forte.

The army today is controlling all the streets it can and all the entries to Caracas to make sure protesters do not come to fill in Caracas protests. Useless as the opposition is convoking protests in all major cities of Venezuela. You need not go to Caracas to state that Maduro is a piece of shit: you can do it in the comfort of your own city where repression awaits for you all the same than in Caracas. Decentralization at its best.

Week 2 of the dictatorship: assorted pelting

The sensation yesterday was Maduro in San Felix receiving egg on his face, literally. Though I doubt it was egg considering their price and the lack of food.  Make that rotten eggs and stones and dog shit as the more likely projectiles.

Venezuela president heckled by crowd while visiting the provinces. Opposition says nowhere is safe for him anymore https://t.co/NaoS9y7Pj9 pic.twitter.com/BTxON6vUCC

— Hannah Dreier (@hannahdreier) April 12, 2017

There we are not, at freedom

Long time I did not write a summary of what is going on. As usual there is a big yawn along as everything changes fast but everything is, in the end, the same: a gang of thugs will do whatever it is possible to retain power because they know what awaits them once they lose. Nevermind the culture of violence that goes with such mentality where only brute force is the argument. Negotiation? Only to gain time until I finally find a way to screw you once and for all.

When the statist state runs out of ideas (and other's people money)

AS expected the rise of general Vladimir Padrino as co-president of Maduro has changed nothing. After all Venezuela has been a dictatorship for a while, of a new XXI century kind certainly, but a dictatorship nevertheless. It was all just a formality.

Padrino cannot succeed in his attempt at putting food on the table of Venezuelans. His multiple inspections, in combat drag, of food producers have revealed no scandal so far, no hoarding, no lack of manufacturing will. The reason why there is no food production in Venezuela is simple, it is because there is nothing to make food out of.

For better or for worse, and with chavista bred officers it is likely for worse, Padrino seems to have been put there to prepare, or chair, a transition out of Maduro's mess. We already have the first signs on how doomed this might be as clashes between radicals and pragmatists, military and civilians have come to the forefront this past week.

Ways out of the mess, doubtful all, military for sure, recall it ain't

Last I wrote on ways to get out of this mess was June 11 (and April). Things have changed somewhat since these entries. Time to include recent developments.

How long can Maduro hold?

The annulation of the Amnesty Law was so predictable that I did not bother with a post. Twitter was enough. However, what is worth a post is a meditation on how long a kleptocracy cum drug trafficking regime can hold it together.

Tumeremo

The story that has been unfolding in the mining region of Bolivar state is yet a new low for the bolivarian regime. all corruptions, all abuses, all cruelty seem to have somehow managed to meet there.

I am not going to go into details. the executive summary is as follow.

Bewilderment

This is the feeling since I came back. First, I could not believe the visible degradation in supplies in a mere ten days. Today I did my first grocery shopping with my usual non regulated price items and it was, I kid you not, at least 25% above what I paid last time. More worryingly, since I still can afford for the time being, my deli was out of all but the strict basics. That is, no salami, no biscotto ham, etc...That already meager shelf when compared to more civilized countries was simply empty.

But the bewilderment was stronger as I started catching up with the politics. Oh my, oh my....

2013 in review: the year they rubbed in our faces that this is a military dictatorship

We have to grant something to Chavez: he was political enough to be careful to pretend to hide that we were a military dictatorship. For example in very visible posts he put a lot of women that were mere errand boys (chief "justice", attorney general, minister for elections). Real power always rested in his hands and a counted machos, often working in the shadows. And most of them were military with a sprinkling of Cuban attachés like Maduro.  But we knew, the more so if you needed to deal a lot with the high administration, that real power was always behind the desk of some military "on leave".  Without looking further, 12 governors today, 50%, are military or military related. To which you can add the chair of the Nazional Assembly and a few ministers. Nothing major happens in Venezuela without the army knowledge and approval.

Hard blues to shake off

Explanation in text

I have to admit that I have a hard time to recover from the news of the last two weeks. And my deep blues comes in part from that Cassandra syndrome that affects me on occasion. People minimize what I say or feel and I am, unfortunately, proven right later, but too late for any good or any comfort. There is always a Clytemnestra to put our kind out of our misery.

The two news that bear heavily on me are the 1.3 tons of coke through a regular Air France flight, and the looting of a truck over the dead body of the driver. I think that these news were covered barely adequately but I fail to sense a feel of outrage, even among readers of this blog. I read here and there stuff that can be summarized as follows: "there has always been looting in Venezuela" or "Air France, Water Spain, Truck Mexico, same difference". It is not. I see those two events as seminal examples on how bad, and doomed?, Venezuela may be.

"Historia de una canción" para "Privados de inteligencia"

Las dos últimas semanas nos han mostrado cuán bajo hemos caído como país. Suponiendo que todavía sigamos siendo un país, una idea de una dureza que me ha dejado deprimido como no lo había estado en bastante tiempo. No tiene sentido discutir los detalles de los acontecimientos recientes: la red está llena de ellos para los que tenían su mente distraída por otros asuntos. Tal vez sea más útil pensar en qué significa todo esto.

Ya no estas mas a mi lado, corazón.

When armies decide

A truly fascinating analysis that applies so well to Venezuela that it leaves one's mind reeling.  In this NYT article we can read how the army was in the end the main decider for the political fate of all countries and how in some cases (China notably) it shot people, remained in control and became the main economic power.

Rocio San Miguel: how heroes renew themselves

It seems that chavismo is going too far and more and more people are willing to take a stand and try to stare down the beast.  We had Oswaldo Alvarez Paz who was not afraid to go and spend 52 days in jail until finally last week the regime relented and figured out that it was better for now to have in out of jail than in from an opinion crime.  And we have more.