Yes, it is time for a quickie survey on how close to the abyss we stand. I shall be brief. Promise.
Chavismo is trying to make the coronation of Maduro palatable.
They did everything they could, but nothing that actually could help. They tried to postpone by a month so that the Opposition would have more time. They asked for the UN to send an observation mission (knowing that the delays made it impossible even if the UN were so inclined). They even pulled out of the opposition a pliable candidate that could make the case of being the lone option for a peaceful transition. But it all came crashing this week with the suicidal photo op of Henri Falcon in NY with Moncada And yet there are some that beg us to consider Henri Falcon more seriously. After all, he is even mentioning the D word, dollarisation of the economy, as if that was easy to do, as if the US did not want guarantees before they flew you plane loads of greenbacks. An example of this forgiveness toward Falcon was this tweet from Kejal Viyas, who should know better, saying that the picture did not show up in Guarico so it would have little impact. True, but Falcon cannot win in Guarico, a state too indentured to chavismo. Falcon, to win, needs to carry massively where the photo has been seen, Caracas, Valencia, Maracaibo and, gasp, Barquisimeto.
So chavismo is cruising toward victory even as it is falling apart. The international sanctions seem to bear their first fruits as chavismo is now arresting military officers at soon a daily rate. What can speak louder in a narco military regime than the military unable to hide its inner conflict? Just as more sanctions are on the making we also see the sanction givers stopping considering what goes on inside Venezuela to calibrate the extent and timing of sanctions. The point here, that apparently even too many inside the opposition are failing to grasp, is that the free world cannot accept the first formal narco state and all the consequences that goes with such a monstrosity. The British in the opium war would come to be seen as child's play.
Which brings us to the opposition.
It may be bottoming out at last. The best think that could have happened for the opposition is for Falcon to run on his own accompanied by some of the worst losers in our history. True, Maduro will win by a CNE sponsored landslide (they will not resit the temptation to inflate numbers, mark my words) but we may finally see the rise of a cleaner, leaner, more meaningful opposition. Though the creation of that "Frente Amplio" may abort once again the emergence of a real opposition.
The crudest acknowledgment of this came from the clear headed OAS secretary Almagro who is now hated all across the political board in Venezuela since he dares to be more concerned about Venezuela's freedom than Venezuelan themselves. In Spain he said the following today in Madrid:
“We all knew that Henri Falcon was going to be an instrument of the bolivarian government to divide the opposition and his bid proved it so".
“The candidate Henri Falcon profits to chavismo. We had asked the Venezuelan opposition to separate the wheat from chaff and Falcon is the chaff that went of its own"
Pretty strong damning condamnation of Falcon if you ask me.
So we are left to see if these people of the Frente Amplio Nacional Venezuela Libre are going to get something done by May 20 to make boycott of elections worth its salt.
|Hasbeens to wannabes with a sprinkling of the real thing.|
If you ask my opinion I doubt it. The problem here is not of cure but of diagnostic. If you do not have the right diagnostic then you are likely going to apply the wrong cure. As long as the whole opposition does not scream out dictatorship in unison and is not willing to make the necessary sacrifices, well, you know---- watch the last two decades.....