Monday, September 27, 2010

Claiming my own little personal victory: 64 to 69

OK, it is still a little bit too early to claim my own personal victory in that result guessing system but overall I am pretty pleased with myself.  Considering how daunting it was to go case by case in the different districts, and how unforgiving turned out to be my variometer I did pretty well, predicting that the opposition would get 69.  It will get, if all is as I assume it will go, 64.  As such I do not know of any other prediction that got as close to the final number.  Note: I did my prediction without safety net, that is I assumed that PPT and chavismo are the same and forgot about the indigenous representatives, only MUD direct seats were counted.

In no particular order of hits and miss, a list that might require further revision as final data finally becomes available:
  • The total number of votes.  For those of you who got my last minute simple variometer you will read that when the default variation is set to 0 the opposition is getting 5.033.249.  The CNE gives for the Parlatino vote 5.054.114. The model gave chavismo 5.140.275 and the Parlatino count is 5.222.364.  Kind of spooky if you ask me...  But of course these are not the final numbers nor are they those one could deduct from the individual districts which will likely be higher.  What maters is that I got the spread between the MUD and the PSUV, the heart of my study (the claim fo 52% for the opposition comes from adding PPT, MUD and whatever else, a valid claim but requiring adequate qualifications, to be discussed in future posts).
  • In individual states I got with high scores 11 states, with passing grade 4 states and I really flunked only in Anzoategui and Bolivar.
  • But if I go to some of my intuitions and educated guesses that I reported in my regional studies, but that did not show up in the strict harshness of my model, I did better because I can include my hunch that Cumana would go opposition, for example, or that in Lara I was not certain that PPT would make it, that it should not get more than 4 out of 10 when it got 0 (I did predict the three opposition seats it would gain in Lara, by the way, it was only the difficulty at judging the PPT-PSUV contest that I had trouble).  I also like my Guarico prediction: [Guarico] is a very interesting case as it is the only other state outside of Lara where the PPT has a chance to do something. That is, if it manages to make a pact with the opposition because divided, even with a calamity like William Lara as a governor, the PSUV can still get it all.As it did.
Thus I am leaving it as is right now because I have lots of data to pour over until I can decide how good I really was.  But bear with me if I can already be a little bit proud with myself.....


      1. You did damn well, Daniel, and tweak it as you may, although interesting, it won't make much difference.

        For me, the important things are (a) the PSUV got less than a majority of the votes, (b) the rampant gerrymandering is well known even outside Venezuela, (c) the PSUV lost its super majority and (d) Chavez' place on the world stage may well continue its decline.

        I was up until after 3:00 this morning awaiting the election results -- relying heavily on your analyses and blogging the election results and those of others -- and finished an article to be published, soon I hope, on the four points noted above. I think Chavez is nuts, and said this at the beginning of the article:

        Christopher Hitchens observed a few weeks ago that el Presidente Chávez, whom he had visited in 2008 along with Chávez' close friend Sean Penn and whose antics he still follows, is barking mad. As Hitchens put it,

        Chávez . . . is very close to the climactic moment when he will announce that he is a poached egg and that he requires a very large piece of buttered toast so that he can lie down and take a soothing nap.

        Unfortunately, a nap is not what Chávez has in mind. Maybe he will have a greater opportunity to nap after the 2012 elections.

        That the PSUV got a simple majority may well defuse a lot of the finger pointing at the opposition during the 2012 election as might well occur if the Republicans get a majority in the U.S. Congress this year.

        Many thanks for your analyses and commentaries.

      2. Saludos mon ami Daniel.

      3. "As such I do not know of any other prediction that got as close to the final number."

        Spare a thought to this fellow blogger of yours, who, without variometers, swing-o-meters, district analysis, poll analysis, or any of that, predicted that the opposition would get about a third of the assembly (that would be what Chavez would allow to cede to the opposition).

        So don't claim victory just yet. As per where I made my prediction, it was live, on a BBC World Service program.

      4. 1979 Boat People10:32 PM

        What is he talking about?

        Fidel Castro's Reflection: What They Want is Venezuela’s Oil

      5. Outstanding job, Daniel. I learned a lot from your analysis, ty.

        Opposition to chavism losted more than just years with the 2006 Aventino, now is time to look forward.

        My best wishes to Venezuela.

      6. Feather is alive!



      7. Roger4:42 AM

        Could be CNE stole your math and loaded it into their computer model!
        Their on a tight budget you know.


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