Tuesday, October 18, 2011

The day Leopoldo Lopez lost his presidential bid?

UPDATED Leopoldo Lopez has, in my very humble opinion, made a major mistake today.  His reply to yesterday TSJ sentence plays straight into Chavez hands.  Leopoldo simply states that the TSJ has validated his rights to run and he will do so, ignoring the second part that he may not be able to take office if he wins.

Leopoldo López 
Ayer el TSJ tambien ratifico mis derechos politicos. Asi que voy a presentarme como candidato a la Presidencia de la Republica

I think his timing is wrong and could cost him the primaries making his fight irrelevant in the end.

If he indeed wants to do that and if it is indeed the best political response to the TSJ disgrace, such an announcement should be made with representing members of La Unidad, as a joint decision to confront the TSJ.  I do know personally that Leopoldo will not wreck the Unidad and that he will step back if he does not win, so that is not my concern.  What should be concerning him is that today he comes across as a prima donna and that will cost him support for February.  This is not about him alone, something he has kept saying all the time and that for some reason (momentary bitterness I hope) he seems to have forgotten today.


Tuesday night Leopoldo was a guest at Alo Ciudadano where he could explain his position better.  That is, since the TSJ ruled that he could run for office, he was going to do so.  He stated, justifiably in a way, that this was the reason he went to the IACHR, to get the right to run for office and the TSJ implicitly acknowledged that the IACHR.  That he may take office is another question which was not in the docket at the IACHR.

Thus is strategy is call the the bluff of the TSJ and see if they will dare refuse to hand him the presidential sash were he to win the election.  In other words, he decided to confront the system.

I am in agreement basically with that position except that I would have felt much better had he expressed his strategy from the Unidad headquarters rather than on his own.  The image would have been strong because 1) the thrown gauntlet would have been from all opposition and 2) he would have stressed that he was doing his own challenge but respecting the eventual unity of the opposition at the end, around him or not.


  1. He is stomping his feet. Too bad...It's showing his not mature enough for the task ahead.

  2. A. Barreda4:05 PM

    I liked what you suggested in your previous post about the subject, but it seems as it was just wishful thinking.

    He has fought really hard to get what he has earned, and he's entitled to keep fighting.

    Besides, none of the candidates will take LL as VP because he is to vocal to play such a low-key role.

    As for his decision disturbing the MUD, I don't see things that way. He will run and I believe that he will offer his suppor to the winner if he lose.

    A primary without LL, that would be a disappointment for many...

  3. "a primary without LL, that would be a disappointment for many.."
    True, unless he and the MUD are quick to point their fingers to the goverment and he guves his support to someone else., asking them to vote for him/her. That way, all the "dissapointed" will turn their feeling into anger against the goverment and use their vote as punishment.

  4. I don't agree with you Daniel. I think LL is testing the system.I actually agree this time with what he is doing.

  5. bruni

    i am not saying that the system should not be tested. in fact i agree that it should be challenged fully. what concerns me is that apparently leopoldo has decided to take the system on in an issue that also affects the Unidad. thus it woudl have looked better had he announced him continuing his electoral bid after at least a meeting with some folks of the Unidad.

    anyway, if you were following me on twitter you woudl have read my comments tonight on his appearance at alo ciudadano where i write that i understand him better now and approve what he is doing.

  6. In the confusing situation in Venezuela created by Chavismo,acting only when you have clear rules and guarantees, would paralyze many initiatives.Even if LL would opt for not running because of a lack of clear groundrules, the next person in line would become the new focus of Chavista intrigues to disqualify him.

    So it is better to work with the circumstances we have and for LL to run and deal with consequences as they arise.In addition, Chavez’s uncertain health condition may create a different panorama at any moment.


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