Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Medical malpractice or succession wars?

Readers know that I have refused to indulge in useless Chavez cancer guessing.  But the issues keep raising more and more and Chavez has become that lady that protesteth too much.  The latest installment in the saga is so weird that I had to report on it in spite of my better judgment.

The thing is that there is that Dr. Navarrete, a surgeon in a private clinic in Caracas with a respectable resumé.  The guy was called, which is normal, to form the regular presidential team.  That was pre 2002 and he was the lone chavista in the team according to him (was he the implied leader?  he does not tell).  From these years he retained many items.  (Three that marked me).

  • Chavez is bipolar and has been treated for it for years.  No surprise, any amateur psy could have come to that diagnostic. I think I have been writing since 2004 that Chavez has problems.
  • Chavez is an austerity maniac at his personal level and even though his speeches are rambling his room is always very organized and unencumbered with paraphernalia (then again he might have a maid or something for that).  Apparently he is also very meticulous with his appearance, always kept, even the nails well manicured.
  • He never wanted a colonoscopy.  Which makes us understand that already then there was suspicion that he had a problem.
All fits well with his character, a mere confirmation of what we supposed.  The rest I did not care as much because since 2003 Chavez has stopped consulting Venezuelan doctors and has had a Cuban only entourage.  That is, the colonization by Cuba started in earnest in 2003 not only at Chavez consent but at Chavez request likely.  And yet Dr. Navarrete claims to still be enough in the loop to give the current Chavez diagnostic and predicting 2 years survival rate for the cancer he has.

Of course, immediately I wondered why he chose a Mexican magazine for these confessions, why he decided to breach the patient doctor confidentiality just right now, without accounting for it in his interview.  I mean, really accounting for it.  Something must be afoot because my twitter feeds claim that tomorrow he will be taken into custody.  Why not today already since the interview came out this week end?  Why has he not left the country since he knows that he will be at the very least interrogated?  Reminder: Rafael Caldera put an astrologer into jail becasue he predicted his imminent death which happened a decade later....  Navarrete cannot have forgotten that episode.

If you ask me it is all very weird even though so many pieces fall into place so splendidly.  So, what is going on?
We could think positively and consider that Navarrete is right and concerned about the country's future and decided to come out with his tale to force Chavez to fess up.

Or he got paid handsomely, but that would require a lot of money I presume  because the guy was a well respected practician.

Or a faction of chavismo wants Chavez to fess up and speed the transition, which is the lone explanation that would make sense for me.  They told him to take the plunge, to put up with some unpleasantness but that he would be well compensated later.  Now, who may that be?

The Cubans using a Venezuelan forward to allow them to keep a low profile as they have decided to ditch Chavez?

The military that are more an more uneasy about all the problems Chavez is bringing to the country?  That military possibility is interesting because Navarrete calmly states coldly that if Chavez dies they will have to take power temporarily.  Just like that. "El Presidente puede morir y los militares tendrán que tomar el poder por un tiempo"  How comes he knows/advances that?

This is how cynical Venezuela has become.  Besides the possible veracity of that account it is certainly a tell tale sign of the times we live here when medical secret is tossed over casually and military take over is simply expected.


  1. Anonymous8:15 AM

    The guy was called, which is normal, to form the regular presidential team. That was pre 2002 and he was the lone chavista in the team according to him (was he the implied leader? he does not tell). From these years he retained many items.jyotishi

  2. We cynical? Nahh! How could we be cynical? Daniel, s.t.p! We are just convolutedly candid citizens.
    You asked the right questions. Unfortunately, we don't have the answers yet. Non-curiously enough, Chavistas haven't uttered a single word upon this.
    Is the open letter signed by such people as ex-Chavista and repudiated Fuenmayor (ex UCV rector) real?

  3. One question. How long can chavez be dead in cuba before it is verified in Venezuela? I expect he will die several weeks, possibly more than a month before he actually dies, according to cubans. they must be shaking in their boots.

  4. Island Canuck2:32 PM

    Chavez will never be dead.

    His twitter account will continue & his electronic signature will create new laws.

  5. Well, Canuck: you just need about 12 hours of good quality recordings to generate a very good text-to-speech module for any voice these days. We must have like 16000 hours of Chávez's speeches. With that and a random phrase generator you can have a virtual Chávez.

  6. Anonymous3:58 PM

    The Cubans are just waiting for a Chavez clone to reach maturity. The problem is, how many clones did they make?

  7. RabbiBulla4:55 PM

    Chavez going and returning from some "fantasy place"(Paradise with
    Raul and Fidel)-Chavez IS the
    cargo plane- carrying everything with him and always promising to return with more...re. cargo cult..
    First it was Allo Presidente,
    now it is Allo Cargo Plane..

  8. I don't believe that an anti-Chavez military faction would be behind this,
    as this incident pressures Chavez to define and consolidate his succession.

    An anti- Chavez military faction would have a better opportunity if Chavez dies without a clear successor and in the ensuing crisis they get an opening to take over.

    It is understandable from Chavez's viewpoint that he is reluctant to choose a successor as it would imply
    confessing to his own weakness/mortality and turn him into a lame duck president.For someone with an ego the size of Chavez and total addiction to power, this is not an attractive proposition.

    The most likely Chavista faction to be behind this would be the one that feels strongest to take over in case of Chavez's death, but resent the uncertainty created by not being openly announced by Chavez, thus allowing for a potential crisis situation at this death where other factions might out maneuver them and take what they consider what they consider is rightfully theirs.

  9. RabbiBulla5:23 PM

    I believe it is just "clown drama" to steal the audience attention away from the opposition. Chavez remains "front and center" in everyone's mind-day and night-(except noone is connecting to issues concerning the election)-
    the drama continues -I hear Dr. Navarette is being detained.

  10. Kepler said:

    "Well, Canuck: you just need about 12 hours of good quality recordings to generate a very good text-to-speech module for any voice these days. We must have like 16000 hours of Chávez's speeches. With that and a random phrase generator you can have a virtual Chávez."

    Ha ha ha ha!! Brilliant! I can imagine a kind of Max Headroom, computer generated character, with jerky motion and frequent malfunctions, where he gets stuck in the middle of a word: "...contra el imperialilililililili... una refinería en China..."

  11. No one seems to have the testosterone to say what they might be thinking:

    Thugo Chavez GONE. One way or another. The sooner, the better.

    That's, of course, up to the higher powers that be. Just a couple reminders:

    How many get killed every week in Vzla? (compare that to Iraq or Afghanistan), What about if, God forbid, one of our dear friends or family members are severely hurt, directly because of this brutal Chavez regime?

    How many people's quality of life went down dramatically, from middle-class to barely surviving, with incalculable health-related consecuences, especially for the not-so-young, since this ailing bolivarian.. guy grabbed power in Vzla?

    Who's really praying every night for Thugo's well-being? but that's up to nature. Let's just say, the longer this dictator is breathing, and in power, the longer many other of our people won't breathe or live nearly as decently as they could. No joke. How many are gonna be dead next weekend while Chavez keep making jokes?


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