Tuesday, October 04, 2011

Keller gives the first poll where Chavez loses decisively

My once upon a time favorite pollster, Alfredo Keller, came back to the forefront by giving the first poll that states that Chavez alleged high numbers are mere sympathy for the sick man, but that on the voting ring he loses by more than 10% against an opposition unity candidate.  He also states that Capriles is ahead for the primaries but that Perez is going up and that Maria Corina strong anti crime platform is starting to bring her dividends. With three more months of primary campaign left the situation seems to be more fluid than what it was a month ago where the coronation of Capriles was assumed and made salivate more than one PJ member.

We cannot form a real opinion of the poll as long as we do not see its details, nor will I renege my position that polls are not very telling in Venezuela even if this might start to change some as people are more willing to express dissatisfaction with the situation.  However there are two points that do deserve attention, and which are more important than whether Chavez is at 39% (he will never get below 35%, he is a religion) or Capriles is ahead.

The first thing is that the general dissatisfaction against the regime governing style and "achievements" is now solidly and consistently above 50% whereas the satisfaction (hard core chavismo) keeps decreasing at less than 20% now! This is the real bad number for chavismo, even if Chavez is its candidate.  In fact, it is almost enough of a reason to dump him from the ticket and put another guy, just like the PSOE did in Spain by putting Rubalcaba instead of Zaptero for next month parliamentary elections.  Maybe that is what the Castro colonial masters are doing, show Chavez the door.....

The other item is something I have been mentioning in the past: come February there will be at most three viable Alternativa Democratica candidates.  This is what Keller is already sensing, no matter how many folks do run for the primaries.  Perez and Capriles are almsot a shoo in in two of these spots, and the third one is being decided these weeks, probably by Christmas if not earlier.  January will be to decide which one of the three will win.

And yes, as of today, taking my cue from El Ciudadano, I think it is better to call the opposition "Alternativa Democratica" or "La Unidad".  I have not made up my choice yet but opposition is now pejorative that it has a majority of the vote, since September 2010 for that matter.


  1. If you just called the man a religion, don´t you think that "rojitos" will expect him to be just like the pope? To leave office with his feet upfront when he can no longer "chew" water.
    I agree that the opposition should be called something different. To dump every peyorative term that is coming from the goverment

  2. Why doesn't the opposition simply focus on Chavez's blatant failures in the past dozen years? Even comparing his performance to all of the previous clowns from AD, Copei, etc.

    In simple terms, so that even poorly educated Chavistas can understand, 5 or 10 basic issues, before and after Chavez:

    Quick, impromptu example from an outside blogger:

    1. Public insecurity (THE most important issue, protecting your family's life): Simple Chart: x-y, 2 or 3 lines, last 3 decades, % of violent assaults and deaths in reference to total population. They should really DRILL Chavez on that, it means people steal, attack and kill a lot more than Ever before, because they are worse of than ever before, and because Chavez lets them.

    You can throw in drug traffic figures, and other forms of crime, especially corruption scandals.

    2/ Unemployment. 3/ Inflation- poder adquisitivo, leading economic indicators, foreign investment, loss of personal property 4/ Public services, electricity, water, sewage and all that mess. 5/ Vias publicas, transito. 6/ Educacion. 7/ Salud (if still alive). 8/Obras publicas 9/ Educacion.10/ Isolation and confrontation with most of the world, the threat of another Cuba, perdida de libertades de expresion, etc.

    Etc. Add that up, on some simple Power Point presentation pal' pueblo: result: the quality of life in Venezuela worse than ever under Chavez for the vast majority. 20 colorful slides would do the trick.
    (Better prepared than this fast improvisation, of course)

  3. Sledge - I have though about that too. The information should go there. There are a couple of problems though:

    1. The poor conuquero in Santa Maria de Ipire can't read, so i don't think a Power Point presentation would do.

    2. You'll get answers like these:

    1.Public insecurity

    Answer: “there is not such thing. It’s all part of a media guerrilla to create chaos”, as they will laugh at you, following Izarra’s example.

    For drug traffic figures, and other forms of crime, especially corruption scandals.

    Answer; “Only the oligarchs and hijitos de papa are the criminals in the country”.

    Unemployment, Inflation- poder adquisitivo (What's that? they will say), leading economic indicators, foreign investment, loss of personal property, Public services, electricity, water, sewage and all that mess, Vias publicas, transito, Educacion. 7/ Salud, Obras publicas, Educacion.

    Answer: “All that we are living right now it’s a consequence of the 4th and the government is working hard to fix it, let them work!”.

    10/ Isolation and confrontation with most of the world.

    Answer: “Chavez is the world leader and all this is the empire who wants to take over our oil, that's all a lie of the CIA.”

    I'm afraid it's a lost battle...

  4. A power point means a computer. Where?

    Flyers. Use flyers. Walk. Distribute.
    I disagree with Carolina.
    I have said it a zillion times. Venezuela's average citizen has a very low education level even for Latin American standards. Still: he/she is not more stupid than anyone else. You can explain one simple chart about murder and people will get it. You do not have to talk in a coarse way. You just have to talk in a simple way. How to do that? There is no way you can do that unless you have already spent some time listening to these people. If you haven't, it's lost time and you did not deserve to be a politician anyway.

    I hope PJ gets the message.
    Again: the target are the cities between 100 000 and 999 999 inhabitants. That's where the clear majority of Venezuelans live

  5. Guys, I meant Power point or Visio or whatever presentation, comiquitas con pedro picapiedra y el chavo del ocho, lo que sea, via Venevision o Telemundo despues de la novela! Flyers could work too, with lots of pictures pa los barrios and minumum text. Or with el Conde del Guacharo explaining to them what the basic chart curves mean, in Marguiriteno puro and with jokes about how many empanaaas de cazon they could buy, if they can't read..

  6. Kepler, believe it or not I am with you.
    Simple flyers with graphics, big numbers, not too many words would work.
    But you need the candidate there talking and explaining them to people. Playing the charisma card, the viejita-hugs, the sincere smile to actually be able to reverse a little the intensive and continuous propaganda that the people have been exposed to.
    Daniel here has said it many times. They have to go out there...with the flyers.

  7. Sorry, I meant Sledge.

  8. I mean Kepler (sorry guys, i'm now laughing at myself and my inability to multitask while at the office)

  9. Back to the topic - I just saw this other poll. What a coincidence that it came the same day?


  10. Nothing beats radio and TV, if you can afford it as an opposition party. 30 seconds before the big telenovela would probably beat a million flyers, although the flyers do work, bio-degradable and all. Except who's gonna get on that mule and deliver them everywhere, barrios caserios..

    In business, we use flyers in certain targeted areas for a specific audience, with limited resources. Venezuela is just too large for that. It would help in public gatherings and such, but the monster media, that even many campesinos have is the freaking radio and TV. Guess the opposition will need some of those filthy and corrupted "petro-dollars" somehow to compete.

  11. RabbiBulla4:45 AM

    I have an idea- poll women only?
    Ask women-if they are tired of Chavez? Ask women-if they want to continue supporting Cuba?
    Ask women-if they support Iran?
    Women can-and should change this election. I am not saying necessarily vote for Maria, but, I believe women can reject Chavez and the voices of women will be heard very clearly-now is the time.


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