Apparently we lost. As I predicted, a high participation favors Chavez. And it was high, very high.
From our mini CNE monitor in New Orleans
Tables hace oficially closed not without contreversy. 250 voters showed last minute. They let 150 of those first there vote. The rest where mostly handicapped people who were slower up the ramp and needed help to get up to voting poll from srreet level.
The consul said too bad not let them in to vote station closed. Huge uproar and commosion heard outside. Currently they are negotiating because CNE in CCS said let them vote.
Update: A few idiots tried to force entry into voting station. Security was forced to closed the doors about 50 handicapped people left without voting
Unoficial word from inside table member in NO: Chavez so far only 1 vote with 52% counted so far
Venezuelans will be the last ones to know....
Reading tweets from Brazil local elections. Apparently they already know hundreds of results, here we need only one and.....
Took a TV break. Blog still down for me but open to many in Venezuela now.
Received scant new resutls and noting to add to previouly said.
CNE in the mythic "totalizacón" room....
It is amazing: I just realized that with such trouble with Internet and waiting for the mini CNE monitors, I have not watched TV and I rely on twitter for all info!!!!!
VNV mini CNE detects so far slight recovery for Chavez from 2010 but big losses from 2006. Capriles about 2010. Too early to claim victory.
First Mini CNE prediction: in Lara the votes of Falcon stayed with him and went for Capriles. I call Lara for Capriles by at least 5 points (I have few results still....)
Some people in Caracas can open. It would be good to know who is their provider...
Use a proxy to watch my blog in Venezuela. open http://www.zend2.com/ and type in my blog address http://daniel-venezuela.blogspot.com/ I suspect foul play!!!!! Please, pass around.
While I wait for my monitors...
This post was by 2PM the most read this year. And the record for page views for a day was smashed at 4 PM and going. Maybe my page is just down, now that I think of it....
Still impossible to open my page.
Mini CNE observers have already results or the idito head of the table refuses to count because Tibisya has not talked to him yet... unfucking believable, it is past 6 PM, there are no voters in line and the guy does not want to close!!!!
Varianzas exit poll give Capriles ahead but it relies on urban states. Caution!!!!
I have received one semi serious exit poll, an amateur operation but as serious as possible. They give 2 to 4 points Capriles ahead.
Again. Take a deep breath.
I can post and it can be read outside Venezuela.
Blogger all but down. Nobody can see my page in Venezuela. Getting my first results for VNV mini CNE
Report of irregularities in centers monitored by VNV mini CNE.
In El Valle a truck circulates around blaring "señoreees no vamos a dejar que nos detengan el procesoooooo". We are not going to let you stop the revolution.
In rural area near Caracas the privacy cardboard are set too low so it is possible to see who you vote for (voting for Chavez makes you lean forward slightly). Sometimes they allow them to be straightened and sometimes they do not.
¡Boté! awful bad pun in Spanish where throw away and vote are pronounced the same.
There were left a trickle of people from the huge crowds of this morning. So it went fast. Details: the PSUV witness did not eat the food that the PSUV brought them.... The MUD people shared their food with them. Reconciliation has started.
On the logs books while they were looking for my page it was obvious that my center had voted at least 80% already with people still coming in.
FIRST result: from my center and other pro Capriles center the opposition is voting en masse.
Tea time now, and some rest. See you at 17:00
Off to try to vote again. On tweeter as of now. Voting has been heavy and I think abstention is going to be around 20%. Good or bad? 2 moth ago it was good for chavismo but now I am not so sure.....
Lunch over. Working on VN&V mini CNE. Looking good as fr as participation. May mean the CNE will close shop at 6 PM. Getting psychologically ready to face voting in an hour or so.
One of the poll on the right is over. I have removed the votes for Chavez which are probably from a couple of people alone. And clearly I have few readers from Zulia.....
I am not surprised that the MUD card, the neutral one, is going to win inside the Capriles camp. At least half of my relatives are using it, even in Caracas. PJ arrogance has a price that fortunately Capriles is not paying.
First Mini VNV CNE. My people are reporting heavy participation and minor problems overcome, at least those who have reported. One of them has even reported an exit poll from an embassy and surprise, surprise, Capriles wins by something like 95% there....
I also got another "exit poll" but I have my doubts as it looked so precise, so hourly, that it has gotta be part of the psy war. Again, do not panic, do not put your faith in outlandish rumors. Remember, VN&V has been given Capriles ahead since August and the latest prediction was AT LEAST 500,000 votes ahead.
Fail! I could not vote, lines at my station way too long to stand at this time of day. I will try again around 3PM. I did drive around and some polling stations had huge lines and some not. There is a correlation, the more Capriles expected the vote, the longer the line. But it may not be what you think.
See, Yaracuy has not used finger print machines since 2004. Knowing full well the high efficacy of the CNE, it is more than certain that most of these finger prints are lost and now it is as if anyone was being finger printed for the first time again. However.... in chavista areas where many receive some state subsidy, all of these recipients have had to give their finger prints digital format over and over again. Hnce lines flow, chavistas vote easily- But my center had the longest lines of all. Why? It is the center that votes the most against Chavez in the state and thus likely the ones with the least registered finger prints. Do I smell a rat?
At any rate, people were waiting and people like me will be back at 3 and wait for as long as needed. I have not been waiting for 14 years to stop now.
A quick shower and off to vote. Behave!
Only tweeter for the next couple of hours.
Out walking the dog, she is desperate...
It looks like a grey day over the country. Rain never good for participation. Still, huge lines everywhere.
Taking care of business for the VNV mini CNE. Receiving fiorst pictures. But since Internet is really, really sucky already, I will put only the very best ones. If any.
Crawl out of bed in a foul mood. After some cold cereal look at my phone to see first messages arriving about "operacion morrocoy" and all sorts of other treacheries in the very few centers I monitor. I am afraid to imagine what is going on elswhere....
Now, "Hay un camino" van drives by blaring. I hate all of them
The chavista assholes are launching fireworks and sounding the trumpet in San Felipe- Considering that I coudl not close an eye before 1 AM....
In pro Capriles big centers they slow down things to a crawl. They think that way people will get tired and go back home. They are idiots but then you already knew that ;-)Delete
Tahnks Daniel, well chosen name I must say.Delete
Daniel if one wants a change....it doesn't matter if it rains or not. "Solo hay un camino, un cambio en Venezuela"ReplyDelete
Again Daniel.....if one really wants "a change" they crawl till the bitter end.ReplyDelete
Good Luck there today, we send you lots of Energy, Peace and lots of Love from Chicago!
My partner and a group of about 200 are going to the Venezuela Consulate in Chicago to vote this morning.
I will try to send you photos!
Native American Indian - Cherokee Tribe
Way off Topic....ReplyDelete
Need to see a picture of the dawg.
In Frankfurt where many venezolanos, never have seen there so many at one time.ReplyDelete
But it was not as much as in Spain or Italy.
@Daniel I send you later on some pictures.
Go! Go! Go!ReplyDelete
Get rid of the Thugrocracy.
Hasta las 5pm (11:30 am en Caracas)en Londres han votado más de 1600 personas de un número total de inscritos de 2000.ReplyDelete
Daniel: "I have not been waiting for 14 years to stop now."ReplyDelete
That's the spirit!!
Two thoughts to give people hope:ReplyDelete
1- The opposition has won 3 of the last 4 elections made in Venezuela. (Won the first referendum, lost the second, won (depending on how you count Henry Falcon) the governor one, and won asamblea.)
2- All the pollsters failed miserably at predicting the number of people going to vote in the oppo primaries. I think the most optimistic one said 2 million would vote, but it was over 3 million. Yes, there's a ton of "hidden votes" for the opposition. Tons of oppo people who simply won't talk to pollsters so they don't even end up on the "NS/NC" column.
Took me exactly 1 hour and 30 minutes to vote (from the time I started to make the line to the moment I walked out of the voting center). For a friend it took just 3 minutes. So, the time frame varies greatly. My center is supposed to be a pro-chavista one, his is supposed to be a pro-MUD one.ReplyDelete
Any change in military presence? I mean, of course they'll be out, but differently from your expectations?ReplyDelete
*thank you for the comments security reduction within VN y V.
Happy Birthday to María Corina Machado! I hope she gets the birthday present MOST of us want! :-)ReplyDelete
Daniel, I am in Venezuela and I can read you. Maybe it's something regional and not national?ReplyDelete
I can also read youReplyDelete
Daniel, thees one center in maracaibo in la pastora, theres nobody inline and when they tried to close the mesas they were told they couldnt, that they had orders to not to close any mesas.ReplyDelete
That part is 100% true, this other part is less trustable, the same source told me that the same order was given to centers in zulia, anzoategui and caracas (this part is only a she-heard, so not 100% true as the first)
I am in Ohio and I can read you. MariaReplyDelete
Check this website (slightly alarmist...) www.robertocarlo14.comReplyDelete
If the polls are open it sounds like chavez may be trying to get laggards in to vote. Desperation?ReplyDelete
greetings from Europe and many, many thanks for all your work. I´ve been following your blog for three years. You`re a hero.
Your blog has always been online today, from outside Venezuela.ReplyDelete
Facebook account too.
I can read you...have been all day!!!...the suspence is killing me....could they just wrap this up and post the numbers already ..jeezReplyDelete
Daniel, I am in Ojeda, Zulia and have been watching your Blog All Day.ReplyDelete
Hope the NEW DAY will soon begin for Venezuelans.ReplyDelete
I read you from ABA in Maracaibo. No issues whatsoever.ReplyDelete
Foul play allright! Noticierodigital has been blocked as well, you should feel proud.ReplyDelete
ABA CANTV from Caracas.ReplyDelete
Daniel, I can reach you just fine from mcbo, just a little slow sometimes, I have entered your website thru cantv and netuno as ISPsReplyDelete
Your link at the devil still works. they only zapped one URL?ReplyDelete
Im in venezuela and entered through Devils linkReplyDelete
I am following you in Calabozo Guarico....CANTV ABA.ReplyDelete
Soria fine with intercable from nueva espartaReplyDelete
Works fine with Intercable from Nueva Esparta.ReplyDelete
I am in the exterior there is no news here. Who is winning?ReplyDelete
I can read you from Atlanta loud and clear.ReplyDelete
I wish I was in Atlanta. Georgia is home!!!Delete
I am in Arkansas. You are the only source of news please keep us informedReplyDelete
My heart and my prayers are with all of Venezuela. May you indeed have your country back!! I am in the US and those of us who are tired of authoritarian rule, no real leadership, and all the lies that those who crave political power seem to thrive upon at the expense of all true patriots, we are all praying for Capriles to be the victor. I am looking to your elections today to be the preview for our own election in November where we will also take back our country. God bless you all for standing for the truth!!ReplyDelete
Connected easily at 7:56 pm from Caracas via ABAReplyDelete
Good Luck, Freedom is important....ReplyDelete
The vote is really close, there's talk about 3% in favor of HCR and that the dark side is trying to switch numbers...ReplyDelete
Small addition but prime info, one voting center in Cabudare closed with Capriles clear winner. By how much? Don't know but Cabudare is Chavista territory.ReplyDelete
Comando Carabobo was just on TV pretty much announcing their victory.ReplyDelete
Capriles is using multiple Twits saying:
Henrique Capriles R. @hcapriles
Calma,cordura,paciencia!Hoy fue una jornada histórica,grandiosa,un pueblo que habló!Sabemos lo que pasó y debemos esperar!Que viva Vzla!
Victory of Capriles in 2nd voting center of Cabudare.ReplyDelete
In Andres Eloy Blanco school in Cumana the 8 tables were won by CaprilesReplyDelete
Globovision.com is down :(ReplyDelete
You can watch Globovision via dailymotion.com.ReplyDelete
No Globo but I still can get you here in Ohio Daniel-MariaReplyDelete
Chicago, USA - I haven't had trouble with your page all day and have been checking about once an hour. El Universal has been slow most of the day.ReplyDelete
Ahora existen dos grandes preguntas: 1) si aceptara el perdedor la derrota, especialmente si hay gritos de trampa y 2) como actuara a la FAN para defender el resultado.ReplyDelete
Segun esta discussion:
la mayoria aun cree que chavez no soltara el poder. Desafortunadamente estoy de acuerdo, el ve su revolucion como un fin sin importar el costo al pais.
1 Chavez vote in NO is the Consul's.ReplyDelete
Los resultados finales fueron alterados desde las maquinas, las actas cuadran, FRAUDE!
Por favor gente de Venezuela despierten. Mientras este Chavez a cargo nunca tendran una eleccion. CNE escupe los numeros que el Cdte les mande. Lo siento por que es una tragedia, pero la verdad es que les han robado la eleccion nuevamente. Hay mucha gente ahi que no puede dejar que haya una eleccion y quedar expuesto a la justicia, comenzando con el Cdte.ReplyDelete
Que fraude ni que mierda. El problema es que los Venezolanos no servimos para nada...54/44...ReplyDelete
Que mierda, la puta madre.ReplyDelete
Te dije que estabas menospreciando la movilización chavista.ReplyDelete
My only hope, Daniel, is that you remain strong. Stay tough. Don't give up. Perhaps now you understand why I wrote so many posts regarding the 'potential' name change (Adan for Hugo) prior to the vote. There will be another election very, very soon. Again, stay strong.ReplyDelete
Daniel, you didn't really address the issue of another election within the year... Although I read well, your need to provide for yourself in these coming years.ReplyDelete
I have a hard time believiing that 80% of eligible voters participated. Something doesn't smell right.ReplyDelete
My sympathy. I'm done!ReplyDelete
La re-puta madre que me parió de las patas, que mierda ven en Chávez????ReplyDelete
Un militarote semi analfabeta, golpista, ladrón y ultra corrupto.
It doesn't matter if there was fraud or not. As long as the Cubans are there, Chavez will never loose.ReplyDelete
Too many closet chavistas ? Or was there a real fraud ? Lets wait for the numbers...ReplyDelete
It's not the cubans. It's as long people are willing to have someone shit on them in exchange for a few "bolivitas"ReplyDelete
The Venezuelan people are simply addicted to free government cheese. The Venezuelan people rather have free things handed out to them than have freedom. Problem is, free government cheese is not really free and must be paid for by somebody. Soon there won't be enough money to go around to pay for this free government cheese. Thatcher said it best, "The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money."ReplyDelete
Daniel, have you seen the letter Uribe retweeted?ReplyDelete
Well Daniel, you messed up with your prediction, but you know what?ReplyDelete
For all the effort you have put into this blog, for having followed the situation in venezuela and, overall, for being a true champ.
Please, don't give up on this blog, because you still have much to say, be it predictions or not, and you sure know that you have a big audience.
If capriles had won, you should have kept writing about the return to normality in venezuela, and in a chavez win scenario, well, as you say "you write the journey of venezuela to a sh*thole" (ok, those arent your words)
As I told my mom, who was devastated by the news, we have to keep struggling, we have to win the regional and mayor elections as to try to trancarle el serrucho a little bit, as you pointed, the turnout had a lot to do with chavez winning, but such a turnout only happens when chavez himself is on the line, the opposition should be more succesful on those elections and it can not afford to do what it did when they lost the referendum in 2004: hand out everything to chavez for the next couple of years.
This time, the oppo is in a MUCH better place than back then, and one thing is to ignore 4-5 states, but with almost half the vote, the opposition can pick up more states and thus making more difficult to the government to ignore or pull a ledezma on them
This is a tough blow, no doubt about it, but we have to keep going on, we must...
A hug from maracaibo
You've done a very good job over the years.
I think a problem here is that the opposition to Chavez starts from the higher-levels in society, and tries to figure out how to create a candidate and coalition that will get 51% of the vote. And one suspects that too many of these planning sessions take place in Miami or even Madrid. This doesn't really convince the bottom two-thirds of the country that they are sincere about not going back to being a playground for the upper classes and a servant of Washington or Wall Street. The argument about an ersatz Chavez is correct, at least in my opinion. So far, you don't even have a Chavez-lite; more like a Lula-lite.
You need a group and candidate who come from the working class, but who recognize that working, studying, saving, and starting businesses are good things. Then you can broaden that base selectively to include some of the oligarchical interests over time, but you need to have many oligarchical families really hate this new party or candidate. That will convince the masses that they are not rich snobs or their water-carriers. And this party should probably be friendlier to those who make a fortune than someone who inherited it.
Good luck. You are going to need it. On the bright side, Chavez as a man is a tough thing to fight, but as a governing system, it has lots of drawbacks. You may be closer to changing the direction of the government than you think.