Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Preposterous pre constitutional pre posturing

The few faithful readers left to this blog would certainly not have been surprised last week when chavismo decided to start "talks" on constitutional programming for the 2013-2019 program of government which must undoubtedly lead to a new attempt at modifying the constitution of 1999.

In a text published on October 21 I explained as clearly as I could that chavismo had to seek a constitutional modification in order to avoid an election were Chavez going to croak before January 2017. amen of seeking to make the presidency hereditary within the Chavez family so as to avoid unpleasant succession wars. I really do not need to add anything to that previous post, except to make limited comments as to the timing and methods chosen by chavismo.

First, curiously chavismo is starting these "constitutional" talks as a ratification of Chavez electoral program. In fact, the ruling party has decided to call its voters to write the actions to be taken for the next 6 years, an interesting acknowledgment that there was no government platform for last month presidential election and that those were strictly about Chavez remaining in office. PERIOD. Though we should at least give them credit for a rather rare hint at candor.....

The real reason for the "constitutional" timing is elsewhere and chavismo also has some candor in admitting it. The thing is that for the 16-December vote chavismo has neither program nor viable candidates. I mean, yesterday I was in Barquisimeto and read a poster for the chavista candidate that read "I voted for Chavez  now, I vote for Reyes Reyes". When this is your argument for been elected.......... and you were already a two term governor.........

What chavismo is trying to do with its "debate constituyente" is to generate a new set of empty promises to try to convince people to go out and vote as they did in October. That they are resorting to such inane actions means that they are not confident that they have enough cash to buy the voters they need, nor that their dismal candidates (in at least a dozen states) have Chavez's pull, the more so that the man seems to have gone into retirement after October 7. Cancer, you know, and campaign self abuse.

At least, let's give credit where credit is due: Chavez has read correctly the October result. Chavez knows that without huge amounts of money spent to buy votes coupled to threats and blackmail, he may not win an election ever gain. So he cannot count on an automatic endorsement of any constitutional reform just because he wants. Now he needs to work it out with the "bases". Quite an interesting change in approach for what looks more and more an ex El Supremo.


  1. Daniel, it is not that you only have a few faithful readers left, it is just that the balance are still catatonic over the esults and machinations of last election. From what I can see here in Bqto and read, the Chavistas are also catatonic.

    To me the real shocker is the news from the Head of the IEA that USA is to become No. 1 in oil production by 2017 and start exporting by 2020. I have been following the peak oil controversy for about 10 years and there have been indications in this direction for quite some time now. Where does that leave Venezuela after misspending all this oil money? The short answer is: In the dog house where it belongs.

    Finally, I suspect that all these poor souls who were dragged to the pools kicking and screaming to vote for Chavez will take a sweet revenge in December by staying home. This will offset the escualidos who by then will be at Disney world.

    Please keep on with your blogging, it is always well thought off stuff.

    1. Don't worry, I will be blogging. About what, how and when is another question under study....

  2. Since the elections I am almost the only one discussing the situation on my facebook. Before elections every third post was " Hay un Camino" : A Bi Polar reaction.When we are unrealistically happy or hopeful we usually end up with the opposition reaction: Catatonia of some sort.I saw that one coming.

    Now it is not part of my repertoire of personality traits to give up in the face of evil, so this reaction is somewhat hard for me to sympathize with.As a fighter I generally hang in there to the bitter end.What I don't know is how much is caused by Stockholm Syndrome, how much is simple denial and or self centering or how much is fear.Getting a sense of that is important in order to realistically assess the situation and its possibilities in terms of strategy.


  3. I mentioned in this blog in 09-Oct that "todavia hay un camino", we just have to keep trying convincing people to move out of their houses on 16-Oct-12 and vote for the opposition candidates with best probability of wining in those states with several candidates, or vote for the elected in primaries

  4. I think there is more to "getting out the vote" and modifying the constitution to change succesoral rules. What is at stake is the implantation of communes, the disappearance of private property and the "Ledezmization" of Governors and Mayors.

    These meetings to discuss the content of the next 6 year plan are window dressing.

    Actually, now that I think about it maybe all who oppose this should show up at those meetings to see if they will pay attention to them, and if a majority, to respect "the will of the people".

    1. that is assuming that these meetings are held, to begin with. their custom is to do a quick one, by invitation only. and then they say "el pueblo" was consulted.


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