Thursday, December 13, 2012

The December 16 electoral post

I suppose I should write about the Sunday elections. After all, this blog has probably written some of the most comprehensive coverage of Venezuelan recent elections. Maybe not the best but certainly most comprehensive, from pre-electoral numbers to detailed analysis. But times have changed and after realizing how wretched a country we were on October 7, I really had little stomach for more.  For those new here I suggest that they review, for example and corresponding to next Sunday, past work on the 2008 regional elections and the analysis of their results. I know how to do it, if I wanted to or if I thought it important or necessary.

And it did not get better. In addition of the 55% of Chavez we must add a good chunk of opposition idiots, true idiots, who think that we should not vote anymore until the CNE does not guarantee us clean elections. That is, in my current mood no more than 20% of Venezuelans should have the right to vote, and this after passing a test where in, say, 5 simple questions they should be able to say something about each major candidate and the issues they cover (1). But I should stop myself before I get even more accusations of elitism, anti democracy, etc, etc... thrown at me. Those critics, many by the way who are ready to swear that Venezuela is a democracy (just wait for my review on the Afiuni book soon to come in these pages).  But I digress and I should write about Sunday's vote.

First, there will not be an election day post. And this is in a way a negative for me since usually those posts are greatly appreciated and are the most read, by far, of the year (the hits of October 7 probably contributed to the page not been displayed in many areas). That does not mean I will not write at all, but I will do so if there is indeed something worth writing about besides the results.

Since I have given up on all "contacts" after October 7, I am not setting any follow up of results. Nothing. I do not care about the details, sorry. I can already tell you that there will be more fraud than in October 7 because chavismo is scared and now without Chavez they can only win through major electoral fraud of which next Sunday will be only a preview. A practice run if you wish of things to come for the next presidential election. As usual the opposition will protest too little,  too late, least they scare potential voters. So, why should I bother writing about something where methodology is already 99% certain?  Unfortunately we will need to look forward a reorganization of the opposition with more combative guys and less lovey-dovey ones, or chavismo enablers in some cases. Then maybe it will become interesting again to write in details about electoral processes. But it will not happen until the opposition suffers yet a major loss and starts truly the introspection work it needs to do.

Of course, this negativity does not come in a vacuum. After all, the opposition has been accumulating some strategic mistakes with the CNE and if it were not for Ledezma slight increase in tone and voice, we would be in a blissful ignorance,  ready for yet a new slaughter. By the way, I am voting this time around for ABP, Ledezma's party, and through the voto entubado in Yaracuy, even though here chavismo is going to get at least 55% (2).  I am aware it is a wasted vote and I am sorry to abandon my friends at Voluntad Popular for this election, but Ledezma has been the lone opposition leader to make any sense whatsoever since October and he deserves his reward.  Amazingly, from Capriles to Aveledo, from Lopez to Machado, there is a fast descent in irrelevance and I hope for their sake that next Sunday is not going to be as dire as I expect it to be and that they will be able to start a come back of sorts right in time for the presidential election next year.

Chavismo should be losing this campaign because it choice of candidates was dismal and because Chavez October victory was bought. And yet.... Too many people seem to be OK with election shopping, even within the opposition who fail to grasp the degrees of magnitude between vote buying in the 80ies and vote buying today. But it got worse when the return of Chavez diseases became a plus, just like the Amuay explosion gave Falcon state back to chavismo when people thought it was more important for Chavez to kiss victims than to prevent those victims to become victims in the first place.  As per Maduro cadena yesterday on Chavez post-op health, it is clear that if you are not with Chavez  if you are not praying for the father of the nation then you are scum.  Chavismo never tires of this emotional blackmail. And why should it tire if people are stupid enough to fall for it over and over again?

Still, from the idiots in abstention to the retards praying for the father of the country it is impossible to predict which will be the dominant parameter for Sunday results. As such my last post on elections remains as valid today as it was December 2. As a matter of fact I am re-posting below the graph made then (for detailed explanations  please, revisit that post).

My gut feeling at the time being is that Chavez disease does not play the same all around the country. As such I am allowing myself a slight optimism in that Chavez near croaking will motivate the opposition voter to be less idiotic (even if as much as 100,000 of them will have left on vacation by next Sunday).  So, as far as I dare put a prediction, which I am not doing, I am placing us now in the 5+1 scenario except that I think Nueva Esparta is lost whereas Zulia will be blue. I also put in the purple shade Aragua and Bolivar, and why not, Anzoategui while keeping Carabobo and Merida purple. So there you have the scenario to go, by near miracle, to the 6+2 scenario.

In summary, what you need to look for next Sunday.

  • The governor re-elect with the best chance to become the presidential nominee next year will need to win his state big, though big is defined differently in each state. That is, Capriles to hold to his front runner status needs to win by at least 10 points. For Perez of Zulia to become a challenger he needs to win by MORE than 10 points, and definitely more than what Capriles wins in Miranda. Falcon in Lara should win by 15 points to be able to exit from Lara and prove his political appeal across political lines.  If the next presidential election is before June 2013, the next presidential candidate is one of those three, without a doubt. The remote but possible exceptions can be Ledezma if none of them reaches the objectives stated above or a "transition" figure depending on other factors such as a sudden fall in oil prices, etc....
  • To have a chance at winning next presidential election the opposition needs to reach at least a 6+2 scenario.  Failure to do so leaves the opposition chances at the mercy of oil prices, chavismo infighting, etc...  conditions that it has no control over.
  • If Chavez disease had a "positive" effect for chavismo will be seen in the Llanos states, Apure to Cojedes in the above table. That is, if the chavista candidates there overall get a margin of victory close or bigger to what Chavez got last October then el pueblo felt sorry for Chavez and went to vote. The opposition there has little chances and its electorate is not as much dependent on the idiots and the one on holidays. Thus if we see positive results there then we can infer similar effects in more complex states.
  • Conversely, if the opposition implodes in idiocy then you will see that in Miranda and Nueva Esparta the most clearly.
  • The states with symbolic outcomes.  There are states where the dynamic of the race has been sui generis and thus have become a symbol.  If Carabobo is lost then definitely overstaying one's welcome is going to become a rule in Venezuela, except for the Chavez curse. The Salas have been taking Carabobo for granted for way too long and there is a message there for wanna be never ending politicians. Also valid to a point for Nueva Esparta, by the way. If Aragua is won by the opposition then it will mark the limits that chavismo has in naming nobodies anywhere just because Chavez said so. If Velazquez wins in Bolivar it will mean that hard work and old style politics are not dead, nor the positive legacy of the pre Chavez year. This would also apply for Anzoategui up to a point. If the opposition carries Tachira, Merida and loses by less than 10 points in Trujillo then there is the best evidence of a long term tendency away from chavismo, even in el pueblo.

That is it.  I can do no better this time around. My apologies for my bad mood and its effect on this blog, but writing rosier posts or pretending that issues are worth discussing before Chavez dies would be a lie for me. I  can do no better than setting a minimum mark of success for our side and wish that we will cross it somehow. I leave fantasy for other guys.

Still, a note for all idiots: I am going to vote next Sunday.


1) in this 20% I include at least 5% of ideological chavistas who know why they are voting even though of course I disagree completely with their argument. I may disagree with them but I cannot deny them that they are voting for more than a priaml gut feeling or some vote buying scheme.

2) even though I strongly disagree with voto entubado I am giving it to Ledezma to punish the other guys who were too happy to apply it...  I know, I know, it is only a vote but for once I vote for pleasure and revenge since no matter what I do next Sunday the results are clear in Yaracuy.  The more so that the opposition has completely abandoned its local candidate: no apparitions from out of state figures, nothing.

1 comment:

  1. I thought Venezuela couldn't get any worse than Chavez, but Maduro is such an idiot he would actually be a step further down.

    Hopefully, your pessimism for tomorrow won't be justified!


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