Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Somebody home?

I wonder if anyone is aware of the chasm ahead. From what I can see it would seem like no, nobody is taking notice. But then again I may be wrong. Hopefully.

Chavo-madurismo in overdrive

I write "chavo-madurismo" because including all of chavismo is not accurate at this time. There are enough voices inside chavismo that have decided to speak up and who think that genuinely and strategically it is better to acknowledge the electoral defeat and rebuild first chavismo before attempting to counter the opposition. Note: these are not democratic voices, these are people that are aware that they have lost a majority and who are simply surprised by the result and think that it is a mere historical accident and that a little bit of polish will be enough to return to full power for el pueblo.

The chavo-madurismo is as such a faction inside chavismo that has no time nor intention to change anything. Thus they are in an overdrive to conserve their power, privileges and legal immunity. The last one, legal immunity is the motor of that group (by the way, General Reverol may be officially indicted in US courts this week). Too compromised in corruption human rights violations and drug trafficking they know very well that their future will flounder fast with a mere cursory audit of their tenure in office. Thus for them it is out of question to allow that a new assembly can audit them. Period.

All what chavo-madurismo is trying to do to avoid its fate (rigging of high court, creating para legal structures and what not in the three weeks before January 5) will not stand legal review and will lead to an inevitable confrontation that will play in international arena. See, if the gained control at the National Assembly is voided by force, then it is enough for the new chair of the Assembly to demand to the OAS to apply its Democracy Chart. This time around, with heavy weights on board like Argentina, the Venezuela crisis will be made a world crisis. Add the humanitarian side and there you go.

Because while castro-chavo-madurismo fights recklessly for its survival, at all costs, this happens:

The chimio treatments imported for children ARE NOT working. Anyone home to answer for that?

The opposition seems preoccupied elsewhere

While chavo-madurismo is in overdrive the opposition does not  seem in a hurry to take charge.

On one side we have a Capriles who thinks his strategy was the one that allowed the opposition to win a majority, namely that the Assembly was elected solely to solve material problems for the people. Thus he places himself squarely as the rightful spokesperson for the new majority. A strategy equally wrong since 1) the new assembly cannot be the direct actor in improving the fate of el pueblo,  the gouvernement is still in charge of that no matter what as even the new laws application will depend on the good will of the regime, 2) that even if it could do so, the solutions to be written down are not of easy or fast application, 3) not all agree in the priorities that Capriles demands and 4) his demands are possibly unrealistic in the actual context where the regime is applying brute force.

The fact of the matter is that the opposition victory is born on many parameter that include the unrest of early 2014, the discredit of the regime since the 2014 repression, the economic crisis and the protest vote as a reaction, and also the offering of Capriles. But by far not alone by the non confrontational offering of Capriles, the more so that the regime is getting into open confrontation mode.

This explain why the newly elected representatives are more worried about deciding who will chair the coming assembly, and who will hold such and such commission rather than mounting an effective platform to reply to the regime recent attacks. Never mind starting to explain to the country that there is no money for anything when there are people inside chavismo that blithely state the the new assembly will refuse to vote the constant special credits that the executive demands for its social programs.

One is also allowed to wonder whether there is somebody home in charge. Some are noticing this early absence of leadership in the opposition.

And yet the opposition immediate priorities are simple. Considering that a confrontation is inevitable the opposition must from now announce that all measures current mesures taken by the regime will be voided on day first, that the CNE renewal will be conducted immediately and that the amnesty law will be the first law voted. If the regime seeks confrontation, we will give it in our terms, in an area where the opposition is unimpeachable, at least overseas.

In short, the opposition must take a grip of the only defensive tools it can get: fair elections (if needed soon), political leaders free on the streets from jail or exile, partial recuperation of freedom of information and press. Or is it that the political agenda of people like, say, Capriles is more important than the national agenda at a time where we need to find a side that will be able to negotiate the import of food and medicine that are required in 2016 for us not suffer more than necessary?


  1. Daniel, this game is played on multiple levels. The unity coalition has to focus on ending censure, getting tv exposure within Venezuela, and recreating separation of powers. But there's nothing wrong with having a message oriented to the Chavista mass, that the objective is to end food lines, control crime, improve health care and get decent employment...but this requires the people's support because Maduro insists on allowing corruption and managing things using failed policies.

    Thus Capriles has to have a voice, but there should be moves to get the assembly covered on national tv, as it passes laws and resolutions we know Maduro will ignore.

    And I've been mentioning this for a long time, so here it goes again: the pressure points for these guys are in Havana. As long as Obama is kissing Castro the Cubans will back Maduro. And they'll be ruthless.

  2. I think the first official item needs to be seen strongly by all as bettering the economic situation for the everyday person who is suffering, not for a political prisoner who takes the risk of a rough and tumble game when they entered politics.

    This is to send a message during the rough first weeks that the opposition is there for the everyday person who risked payback by having the courage to vote for the opposition. The first item should not be to settle political disputes, this can and should come later. This will ensure that whatever Maduro does, the popular support will remain with the opposition with no dilution over being accused of only trying to settle political scores and not deal with the crisis people are facing in lineups to get basic food.

  3. Daniel why would they want to show their game plan prior to being able to do anything? Wouldn't this just allow Maduro and clan to take more actions to nullify it? Let Maduro show all his cards and plan appropriately seems the ideal solution.
    As for Capriles his strategy like him or not has worked. As much as I think Lopez's wife would be the ideal face of the opposition and next president I will admit Lopez squashed the uprising that students started and poor including Chavez voters were supporting by making it political. He did this for selfish reasons to put himself at the forefront of a potential revolution at the time in hopes of taking over. His actions turned many who hated what he stood for away from the uprising. I do not think Capriles is the idiot you make him out to be. Like him or not he knows you need the poor's support to oust the Chavismos.

  4. I cannot help but to think the USA's charging of Nestor Reverol timing may be to control his actions go forward. Very easy for them with these charges to leverage him and if he cooperates promise him that Obama will amnesty him on his way out of office.

    1. I wouldn't count on that. Mr. Obama has reserved his power to pardon for the most deserving cases and has shown no inclination to use it for political purposes.

    2. Anonymous2:17 AM

      Ash, the timing is a blessing in disguise. Truth is the cases are piling up and feeding on each other. More GNB will be indicted and they will go rabid.

  5. Daniel , you are absolutely right on your assesment but still there is more urgent work to do by the opposition. Namely, 2016 will suck so bad, no one is prepared for it. I believe that Chavism is trying to distract all of us from this fact until the time the ne AN is in place ad then it will use all its communication might to convince people that 1- It is the AN fault ans 2- They are vlocking the governent from solving the problem.
    The opposition should come out an tell people right away not to waste their money on presents or holiday entertainment, buy basic stuffs and necessities if you can find them, there wil be no such luck in March, maybe sooner

    1. Soory for the typos, my phone does what it wants. By the way, since Maduro still claims to have "el pueblo" by his side, we should dare him to prove it, schoolyard style. Nicolas , tu no disque tienes el pueblo? renuncia pues y vamos a una eleccion de una. Nos contamos todos o tines miedo?

  6. no help from Argentina: there the cure is underway. Also a hard road ahead but nothing to Venezuela.

    "chavo-madurismo", excellent way to describe the sub-set; I hope the main stream media pick up on it.


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