Wednesday, July 20, 2016

Recalling the recall

The news today, allegedly good, is that the CNE would have recognized that the 1% per state required signatures to call for a collection of a 20% required signatures to call for a recall election has been reached. Already from this sentence you know that the Recall Election this year is far from a sure thing. In fact, no matter what this tweet of Ocariz says, the date of a recall election is not going to be set before the January 2017 deadline after which the recall election is deemed useless (1).

Let's take the just proportion of this necessary but useless achievement (yes, Venezuela the country of oximoronism). As I wrote a couple of days ago a recall election is not the favored outcome for the regime official party, PSUV. Since all polls indicate that Maduro is going to be trounced badly, no matter how much discreet cheating the regime may do, it remains that the outcome is a sure thing. In fact the worse case scenario is gaining strength, that more people sign up to recall Maduro than those who voted for him three years ago. The humiliation of such an event in a fascist country which has been victim of the Tascon list since 2004 would mark not only the debacle of the regime but its political extinction as well.

So the question is why the regime seems (it is all a show of course) to accept a possible recall election. To begin with it may just be a way to add pressure on Maduro to resign and take all the blame for the current disaster, even preserving Chavez "legacy".  A presidential election would follow with less disastrous results for the regime than recalling Maduro. There is also the option of gaining time while the regime decides which type of vote is best to avoid a debacle, and that decision having been made then forget about the Recall Election.

One thing is clear is that the regime does not want an election, any election. This is now officially a militaro-fascist regime and elections are not in the menu unless of a plebiscitary nature with open public vote. Or something of the sort. If you want to understand that with examples take the high court, TSJ, decision of today to exempt itself from any charge of wrongdoing. The last batch of TSJ justices was named outside of the rules for such nominations, amen of the disrespect of the requirements needed to be named high court judge. This is public knowledge and as such the National Assembly has decided to revoke the nomination process because it is fraudulent.

What has the TSJ done? In normal countries a court would have called for an independent commission to prove the National Assembly wrong and then proceed with the appropriate law suits. Here, the criminal party exculpates itself and that is that. Do you expect this lawless TSJ to rule in favor of holding elections of any type?

That was the real news today, that the TSJ is here to stay and that it will keep cancelling 99% of decisions taken by the National Assembly. And elections for good extra measure.

Now, I am not saying that a recall election will not take place, even though we have also reports of little activity in the Electoral Board CNE which should be now already in overdrive to prepare for the governor elections due in December. But since there is a risk of 100% state houses going oppo, you can understand that the CNE is in no rush. No, there will be a vote if the regime considers it necessary to promote an orderly transition. Such vote can be a recall election, a referendum, a governor election, or whatever they can come up that will hide the most the regime debacle. That vote, or no vote, will be decided solely by the army, whether Cuba likes it or not, whether civilian chavismo likes it or not... though there is always the possibility of a negotiated settlement with the opposition that may or not require an election. But I am not holding my breath on that one.

Unfortunately the way I see it, the stubbornness of the regime makes the opposition headed towards calling for a constituent assembly which cannot be denied in the constitution. That is, refusing to hold a referendum on whether to hold a constitutional assembly election would be akin of a total break of constitutional procedure which would force the outside world to take notice (something that the outside world has started doing, like waving Venezuela's turn at chairing MERCOSUR).


1) If a Recall Election is held in the two last years of a presidential term then THE APPOINTED vice president serves the rest of the term even though the creep may not run even for a coop seat anywhere in his life time. That is chavista democracy for you.


  1. The corrupt military thugs will decide. And every Chavista Thief will eventually have to run for dear life, unless they bribe someone else, like the TSJ or the MUD "diputados". The mess in Kleptozuela won't stop until the hammer hits the table. And I'm talking Perez Jimenez.

  2. Daniel, do you not think that the whole January 31st date is arbitrary? If the regime's goal is to stall until past that date for the sole purpose of getting the vice Pres in for the rest of the term and avoid an election, then all they need to do is have Maduro resign for any reason prior to a recall vote completion and the Vice Pres would be in for the remainder of the term anyways. Clearly this is all a circus to show a glimmer of non violent hope to the people and the opposition is as much to blame for the false hope as anyone. If the opposition would have just said there is no hope of a recall referendum given the unconstitutional regime it would fuel the peoples desire to take to the streets to rid the gov't, which is clearly the only way to get rid of them.

    1. It is January 10, exactly 4 years after the official Chavez swearing in that never happened.

    2. Anonymous2:38 PM

      Dear Canadian Looking In,

      It is always easy to encourage people to go and face prison/death when it isn't actually you going into that situation.

      To answer you directly when you say "If the opposition would have just said there is no hope of a recall referendum given the unconstitutional regime it would fuel the people's desire to take to the streets to rid the gov't, which is clearly the only way to get rid of them."

      The people need someone/something to get behind otherwise what is the motive on the streets. What do you want them to demand? Please realise that asking for the current government to end isn't actually an aim, without an agreed solution to agitate for there is no persuasive mass protest that can take place.

      Whoever calls for (or is the end aim) of these massive protests is going straight to jail like Lopez ended up.

      They opposition need to exhaust the recall referendum first before they even consider taking such a bold move as taking to the streets. It’s easy to sit behind a computer and complain about the lack of protests, it’s another thing completely when as a leader of the opposition (or a member of the public), it’s your arse that is going straight to jail (or to death).

      It is only wise to make a move to the streets when you can be sure that the mass of the public will get you out of jail as quickly as possible. Lopez has been in jail for so long because the public weren’t ready to get him out of jail immediately. Capriles knew the public weren’t ready then, which is why he waited.

      If the recall referendum gets shut down, given all the other problems that are going on, the public may then be ready to rescue their leaders from jail the moment the public take to the streets. And you can be sure the opposition will go straight to jail the moment the people do take to the streets.

      I am yet to hear any argument that explains how, once the people take to the streets, they will be able to get the government to fall and more importantly have something fill the vacuum that will deliver the aims of the protests.

      Please enlighten me as to your end game strategy if you have one, otherwise please stop peddling nonsense by complaining about the people's lack of action or the opposition's current strategy?


    3. Limey I would not have the opposition lead the people to the street. The oppositions involvements in past street protests is what caused their failure in the past. The people are starving and have come to the realization that the regime is why. When protests ignited without leadership in the past they stood to engulf the populous and run the regime out when leaders like Lopez seen the opportunity to get involved and lead the people. It was these opposition leaders who turned the protests at that time political causing them to lose the support of the majority and fail. What I am saying is the opposition if providing false hope and if they just got out of the way the people will do the rest. The support of the average military person is weak, only the corrupt generals is strong. I and I think most believe if the people turn in mass on the government it will fall. If the people then demand a democratic election a new government could be in place immediately accepting aid from the world to feed the starving. Fix the currency issue and ask the USA to help source and seize the 300 plus billion stolen and in accounts or assets around the world. Get out of the rediculous gift deals Venezuela is in and decommission the military. Sell off the billions in arms spent. Change the govt such that resource companies look to invest in mass into Venezuela bringing many labor jobs and bringing the educated high paying jobs back. Venezuela has the resources to rebuild. Nothing will come easy but sure is better then mass starvations, family members dieing from no medicine, and not being safe in your own home.
      A few on here have suggested members of the opposition are on the take and is why they have not been arrested and their actions seem to suggest this could be true. Their words say one thing their actions show another.
      And if you want a true leader for Venezuela get Lopez wife Lillian. She has shown unbelievable strength, leadership in dealing on the international stage and public display of suffering that the population can relate to.

    4. Lilian Tintori does not show strength and offers nothing that most people can relate to. The only reason Leopoldo Lopez accepted prison and didn't leave the country like Rosales, is for the eventual payoff of becoming president which was never an option for Rosales.

      I am more of a Capriles guy, there's a reason why Lopez declined his primary candidacy in his favor (political sanctions aside), and also why 4 years later they're still the top dogs. Leopoldo Lopez went to prison partly because it could be his final shot at trumping Capriles for leadership, but I think it has failed.

    5. I agree Lopez is all about himself but see no promise in Capriles at all. What has he accomplished as leader of the oposition? He has done all he an to stop a revolt which is the only solution to a dictatorship.
      Lillian has suffered greatly along side the people and has successfully met with and garnered more support from the international community then anyone else in Venezuela including Capriles which was his job. She has endured great suffering and showed incredible strength in the face of it. She is personable and easy to like and follow. Capriles will never get the people to follow him. He cannot organize a march when everyone hates the regime.

  3. Anonymous2:33 AM

    What am I missing? With all the BS to get the 1%, what Act of God or man is going to allow the opposition to get necessary 20% in the required period of time to have the recall election this year?

    1. Welcome to Venezuela circus......

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