The Pompeo storm

Today we had yet another example on how the failures of the opposition outmatch its successes.

Secretary of state Mike Pompeo had a private conversation on Venezuela that was leaked (I personally wonder whether he wanted that to be leaked). In that conversation he said two important things: that the Venezuelan opposition was very hard to organize into some form or real unity and that it was because there were at least 40 folks that wanted the US to annoint them as the next president of Venezuela. (1)

“Our conundrum, which is to keep the opposition united, has proven devilishly difficult”

“The moment Maduro leaves, everybody’s going to raise their hands and [say], ‘Take me, I’m the next president of Venezuela.’ It would be forty-plus people who believe they’re the rightful heir to Maduro.”

The results are in, the fraud is scandalous, again

So there are the official results so far:

Maduro 5,823,728
Falcon 1,820,522
Bertucci 925,042
Quijada 36,614

Participation, CNE RECOGNIZED, 46%

Participation from other sources range from a 32% for Reuters to a 17% for Meganalisis

Other data:
*the lowest electoral participation in a presidential election in 30 years, the lowest one was 56% in 2000. Note: as far as I know all previous presidential elections since 1958 have been above 56%. Venezuelan "democracy" at its worst showing.
*Falcon and Bertucci are not going to recognize the result, discovering suddenly that there was fraud.

Oh well....  Where should I start?

There was a fraud? You don't say!

Procrastination pays. I was seeking my words for an intellectually powerful analysis of the electoral results of last Sunday "vote". But lack of Internet (it came back last night, after 6 days out!) made postpone the enlightenment you guys deserved so richly.

Well, what do you know!? There is no need to discuss those "results" of "8+ millions votes" that nobody saw on the streets Sunday!

Week 2 of the dictatorship: Elections now? That ship has sailed!

Yesterday show of strength by the opposition, in numbers and determination, has shaken the regime, and in particular Maduro who does not have the intellectual heft to understand what is truly going on in the country. His evilness and street smarts can only go so far, no matter how much the Cubans are trying to direct him. And they took him way farther than anyone expected! I am not saying that he is done with, one should never underestimate people who think along mafia lines or feel like cornered dogs. What I am saying is that when people have as their lone strategy violence, cynicism and bald faced lies, then they are at their wit's end.

Today Maduro did his Sunday show and announced that he could not wait for elections so as to trounce the opposition and radicalize the revolution. Oh my! Where do I start?

Recall Election gone. So what?

I suppose I should write about the annulation of the Recall Election.  I had guessed long ago that it would not happen. The intensity of the dislike toward Maduro is so strong, even among chavistas, that the regime could not allow CNN document the huge lines that would have formed for three days this week.  They had no stomach for that, it was better to use an idiotic legal sophistry and send it all ad patres.

To concur with the prevalent head line this week end that Venezuela is officially a dictatorship is an hypocrisy. I have long said it so and I am actually upset at some people having trying to avoid the D world finally pouting it. As if annulling the Recall Election was more despicable than, say, having political prisoners, forcing those freed into exile, stealing the budget of the nation, and more,

I will just comment on how ridiculous the pretext to kill the Recall Election was. In short, a sub judge in Podunk decided that the CNE had not done its job to vet all the signatures for the 1% collection to start the process. The ridicule, of declaring themselves incompetent through their beloved electoral ministry, CNE, is something they cannot worry about anymore. The obsessive objective is to never leave office. All considerations be dammed.

That is all that there is to it.

Now what?

Thy electoral CNE shoe droppeth

There will be a lot of brouhaha in the next days about the ignominious decision of the CNE to do its utmost to violate the constitution in order to block the Recall Election against Maduro. Let me try to make it clear for readers still hanging around here.

1) The motivation in any case is to annul the Recall Election, or in the very worst case push it to 2017 which means that the regime remains in office until January 2019 at the very least.

There we are not, at freedom

Long time I did not write a summary of what is going on. As usual there is a big yawn along as everything changes fast but everything is, in the end, the same: a gang of thugs will do whatever it is possible to retain power because they know what awaits them once they lose. Nevermind the culture of violence that goes with such mentality where only brute force is the argument. Negotiation? Only to gain time until I finally find a way to screw you once and for all.

No recall election in 2016: one hidden motive

As a supplement of yesterday's post where I explained why there would not be a Recall Election , or any election for that matter, we got some declarations today that definitely rule out a recall election in 2016. That is, these declarations technically do not rule out such a referendum but they describe very well that chavismo simply will not accept a recall election before January 10, 2017. After, we'll see but do not get your hopes high and at any rate it would be useless, ta-ta...

Now let's look at what is "new" today. Nothing really, just more clarity, so to speak.

Recall Election all but over

Today the head of the electoral board, CNE, Tibisay Lucena announced that "if all goes well" the gathering of the 20% signature from the registered electors could take place late October. TRANSLATION: even if the 20% is gathered late October there will not be enough time to fend off legal challenges so that the Recall Election is held before January 10 2017. If the recall election is held after that date and even if 90% vote to oust Maduro, his serving vice-president will replace in office to complete the two years in the presidential term.

In other words the regime has announced that there is no way they will risk a presidential election before December 2018. And if you still do not get it, the current cabinet of musical chairs will remain presiding over the country until January 2019 at the earliest.

Recalling the recall

The news today, allegedly good, is that the CNE would have recognized that the 1% per state required signatures to call for a collection of a 20% required signatures to call for a recall election has been reached. Already from this sentence you know that the Recall Election this year is far from a sure thing. In fact, no matter what this tweet of Ocariz says, the date of a recall election is not going to be set before the January 2017 deadline after which the recall election is deemed useless (1).

Aquí está el acta que confirma los resultados de la validación por el CNE. Esperamos fecha para el 20% pic.twitter.com/dBB4rL0JM4

— Carlos Ocariz (@CarlosOcariz) 20 de julio de 2016

Revocatorio, Brexit and other assauts on democracy

This past week we got dramatic examples on the limits of democracy. Let's dispatch Brexit fast as the "revocatorio" will require some details.

Understanding the political moment

I have been back for two weeks now and events are just unfolding too fast for me to write about them, considering the depression that arises from coming back to what has become a hell hole. Let's just order our thoughts together, shall we?

L'air du temps:
Borges getting his nose broken

One way is to look at the main hard data and its effects. The reader on its own will be able to draw the general picture after the fact.


Jail for you

The driving force in this mega crisis is that under the concept of world justice and transparency a few dozens of the higher up in the regime know they will never be able to find peace and solace once out of office. Their fate for them is jail, tomorrow, in a decade, it does not matter. If they do not die first they will end up in jail. They know that.

Fake signatures in lieu of votes, popular clamor in lieu of democracy

So Maduro will present 10 or 13 or 3 million signatures in Panama today. To Obama, to the public or to the dumpster. Does it matter?

Sending the message that votes are unnecessary 

The shame has continued unabated. Even my personal one. I have almost forced my S.O., a sickly public worker, to go an sign the Maduro farce in a way to be seen by his co-workers, to make sure he does not raise any suspicion at work, to make sure he does not compromise his job, to make sure he does not risk his health insurance. We are not proud but we live in a dictatorship. I can afford not to sign, he cannot because my means do not allow me to support him financially 100%, the more so that the bolivarian revolution is homophobic and contrary to many other LatAm countries has no provision for same sex couples so I cannot put him on my insurance, my retirement, my inheritance, etc. In many other countries there are such possibilities now, but bolivarian Venezuela is probably the most backward country now in South America. Then again homophobia is but one of the many tools of subjection available to fascism.

But my personal shame made me digress.

Primaries for the Venezuelan opposition?

Although away for a short vacation echoes of the internal debate of the opposition (assuming that it is actually taking place) reach me. The new coordination group seems to be dead on arrival as it is not yet able to make a difference with the long extinct and failed Coordinadora Democratica. And Leopoldo Lopez, with time on his hands, is proposing a primary system as the universal panacea to motivate all to go and vote and trash Chavez. Meanwhile, with the hot button of Globovision to hide the real stuff going on, the government is passing a new electoral law that will ensure that the opposition can gain a majority in the parliament only if it gets more than 50% of the popular vote, and I do not mean 51 or 52, I mean at least 55%.

What to do?

I have been thinking about writing about this topic but since I avoid writing about what should be done since I will never be given an opportunity to try it out, I dodge. But been on vacation, for once I will indulge.

The first think to be aware of is that a primary system will not solve any problem of opposition unity unless guarantees for small players are not respected. In real terms this mean that a representative seat must be guaranteed to any semi significant group, and its prima donna leader, if not they will lose any motivation to sweat it to get the other guys elected. It is one thing to unite behind a referendum proposal or behind a presidential candidate as the collective interest is obvious and the collective rewards implied. It is another thing to try to elect 10 Primero Justicia representatives when your own party will probably get zilch since it lost it all in the primaries. Egotistical perhaps but this is the way politics work, even ten years under Chavez autocracy.

On the other hand, behind closed doors negotiations do not guarantee unity and division over failed negotiations end up in dramatic losses like Bolivar State or the town halls of Valencia and Cumana last November. The answer? A combination of both. Some seats should be negotiated to guarantee representation to all parties even if the bigger ones (UNT, PJ) must make some concessions. And the bulk should be assigned according to primaries.

First, there must be reasonably appreciation of how many seats could a united opposition aspire to with the November result. As it stands now this probably would amount to 40% of the actual National Assembly, or say, rounding it, 60 seats. That is, the strategy must be to ensure 60 seats, anything above that is bonus. Thus we can already divide the potential seats in two groups: the 60 “likely” and the rest “less likely”. The first conclusion is that the “less likely” seats should be allocated under a strict system based on primaries, and that is that.

The second problem is to divide these 60 “likely” into two groups. The first group would be 15 seats assigned by negotiations so as to make sure that all get at least one seat. Think about it: PJ, UNT, AD, COPEI, MAS, PODEMOS, BR, CONVERGENCIA, ABP, PV, plus 2-3 regional groups and we are already nearing 15! The other 45 “likely” seats will be assigned through a primary system which is way more complicated to come up with than what people might think.

The electoral system of Venezuela is not very friendly to organizing primaries since we can elect representatives through lists and through districts. And in small states such as Yaracuy our 5 representatives come from 1 each from three districts and 2 from a list, precluding any real proportional representation. Thus we could risk CONVERGENCIA, the local opposition group, to claim all and not lift a finger elsewhere; which is what happened in the 2000 vote.

This is not an obstacle nor an advantage but there are ways to force all the small parties that get entitled to one seat to campaign hard: make these 15 winning seats depend as much as possible on the representation of the state at large to motivate as much the beneficiaries of the "safe" seat to move their butt during a campaign.

Example Yaracuy: the expected CONVERGENCIA seat should be in the list seat, that is, CONVERGENCIA will need to campaign all across the state in the name of all parties to elect its representative, and thus hopefully pull the other guys along in individual districts (assuming that CONVERGENCIA is not dead but that is another story). We could sweeten the deal by granting them one of the district seats but the other two and the second list should be designed through primaries. But no matter what, the agonizing CONVERGENCIA should be told that it will get only two seats, and if it works hard at it. If it refuses then Yaracuy will probably not elect a single opposition representative but CONVERGENCIA will disappear once and for all.

The reverse example would apply to Miranda were district seats are harder to win, such as the two from Eastern Caracas. As such Primero Justicia and COPEI should get their two “likely” from Petare district and work hard, the result showing up in the list representatives for the state at large which list is primary driven.

As you can gather, we are talking individualized primaries state by state according to what the original negotiation yields. Is this a problem? Not necessary. A nation wide primary would generate bitter resentment after a national campaign. We do not have that luxury. Besides I doubt that SUMATE has the finances to organize a single primary day. On the other hand having half a dozen of Sunday primaries allow for state by state strategies, diluting the humiliation for the losers while keeping the winners on their toes. Let’s take Yaracuy as an imaginary example: during the primaries CONVERGENCIA wins but with only 35% while UNT gets 25%. CONVERGENCIA is thus forced to content itself with 2 candidates (one safe and one primary), UNT one and the other two to the other runner up (likely PODEMOS and PJ). Thus CONVERGENCIA pays its errors of the past but is given a chance to rebuild and Yaracuy could surprise all by sending 3 out of 5 representatives when today it is expected to send 5 chavista.

What we need is a responsible negotiation without any grandstanding from any one. Primaries should also be seen as an excellent opportunity for all to build their bases and expand outside of their areas of influence. For example, what better way for Primero Justica to enter in Merida or Anzoategui or even Zulia but to run in a primary there? What better way for CONVERGENCIA to prove it is still relevant in Yaracuy but to try to win the primary there? What better way for UNT to prove that it is not stuck in Zulia by winning or at least reaching second in Caracas downtown primary?

Again, primaries in Venezuela are not the “solve it all” tool. We must respect the primacy of certain parties in their areas: Zulia should have a majority of “likely” in UNT as does PJ in Miranda or PV in Carabobo. Thus the importance of a negotiated chunk of representatives that I put at 15 but that could well be as many as 20 or 25 (but never more than 40% of the “likely” otherwise people might get pissed off). UNT, PJ and PV should recognize that if they will get a majority of elected representatives in their fiefdoms, they must make room for at least 1 or 2 from other parties.

All in all a very complex issue but as long as the opposition leadership does not start tackling complex issue in a mature and realistic way, Chavez will remain in office Iran style and each time it will be more difficult to boot him out through peaceful means. Assuming that this is still possible, but that is yet another story.

This being said, right now I am very pessimistic about a nice arrangement on this complex matter and I am certainly not holding my breath at been consulted on the matter even though I have proven that I know more about electoral projects than many of those who grace of their presence the screen Globovison, while it lasts. But heck, it was fun to write this and I cannot wait until I can say “I told you”!

Note: I limited this discussion to National Assembly elections which should come next year. Though if it were up to me the opposition should have started long ago a recall election drive on these creeps. But that is also another story. Back to topic, primaries discussion for local council elections would be an even more devilish endavour!


-The end-

There might be an opposition after all

[updated]

Well, I bet Chavez is even more surprised than me tonight. Yesterday Rosales was accused of corruption. Within twenty four hours Rosales called for a huge, and I mean HUGE, popular rally in Maracaibo, of the type of rallies that even with a gadzillion of buses Chavez today would be unable to call for in 24 hours. And, hold tight, all the who'swho of the current elected opposition leadership is taking turn on stage to defend Rosales and declare chavismo corrupt. They are all there, from Salas Feo to Carlos Ocariz, from Miryam do Nascimento to Gerardo Blyde. Well, I have not seen the one from Margarita but you know, even if you want to go you might not always be able to do so. If Chavez did want to strengthen the leadership of the opposition and its unity around Rosales he could not have done better....

It is very noteworthy that all speakers are striking the right note, defending Rosales but spending more time in attacking Chavez recent policies, and harshly.

A law revoking referendum in the near future?

update: it was really one of the most successful opposition rallies I have seen. The psychological image of all of the opposition leadership unified in its criticism of Chavez abuses, with words much stronger than what we are used to see will have an impact. Rosales spoke at the end and even accused the Zulia representatives of betrayal to their own home state. A recall election on the National Assembly in the works? Why not? Even removing a couple of dozens seats only would have a tremendous psychological impact.

Whatever honeymoon Chavez thought he would be benefiting from his February 15 result, it died this week.

Madre mía, si el gobierno
no ayuda al pueblo zuliano,
tendréis que meter la mano
y mandarlo pa'l infierno.

-The end-

Chavez really, really wants to control Caracas

Poor Chavez, he really has a problem! The mean people did not vote for his candidate for Caracas mayor at large. And the new one, Ledezma, is showing to the world all the corruption and mismanagement that existed before he won the election last November. Of course, this is totally unacceptable. So, before arresting poor Ledezma, or even shooting him, there is a clever way to neutralize him: a new law that will put above Ledezma and all the local mayors of Caracas a Chavez appointed jerk that will have more power than the elected officials. Democracy? What democracy? Just vote for Chavez and he names everyone else and voila!

I love it when I call the 54% of people who voted SI an undemocratic crowd and I get such a fabulous and quick confirmation! If we were a democratic country chavistas and anti chavistas alike should go to the streets of Caracas to protest even the idea of discussing such a law that annuls their vote in such a blatant way. Will I stand corrected? I doubt it.

But meanwhile, this is of course a great distraction in the chavista circus where all must be discussed but what really needs to be discussed, such as crime and traffic and corruption.

I tell you what should happen if we had a real opposition in Venezuela: tomorrow a committee should be formed to prepare for the Recall Election of Cilia Flores who as a Caracas representative is accepting that such an undemocratic law is put to discussion in the chamber she presides. And it should be called clearly, stating that her decisions go against the will of the Caracas people and as such she should be removed as she is not representing them anymore. And if people from either side were not afraid, were democrats, were willing to fight for their rights then they would have no problem signing on the petition to call a vote on that, Tascon list or not.

I am not holding my breath. Meeting with Aznar is so much easier, so much more fulfilling, so much more effective to make sure that Caracas is adequately ruled.

-The end-

Of the uselesness of recall elections: Venezuela 2004, Bolivia 2008

[Updated]
Today Bolivia wasted precious time and resources in an electoral campaign that has solved nothing. All those that mattered won, no one punched down the other side and the country is in fact more divided than ever. Just as in Venezuela the Recall Election of 2004 solved nothing, allowing Chavez to retain office and unleash on the country the most corrupt and inefficient government of our democratic history. That is, assuming that Chavez is a democratic government which is something that has been questionable for quite a while. In both cases I squarely put the blame on the system of recall elections which after the example of Bolivia today is proven a useless system for our Latin cultural approach to politics. But first each result.

Bolivia 2008

The results are pretty much as expected. Evo Morales and his vice retain power with an increased percentage from 2005. But with a country more divided than ever. Indigenous people of the Altiplano voted massively for their man, no matter what, but the mixed races low land, at the heart of Bolivia economy voted against Morales. In fact, tensions were so bad that Morales at the end could not campaign there (not that the low-lands governor could campaign in the Altiplano for that matter...). So Morales seems to have gained over 60% of the votes but today he cannot travel in half of the country.

But even his own victory in the Altiplano has already the seeds of his future problems: the Oruro Prefect (kind of governor) also on the ballot apparently lost. And yet he was a man of Morales, who carried Oruro without problems. Thus we can already see the same pattern than in Venezuela, the pro-Morales vote is an emotional one whose coattails do not seem to work very well. In fact, interestingly, all could be happy as even those who lost got MORE votes than in 2005.

Even his own improvement in the Altiplano, revoking the Prefect of La Paz, is not necessarily a good long term prospect. To begin with Paredes was elected with a minority vote, and became an accidental opponent. Clearly, as soon as the Recall Election was called for he knew he was doomed, that his chances were null. Yet he did get close to 40% of the votes and now, freed of governing duties, and a victim in public opinion, he could soon become a much more dangerous opponent to Morales than what he would be had he retained his seat.

The regional opposition also can claim victory, though in all fairness the 60%+ of Morales, coattails or not, clouds prospects some. But the "media luna" Prefects all seem to have won with more than 50% of the vote, in particular the more radical one of the biggest province of Santa Cruz who got more than 70%. So now, considering that the loss of La Paz is meaningless since there was little Paredes could do against Morales in the capital, we have 4 ratified prefects, 1 for the opposition that was not required to stand the recall election as freshly elected (Chuquisaca), 3 for Morales and one, Cochabamba where the losing prefect announced long ago that he did not recognize the election (and who did not lose by that much anyway). If we consider that the loss of La Paz was pre-compensated by the election of an indigenous woman opposing Morales in Chuquisaca, the opposition is actually better off as geographically they all now hold together territorially, with the second capital, Sucre, in their hands, sort of anyway.

What next for Bolivia?

Think the US circa 1859-60. That is your reference point. And if you think that Morales with 60% of the vote will be able to force the army to retake Santa Cruz, you will be seriously disappointed. If the "media luna" were to break away, the Bolivian army would break apart, just as Robert E. Lee left the US army to lead the Southern one, after Virginia decided to bolt. Morales is the winner of a country more divided than ever, with the discomforting thought that many of those who voted for him ALSO did vote for an opposition Prefect and thus he cannot rely on his 60%+ to force acceptation the fraudulent constitution he has not been able to bring up to a vote. Nor can he rely on the La Paz inhabitants who voted for him to also get guns and go down to submit Santa Cruz. Bolivia simply squandered yet another opportunity where the only one who can claim to have gained a very little, and I am being generous, is Morales who at least has been able to maintain indigenous unity.

Now, they all have only one option, to climb down from their mutual arrogant positions, no matter how valid those ones are, and renegotiate the constitution project to send it to referendum. If this does not happen then the most probable outcome will be the break up of Bolivia. Venezuela will not be able to help as I am 99% sure that public opinion here will not accept it and that would be the end of Chavez (nor will Colombia, Peru or Brazil accept more involvement of Venezuela than what they are seeing today).

Venezuela 2004

The Recall Election process of Venezuela in 2004 did not solve any of the problems of Venezuela, just as today´s vote solved nothing in Bolivia as it did not address the underlying problems of the country: it was just an act to see who is the "Cacique". In fact we can today say that it aggravated the political problem even if the first result was for Chavez to win 22 out 24 states three months later.

First, the country became irremediably divided in tow irreconcilable camps with a "do not care" floating group who showed little spine as long as government benefits reached them. The 3 million+ of the Tascon list will never forgive becoming second class citizens. But what was worse than that, the Chavez victory and the Tascon list allowed him to transform progressively his followers into his subjects. They are starting to resent that. If to this we add that since then Chavez has felt free to violate the constitution and to apply at will unacceptable pressures to improve his electoral chances, and to buy any person he needed to buy, you can see that the neglect in their duties of the Carter Center and the OAS in 2004 only served to postpone the denouement of the crisis toward a new outcome that will be in all likelihood violent.

All proportions and local considerations observed, today Boliva started its transit towards a more violent outcome than what it could have achieved if it did not waste its time in an useless Recall Election.

The intellectual fraud behind Recall Election systems

After the result in Bolivia and Venezuela I am ready to toss out this system once and for all, at least for all of Latin America. Its first two applications did not work in that they only they exacerbated the crisis. True, the local good results of the opposition in Bolivia make this conclusion perhaps premature, but I am afraid that I will be proven right.

Why can't a Recall Election work in our countries? Because it personalizes the vote, it makes it an emotional demand on the voters. They are asked to punish one guy without the convenient excuse to be able to say "Oh, but the other one promised me something that interested me more. Next time I will vote again for you, worry not!". Such a vote forces the voter to make a definite choice and thus radicalizes the political process, driving away the normal give an take that politics in a democracy should be about. Not to mention that if the elector voted in the past for the politician to be revoked, you are forcing him or her to admit that they were wrong then, something that few people enjoy.

Reelections are less taxing. To begin with you can say "well, s/he has these flaws but overall I prefer him/her to the other guy". Or you can say "Well, he screwed up on this. To teach him I will vote for her, and is she does not work out, well, I will vote again for him". Think about the psychological underlining of these statements about your own responsibility in voting and you will understand better. A Recall Election does not offer you that moral ambiguity.

If to this you add a culture of love for the strong man, with racial undertones, you can quickly see that Recall Elections can only work in reasonably homogeneous cultures such as in Japan. And I doubt that.

No, for our Latin countries what we need is shorter terms, until people over time learn that they must vote responsibly (yet Western Democracies history seem to indicate that they are still quite far from voter responsibility!). People must learn that when they vote for a jerk, they have to put up with that jerk for the full term. If the jerk is simply unbearable there are other ways to remove him or her, and in Venezuela we have shown that we could remove presidents without Recall Elections or coup d'etat. Or has the world forgotten that Carlos Andres Perez was legally removed from office one year before he completed his second term? And for an offense that was a child's game compared to Chavez offenses today. In Venezuela the next constitutional reform we should consider is to shorten the presidential term, and, as far as I am concerned, remove reelection, ever. In fact I am becoming almost an Athenian as all ex rulers should receive the Ostraka, with a very nice pension for sure.

Update

Last night it was late enough that I forgot to include links to my Bolivian web sources. You can read more in the MAB blog and in the Blog from Bolivia, which shows what good PSF are able to do. If we were so lucky here in Venezuela....

This morning MAB carries graphs from La Razon which confirm what I was writing last night: there was a lot of crossover voters which do tarnish the victory of Morales some (I am not so sure it does tarnish the wins from opposition Prefects in the same way since all of them got MORE, way more votes some time than what they got three years ago).

The recall of Evo is confirmed in Chuquisaca. Thus his win in Cochabamba will not help him that much. And now the media luna is a more solid territorial crescent.

Rural and city vote is very split everywhere, the same phenomenon we observe in Venezuela with Chavez, as education and business drive away like garlic the vampirism of state control. this is dramatic in Potosi, the province that gave Evo its largest victory with 80.8%. The rural vote there was 94.1% FOR Evo but a much lower 68.5% in urban areas.

Crossover voting is more prevalent and important than what I thought at first. For example in La Paz the NO to Evo is 22.9% but the YES to Paredes was twice that amount, at 42.3%.

The division of the country is made clearer if we look at the average Evo Victory. In the 5 provinces he won, the average percentile SI is 70.8%. But in the four he lost the percentile average SI is 44.3%!!!! A difference of 25%!!!! It hardly gets more divided than that.

- -- --- ---- ----- ------

A funny note. The coverage of the ABN, the Chavez news agency, focused on the Santa Cruz media not focusing on the Morales victory. Example here. It is amusing because it really shows not only the embarrassing partiality of the ABN, but also its ignorance of how other countries operate when not all is fixated in their capital city, like it happens in Venezuela with Caracas (y lo demas es monte y culebra). Probably the ABN never caught on that in Santa Cruz everybody knew Morales would win and they were just much more interested into what score would their man do at home. Poor ABN, they probaly think that the life of Bolivan media revolves around Morales just like the life of Venezuelan media revolves aound Chavez.

-The end-

Your electoral homework for the day

There is a new fascinating site that reviews many of the electoral issues in Venezuela, resuming all the evidence of electoral fraud in past elections. It is a flash presentation in Spanish, unfortunately for the English only readers of this blog. However there are many of these presentations in English PDF though I have had no time to check how good the translations are and how complete the information is. But the presentations are in general top notch, and the explanations of the Newcomb-Benford laws cannot be any clearer and useful in illustrating the electoral fraud committed in 2004.

Now, before any one gets too excited. Even if electoral fraud was committed in 2004 it is too late now to do much about it. We need to move on and find ways to fight future frauds, knowing that everyday it will be more and more difficult for a government sagging in polls to make a "credible" fraud as they did in 2004. Thus the need to visit the different presentations included in the link above and to understand that staying home in disgust IS NOT GOING TO SOLVE THE PROBLEM, unless you are willing to get a gun and march to Miraflores. Since 99.9% of the abstention party seems to prefer to go to the beach or the mall on election day, then, well, "¿porqué no se callan?". The solution is to get involved, to man all electoral centers and be present when ballots are counted. As long as the opposition will not be able to send electoral witness inside the 23 de Enero, chavismo will be able to inflate the results there and you can be assured that the natives are not going to complain. If you want to help the dissidence of the 23 de Enero to vote against Chavez, you need to be there for them.

Also, my position as to the 2004 is not changed: I think that Chavez won but they could not resit a little bit of fraud to pad the result and make them look better. Whenever Chavez is on the ballot he needs for his ego to get at least a hundred thousand more votes than the previous time. There are enough sycophants around willing to oblige and cheat even if Chavez does not ask them to do so explicitly. That it the way it works in regimes like Chavez. Even when all polls are in favor of Chavez, some local pols will try to show that their district is the most chavista of them all. I will remind you that electoral fraud is not just a matter of stuffing the ballot box: it already starts at the gross unfairness of means deployed by governmental agents. That also needs to be repeatedly, tirelessly denounced!

Thus you need to read as many presentations of that site above to understand that 1) only stern and decisive preparation from opposition political parties will give a credible chance of making an election result count, 2) only through your personal involvement you will be able to effect changes, , no matter which is the political party or political organization a majority in your area and 3) you cannot claim fraud if you did not go and vote.

Otherwise you only other option is to march to Miraflores. If you think that the fat and corrupt generals that Chavez has placed all around him are going to remove him from office, you are in for a rude awakening. By the time the militia is fully constituted you will not even be able to vote honestly in your condominium elections.....


-The end-

Chavez electoral lies and manipulations

I was busy yesterday so apparently I missed another one of those intellectually offensive cadenas which seem to be the only type of cadenas Chavez is able to give these days.

The first thing we can say is that whenever the intensity and frequency of cadenas increase, it is an admission by the government that its polling numbers are not good and they must use Chavez himself as the propaganda gun to recover some more favorable numbers. This has been working quite well in the past when Chavez could announce each time a new social program or some presumed revolutionary victory. But as the social programs are not running too well these days and oil production is going down and RCTV is a bitter sore in the popular classes, we may ask ourselves how effective this abuse will be this time. After all, even with chavismo, at some point bis repetita non placent.

Thus I had to rely on newspaper accounts to read what the hell Chavez did a cadena yesterday. They were enough just in the release from El Universal.

Megalomania, when you hold us in your grip!

First, we were treated to what will be one of the main teams of the constitutional changes, indefinite reelection of Chavez. Thus he is presenting himself as the only man capable of directing the country and henceforth he should be allowed to do so. We can even say he is metabolizing it in his organs when he says such silliness:

but I am convinced (...) that these six years for me, for the project that I incarnate, that I push forwards with my bones, my liver, my kidneys, my lungs, my throat, with my nails, the period is not enough.

After such a, literally, visceral statement one is left with no doubt as to the mental state of the beloved leader. Wits, by the way, might notice that there was no mention of Chavez brains...

The referendum lies

Another nice little item I found is this one: if in two years from now someone asks for a recall election and the motion wins, he will go. Yeah, right...

The first question here is why present himself as Venezuela's only hope and assume that in two years he might be gone after all? What is that? A Freudian subconscious uncertainty in his infallibility? An admission of electoral treachery? Or plain delusional B.S.? It is when you read such nonsense that you really understand the need to have journalists, good ones, in front of him and asking him on the spot why such incongruities in his speech. A self assured leader does not even speculate on such things when he is asking for a life presidency! I am pretty sure that neither Napoleon nor Castro ever said such nonsense. Though we do see once again the virtue of cadenas for Chavez, he can talk, talk talk and zero accounting, no straight minded reporter to call him on his flights of fancy. Eventually the feeble minded audience gets wrapped by these contradictions and embraces them.

But there is something better: during the electoral campaign towards the December 2006 election Chavez made one of his important campaign speeches where he promised to call himself for a recall election on his next term. Yes, that is right, as a way to soothe the Venezuelan people, to distract from the fear of six more years of autocracy, to help forget momentarily the apartheid Tascon List as a killer of referenda and democracy, Chavez offered to ask himself for a recall election on his term by December 2010. After yesterday we can be assured that there will be no such referendum in 2010, nor probably ever again if Chavez gets his unlimited reelection.

The world media campaign against Venezuela

Apparently it seems that the US orchestrated negative campaign against Venezuela is so powerful that it dominates even the European press. That is right, all the respectable European newspapers and media and governments have bought into the US argument that closing a TV station for personal vendetta is a bad thing. What is this? huh?

But it gets better: Chavez is sorry that his ambassadors in Europe do not have access to the means to counter such a campaign. What? Venezuelan ambassadors are not allowed to make cadenas in Europe? The nerve of these Europeans!!!!!!

The French case

If the ridicule of the above comment were not enough, we can add another one ridicule with the pretension that the Venezuelan system is just like the French system where presidential reelection is unlimited. True but wrong anyway.

It seems to have all started with Sarkozy writing to Chavez a "friendly letter". I suspect that the new French administration is not quite aware of chavismo and sure enough its first entreat is shamelessly used for propaganda purposes by Chavez. Serves them right. For the record I would like to cite myself when I wrote here that Segolene Royal would have probably had a more principled foreign policy than Sarkozy as the French right has tended to be quite mercenary in its foreign policy. Sarkozy seems to be headed that way, at least in LatAm. Note also that the social democrats of France have rebuked Chavez in ways that the right has never done, that I know of anyway. And then people wonder how come I tend to vote Socialist in France, but I digress...

What Chavez said reflected 1) his complete ignorance of French political history and 2) his willingness to distort anything he can distort to suit his goals.

French presidency was a 7 year term affair established in the constitution of 1871. That constitution was written at a time when France was not sure it would return to a monarchic system or move forward a republican one. Thus the head of state was designed as a weak constitutional monarchy: either a president or a king could take over the job and either one will be equally well controlled by the parliament. That is the way the French system was from 1871 until 1958: a strong parliamentarian system where the head of state, a president it turned out over time, was only good enough to inaugurate exhibits and make colorful state visits outside of the country. The president by the way was elected by the French Congress, not the people!!!

Obviously in such system a president could be president for life: there was no way he could affect much the destinies of the country. In fact this was even implied in a 7 year term which aimed at promoting a certain idea of stability through a symbolic figure/fatherly head.

But in 1958 the constitution was changed and the president got more power. In 1962 the president became elected by the people and the consequence was a slow but continuous shift towards a more presidential system. Today France is a hybrid system: when the president benefits of a parliamentarian majority France is in fact a presidential system. But f a president loses that majority, the new Prime minister from the opposition becomes the real ruler of France. Still, this has been bothersome to the political class and in effort to acknowledge that presidential drift a first reform was voted where Presidential Term and Legislative Terms were given the same time period, five years. And going further, Sarkozy has offered to change further the constitution by giving the president two consecutive terms only.

Chavez failed to mention that about France. Imagine that! But then again Chavez consistently fails to mention such elements as strong institutions, rule of law and separation of powers, institutions that allow French people to sleep tight at night even if their president can be in theory still elected ad infinitum. In fact, even the great De Gaulle was forced out of office and he was certainly of another caliber than Chavez and had achieved quite more.

-The end-

Recall Election in Venezuela: follow up

Well, it seems that the final result was even worse than expected (read preceding post).

According to El Nacional (subscription only) of the 168 petitions only one has a chance to succeed. Even if Jose Vicente Rangel tries to pin down the blame on the opposition, the numbers tell a story of outmost failure for the chavista project. Let's look at the preliminary result for Didalco Bolivar, governor of Aragua state who was a few weeks ago duly insulted by Chavez who asked that his followers petition for a recall election. Well, to force a recall election on Didalco Bolivar the petitioners must obtain 199,552 signatures (20% of the registered voters in Aragua). Guess how many might have been raised? Less than 3,000. Not even 1.5% of what was needed. Barely 0.3% of Aragua registered electors.

It is with such numbers that you truly measure the cynicism of Rangel. Was it the opposition fault that the petition drive failed so miserably in Aragua? Is the opposition supposed to make Chavez dirty work even in removing those among his followers that have ceased to please him?

In other words, chavismo tonight is trying to find desperately a scapegoat for the catastrophe of this weekend. None of them of course is even able to wonder if the Tascon list might just have had a tiny effect on the overly dismal result.

Comic Relief

Fortunately there is also the comic aspect of it, which comes rather unexpectedly from Tarek William Saab, the governor of Anzoategui, where the petition drive against him has failed equally as miserably as the one for Didalco Bolivar.

To begin with he dares to say that there should be financial sanctions of those who called for such an expensive process that yielded such pitiful results.

So far so good.

Unfortunately for Tarek his mouth kept running. The islamo-fascist creep that he has become seems to believe that since less than 0.5% of his state voters signed against him, then it must be a reflection of what an extraordinary governor he is. He claims, for example, that he has inaugurated more public works in two years than the 5 previous governors combined in all their terms, full or not. I suppose that we should perhaps define what is a "public work". Does for example refurbishing the toilets of the sate house count as one of the 1500 plus achievements he claims?

But it gets better as the picture on the right shows: Tarek was ready with a victory poster!!!!! You may click to enlarge and thus read the edifying democratic words in the poster published in El Universal. I translate part of them:

"...petition promoted by tiny group of traitors to the progress of our region, [group] lead by a well known traitor of the bolivarian revolution."

"...demonstrating that treason and corruption have failed." [sic]

And I will pass on the title that leads one to think that 99.5% of Anzoategui is for Tarek...

Now, with such a language, with such a way to describe the "tiny group" that asked for a Recall Election can you honestly think of such a petition ever to happen again in Anzoategui? at least as long as Tarek is governor? Because you got that right, if you want to hold a recall election against Tarek William Saab, you are a traitor. I suppose that now Tarek should go an prosecute (persecute?) them petitioners/traitors..............

And so gets buried once and for all the recall election process in Venezuela.

Hey, Hugo, why not cancel these constitutional articles in the constitution modification you are planning in secret? Let's not bother with this farce anymore, you are the big boss and the only one whose electoral defeat would matter. The other ones are all your peons, we know that. Let's cut the crap and call things the way they are.

-The end-