Wednesday, August 10, 2016

No recall election in 2016: one hidden motive

As a supplement of yesterday's post where I explained why there would not be a Recall Election , or any election for that matter, we got some declarations today that definitely rule out a recall election in 2016. That is, these declarations technically do not rule out such a referendum but they describe very well that chavismo simply will not accept a recall election before January 10, 2017. After, we'll see but do not get your hopes high and at any rate it would be useless, ta-ta...

Now let's look at what is "new" today. Nothing really, just more clarity, so to speak.

First, we had one of the electoral board CNE rectors coming out to defend the speech of Lucena yesterday. Sandra Oblitas repeated all the same crap that they cannot be pressured, that they respected all the rules (it is a matter of public knowledge that this is a lie), etc...  But what is important here is that she took a potshot at Rondon dissent yesterday. That hinted at a surprise for the regime  4 CNE agents. The dissent was hard enough, surprising enough for them that they sent Oblitas for some desperate damage control. When I mean desperate I do not mean this as a mark of them feeling threatened, but that their lies were so easily exposed that they had to attack Rondon lacking any other argument.

At any rate, the threat that Oblitas also mentioned that the MUD would be outlawed is the favorite theme of Jorge Rodriguez, mayor of Caracas West and former real boss of the CNE at the time of the first fraud systems circa 2003. I am not going to comment on what is now the calculated hysteria Rodriguez exhibits as his assigned role (could it be otherwise, that he was assigned such a role?). The point of commenting him is that he said that the earliest date for any referendum is late February 2017. This is interesting. First, by late February the opposition will have lost any interest in the referendum and something else will be at the forefront. Second, his subconscious admits that there will be an election next year and the only one I can think of is the governor election (which are due in December 2016 and are quietly forgotten by the regime). That is, the regime knows that sooner than later it will have to face a poll of some sort that it will not win.

What Rodriguez truly hints at is that the failure to hold the recall election this year will be seen by the country as a political defeat and thus they will gravitate back toward chavismo as the only force available. That is exactly what Maduro hinted at last night in one of his vile cadenas (in English here). This poor and vulgar soul had the temerity to gloat over the failure of the opposition to collect the signatures for the recall vote on time. Apparently he is blissfully unaware that no sitting president in Venezuelan recent history has polled as low as he does. Were he aware he would have the good sense not to gloat while his regime is so blatantly cheating.

Certainly the coordination between all these post Lucena declarations is no accident. However the rather hysterical combination of outburst indicates to me something else. The regime is not even intent on postponing an eventual recall election, what the regime truly is seeking is to stop the collection of signatures. By discouraging such activity the regime does not hope to void the recall election (for this it has the high court annulation of the opposition party in the works) but it hopes that were the signature collection to become a must the 20% would not be passed too badly.  The problem for the regime is that the way things are developing there will not be 20% signing to recall Maduro: there will be more people signing for his recall than actually voted for him. And this political disaster is simply too much for chavismo.

At least if the recall is held after January 2017 there is the hope that discouragement of the populace will yield no more than, say, 30% signatures of the electoral body. Enough to oust Maduro in a vote but not enough for regime change.

The opposition truly has its work cut out.


  1. I said a while ago that Castro will not lose Venezuela under any circumstances, and we need to remember that Maduro simply works for him.

    1. Castro will let go of Venezuela if there's a concerted set of economic sanctions placed on his regime. This worked with South Africa's apartheid regime, and will work with Raúl, but the option won't be exercised as long as the Obamites and the Europeans remain focused on Israel lobby agendas and protect the Castro regime.

  2. "The opposition truly has its work cut out."

    Leopoldo is in jail, Maria Corina has probably been threatened too many times and is tired, and Capriles just loves to travel and hug people, doing nothing, year after year. The rest of the MUD is probably mostly bribed by now, and highly incompetent

    And what can they do against the corrupt military, the corrupt TSJ and the corrupt CNE, plus the corrupt guardia nacional and putrid police? In a country full of thugs and corruption everywhere, a dictatorship of sorts, if you talk too loud you end up shot, or in jail, or someone in your family gets hurt. Same goes for regular people: if they hit the streets they are repressed by the chavista regime, possibly hurt. That's why the "street protests" are so meager and ineffective. The one next month called by Chuo will be the same.

    Now why don't the Chavista thugs accept a referendum? Because they are Thieves that love Power and Money. Because they have nowhere to go, unless they are willing to flee with their stolen millions to Europe. But they can't even speak English.. so they wouldn't be too comfortable. And because they risk jail at some point. And loss of properties.

    And because every month counts: They can steal a lot every month. So if they hang on to power 5 months, or until the 2019 Presidential elections, well that's a lot of cash to steal every week. That way they buy time, bribe more people, and figure out an escape plan.

    1. They can't go to Europe, forget that. In the weeks immediately after losing power, international warrants for their arrest will be issued. Any Western European country will snatch them up and deliver them to the waiting hands of the US DEA. Basically, they have two choices, Cuba or Nicaragua. Either way, the protection money they will be forced to pay to their "comrades in revolution" will be very steep indeed. The high life will be over, and a life of looking over their shoulder will begin. Ask yourself, where is Manuel Noriega right now?

  3. Anonymous6:55 PM

    One question. Maduro assumed power, after Chavez died, in April of 2013.

    According to Article 233 of the Constituiton, if a recall occurs within the first 4 years of a presidential term, then a new election is called.

    4 years from April 2013 is April 2017. So why the drama?

    Anon 242

  4. I cannot imagine the regime doing anything less then occured in Cuba during Castros run. Referendum will not happen such as to remove the regime and by the time 2019 elections come they will start the Cuban minimal daily food ration or hand out, and make minimal improvements to medicine and crime rate. Result after so many years of awful living many will take that as improvement and regime's media will crank out lies about the peoples satisfaction with the improvements and the regime will then simply steal the election. Like Cuba everone will know in the world the election was a fix much the same as past ones and the regime will carry on forever. The opposition still thinking the regime is incompotent will have once again be outsmarted.


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