Wednesday, September 21, 2016

There we are not, at freedom

Long time I did not write a summary of what is going on. As usual there is a big yawn along as everything changes fast but everything is, in the end, the same: a gang of thugs will do whatever it is possible to retain power because they know what awaits them once they lose. Nevermind the culture of violence that goes with such mentality where only brute force is the argument. Negotiation? Only to gain time until I finally find a way to screw you once and for all.

This been said things are not going any better for the regime. True, the vice president and the communist minister of economy are saying that lines are lesser, that we are turning around a corner, that imports are on the rise since January, etc.  The reality is that indeed lines are lesser. See, supplies are lesser so there is no need to stand in line for stuff that will not come in. Shopping on weekends for groceries is great: since there are no deliveries anymore on Saturdays then what is left is for the people that have money enough to buy what the hoi polloi cannot afford. For the first time in years I am hitting again grocery stores on Saturdays (Sundays are, well, empty no matter what). As for the commie minister (he used to be a PCV member before jumping ship to Chavez), someone in his office should point to him that historically January has always been the lowest month for importation since the country is out of business until mid January. No dockers....

Politically the big fight remains the Recall Election before January 10 2017 since after that date a chased Maduro can name his successor, no election needed for the next two years. As I suspected long ago, it is not going to happen no matter what the opposition does. Too much at stake for the regime. Yet the good fight must be done in the off chance that a division inside chavismo allows in the end for the recall election; or,  better, we have Maduro resign before January 10 (which I think is what will happen if chavismo decides not to go full metal jacket on repression).

The strategy of the "legal" chavismo (and institutional military?)  is to wait as long as possible in the vain hope that oil prices go up just enough to resupply a little bit food shelves and thus make electoral defeat not a fact. Since production is not promoted and that economic repression is getting worse, I do not see how can this happen even if within one year oil were to go back to, say, 80 a barrel. But chavismo is entitled to dream too.

Meanwhile the "illegal" chavismo (and narko military?), the one that does not give a crap about appearances and that wants not only to get rid of the opposition but also of timorate chavistas, is forging ahead. The packed high court (never a dissenting opinion in the TSJ) has annulled anything the National Assembly does. The problem is that we need to vote next year budget and the constitution is quite clear in that it can only be approved through a National Assembly vote. We are sure that the TSJ will write something to annul yet a new sector of the constitution which for all practical purposes is only good enough to replace scarce toilet paper. The final head-on conflict must happen in the next weeks as the to-do list of TSJ before the end of the year is 1) annul the recall election proceeding 2) decide the budget 3) bar the nomination of a new electoral board 4) support legally repression and, why not, 5) disolve parliament without electing a new one.

While chavismo is desperately establishing a dictatorship without any popular support things outside are not improving for them either. The non aligned summit of last week was a fiasco as only a dozen of the 100+ head of state showed up. And we are talking here of Mugabe, Castro and other undesirable ones that have zero credentials on democracy. No luster from the summit except perhaps for some lumpen chavismo, part of it being carried to a refuge like tent city nearby the luxury hotels to provide Maduro with the adoring crowds he needs to prove his alleged popularity. Indeed, since Maduro was pot banged live in Margarita Villa Rosa community the regime takes no chances, from jailing as many as possible to bring its own sycophants along.

And I will pass on MERCOSUR giving an ultimatum to Maduro...

Thus repression keeps apace. What else could the regime do? We learned this early week alone that now Leopoldo Lopez is deprived of any light at night in his jail, that they search him and force him to undress uncounted number of time, etc...  all enough to deserve for the regime a boat load of human rights crimes trials against the regime. But the best example of regime fear and desperation came today.

Primero Justicia hired three guys to do a video on the situation and against repression. The army quickly jailed the three producers on treason charges and put the three civilians at the disposition of a military tribunal. So there you are (while the leadership of Primero Justicia is so far untouched by the army...)


A short summary of what happens in the video.

The girl tends to her sick mother. She looks at the empty fridge and texts her father to tell him that she is off to stand in line because she cannot find the medicine for her Mom and that there is no food at home. It just happens that her father is in the army and getting ready to repress a student march. The daughter reminds her father that the people he is about to repress suffer of the same problems that they do.

Too close for comfort?



  2. Good summary of Vzla's complex situation.

    "While chavismo is desperately establishing a dictatorship without any popular support things outside are not improving for them either."

    They already established a dictatorship of sorts. What have the MUD and the "parliament' been able to accomplish? Nothing.

    I'll call it a disguised, narco-robo neo-dictatorship. (DIRNDL)

    You see, first they disguise themselves as 'socialism' or 'democracy'. They hold phony elections, attend phony international meeting, talk about Bolivar, jail some people but not too many.. allow for some protests, to some point, allow some free media and TV - with restrictions and intimidation and threats - El Nacional still gets printed, many others were shut down. People can leave the country, they are actually encouraged to.. unlike Cuba. Thus, it's a rare form of Narco-Robo-Neo-Disguised-Latino-Dictatorship.

    Above all, they want to keep stealing, getting richer, as fast as possible. That's the real "motor" and motive behind the entire system. Not 'socialism', not idealisms, , nope, theft and Capitalism is what drives the entire regime. They are simply spineless thieves.

    Now they are desperately "raspando la olla" - stealing the last crumbs left. So a few more months in power mean a lot to them, because they can really get that olla cleaned out.

    Also, if they are not too dumb and completely retarded, the thieves in charge of Venezuela's 35 ministries and government are looking for a way out. Not only do they risk loosing their enormous stolen fortunes, in Vzla and overseas, but they risk jail time. So if they have not been recently lobotomized they are looking for plans B and C. That means changing identities, moving the entire family to Uruguay or Australia, moving bank accounts to other names and countries.. selling properties, etc. That takes time.

    If the next MUD government, under Ramos Allup, or Capriles do what they should, all Chavistas should be running away like rats jumping ship. Unfortunately, many will probably be forgiven, and reabsorbed into the Muddy MUD. Because, as Venezuela's entire history proves, the MUD won't be very honest, lawful, and righteous. The MUD will be plagued with corruption too. As always. Not as bad as Chavismo, but corrupt. Will the MUD fix the economy? Of course not. Will they control crime and murders? Perhaps, but not much. That's what many people do not understand. Venezuela is intrinsically sick. Poorly educated. With bad habits. And the corrupt thieves are everywhere, at all levels. It's not "get rid of Maduro and things will be great".. Venezuela has decades of misery ahead, Maduro or no Maduro, good luck to the next administration.

  3. I was talking to my Venezuelan wife and she was telling me how primary classes at schools like math are being replaced with how to grow crops. What a joke as a generation's education will be worthless.

    China's latest position of let Venezuela sink we will not invest more money should greatly accelerate the economic demise of Venezuela. However there is still no sign of regime change. Drug money can pay the generals and the regime and the people already live completely miserable and have shown they are not willing to do anything. No opposition to fire them up, rally them to through out the regime. Clearly the recall referendum is nothing more then a waste of time and directing focus away from real action, which is to say Capriles (who coincidentally never gets charged with anything) is aiding the regime buying it a year to completely break any fight the people may have.
    Sledge as you say the opposition is corrupt to and the billions the regime heads have will easily by them out of any true crimes if they ever lose power. Just the stooge Maduro will pay, everyone else behind the scenes will live like a king by buying their freedom. Keep in mind this happens all over the world even in the USA.

    1. There's corruption everywhere, in different levels. Venezuela is, per capita, on of the most corrupt countries in the world. Almost every one is stealing, at all levels, private and public sectors.

      Sure there's some corruption in France or Canada or the USA, but if they get caught, they usually lose their jobs and/or go to jail in a hurry. In Vzla, no one gets punished, total impunity, thus the formidable levels of corruption, everywhere.

  4. I really can't seem to understand why you think the entire regime, if anyone , will do jailtime. You should get used to the idea that maybe Maduro -and it's a longshot- might face some sort of trial, but besides him all the high-ranking chavismo will live happily ever after when/if they get ousted.

    1. Agree.. Most Chavistas will probably get away with murder. And enjoy their stolen fortunes in some other country, and even in Venezuela.. The MUD is already talking about "forgiveness", and inclusion of chavistas, to absorb them back in the next government. Huge mistake. That sets a precedent that anyone can steal, and commit crimes, with no consequences. If a robber, or murderer, or thieve commits multiple crimes, and doesn't go to jail, he will continue to do the same, and others will imitate him. That's one of the things that's seriously wrong with Venezuela: 99% impunity. And the few that go to jail, have parties, and even pools, fine food, girlfriends visiting, drug trade, they live a nice life with Iris Varela.. It's just pathetic. Jail has to be Jail, a very tough time. In Vzla sometimes it's like club Med.


Comments policy:

1) Comments are moderated after the sixth day of publication. It may take up to a day or two for your note to appear then.

2) Your post will appear if you follow the basic polite rules of discourse. I will be ruthless in erasing, as well as those who replied to any off rule comment.