Saturday, June 24, 2017

From official terror to article 350 - 2) state terrorism reflects chavismo division

The murder yesterday of David Vallenilla hit a new low, and hit a rawer nerve in the population. Murder, yes, point blank shooting murder, as seen in video but not on TV that the regime censors.

In this video you can see clearly that:

1) the kids were certainly no threat to the "military" base which is nothing but the private airport for the regime and the army. With stones they certainly would not do much harm to fully decked cops; besides, as long as they do not try to tear down the fences, what is the problem?

2) the soldiers were goading the kids more than they were goading them.

3) the aviation cop (as established later) shot the kid once and shot him against while he had fallen on the floor

4) another cop tried to shot the kid that came to rescue the victim who stood up and gave some steps until he fell dead.

And there have been other videos of other incidents equally harrowing where not only the state exerts brutal force but also with criminal and terror intent.

But my point is not to denounce terrorism, that I have done long ago. The point today is to look at what is behind it, why it has been growing. I think that in (large?) part it is due to divisions within chavismo, agonizing between narco-military, corrupto-military, corrupto-civilian, deluded marxists and some other.

The previous horrifying crime, the one of last Mo day, was the use of forbidden weapons to kill a protester, all caught on video. To make it worse we could not call that an isolated lone wolf: since then it was established that 3 guards violated their own rules and at least one of them shot deliberately, whatsoever not in panic from retreating.

That video prompted the regime to fire Benavides, the head of the Nazional Guard. His replacement did not have time to prove any good intentions he may have had: the aviation police put its first murder three days later. Almost as if someone had decided to curtail that cleaning up move (note: the new Nazional Guard chief has been pointed out as possible accessory to torture).

And this all after Maduro and the defense minister Padrino say that they asked not to use illegal weapons, etc...

The only explanation that comes to mind is that the increased vileness of the repression and the obvious orders and counter orders that are, or are not, followed reflect disorder, divisions and sabotage within the regime.  Why that is happening is easy to guess: the economic crisis keeps worsening; the constituant assembly has failed to ignite any passion; the international pressure is growing; or at least the likelihood that too many in the regime will never be able to leave Venezuela; that the price of oil is not rising and that as such there is not enough money around for all to steal to their heart's content.

So who is playing?

Diosdado Cabello has been very vocal, very threatening. He also seems to have taken control of the constitutional process where  at first it seemed more of a Maduro thing. Diosdado will strive on violence. He is the more at risk in a future non chavista government. For him all is acceptable so to remain in charge.

On the other side there is the vice president Tareck El Aissami who after landing on the US treasury narco terror list has become increasingly silent. Oh, he does make irruptions occasionally but compared to Maduro or Diosdado, one would never think that he is the vice.

Maduro does not count. He is following a script. Only problem it seems that the script is rewritten too frequently for him to follow convincingly.

The general prosecutor Luisa Ortega has become the embodiment of the dissident chavismo. Not quite in the opposition yet, but definitely out of the narco regime, trying to salvage what can be saved from earlier chavismo. And certainly she represents more than herself.

The army....  well, between those who want a lot of repression and those that are not so keen there is no doubt that the gap is widening. In the end it is the army that will need to solve its internal divisions and pick or make up a winning side within chavismo. Then the price to pay to get rid of the losing side of chavismo will be to let the opposition gain at least a share of power.  That is how it will end.

That or civil war.

1 comment:

  1. Cabello will be easy to handle, he's a gangster, won't command the nearly religious zeal a well formed communist would.


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