Sunday, August 13, 2017

Mirada descarnada a la invasión gringa

Esto lo escribo en cristiano porque los gringos saben muy bien que Trump es un bocón. No que en un futuro más bien lejano no nos suelten 4 drones encima, pero simplemente ellos tienen otros asuntos más urgentes que atender en este momento. Aquí les estoy escribiendo a unos cuantos venezolanos que se retuercen en agonía y jolgorio (de ambos bandos) ante un putativo desembarco de Marines.

Antes que todo, cualesquiera sean los fundamentos de una invasión a mi patria, eso significa guerra, poder arbitrario para los dos ejércitos, daños materiales y psicológicos inconmensurables. Siendo profundamente anti-militarista no puedo suscribir a cualquier guerra aunque desafortunadamente hay que aceptar que en ciertos casos no hay opción. Ejemplo, contra ISIS.


Pero cualquier guerra siempre empieza con un propósito que puede ser o no la justificación publica de dicha guerra. La invasión a Polonia era para unir Prusia a Alemania cuando el propósito real era controlar Europa y los judíos.

Pero a veces una guerra tiene intereses nacionales inescapables: te tengo que joder antes de que me jodas a mí. El peor ejemplo es tal vez Pearl Harbor donde, injustificadamente, los japoneses atacaron primero. Lo hicieron porque ya estaban en guerra y sabían que tarde o temprano los americanos iban a atacarlos.

Pues veamos cuales serían los motivos de los gringos para invadir a Venezuela.

El petróleo no es. Siento desilusionar a muchos, en particular a los chaburristas rajados, pero el petróleo venezolano si bien es importante para la economía mundial NO ES INDISPENSABLE. Los EE.UU dañarían a Venezuela mucho más dejando de comprar su petróleo que invadiéndola para controlarlo. Y sin derramar una sola gota de sangre Marine. Me explico. Si de repente los gringos paran en seco las compras de petróleo venezolano les causaría un problema. Les faltaría tal vez un 10% de sus importaciones y eso implicaría un aumento mundial del precio del petróleo, pero no tanto. Al volverse más rentable fracking y equivalentes en pocos meses la producción americana subiría lo suficiente y problema resuelto.

Mientras tanto Venezuela se las vería negras viendo a quien le vende su petróleo pesado y contaminante ya que no tiene dinero para construir refinerías y mató la orimulsión que era un apoyo para preparar petróleo pesado. Chávez nos volvió vulnerable, no es culpa de los gringos. Métanse eso en la cabeza.

La minería no es. Dos razones muy sencillas. Una es que los gringos no van a invertir en un país forajido sin seguridad jurídica. Ese "arco minero" nunca termina de arrancar porque, en gran parte, hay demasiados militares y enchufados que quieren su tajada, y si es posible por adelantado. La otra es que con las leyes laborales de Venezuela es simplemente imposible tener la eficiencia requerida en los negocios de commodities. De hecho los chinos traen sus trabajadores cuando pueden.

Otros no son. EL turismo no se puede desarrollar por el desastre de la infraestructura, la inseguridad y la contaminación de muchas playas. La agricultura ni hablar. Entre los saqueos, las invasiones y los secuestros ni de vaina los gringos que duermen en sus campos con su puerta sin pasar la llave van a invertir un piche dólar. Y agrego que la ética laboral del venezolano después de 18 años de chavismo impide que tanto el turismo como la agricultura puedan desarrollarse y ser rentables rápidamente... Ese problema no se arregla ni con 100.000 marines en Venezuela.

¿Pues entonces que queda? Si los gringos no nos invaden por razones económicas, por cual razón lo harían. Veo tres.

Por interés geopolítico. Si China y Rusia se quieren afincar demasiado en Venezuela eso podría ser inaceptable para los gringos. La pregunta aquí es si en verdad le conviene a los rusos y a los chinos instalar una base militar en Venezuela. ¿Para qué? ¿Les darán Turiamo o Mochima así sin chistar? ¿Se calarán tener que traer TODO, desde central eléctrica hasta tratamiento de agua? ¿Trabajarán con venezolanos rateros y bachaqueros que tratarán de robar todo lo que puedan de las bases para revenderlo? Sorry, pero yo no veo los rusos o los chinos metiendo más que una base aérea, si acaso. Y eso para obligar a los gringos a negociar algo y al firmarlo se van de Venezuela volando. Además si Rusia o China quieren enfrentar a los EE.UU tienen sitios más estratégicos que Venezuela.

Porque nos vamos a volver un narco estado completo. Si la dictadura logra imponerse con la constituyente los que van a ganar de verdad son los narco militares. Tener una base sólida, tener un sistema complaciente, tener un país amplio y difícil de monitoreo en pleno es el sueño húmedo de generaciones de narcotraficantes. ¿Y qué pasa si los narcos lo logran? Muy sencillo. El narco tráfico es tal vez el sistema capitalista más salvaje que haya. Una de sus necesidades es expandir mercados. Por lo tanto hasta cultivos extensos de droga aparecerán en Venezuela. Venezuela se convertirá en un gran suplidor de drogas, aun más si lo demás de la economía termina de desplomarse. Los narcos en Venezuela trataran de crear nuevos mercados, conquistar redes ya existentes en todo el continente. Y eso trae una violencia y una corrupción que los EE.UU no podrán aceptar.

La ola de refugiados. Ya el chavismo ha creado posiblemente 2 millones de refugiados venezolanos a través del mundo. Si se consolida el estado narco traficante, si no arreglan la economía, calculen cuanto millones más se irán. ¿Aceptarán eso los gringos? Y no hablo del resto de América Latina, en particular Colombia que podría tener rápidamente cientos de miles de refugiados económicos. Una cosa fue acoger los venezolanos preparados que se fueron ya. Otra cosa será acoger venezolanos sin preparación, por millares y millares.

Así que ya saben lo que hay que hacer para evitar una invasión gringa, o de quien sea. Un primer paso sería eliminar el ejército narco corrupto. Total, después de Oscarcito y Paramacay esa gente no es capaz de defender nada.

Pero tranquilos, falta mucho todavía antes de que sea necesario invadir a Venezuela. Nosotros mismos nos auto-destruiremos antes.

25 comments:

  1. The "gringos" are not going to invade - nor anyone from the United States military. To a citizen from the United States, the idea of the United States invading Venezuela seems crazy.

    What is being contemplated by the Trump administration is disrupting Cuba's hold on Venezuela and doing what we can to hurt Maduro.

    The contemplated actions are more sanctions against Cuba and perhaps freezing accounts, and making it more difficult for Cuba to take from Venezuela. Second, we are contemplating not buying oil from Venezuela.

    What would the impact of this be? Well, the US is one of the countries that has refineries that are configured to refine Venezuela oil. If the US does not buy from Venezuela, this would force the US to buy oil from someone else. If we do that, then we would probably be buying more Saudi heavy oil instead. Venezuela would in turn ship their oil somewhere else in the world. The net impact would be to lower the price of Venezuela oil by about $2.00 or $3.00 a barrel and increase the cost of heavy oil to the US by around $1.00 a barrel.



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    2. Sorry--typo.

      Are we forgetting Canadian oil? Granted, it would have been nice to have Keystone XL functioning but I've often read that oil is very similar to Venezuela's heavy product. It certainly doesn't carry the political/ethical baggage of propping up a dictator.

      Delete
  2. Fair and ironic analysis. Too many Venezuelans tend to think our little country is more important geo-politically or economically in the World than it really is. 30 million people and some heavy oil ain't nothing internationally these days. Heck, as most Europeans, Asians, Australians, Hindus or Chinese or Americans where Venezuela is.. most wouldn't know, (and they're often better educated than most Venezuelans are). Only a bunch of EX-presidents seem to care. Santos better care too, but he's a twisted weasel. Trump? He'll do what the Congress says, and what 3 dozen advisers advise, thus probably not much. Invasion? Yeah, right.. now a few surgical, covert CIA moves, maybe, Go Seal Team 6!!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Daniel, the best military/political option appears to be for the USA to stop all shipping unless it's approved by the National Assembly and Luisa Ortega, because they are the sole remaining constitutional powers (Maduro ceded his power to the ANC when he declared it was plenipotentiary).

    The USA should take action after it makes sure a few deputies are outside the country so they can exercise this control function. USA can also advise that any military units declaring loyalty to the AN and Luisa Ortega will receive air support.

    If the regime insists on holding power and military units fail to start a rebellion within two weeks, the USA force can start selectively taking out SEBIN, PNB and colectivos using drones. And if after two weeks military units still refuse to rebel then they can get the full decapitation treatment. I don't think the regime will withstand such a sequence when most if the population will be backing the AN and Ortega.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Anonymous6:50 PM

    Daniel I do not understand you logic on oil. Under the current regime and path the oil fields and assets will belong to Russian state owned companies. This will be impossible to recover in the future when the major USA oil companies want to develop them. Plus will give Russia much more energy control in the world, likely the largest energy empire, much bigger then the Saudi's. If the USA was to invade prior to this and ensure a USA capital minded gov't was to be in power then immediately the USA oil companies could start development again in Venezuela and be a major energy power for the foreseeable future. I see no way for the USA to displace Russia once cemented into those oil fields and lets remember fracking will run dry in the USA and USA will once again be import dependent. Oil is the primary reason the USA would take military action to avoid Russian owning the oil fields. Much the same they dropped the 2nd nuke on Japan to cause an immediate surrender and division of land conquered prior to the Russians taking it all as that had mobilized to do.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "Recovering" oil fields from Rosneft would be easy. The contracts have two serious flaws: 1. They weren't approved by the National Assembly and 2. They don't include international arbitration.

      I worked in the oil industry for over 40 years, and part of my career involved working in teams engaged in "boilerplating" contracts, from what I can see the Russians ordered Rosneft to make the deals, without much regard to the contract quality. It's also possible that Rosneft management lacks the know how to understand what they are getting into. Rosneft has a link to BP, but that company is not known to have quality lawyers, they are more into trading, signing deals and then wiggling out of trouble as best they can. This attitude may have rubbed off on Rosneft.

      Delete
  5. David B9:29 AM

    You forgot to include the fourth reason for US military intervention: Diosdado Cabello assassinating a US senator.

    ReplyDelete
  6. As if....Por Favoooor......this is tthe utterances of an old guy trying to distract....it sure worked.
    Look...we all know where the cancer starts...CUBA.
    If you want to stop all this shit....you go to the Island....you end them....this would actually be worth blood and gold....venezuela??..not so much

    ReplyDelete
  7. The US's major concern in South America is Brazil. Everything revolves around the strategy of limiting Brazilian power. Taking out a country (read Venezuela) that is an ally of Brazil's is good from the US govt's POV. Not to mention bringing Venezuela back into the US empire's orbit could give the US access to bases there putting more of it's power on Brazil's borders. Keeping Brazil focused on its borders keeps them from focusing on building a stronger navy & projecting power in the south Atlantic & western Africa.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous1:42 PM

      Your joking correct? Isn't Brazil 50 years away from building any credible threat of a Navy if they had the wealth to ever build one? I do not believe a Brazilian navy threat has ever came up in any conversation anywhere. USA pays Brazil a 100 million a year to use their military bases. Plus 65% of Brazilians view the USA favorably and their Defense Minister and military is completely aligned with the USA saying what is good for the USA is good for Brazil.

      Delete
    2. The joke's on you Anonymous. There are all kinds of studies on Brazilian power. All you have to do is look at more than the MSM:

      "This rising power will soon find itself with a blue-water navy and, as such, military vessels flying the Brazilian ensign will become an increasingly frequent sight in the South Atlantic."
      http://cimsec.org/brazilian-navy-green-blue/14475

      Brazil and Africa Bridge the South Atlantic
      https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/brazil-and-africa-bridge-south-atlantic

      '...in his book The Next Decade, Stratfor founder George Friedman offers some clues as to how the power elite perceives the sudden rise of Brazil on the world stage. Brazil, he writes, is not a power that is “particularly threatening or important to the United States,” and “there is minimal economic friction.” In the long term, however, Friedman adds that “there is only one Latin American country with the potential to emerge as a competitor to the United States in its own right, and that is Brazil.”

      'Eventually, adds Friedman, Brazil could pose an economic challenge if it developed its air and naval power so as to dominate the Atlantic between its coast and West Africa, “a region not heavily patrolled by the United States.” This could lead to “a South Atlantic not only dominated by Brazil but with Brazilian naval forces based on both the Brazilian and the African coasts.”'
      http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nikolas-kozloff/snowden-fallout-us-wary-o_b_3997540.html

      Delete
    3. Brazil is doomed to always be powerful in the future. A future that remains tantalizingly almost within their grasp.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous1:51 PM

      By that logic any country in the world could pose a similar threat in its ocean regions. Is a highly unlikely hypothesis that certainly will not have the USA taking military action on Venezuela as a result of. Brazil's economy is a complete mess with no sign of turning the corner and if they are investing heavy into ships to float between S Africa and S America they definitely will not have the money to invest into building any high power economy. Plus given no massive oil fields or other resource to leap Brazil to where it could even attempt such a maneuver would require a very smart capitalistic leader who likely would align with the USA.

      Delete
    5. You guys go back to what the MSM is feeding you.

      Delete
  8. Anonymous1:02 AM

    One more reason; if Maduro allows Hezbollah and ISIS to use Venezuela as a launch pad and/or training ground, such as Afghanistan prior to 9/11, there might be some type of limited military action. Along those same lines, if Venezuela is the source of passports and false ID's for terrorists that carry out attacks elsewhere, including the US.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous1:33 PM

      Not getting rid of the current narco-regime is a long-term threat to the security of US.

      Delete
  9. All of the above comments might very will be true, but remember that Trump was talking out of his rump.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Anyone who tolerates the Ven military ,the collectives, the Cuban invasion, the Hezbollah , the Farc ,etc oppressing the people is not anti Military...he is only anti opposition military.

    ReplyDelete
  11. #URGENTE La dictadura de Nicolás Maduro disolvió el Parlamento de mayoría opositora en Venezuela

    ReplyDelete
  12. Anonymous9:57 AM

    Quite amusing, why would anyone from the USA care much about Venezuelans. Venezuelans are enjoying the govt. they chose after all, and would only complain about gringo imperialism should the US do anything to change that. There's plenty of oil in the world, and no shortage of decent places to visit. Enjoy your lives.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Dan has not posted in a week. I am concerned. I will pray for you Daniel and I will Pray for the people of Venezuela.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for your concern Bepi. But look on the right of the blog: there is a frame with my latest two tweets, That way you will know whether I am active. I rarely go a day without indulging on Twitter addiction :-)

      Delete
  14. A couple of weeks without visiting this blog.
    Many years ago i said two things, one that Hugo would not finish his term, the first one oh boy, how i was wrong.
    The second was precisely this: "falta mucho todavía antes de que sea necesario invadir a Venezuela. Nosotros mismos nos auto-destruiremos antes".
    I don´t feel alone or crazy anymore.

    ReplyDelete

Comments policy:

1) Comments are moderated after the fourth day of publication. It may take up to a day or two for your note to appear then.

2) Your post will appear if you follow the basic rules. I will be ruthless in erasing, as well as those who replied to any off rule comment.

3) COMMENT RULES:
Do not be repetitive.
Do not bring grudges and fights from other blogs here (this is the strictest rule).
This is an anti Chavez/chavismo blog, Readers have made up their minds long ago. Trying to prove us wrong is considered a troll. Still, you are welcome as a chavista to post if you want to explain us coherently as to why chavismo does this or that. We are still waiting for that to happen.
Insults and put downs are frowned upon and I will be sole judge on whether to publish them.

Followers