Wednesday, May 16, 2018

The ruin of Falcon Crest

What legacy will Henri Falcon's stunt leave us?  His ulterior motives at this point are of little interest. Many a speculation swirls, from him being Raul Castro choice to do the transition government, to him being an overambitious military a la Chavez.

Rather, let's look why his candidature was fraud since day one, and thus why his campaign is so flawed that even his victory will not be recognized. Next, as concise a summary as possible for those late in the game. (1)

First, his bid was born outside of the opposition electoral alliance MUD. His argument that there was no time to run a primary falls short. He could have sent an ultimatum to the MUD as to whether they decided to run and name a candidate or he would run anyway. Instead he registered discretely almost at the end of the registration period.


Then, instead of wooing the opposition and fighting hard to improve electoral conditions he spent time trying top convince overseas that the elections were legitimate. Any stunt was good enough. But, ill advised, he perpetrated the fatal mistake to go to the UN accompanied by one of the most repugnant regime's representative, Moncada. This was on March 13 and as far as I was concerned there was no need to follow his bid anymore, lacking absolutely of seriousness.

Maduro plastered the country, and only expensive billboards for Falcon appeared late in the campaign. To late for being of credible money. And certainly not enough to position him so late in the game.

His bid never attracted any serious support. From the very non PSUV left to María Corina Machado, they all called his game. There was rumor that Capriles would throw his lot with him, but in the end he wised up. The only people Falcon has been able to attract are failed and has been politicians, some of them already convicted of betrayal by the MUD as Pedro Pablo Fernandez. Actually someone bothered to add up the recent vote tally of the parties supporting Falcon. The sum barely reaches 1.5 million votes when Falcon would need at least 6 million to beat Maduro by a hair thin margin. With a MUD opposed to him and the effective blackmail of chavismo I do not see where he can get 5 millions. Surely him and his staff know that and yet the only argument that Falcon has advanced is that if he loses it would be the fault of the abstention, not his.

Speaking of losses. Falcon has never taken responsibility for his defeat in Lara last October. He has never accepted the fact that his meek actions of support in Lara during the protests of 2017 discouraged his potential, and even brought scorn on him.

Falcon also lies. To win an election he needs to staff with witnesses at least an 80% of electoral centers. Even the head of the electoral board CNE Tibsiay Lucena complained that no party was registering enough witnesses. The PSUV because they do not need to since the machinery works for them, and Falcon because without the MUD and a real campaign cannot make it. Why is he pretending that he has the witnesses instead of begging the opposition to help him at least on that count?

His demagoguery is par with the one of chavismo. Among his promises we read a dollarization of the economy with wages guaranteed in dollars. Where is he going to find them? That he does not tell us.  Serious economist like Ricardo Hausmann are actually saying that it is too late for dollarization, that the problem of the Venezuelan economy is that production is blocked by the regime policies and as such dollar or not we will continue eating shit for a while.  As a producer I know he is right in his assessment. Yet less serious economist like Francisco Rodriguez of Torino Capital keep insisting, raising even suspicion that he works for funds that have no nice ambitions over Venezuela's debt. He is touted as Falcon's future fiance minister. Enough said.

But his worse offense, the one that truly is killing him now is his promise when he signed up for election that the would remain in the race only as long as electoral conditions were to improve. They have not. In fact the blackmail of Maduro over the electorate has made things worse than ever. And yet Falcon clings to technicalities and does not withdraw. Falcon manages the feat of a politician breaking his promises BEFORE voting day.

Finally to stop a list that could be longer, there is the reality check of election time. Even if on May 21 we learn that Falcon has won, he will not be sworn in before January 2019.  That leaves 6 months to chavismo to annul the election, to annul his power, to put him into jail if necessary since the opposition will not go to defend Falcon as he did not earnestly defend opposition leaders thrown into jail.  Do not forget that there is an illegally elected constitutional assembly that is very much in existence and that can pop out a new constitution before January rendering moot the election of Falcon. It is strongly rumored that the constitution under preparation will be of fascist corporatism nature and as such the president would not be directly elected anymore. That or some other artifice. Falcon has not tackled that crucial problem that I know of.

You will understand that I see no reason, no circumstance, no need, no hope whatsoever to vote for Falcon. I would rather vote for Maduro to make sure the crisis comes faster and then we will see. A Falcon election would only be the prolongation of a never ending crisis, amazingly giving more time for chavismo to hide its ill acquired gains and even negotiate a "pardon" with Falcon.  Such a pardon is not a good option because the failed people that follow Falcon just want to have a share fo the pie and in fact, well, they do not care much about Venezuela. That would be Falcon's legacy.

I am staying home Sunday.

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1]) For the record, considering that chavismo or Maduro would conceive of letting Falcon win for whatever dark purpose they may have is simple idiocy. People that suggest that forgot that absolute power corrupts absolutely.  If I mention that putative outcome here is strictly for the sake of the argument.




13 comments:

  1. I still maintain that when "they" eventually grab him, they should cut his right hand as a thief.

    ReplyDelete
  2. regardless if one decides to vote or not, I watched the debate about dollarization, Ricardo Hausmann's stance on not dollarizing makes sense as in that we need to first figure out a way to get out of the crisis. allowing to have ones own currency gives the government more tools to help jumpstart the economy, i do understand Steve Hanke's statement, his theory is just dollarize, and sure it will be bumpy but things will come into order and foreign investments will be coming in. at any rate, anything not chavista or chavista light would be the only path to truly get out of this mess.

    however those who dont vote, whats the game plan here? im not a fan of Falcon, but seems like even if he gets elected he would still have this nacional assemblea constiuyent to deal with, so how does that change anything? i hate not voting, but makes sense here, at the end it really doesnt change anything.

    at any rate, i believe the steps are as follows, election occurs on may 20th, and US begins the process of sanctioning venezuelan oil. that will be the start of something big in how that will affect the current government. cant sell to USA, means significantly less dollars in venezuela, imagine what inflation will look like then.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Daniel Chan I think the consensus is that Falcon is with the regime just a 2nd option. A bad one in that it would set back sanctions if elected until proven he is one of them.
    As for dollarization I would think you would open up to the USD and run your own currency. Much like many S American countries. Not all 1 or the other. Then you open up to the world for help who will accept and massive investment will come in resource industries. Good jobs and improved conditions would happen quickly. Issue is it is unlikely Venezuela will own its resources or dig itself out of debt for 100 to 200 years.

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  4. Venezuela is open to U.S. investment Ash, and to investment from any other country....it's just that no one will invest there, for obvious reasons...the reality is massive disinvestment, companies closing up, the latest is Kellogs, the breakfast cereal people.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Yes tannin,what I mean is that with a true democratically elected government, that will open up to the world. Given Venezuela's vast resources investment will come quick and positive changes will be fast.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Tom in Oklahoma9:51 PM

    Daniel, I was never a fan of Falcon Crest but I will admit that I did watch Dallas! Lol.
    As far as the upcoming "election" goes, I have never seen such a fraud carried out openly in my whole life.(aside from a few local races here in the states)
    I am not a citizen of your country and have no voting rights there but if I were a citizen I would be catching up on a good book or watching a good movie or something like that. What would be the point of trying to choose between a horrible candidate and an even more horrible candidate. There is not a nickel's worth of difference between the two in my opinion. And a vote for either one will make zero difference in the calamity that has befallen your country. I hope and pray that real change will come from somewhere but it won't be from this "election".

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  7. Pfffft.....this whole argument to vote..I'm finished with itm.....what will happen surely as I write another shitty post...Maduro wins...dissolve AN.."of course they arrest all dissent..proclaim a new constitution..and THE ANC ALL POWERFUL..this shit is written in stone...and there is nothing that will stop it.
    Saying all that...Rubio has Trumps ear..I hate to say this....but there mite be a real chance of intervention...its got that feeling now.....Venezuela a threat to America...Trump may find the justification

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  8. yes I realize at the end of the day, Falcon is just the guy who the government allowed to run, because he isnt going to send the current folks in power to jail. however, its a known fact that if falcon won the ANC will still exhorts its power and Falcon wouldnt be able to do too much anyways. alas at this point, its a really bad response, but maybe the people that live in venezuela need to continuing living in this pain until they finally realize free stuff does not equal better life. as for @tannin, venezuela is open for investments, but at the dicom rate, which is why they keep trying to shut down any method of buying bolivares that are not through their sources. so there is no incentive for any foreign companies to invest if they cannot obtain the most optimal price for their dollars. im sure if there was a free flow of currency exchange, there may be some investments flowing through the country, but with their lack of protection of private property makes that risk not worth the investment.

    ReplyDelete
  9. As far as I can see the Helicoide prisoner rebellion was allowed to happen by the regime to drive a stake through Maduro and facilitate Falcon's win. You guys really need to have your thoughts organized and start making sure Barboza isn't part of Raul's plan. If Barboza swears Falcón as president the regime will get a breather...and will continue allowing the Castros to syphon cash. A few months ago in a private meeting Cuba's foreign minister bragged that oil prices would rise, and that Venezuela would never escape from their grasp. You REALLY have to have a response ready and stop Barboza.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Tom in Oklahoma2:57 PM

    I wonder how long after the "election" will it take for Maduro to start setting up re-education camps for those that just don't yet understand the blessings of socialism that are being bestowed on them? I am sure all schools will be required to adhere to a strict curriculum that teaches the benefit of being subjugated under communist rule.

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  11. Anonymous6:12 PM

    Does he live in this beautiful house? Where is it?
    Mike E.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tom in Oklahoma6:21 PM

      Mike...the pictured house is from the old TV show"Falconcrest"

      Delete
    2. Tom in Oklahoma6:27 PM

      The house is located at Spring Mountain Vineyards in Napa Valley, California.

      Delete

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