Saturday, June 16, 2018

A way out for Venezuela: a peaceful way out for a dictatorship?

Speculating how this nightmare will end is just that, speculation. The more likely exit will be a surprise, a never seen move.  Remember that this is XXI century socialism turned into XXI century dictatorship in spite of Twitter, Facebook and what not. It will be followed by either a XXI century totalitarian state, a civil war (Syria?) or XXI century new democracy (Tunisia?).

That XXI adjective is more relevant than what you think.


For example there are jackasses that question that this is a dictatorship just because I can still publish my blog. They fail (or refuse, even worse) to understand that my voice is irrelevant for the regime. They can jail me whenever they want. They'll do with me whatever they want whenever they fucking please. Of course, I am on the bottom of the list since I write in English but let's face it, there has been more than one twitter that sent its author to jail. That is what characterizes a XXI century dictatorship, that the population has no recourse, that no matter what yo do, what you protest, what you write it will have absolutely no effect on those who oppress us. You can even leave the country. The system is so well entrenched, so hopeless that contrary to past totalitarian states a certain amount of dissent is allowed so that some idiots can still call this an authoritarian democracy or something of the sort. Putin, Maduro, Erdogan are not dictators because, well, once upon a time they were elected and you can still write graffiti in the walls without risking death penalty. But dictators they are.

To complicate matters there is a deep crisis in Venezuela matched only in direness to what we can see in the Middle East, least the bombs.  Dictatorships that manage to bring some level of material satisfaction can eventually be convinced to leave after, say, an election.  Chile is our local example. But dictatorships that created a mess cannot leave in well mannered ways.  I cannot recall an example of that. These dictatorships are either booted by force, inner or outer, or they collapse in civil war.  The XXI century model has already a distinguished pupil, Ortega's Nicaragua (and Bolivia may follow suit if Evo, currently building himself a palace, decides to stay in office and that would be that).  Brazil and Argentina escaped, for the time being, because its Foro leaders thought that a modicum of prosperity and taming of the press would suffice. The Lula that wants to come back into office has none of the civil manners of the Lula I presidency had.  If the PT in its current mood returns to office it will be with a thirst for revenge.

To finish this meditative entry let me add a few parameters to the XXI century dictatorship seen in Venezuela, and now in Nicaragua.  The regime started by corrupting all sorts of people, in particular military officials. The goodies received made them happy but also tied their fate to the fate of the regime. Then as the political momentum in favor of Chavez started ebbing paramilitary forces were created, justice made outright partisan so that no body could act against those who abused you, be they public workers, military or paramilitary "colectivos".

The death of Chavez sped up the process. Regarding colectivos they became an army of their own that the official military establishment, turned out fat on corruption, did not dare to stare down. The genuine chavista support of today are all of those people, those who cannot claim anymore "I did not know", whose ill acquired riches and power will be exchanged in the best of cases for a light jail sentence. Denazification is the operating word here as there is no other way to deal with those who have become irremediably morally corrupt, or simply amoral.

You may note that in the list above I have not included the narco state managers. There are certainly intertwined with these groups mentioned above, but they add an extra dimension. For them discussion is not a word, the law of the strongest is the one that prevails.  They will threaten whoever they need to threaten or eliminate inside Venezuela, be they chavista or not. For them a failed state, anarchy, civil war are just means to set accounts between rival gangs.  You are a small mafia gang in a block of Brooklyn or you are a big mafia gang holding a traffic corridor through the country. The mentality is exactly the same.

Is there a way out? Maybe, but it will require resolve inside and outside Venezuela. A lot of resolve.




2 comments:

  1. The part of the world opposed to the regime could get rid of it lead by the USA if they desired. Just set up the legitimate NA as only recognized govt in any neighbouring land. Have it sell oil to allied forces such as to heavily finance a deserting army until it has enough might to take back the gov't. Wouldn't take much as most all current army would desert to the NA offering good pay in USD. Soon all Venezuela would have is is the fat generals who have no fight in them.
    USA is the biggest benefactor to Venezuela not become a super power of the South as it would have under a proper gov't.

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    Replies
    1. The National Assembly isn't United, because parties led by Ramos Allup and Rosales seem to have been subverted by the regime. There's also a logistical bottleneck, because those deputies who leave their families behind will be subject to blackmail. Creating a government in exile is critical, but it would have to be an arrangement by a portion of the National Assembly deputies plus the Supreme Court Justices in exile, and Luisa Ortega. And the opposition is too inmature and has too much baggage to deal with Ortega. Venezuelan politicians are known to lack imagination, and can't play chess.

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