Monday, December 17, 2018

The "10 de enero" myth

Chavismo has a way to turn things into myth even though they have not happened yet. They even do so unaware.  The latest is what will happen on January 10.

Technically, and constitutionally, it is very simple. Maduro "reelection" last May not having been made according to form is not legal. In addition he must be sworn in by the National Assembly on that date for his next term to be legal. Let's pass on all the past technicalities that make Maduro an illegal president all the way to the death of Chavez. Let's just focus on that January 10 dead line.

Maduro will not face the NA because Maduro will not take the faintest risk of being challenged in public.  Even if he were to go, the NA cannot swear him because the NA would commit an illegal action.  Since the high court has voided the NA, Maduro will go and swear in in front of the TSJ, which could only be done in circumstances that make the AN unable to perform these duties. They can, but they are impeached, illegally, by the TSJ. Anyway you turn around "illegal" is written on large script.

But enough discussing how many angels can sit on a pin. This is a rogue regime and swearing in or not, Maduro will continue to be president after January 10.  So we have a few myths developing here.

The governmental myth is that Maduro is a democratically elected president of a very democratic country besieged by obscure interests. Thus his well deserved reelection as a resistance hero, a reelection need that some would even question. We just have to have Maduro at the helm.

The international myth is more subtle. Not willing, at this amazing point, to take stronger sanction against the dictatorship, there is only talk to withdraw ambassadors from Venezuela. Yeah, right.  Already the regime set the tone: if you withdraw your ambassador you must withdraw even the door man at the Embassy. When the threats are at this crass level you can sense that the regime does not like at all that dozens of countries will end their relations with Venezuela.  Thus, withdrawing ambassadors, myth or miss?

Which leads us to the opposition myth. As usual most of the opposition is planning on nothing, content that as soon as the ambassadors leave, if they leave, the Marines will land, if they land.  The problem here is that the opposition itself has become a myth, an unreal being.  Never has this one being so divided, so useless, so clueless. And I mean ALL those who pretend to be leaders, be it from the Maria Corina Machado extreme to the Henri Falcon one.

At this exact moment to make January 10 a memorable date in the recovery of our freedom the opposition should have done the following:

- decant in no more than three groups, the radicals, the neutrals and those willing to negotiate anything with the the regime. That way the international opinion could chose one of these groups to help. Right now from Chile's president to OAS secretary many have said that the divided opposition cannot be helped, that a single message is needed for help to be effective.

- have made clearly the case for the illegality of Maduro's swearing in. There may not be any opposition newspaper left in print, there may be very few private radio stations where real news still manage to circulate, but there is still Tweeter and Facebook.

- a functional crisis group should have been installed including a significant portion of the opposition working on a set of actions.

- the first actions should have already been announced.  These should be a preparation for something like a general strike on January 10, or at the very least a massive set of protests all across Caracas and the country to make traffic impossible. Yes, there are the evil murderous Nazional Guard, but the more and fast rallies you have, the faster you can lift them and leave the Nazional Guard blocking the streets.  In short, the opposition should work at mobilizing the nation's discontent so that the WHOLE country acts on January 10. We are not talking revolution here, we are talking crashing the Maduro's show, making it meaningful for foreign countries to help us.

But as usual the opposition gurus are taking the path of least resistance. People that should know better suggest that the opposition should recognize Maduro in exchange of naming according to the constitution the other powers of the country. Right...  As if Maduro would allow these people to work as if nothing, as if the Constitutional Assembly will not publish anytime soon a new constitution to void all the "concessions" Maduro made to get its legality.

But even these nincompoopy approaches have a merit: they propose something. Most oppo pols propose nothing at all.

When I told you that the Venezuelan opposition has become a real myth.....


  1. Maduro risks having ambassadors removed because he isnt recognized, which is a bit different from breaking relations. I believe it's legal for say the US to state it doesn't recognize Maduro, and ALSO to refuse abandoning its embassy, because Maduro isn't recognized, and therefore he lacks the authority to break relations and order that embassies be vacated. Should he take action against the embassy it would be considered an act of war, and the US president isn't Jimmy Carter. What Latinamerican nations other than Colombia and Brazil do is irrelevant. Those cockroaches have been kissing Castroite butt for six decades, so I expect the same spinelessness and cowardice they have always exhibited. The question in my mind is whether the "Bravo Pueblo" has the testicles needed to create a government in exile which takes over Citgo and bank accounts, arm a few thousand men and take Zulia. I'm afraid Castro chose well, because Venezuela is both rich and its population is as tame as any I've ever seen. So after january 10 we'll see if from 30 million venezuelans, and 3 million in exile, there's leadership and a few thousand volunteers ready to do what has to be done.

  2. Yeah, unfortunately, it is a lost cause at the moment. You have Trump who is a closet patsy to Putin, you have Russia and China in control of Venezuela and since Trump is Putin's lackey by default Russia and China are in control of the world and are wreaking havoc throughout it. The only hope is ultimately to get a new leader ideally old school Republic in control of the USA and set some things right in the world.

    1. Rosario5:17 PM

      To keep repeating that Trump is a closet patsy of Putin is so idiotic that makes everything you say worthless.

    2. Rosario, Trump says and does what Putin tells him to do. If you follow Russian disinformation you can tell in advance what Trump will say.

    3. Rosario, and even "his" economic policy is *designed* to destroy US economy and to enrich Russia economy:

    4. Rosario, "his" statements on NATO are exactly what Soviet Union wanted him to say:

    5. Someone don't waste your time with a Trump follower, his eyes and ears are not open to logic.

    6. Boludo Tejano11:14 PM

      Does Socialism/Marxism have anything to do with the collapse of Venezuela's economy?

    7. I don't know that strong socialism or Marxism is good for any economy. Capitalism needs to be able to thrive in order for economic growth. Now the question is was socialism/Marxism used in Venezuela as a cover to hijack the gov't? I would say yes, but socialism implies equalism and this gov't clearly was out to destroy all sense of economy all future of the people and steal all it could. I wouldn't necessarily say it was socialism but would definitely say they used it to blind the ignorant public.

  3. I think that Venezuela problems ( to put it mildly) are for Venezuelan to solve. From your article Daniel, it looks like both Venezuelan and outsiders (USA, Colombia, etc) are resolving these problems (!!!!) once again the Cuban way, in a more disorderly fashion however. The net beneficiary is also once again Southern Florida where pan de jamon and carne en vara are out of this world this season. I must add that the Venezuelan diaspora in Southern Florida raises by several notches the quality of Latino immigration in the region.

    1. Huummmm....
      I guess what I meant is that clearly we are not able to solve the problems from inside. At the very least it seems that a shove from outside is a necessity.

  4. Charly one could look at it another way. Outside interference is what has created the mess in Venezuela. But if the USA and Colombia or Brazil interfere it will not be because they are trying to help out the people in Venezuela, it will be because it benefits them.

    1. Except for China and Russia who have bought up Venezuela paying barging prices with most of the money going to dark corruption. Yes, the US, Brazil, perhaps Colombia or an OAS coalition force could end it but, the cost of rebuilding and feeding the population would be far beyond any gain. Just look at the cost of going into Irak, Afganistan and other failed states. Pottery Shed Rules Apply, You Break it, You Bought It! Plus, for all we know, Russia and China could now own all the mineral rights in Venezuela?

  5. Venezuela has become a dwarf star, incapable of going supernova, it is will just burn out very slowly. The people got used to the absurd and has no means or momentum to escape the situation.


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