Technically, and constitutionally, it is very simple. Maduro "reelection" last May not having been made according to form is not legal. In addition he must be sworn in by the National Assembly on that date for his next term to be legal. Let's pass on all the past technicalities that make Maduro an illegal president all the way to the death of Chavez. Let's just focus on that January 10 dead line.
Maduro will not face the NA because Maduro will not take the faintest risk of being challenged in public. Even if he were to go, the NA cannot swear him because the NA would commit an illegal action. Since the high court has voided the NA, Maduro will go and swear in in front of the TSJ, which could only be done in circumstances that make the AN unable to perform these duties. They can, but they are impeached, illegally, by the TSJ. Anyway you turn around "illegal" is written on large script.
But enough discussing how many angels can sit on a pin. This is a rogue regime and swearing in or not, Maduro will continue to be president after January 10. So we have a few myths developing here.
The governmental myth is that Maduro is a democratically elected president of a very democratic country besieged by obscure interests. Thus his well deserved reelection as a resistance hero, a reelection need that some would even question. We just have to have Maduro at the helm.
The international myth is more subtle. Not willing, at this amazing point, to take stronger sanction against the dictatorship, there is only talk to withdraw ambassadors from Venezuela. Yeah, right. Already the regime set the tone: if you withdraw your ambassador you must withdraw even the door man at the Embassy. When the threats are at this crass level you can sense that the regime does not like at all that dozens of countries will end their relations with Venezuela. Thus, withdrawing ambassadors, myth or miss?
Which leads us to the opposition myth. As usual most of the opposition is planning on nothing, content that as soon as the ambassadors leave, if they leave, the Marines will land, if they land. The problem here is that the opposition itself has become a myth, an unreal being. Never has this one being so divided, so useless, so clueless. And I mean ALL those who pretend to be leaders, be it from the Maria Corina Machado extreme to the Henri Falcon one.
At this exact moment to make January 10 a memorable date in the recovery of our freedom the opposition should have done the following:
- decant in no more than three groups, the radicals, the neutrals and those willing to negotiate anything with the the regime. That way the international opinion could chose one of these groups to help. Right now from Chile's president to OAS secretary many have said that the divided opposition cannot be helped, that a single message is needed for help to be effective.
- have made clearly the case for the illegality of Maduro's swearing in. There may not be any opposition newspaper left in print, there may be very few private radio stations where real news still manage to circulate, but there is still Tweeter and Facebook.
- a functional crisis group should have been installed including a significant portion of the opposition working on a set of actions.
- the first actions should have already been announced. These should be a preparation for something like a general strike on January 10, or at the very least a massive set of protests all across Caracas and the country to make traffic impossible. Yes, there are the evil murderous Nazional Guard, but the more and fast rallies you have, the faster you can lift them and leave the Nazional Guard blocking the streets. In short, the opposition should work at mobilizing the nation's discontent so that the WHOLE country acts on January 10. We are not talking revolution here, we are talking crashing the Maduro's show, making it meaningful for foreign countries to help us.
But as usual the opposition gurus are taking the path of least resistance. People that should know better suggest that the opposition should recognize Maduro in exchange of naming according to the constitution the other powers of the country. Right... As if Maduro would allow these people to work as if nothing, as if the Constitutional Assembly will not publish anytime soon a new constitution to void all the "concessions" Maduro made to get its legality.
But even these nincompoopy approaches have a merit: they propose something. Most oppo pols propose nothing at all.
When I told you that the Venezuelan opposition has become a real myth.....