2019 in review part 4: a suicidal opposition?

The opposition to the regime started on solid footing in January when Guaido was elected chair of the National Assembly as this one declared null the "election" of Maduro a few months before.  Unfortunately the high hopes of early 2019 have been dashed and many are trying to put all the blame on Guaido. This is unfair for many reasons.

2019 in review part 2: digging its heels

January was loaded with expectations: the fraudulent "reelection" of Maduro months earlier was not recognized by over 50 democratic countries.  Maduro was left to rely on Russia, China and a few low weight accomplices.  The National Assembly elected a new chair, Juan Guaido, young and promising who became an instant hit. Avenues filled again with people protesting against the regime while this one seemed unable to put up any significant show of popular support.

A year has passed and not only Maduro is still in office but there are rumors that among the 50+ countries opposing him some would be willing to sit down and make some deal.

What happened?

The Barbados Pass/Fail

It has been two months since I last wrote. My health concerns were certainly a distraction, but discussing the miasma of Venezuelan politics was certainly not encouraging.

However we reached this week a seminal point of sorts: it is the regime this time that walked away from the negotiation table. Who gains? Who lost?

Tug of war

I was distracted with other issues, so let's have a quick catch up, in what seems to be now the usual mode, item by item.

What is the legal status of Juan Guaido?

Venezuela as moral bankruptcy of the left: seeking "dialogue" at this point is supporting Maduro

Before I go into this I need to clarify the meaning of some terms least people go all bonkers. What I call left is strictly people that are to the left of European social democrats or US liberals.  Myself I politically gravitate between social democrat /liberal and center. Though if the candidate is appealing I have crossed the line more than once.  One of my griefs against Reagan is that he turned decisively Liberal US into a dirty word. Liberals were the heirs of a great tradition of free enterprise and social responsibility; now rednecks toss around Liberal in the same sentence as Commie. And that has been so damaging...

The reason of this rant type of entry is that suddenly out of nowhere some people are proposing that the regime and the Venezuelan opposition "dialogue" again.  At this point in time offering that as the lone idea to bring peace to Venezuela is to mock's people's intelligence. And worse, it does give Maduro some time to recoup and charge again.

23 de enero, bis repetita placent

Between 2003 and, say, 2015 I wrote furiously this blog denouncing the dictatorship that Chavez wanted to, started to, definitely installed in Venezuela.  And now, irony, when I should be typing furiously what seems to be the end of the regime I have got to drag myself in front of the computer.  I am not the same person.

Our next president?

Yet, since I plan to attend tomorrow's opposition rallies I shall write a short summary of the past 2 weeks to help people cut through the contradictory news; and sometimes misleading news from well intentionned journalists who are, I am afraid, coming a tad late to the party.  Last night for example the French TV called Guaidó "extreme right" which goes on to tell you to watch out for what you read.  This blog is, of course, perfect.

And so we reached January 13, to everybody's great surprise

What has been remarkable in the last three days is what DID NOT happen. What happened was not necessarily meaningful, nor did it solve any problem but it contributed to set the base line for the next weeks, until January 23 unless the regime cracks down before. (1)

What happened was that Maduro did swear in at the high court (TSJ). As if his word had more value than Venezuelan currency.

And in the next two days the opposition at the National Assembly started the process to declare itself as the new government since Maduro election is not recognized and he did not swear in as the constitution demands. So he does not exist and any paper with his signature as of January 10 is worthless.

January 9, the eve of "10 de enero"

The fateful day is in a couple of hours.  A brief review of where we stand at. In no particular order.  But first, the way the main drag of Carcas was covered today (and I presume other venues).

Toda la avenida Bolívar de Caracas forrada con pendones de “Yo Soy Presidente”, dándose poder de algo que no es.

Al menos, yo no lo reconozco ni reconoceré #9Ene #YoSoyPresidente pic.twitter.com/P2DXL1nme7

— Luis Gonzalo Pérez (@luisgonzaloprz) 9 de enero de 2019

The banner reads "I am president" with an hashtag, you know, to make it more contemporary.

Reviewing the "10 de enero" myth: the end of the road

Three weeks ago I was commenting how dire the situation was as the fateful date of January 10 approached. Today things are clearing up and we may get surprises.

First, a brief recall.
1) An illegally elected Maduro on May 20 needs to be sworn in by the National Assembly.
2) the NA powers have been voided by the high court TSJ in an illegal way. No law passed by the NA is valid. Yet the swearing in itself is not a law and thus there is no way to annul the NA on that prerogative. 3) Maduro will not go to the AN for swearing in because not only he cannot do so legally but he cannot appear to be caving in to the NA legitimate demands.  You could talk about the Mexico wall deadlock, but you ain't seen no nothing compared to the deadlock here since 2015.
4) The NA cannot compromise with Maduro because his election was outside of the constitutional requirements, both in date and organization. If a fraction of the opposition would break away to make a new majority pact with chavismo representatives (absent since late 2015) it still would be illegal and that portion of the opposition would have no chance ever to get votes in future elections.

The "10 de enero" myth

Chavismo has a way to turn things into myth even though they have not happened yet. They even do so unaware.  The latest is what will happen on January 10.

Technically, and constitutionally, it is very simple. Maduro "reelection" last May not having been made according to form is not legal. In addition he must be sworn in by the National Assembly on that date for his next term to be legal. Let's pass on all the past technicalities that make Maduro an illegal president all the way to the death of Chavez. Let's just focus on that January 10 dead line.