There are so many things to write about that as usual I freeze. That is, until I come across something that summarizes the situation so well that it goes beyond belief.
It was Jorge Rodriguez turn to get insulted in public while in Mexico city. Let me see if I can have the non-Venezuelan reader understand how momentous that silly video is. And it is momentous, trust me.
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Monday, August 21, 2017
Friday, August 19, 2005
Two Tough contests
Note of the author: because this is an article about a contest, I do not want to give away the names of the winners too early in the text. For this reason, most of the references that I traditionally include as hyperlinks are cited at the end.
The other day I was discussing with some Venezuelan friends about who they thought was the worst figure in the Chavista government. I am aware that the term “worst” is a bit subjective. It depends on which measure is used to assess “badness”. One could interpret it as the one figure that has been most damageable to the country, or the most incompetent, or the one that uses his/her power in the worst way. So there are many definitions to pick the “worst” figure but, regardless of the definition, the contest is indeed quite tough because the competition is very stiff.
The Chavista government is indeed rich in figures that are incompetent, arrogant and cynic, that have damaged the country permanently and that are unusually vulgar, even for the low standards of Venezuelan politicians.
Attorney general Isaias Rodriguez and Vice-president Jose Vicente Rangel were really popular among my friends, and I must admit that they are hard to beat. And who could be indifferent to the charms of Assembly members Tascon or Iris Varela (1) (R5)? But, after some thoughts, I picked two different candidates.
I picked them because of their arrogance, striking even among all the other Chavistas. They systematically forget what it means to be a mayor representative of a democratic institution. They perform their role as if the institutions they are in were their own, with total disregard for anybody that is not identified with their party and their views. But, among all, I picked them because they have two key positions that are the foundation of any democratic system and their lousy job as keepers of the democratic way will make an impact for generations to come.
My first runner up is Chavez’s major puppet in Congress. I am aware of being a bit harsh because everybody in the current government is Chavez’s puppet, but this is a very important puppet. My first runner up uses the thin government majority in congress shamelessly; he does not even understand what it means to respect the voice of the minority, even within his own party. When a law has to be passed because Chavez wants it badly, like the Civil code modification or the Central Bank law, he asks for a blind vote and does not even admit a discussion within his own caucus, let alone the representatives of the very important opposition (R1,R2,R5).
So, my first runner up is definitely Nicolas Maduro, the president of the National Assembly.
My winner is, in my opinion, the most intelligent Chavista in the current government. One may argue that that is not a very difficult achievement given the kind of government figures that are running the country. As we say in
He transformed a vibrant democracy where people believed in their system into the twilight zone we have now in which nobody has any trust in the voting process. A twilight zone in which people see the abstention as the only way to protest what is happening in
Why do I say he is the most intelligent Chavista of the bunch? Because his strategy is brilliant:
1.- Stand in your position and forget the impartiality that the keeper of the most sacred democratic process should have.
2.-Disregard complaints and public opinion to discourage opposition voters.
3.-When necessary, accuse the opponents of the same ailments of which you are being accused.
So, it is with great amazement that I recently read that he claimed that Venezuela’s current electronic voting system was the most secure of the world and attacked the “cheating” of previous governments that used manual counting (R3,R4). That is brilliant because Sumate is asking for manual counting to insure that Venezuelans trust their system again.
Sumate is his pain in the neck (R6,R7,R8, R9). So by attacking manual counting as a cheating system, he not only wants to pass as the champion of transparency but also attacks Sumate in its quest for clean elections.
So, my winner is definitely my “tocayo” (4) Jorge Rodriguez, president of the CNE.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
At the end of this discussion, I asked another question to my friends.
“And, what is the Chavista that you like the most?”
They looked at me as if I were an extraterrestrial. It was the classical question that could only had one answer. In fact, they unanimously said
“none!”
I insisted and they kept telling me that there was absolutely no one in the government they could agree with or think good about. I do not accept defeat too easily, so, in the end I changed the question:
“OK, maybe I should not be asking about the chavista that you like the most but rather about the one that you hate the least… ”
They thought very hard about it and one of them, the most virulent anti-Chavez of the group, jokingly came up with this very surprising answer:
“Chavez!”
Even as a joke, I jumped from my seat in disbelief. He added:
« Why not? Remember, Jorge, En el pais de los ciegos, el tuerto es rey »
They meant that the Chavistas are so bad, that, ironically, Chavez himself might be the best of the bunch.
I have been thinking about his answer for a while and found out that I profoundly disagree with my friend. This has been exactly the strategy Chavez has been having lately, his government is so bad that, for his followers, he is a saint that has to put up with those very inefficient ministers. And, for his enemies, his government is so bad that he stands out as the best chavista.
Sorry Hugo, but I am not fooled that easily. You are bad, really bad. I am even tempted to move down Jorge Rodriguez to second place but I want to remain loyal to my original understanding of the term “chavista figures” (that excludes Chavez).
Call me a purist. I told you noneles that this was a difficult contest.
And as for Jorge Rodriguez…
My dear tocayo, in my mind, you are second only to Chavez himself. And, by the way, all my condolences for the ugly tricks that the “mano peluda” (hairy hand) (5) was doing with your book. But you know, tocayo, that will teach you a very important lesson :
When you are the author of a book, YOU SHOULD READ IT FIRST!
(1) Iris Varela is known for some amazing declarations like the infamous “porque nos da la gana” referring to the fact that even with a very thin majority in Congress, the Chavistas will pass any law, no matter how absurd or unconstitutional, “porque les da la gana” (because they feel like it).
(2) In colloquial Venezuelan Spanish a “Tuerto” is a person that lost one eye.
(3) Interestingly, Jorge Rodriguez is a psychiatrist.
(4) Also in colloquial Venezuelan Spanish, people with the same given name are called “tocayos”.
(5) In
Articles and references:
(R3)“Rodriguez: no hay sistema electoral tan seguro como el de Venezuela”
(R4)“Jorge Rodriguez: credibilidad del CNE aumenta 6%”
(R5)Tal Cual 22/6/05 page 3 “Porque nos da la gana”
(R6)« Estamos haciendo algo importante con Sumate : la estamos ignorando »
(R7)« Sumate introdujo ante el TSJ recurso contencioso electoral contra el CNE »
(R8)« El 7 de Agosto no habra elecciones limpias »
(R9)« CNE confia en decision favorable en Sala Electoral » El Nacional, July 22, 2005, A1.
(R10) “CNE : libro sobre RR tiene erroes, omisiones, mentiras y tergiversaciones”
Saturday, September 25, 2004
JORGE RODRIGUEZ, THE SHRINK IN NEED OF A SHRINK
(or a lawyer, as the case might be)
The Venezuelan fraud issue is certainly not going to go away like that, wishful thinking and all. The Electoral Board, CNE, seems to get a little bit tired of these talks. Well, one of them anyway.
Let's revisit quickly the CNE composition. Two, Zamora and Mejias, are in the "opposition", meaning that they consistently vote in the 2 to 3 partiality. Their opposition is simply not accepting the unacceptable, amply documented by the OAS as recently as yesterday, again, by the Brazilian ambassador that was supposed to defend Chavez a few days ago. In his report Pecly Moreira points out that it would have been better for the CNE to collaborate a little bit more. In "diplomatese" this barb is for the majority of 3. Ah! And supreme insult, he suggested that the electoral system should be brought "up to date". This is not going to go down well for the defenders of the "best" constitution in the world and the "best and most honest" electoral system in Venezuelan history.
On the 3 side of the 3 to 2 chasm, we have one that is a confessed chavista hack. Battaglini has no qualms presenting the most outrageous ideas and opinions, and wastes no time defending them. He also does not pretend to be more than what he is, an apparatchick. The supposed president, Carrasquero, looks more and more like the little provincial lawyer that made good and who is waiting for his award, a 12 year sinecure in the High Court. Little people both.
Which bring to the real head of the CNE, and thus the one really responsible for all that the CNE has done, legally or illegally. Rodriguez is a psychiatrist whose father was a political victim a few decades ago. Thus he has always been opposed to whoever was in office before Chavez. This rather not promising qualification to become a fair electoral arbiter is not helped by the lust for the limelight that Rodriguez seems to have acquired since his nomination one year ago. Quite often he has come to the cameras only to dig his hole deeper, such as when he was furious at Carter sneaking at night in the CNE while Rodriguez minions were up to no good. This attitude (should we call it a narcissistic?) is not improving.
It seems that poor Rodriguez could not take it anymore and, very unprofessionally, went to TV yesterday, no less than as a "cadena", to a strange mix of complaint, defense and attack. As a school marm he lectured the country that there was no fraud and that if talk of that persisted he would sue those who dared. Of course, he did not bother responding clearly to the very serious allegations of the report submitted to the CNE and promptly rejected without serious review (a few hours could not be enough to evaluate seriously pages and pages, but when has the CNE bothered with hard data and dire reality!).
The least one can say after such a TV presentation is to wonder what kind of shrink Rodriguez was and how his patients left his office... But one thing that we need not to bother with is Rodriguez legal mind: a lawyer he ain't!
A few minutes ago Tulio Alvarez gave Rodriguez his due. Not only Alvarez quickly and precisely deconstructed all the braggadocio of Rodriguez, reducing it to hot air, but he went further. First, how could Rodriguez try to debunk the legal complexities of the Alvarez report when he not only rejected it out right but apparently did not even read it (Rodriguez addressed stuff that was not even in the report but somewhere else!). Further Alvarez warned that the 2 CNE directors that are always in the minority should reconsider their stay in the board: their constant opposition actually is validating all the shenanigans going inside the CNE. I have to agree with Alvarez there, Zamora and Mejias should have realized by now that they are the excuse behind which all the fraudulent actions take place. I even wonder what kind of access they have to what is going on. Apparently the CNE board meetings are rarer and rarer, letting all sorts of subcomissions doing the work and the reunions are quick meetings where the 3/2 majority decides stuff without debate. Indeed, what do Zamora and Mejias bring?
And to end with a flourish Alvarez told Rodriguez that he was going to have to put a lot of people in jail as the fraud talk was not going to go away, even with his more than unbecoming verbal violence.
Indeed, there are few people as discredited as Rodriguez in Venezuela. Even chavistas will not go and defend him, or will do so the way they would defend a well paid mercenary. His carving for the limelight has made Rodriguez the lighting rod of the fraud accusations and the country places on him the burden of the fraud if there was fraud, whichever side there are.
This blogger thinks, by the way, that Rodriguez is the big artifice of all this mess. EVEN IF there was no fraud on August 15, Rodriguez has done all what he could possibly do to favor the chavista side and thus compromise the result. Even if we remove the possible fraud on August 15 there are enough elements to put Rodriguez under investigation, that is, in a normal country. These elements come from the day where he called people that signed for the referendum crooks (only to be proven wrong in May 2004) to deciding on his own to buy all sorts of electoral devices without fair bidding or technical studies in which all parts would be witnesses.
Rodriguez is wrong, it is not the opposition that claims fraud that should be sued, it is himself that should get sued for not doing his job properly, from blocking justice, from abusing his power, and a few more things. The crimes are committed by those who can commit them, and certainly Rodriguez was in much better position than the opposition to commit electoral crimes.
And with these lines, this blogger puts himself on the list of people to get sued. That is OK, I am sure that I will have very intellectually stimulating discussions in jail with Tulio Alvarez and the team investigating fraud. Anything but the couch of Rodriguez!
(or a lawyer, as the case might be)
The Venezuelan fraud issue is certainly not going to go away like that, wishful thinking and all. The Electoral Board, CNE, seems to get a little bit tired of these talks. Well, one of them anyway.
Let's revisit quickly the CNE composition. Two, Zamora and Mejias, are in the "opposition", meaning that they consistently vote in the 2 to 3 partiality. Their opposition is simply not accepting the unacceptable, amply documented by the OAS as recently as yesterday, again, by the Brazilian ambassador that was supposed to defend Chavez a few days ago. In his report Pecly Moreira points out that it would have been better for the CNE to collaborate a little bit more. In "diplomatese" this barb is for the majority of 3. Ah! And supreme insult, he suggested that the electoral system should be brought "up to date". This is not going to go down well for the defenders of the "best" constitution in the world and the "best and most honest" electoral system in Venezuelan history.
On the 3 side of the 3 to 2 chasm, we have one that is a confessed chavista hack. Battaglini has no qualms presenting the most outrageous ideas and opinions, and wastes no time defending them. He also does not pretend to be more than what he is, an apparatchick. The supposed president, Carrasquero, looks more and more like the little provincial lawyer that made good and who is waiting for his award, a 12 year sinecure in the High Court. Little people both.
Which bring to the real head of the CNE, and thus the one really responsible for all that the CNE has done, legally or illegally. Rodriguez is a psychiatrist whose father was a political victim a few decades ago. Thus he has always been opposed to whoever was in office before Chavez. This rather not promising qualification to become a fair electoral arbiter is not helped by the lust for the limelight that Rodriguez seems to have acquired since his nomination one year ago. Quite often he has come to the cameras only to dig his hole deeper, such as when he was furious at Carter sneaking at night in the CNE while Rodriguez minions were up to no good. This attitude (should we call it a narcissistic?) is not improving.
It seems that poor Rodriguez could not take it anymore and, very unprofessionally, went to TV yesterday, no less than as a "cadena", to a strange mix of complaint, defense and attack. As a school marm he lectured the country that there was no fraud and that if talk of that persisted he would sue those who dared. Of course, he did not bother responding clearly to the very serious allegations of the report submitted to the CNE and promptly rejected without serious review (a few hours could not be enough to evaluate seriously pages and pages, but when has the CNE bothered with hard data and dire reality!).
The least one can say after such a TV presentation is to wonder what kind of shrink Rodriguez was and how his patients left his office... But one thing that we need not to bother with is Rodriguez legal mind: a lawyer he ain't!
A few minutes ago Tulio Alvarez gave Rodriguez his due. Not only Alvarez quickly and precisely deconstructed all the braggadocio of Rodriguez, reducing it to hot air, but he went further. First, how could Rodriguez try to debunk the legal complexities of the Alvarez report when he not only rejected it out right but apparently did not even read it (Rodriguez addressed stuff that was not even in the report but somewhere else!). Further Alvarez warned that the 2 CNE directors that are always in the minority should reconsider their stay in the board: their constant opposition actually is validating all the shenanigans going inside the CNE. I have to agree with Alvarez there, Zamora and Mejias should have realized by now that they are the excuse behind which all the fraudulent actions take place. I even wonder what kind of access they have to what is going on. Apparently the CNE board meetings are rarer and rarer, letting all sorts of subcomissions doing the work and the reunions are quick meetings where the 3/2 majority decides stuff without debate. Indeed, what do Zamora and Mejias bring?
And to end with a flourish Alvarez told Rodriguez that he was going to have to put a lot of people in jail as the fraud talk was not going to go away, even with his more than unbecoming verbal violence.
Indeed, there are few people as discredited as Rodriguez in Venezuela. Even chavistas will not go and defend him, or will do so the way they would defend a well paid mercenary. His carving for the limelight has made Rodriguez the lighting rod of the fraud accusations and the country places on him the burden of the fraud if there was fraud, whichever side there are.
This blogger thinks, by the way, that Rodriguez is the big artifice of all this mess. EVEN IF there was no fraud on August 15, Rodriguez has done all what he could possibly do to favor the chavista side and thus compromise the result. Even if we remove the possible fraud on August 15 there are enough elements to put Rodriguez under investigation, that is, in a normal country. These elements come from the day where he called people that signed for the referendum crooks (only to be proven wrong in May 2004) to deciding on his own to buy all sorts of electoral devices without fair bidding or technical studies in which all parts would be witnesses.
Rodriguez is wrong, it is not the opposition that claims fraud that should be sued, it is himself that should get sued for not doing his job properly, from blocking justice, from abusing his power, and a few more things. The crimes are committed by those who can commit them, and certainly Rodriguez was in much better position than the opposition to commit electoral crimes.
And with these lines, this blogger puts himself on the list of people to get sued. That is OK, I am sure that I will have very intellectually stimulating discussions in jail with Tulio Alvarez and the team investigating fraud. Anything but the couch of Rodriguez!
Wednesday, August 16, 2006
Some CNE gossip
Sometimes we bloggers do get some interesting bits of gossip. I do not know how true is the one below but it sounds so right, so in character that I decided to put it up. Without naming the source of course.
Jorge Rodriguez, ex CNE director, used to be a nobody, a colorless metro worker under Caldera, in charge of organizing the subsidized student fare tickets. Well, now, after a very few years of glorious Bolibanana Revolution he lives in a luxury condo, in one of those exclusive upper Altamira towers which have only one apartment per floor. His is about 500+ square meters. In Altamira this is probably worth at least one million bucks. Not bad, no?
Well, apparently some one's relative with significant cash at hand is living there and that person has a hired chauffeur. During day time this brave soul hangs around in the garage waiting for an order to drive Ms. Daisy somewhere. He also looks "from the people". Well, this chauffeur has seen several time Tibisay Lucena comes discreetly in a smoked glass vehicle and check around before getting off the car and go and visit Jorge Rodriguez. Just as some cheapo mistress. Apparently the look of the chauffeur is safe enough (chavista enough?) for her to get out of the car and go up. But the chauffeur talked to Ms. Daisy and she talked to my source.
No real crime of course, but an amusing observation: Jorge Rodriguez still influences the CNE and Tibisay does not want people to know. Silly, because we all know that she must call him often to receive instructions. Heck, even Humala received instructions from Rodriguez. Anyway, what is it that is so important that she cannot say it over the phone? Inquiring minds want to know.
Jorge Rodriguez, ex CNE director, used to be a nobody, a colorless metro worker under Caldera, in charge of organizing the subsidized student fare tickets. Well, now, after a very few years of glorious Bolibanana Revolution he lives in a luxury condo, in one of those exclusive upper Altamira towers which have only one apartment per floor. His is about 500+ square meters. In Altamira this is probably worth at least one million bucks. Not bad, no?
Well, apparently some one's relative with significant cash at hand is living there and that person has a hired chauffeur. During day time this brave soul hangs around in the garage waiting for an order to drive Ms. Daisy somewhere. He also looks "from the people". Well, this chauffeur has seen several time Tibisay Lucena comes discreetly in a smoked glass vehicle and check around before getting off the car and go and visit Jorge Rodriguez. Just as some cheapo mistress. Apparently the look of the chauffeur is safe enough (chavista enough?) for her to get out of the car and go up. But the chauffeur talked to Ms. Daisy and she talked to my source.
No real crime of course, but an amusing observation: Jorge Rodriguez still influences the CNE and Tibisay does not want people to know. Silly, because we all know that she must call him often to receive instructions. Heck, even Humala received instructions from Rodriguez. Anyway, what is it that is so important that she cannot say it over the phone? Inquiring minds want to know.
Friday, March 24, 2006
Jorge Rodriguez will not "run" for the CNE again
In yet another act of hypocrisy and utter self aggrandizement, Jorge Rodriguez announced a little while ago that the would not ask to be named to the new CNE in preparation.
[Brief break to shed a few crocodile tears, sniff, sniff...]
Let's be serious now, this does not change anything. The way the National Assembly is proceeding to name a new CNE does not allow us to hope for an improvement on that front. That is, the reasons why 50% of Venezuela does not trust the electoral system and are not planning to vote are still there and will not be changed no matter who they put to direct the CNE. In fact, even if by some disconcerting fluke the NA were to put a non or even anti Chavez person to lead the CNE, the result would be that the 50% chavistas would stop trusting the vote, plus a few on the other side not easily swayed by a cosmetic change.
No, the trust in the electoral system is too damaged by simply removing Jorge Rodriguez, no matter what a disgusting character he has come to be. Much, much more is needed.
But the interesting thing of today announcement by Jorgito the shrink is that he showed again that he is in bad need of a shrink himself. The tone of his announcement, the spiteful things he said were telling of his utter moral bankruptcy. It gives pena ajena(1) to read his words of self sufficiency and out of control ego.
And more that I have no stomach to detail.
The only thing that worries me is that he is rumored to become the next Vice President. Oh dear! But he does posses the cynicism of Jose Vicente Rangel, though not his craft.
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
1) pena ajena is used in Venezuela when we want to say that what someone did is so embarrassing that we are actually personally embarrassed for that person.
2) resentido social is how we describe in Venezuela people who hold a grudge against society and seek all their lives redress. It is a social resentment that defies logic, compassion, reconciliation. Chavismo is plagued by such people, just as chavismo is creating a new class of the same people in the opposition ranks.
[Brief break to shed a few crocodile tears, sniff, sniff...]
Let's be serious now, this does not change anything. The way the National Assembly is proceeding to name a new CNE does not allow us to hope for an improvement on that front. That is, the reasons why 50% of Venezuela does not trust the electoral system and are not planning to vote are still there and will not be changed no matter who they put to direct the CNE. In fact, even if by some disconcerting fluke the NA were to put a non or even anti Chavez person to lead the CNE, the result would be that the 50% chavistas would stop trusting the vote, plus a few on the other side not easily swayed by a cosmetic change.
No, the trust in the electoral system is too damaged by simply removing Jorge Rodriguez, no matter what a disgusting character he has come to be. Much, much more is needed.
But the interesting thing of today announcement by Jorgito the shrink is that he showed again that he is in bad need of a shrink himself. The tone of his announcement, the spiteful things he said were telling of his utter moral bankruptcy. It gives pena ajena(1) to read his words of self sufficiency and out of control ego.
“now it will take away the opposition excuses not to run” (as if he were the sole responsible party! The nerve!
“this exercise closes with great satisfaction, we met out goals in spite of adversity, the vilification and the most truant campaign against a public institution without being able to respond”. Well, besides the fact that he is responding with such a statement, he has gained his notorious infamous reputation on all the responses he gave during his contested tenure. But Rodriguez is a resentido social(2) and such people are never satisfied no matter how many opportunity to respond they are provided with.
And more that I have no stomach to detail.
The only thing that worries me is that he is rumored to become the next Vice President. Oh dear! But he does posses the cynicism of Jose Vicente Rangel, though not his craft.
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
1) pena ajena is used in Venezuela when we want to say that what someone did is so embarrassing that we are actually personally embarrassed for that person.
2) resentido social is how we describe in Venezuela people who hold a grudge against society and seek all their lives redress. It is a social resentment that defies logic, compassion, reconciliation. Chavismo is plagued by such people, just as chavismo is creating a new class of the same people in the opposition ranks.
Saturday, March 10, 2007
Would Potemkin be chavista?
Grigori Potemkin was a prime minister of sorts of Catherine the Great Tsarina of all Russias. He
became so as he was her lover, and made sure to feed the Imperial bed once he got tired of the aging tsarina (or she of him, more likely). But not any longer a “favorite” he retained both considerable power and great influence until his death. Yet for all his achievements (though questionable) he is remembered most for the “Potemkin Villages” that may or may not have existed, a very apt irony for the concept they represent. The legend, happily spread by his political enemies, came about when during a visit by Catherine to the new provinces, sailing down the Dnepr, he supposedly made a few fake villages and fake serfs cheering along the river’s bank. This way the Tsarina felt comforted in the belief that her newly conquered territories were indeed being settled and Russianized as God intended.
This tale of what autocracy does to people has come back frequently to my mind. After all in Venezuela we have a despotic Tsarina who wants everyone to love her and who is looked upon
as a new “enlightened despot” by philosophical intellectuals only too happy to cash on her gifts and correspond with her as intellectual peer; we also have different little Potemkines around as there is no one of the stature of Potemkin in Venezuela. Then again Chavez does not have the stature of Catherine either, nor his pseudo-intellectual supporters the stature of the XVII century philosophers. But we can all agree at least on the “despot” part of the story. Thus I thought that as a weekend amiable entertainment I should look at a few of the Potemkin Villages of the Venezuelan pseudo-revolution, true Potemkin villages that is.
The Potemkin money
Let’s start by the most recent invention. Apparently in a stroke of cosmetic genius they have decided to lop off three zeros from the Venezuelan currency, the Bolivar (VEB, Bs.) and call it the “Bolivar Fuerte” (Bs.F.). This will start right now, as early as January 1 2008.
Now, there are many cases in history where it has proven to be necessary for a government to change a strongly devaluated currency into a more manageable, and stable, currency. For example De Gaulle started the conversion of the French Franc into the Nouveau Franc by loping off two zeros. But he also added a fiscal restraint to the country and promoted over a decade of strong economic growth that stabilized that new currency who for all its fault only lost about 25% of its value until it became the Euro (courtesy of the inflationary policies of Mitterrand, by the way). But in both changes, there was a long educational, legal, fiscal process that allowed for a successful change of currency (now the Euro trashes the USD).
We also have some cases where simply the governments decided upon a cosmetic changes when the loaf of bread started coasting more than 1 million. Usually within a few years the loaf of bread cost again a million and a new currency again came up. See Brazil, for example, before the Cardozo Plan finally put some order.
What is going on in Venezuela? The financial Potemkin of the regime, perennial financial minister, is supporting the simple loping off of three zeroes to the currency and noting else. No fiscal restraint. No accounting. No improved investment climate. No nothing. And through an unusual cadena of the Central bank, who left me in a state of stupor, the directory presented the whole thing as the best change since monetary sliced bread. Now, for the record, Giordani is the economy expert who has presided over the devaluation of the Venezuelan currency from a 550 to the USD when Chavez came to office in 1999 to the current 4000+ on the street market value we must put up with these days.
Now in all honesty I would like to believe that Giordani and the combo at the Central Bank could be qualified as modern days Potemkin for selling such a fail sure idea to Chavez. But at least Potemkin knew he was looting the country and faking some of his successes. These guys do not have successes to brag of and do not when know what fakes they are.
Meanwhile, I am taking bets as to when the next money change in Venezuela with an inflation that promises to go above the 20% annual rate for the years to come.
The Potemkin economy
Through 2006 we were treated of tales of Venezuelan economy booming at 10% rates. True on paper. Indeed with sky high oil prices and a governmental willingness to spend more than it was taking in to win (buy?) the presidential election, money was in the streets and the financial situation of the people in general improved (particularly for government people and their associates who started buying hummers, BMW and what not).
But once the election passed we got quite a different story. My
local Central Madeirense since early January has been lacking white sugar routinely. Beef also is frequently lacking and the little bit that comes is barely good enough to make stew or for the dogs (which admittedly does not bother me as I am a near vegetarian). Other items are missing. Even the BBC felt obliged to run a feature on empty shelves. My favorite tooth paste has disappeared. No more imported cereals. No more fresh milk, only the unregulated skim milk presentations, and not all the time. And a few other items missing at regular intervals. Stores are trying to cover up, for image, their gaping holes and thus you can find now toilet paper filling depleted cookies shelves. Or more and more, nothing.
There are many reasons, including a conspiracy theory that I am sorely tempted to write about. But the fact of the matter is that these scarcities are provoked EXCLUSIVELY by deficient government policies. There is a coupling of a few factors, ranging from general lawlessness that makes business extremely expensive and little profitable, to considerable delays in the granting of essential foreign currency for production, without forgetting corruption as usual, price controls dating from 2003 that the government refuse to adjust for the near 50% inflation since, and more. The result is simple: local Venezuelan production is simply insufficient when not dropping altogether. After all chavista are unable to understand the essential axiom of anyone managing a business: you are not going to manufacture stuff to sell it at a price BELOW what it cost you to make.
And thus the brightly growing economy is turning out to be yet a new Potemkin village as real production growth has been absent all these years and we are starting to feel the consequences. the fake façade being lots of imports and lots of trucks distributing them to governmental benefits recipients.
The Potemkin administration
OK, I admit it, this is an excuse to take a shot at the two prominent figures of the regime outside of Chavez. But who could resist seeing Jose Vicente Rangel and Jorge Rodriguez, vice presidents of Venezuela, as second rate modern day Potemkins (though as corrupt as the original one)?
Jose Vicente has been sort of fired in December. Nobody knows for sure whether he fell off Chavez favor or if he has decided to become a power behind the throne by setting off new favorites close to Chavez but who communicate often with him. After all on his own admission Jorge Rodriguez is close to Rangel.
Now JVR, out of office, has decided to return to TV. In his inaugural show he has decided to tell us how true journalism is done. Ironic that after 8 years in office, dodging real questions and refusing to account for anything, he is going to tell us how it is done, outdoing himself once again in cynicism. Unfortunately like many of Catherine favorites, once he shared the crime bed of Chavez he will never lack adulators (nor will he ever be trusted by serious thinkers again). Certainly that he welcomed Chavez as his first guests will allow him quite an amount of flattery and hangers on for the foreseeable future. Heck, I suspect that many opposition figure will be watching carefully his show in the ever hope of being the first ones to detect the first real sign of break up between Rangel and Chavez. But Potemkin was very careful to never break up completely with Catherine. After all, when you have shared the same bed for so long each one knows too much about the other one for an effective one way blackmail.
So JVR, we discover, has been so successful at fostering the career of Jorge Rodriguez that this one is the new favorite of Chavez. And he comes with a proven Potemkinesque track record. After all Jorgito presided of true Potemkin elections in 2004, and set up the system that continues to deliver such elections for the foreseeable future. Even today yet new allegations are surging about the validity of the 2004 results, but since the opposition has been stupid enough to accept the conditions of the 2006 election, then the 2004 sort of do not count anymore.
But Jorge Rodriguez has the quality required for a new Potemkin. As a shrink we can be sure to see cheap politic-psycho manipulation to make look everything as progress and success. After all when Rodriguez, dressed with a fabulous Italian suit states to an El Universal interview that “nobody questions the 2004 result anymore” you know what to expect (the suit looks much, much better on the printed edition). The interview has been translated into English here and is worth reading to take the full measure of the man and what is in store to strain our intelligence and credulity.
The Potemkin constitution
And to top it up, I cannot resist a final jab at the constitutional reform proposed. We were told that the 1999 constitution was the most perfect ever written in Venezuela (at least on a stylistic and grammatical point of view it sucks big time).
Well, the 1999 one was such an empty shell, so much violated already by the very same people who wrote it, that there is a need to change it. See, the only thing that ever mattered in the constitutional change of 1999 was to introduce the presidential reelection who wiser men have always predicted to be most of the time a bad idea in Latin America. Now in secret there is a discussion on how to create unlimited reelection of Chavez, the only thing that matters, a real village this time…
A Potemkin country
So now it just remains to sit an watch. Surely, as the country keeps degrading we will have more and more youth festival better and better organized and more and more colorful. Speakers at those festivals will grow and outdo each other in sycophancy to the “enlightened despot” who restricted the liberty of Venezuelans (and a few others in LatAm) just as to fight the elected tyranny of a Northern Country. It has always happen, even in starving countries such as North Korea. But it will all be a Potemkin Country, a real one this time, with all the required fakeness, including unfinished subways inaugurated in great pump or sugar mills that exist only in the pockets of corrupt military put in charge of the project.
became so as he was her lover, and made sure to feed the Imperial bed once he got tired of the aging tsarina (or she of him, more likely). But not any longer a “favorite” he retained both considerable power and great influence until his death. Yet for all his achievements (though questionable) he is remembered most for the “Potemkin Villages” that may or may not have existed, a very apt irony for the concept they represent. The legend, happily spread by his political enemies, came about when during a visit by Catherine to the new provinces, sailing down the Dnepr, he supposedly made a few fake villages and fake serfs cheering along the river’s bank. This way the Tsarina felt comforted in the belief that her newly conquered territories were indeed being settled and Russianized as God intended.This tale of what autocracy does to people has come back frequently to my mind. After all in Venezuela we have a despotic Tsarina who wants everyone to love her and who is looked upon
as a new “enlightened despot” by philosophical intellectuals only too happy to cash on her gifts and correspond with her as intellectual peer; we also have different little Potemkines around as there is no one of the stature of Potemkin in Venezuela. Then again Chavez does not have the stature of Catherine either, nor his pseudo-intellectual supporters the stature of the XVII century philosophers. But we can all agree at least on the “despot” part of the story. Thus I thought that as a weekend amiable entertainment I should look at a few of the Potemkin Villages of the Venezuelan pseudo-revolution, true Potemkin villages that is.The Potemkin money
Let’s start by the most recent invention. Apparently in a stroke of cosmetic genius they have decided to lop off three zeros from the Venezuelan currency, the Bolivar (VEB, Bs.) and call it the “Bolivar Fuerte” (Bs.F.). This will start right now, as early as January 1 2008.
Now, there are many cases in history where it has proven to be necessary for a government to change a strongly devaluated currency into a more manageable, and stable, currency. For example De Gaulle started the conversion of the French Franc into the Nouveau Franc by loping off two zeros. But he also added a fiscal restraint to the country and promoted over a decade of strong economic growth that stabilized that new currency who for all its fault only lost about 25% of its value until it became the Euro (courtesy of the inflationary policies of Mitterrand, by the way). But in both changes, there was a long educational, legal, fiscal process that allowed for a successful change of currency (now the Euro trashes the USD).We also have some cases where simply the governments decided upon a cosmetic changes when the loaf of bread started coasting more than 1 million. Usually within a few years the loaf of bread cost again a million and a new currency again came up. See Brazil, for example, before the Cardozo Plan finally put some order.
What is going on in Venezuela? The financial Potemkin of the regime, perennial financial minister, is supporting the simple loping off of three zeroes to the currency and noting else. No fiscal restraint. No accounting. No improved investment climate. No nothing. And through an unusual cadena of the Central bank, who left me in a state of stupor, the directory presented the whole thing as the best change since monetary sliced bread. Now, for the record, Giordani is the economy expert who has presided over the devaluation of the Venezuelan currency from a 550 to the USD when Chavez came to office in 1999 to the current 4000+ on the street market value we must put up with these days.
Now in all honesty I would like to believe that Giordani and the combo at the Central Bank could be qualified as modern days Potemkin for selling such a fail sure idea to Chavez. But at least Potemkin knew he was looting the country and faking some of his successes. These guys do not have successes to brag of and do not when know what fakes they are.
Meanwhile, I am taking bets as to when the next money change in Venezuela with an inflation that promises to go above the 20% annual rate for the years to come.
The Potemkin economy
Through 2006 we were treated of tales of Venezuelan economy booming at 10% rates. True on paper. Indeed with sky high oil prices and a governmental willingness to spend more than it was taking in to win (buy?) the presidential election, money was in the streets and the financial situation of the people in general improved (particularly for government people and their associates who started buying hummers, BMW and what not).
But once the election passed we got quite a different story. My
local Central Madeirense since early January has been lacking white sugar routinely. Beef also is frequently lacking and the little bit that comes is barely good enough to make stew or for the dogs (which admittedly does not bother me as I am a near vegetarian). Other items are missing. Even the BBC felt obliged to run a feature on empty shelves. My favorite tooth paste has disappeared. No more imported cereals. No more fresh milk, only the unregulated skim milk presentations, and not all the time. And a few other items missing at regular intervals. Stores are trying to cover up, for image, their gaping holes and thus you can find now toilet paper filling depleted cookies shelves. Or more and more, nothing.There are many reasons, including a conspiracy theory that I am sorely tempted to write about. But the fact of the matter is that these scarcities are provoked EXCLUSIVELY by deficient government policies. There is a coupling of a few factors, ranging from general lawlessness that makes business extremely expensive and little profitable, to considerable delays in the granting of essential foreign currency for production, without forgetting corruption as usual, price controls dating from 2003 that the government refuse to adjust for the near 50% inflation since, and more. The result is simple: local Venezuelan production is simply insufficient when not dropping altogether. After all chavista are unable to understand the essential axiom of anyone managing a business: you are not going to manufacture stuff to sell it at a price BELOW what it cost you to make.
And thus the brightly growing economy is turning out to be yet a new Potemkin village as real production growth has been absent all these years and we are starting to feel the consequences. the fake façade being lots of imports and lots of trucks distributing them to governmental benefits recipients.
The Potemkin administration
OK, I admit it, this is an excuse to take a shot at the two prominent figures of the regime outside of Chavez. But who could resist seeing Jose Vicente Rangel and Jorge Rodriguez, vice presidents of Venezuela, as second rate modern day Potemkins (though as corrupt as the original one)?
Jose Vicente has been sort of fired in December. Nobody knows for sure whether he fell off Chavez favor or if he has decided to become a power behind the throne by setting off new favorites close to Chavez but who communicate often with him. After all on his own admission Jorge Rodriguez is close to Rangel.
Now JVR, out of office, has decided to return to TV. In his inaugural show he has decided to tell us how true journalism is done. Ironic that after 8 years in office, dodging real questions and refusing to account for anything, he is going to tell us how it is done, outdoing himself once again in cynicism. Unfortunately like many of Catherine favorites, once he shared the crime bed of Chavez he will never lack adulators (nor will he ever be trusted by serious thinkers again). Certainly that he welcomed Chavez as his first guests will allow him quite an amount of flattery and hangers on for the foreseeable future. Heck, I suspect that many opposition figure will be watching carefully his show in the ever hope of being the first ones to detect the first real sign of break up between Rangel and Chavez. But Potemkin was very careful to never break up completely with Catherine. After all, when you have shared the same bed for so long each one knows too much about the other one for an effective one way blackmail.
So JVR, we discover, has been so successful at fostering the career of Jorge Rodriguez that this one is the new favorite of Chavez. And he comes with a proven Potemkinesque track record. After all Jorgito presided of true Potemkin elections in 2004, and set up the system that continues to deliver such elections for the foreseeable future. Even today yet new allegations are surging about the validity of the 2004 results, but since the opposition has been stupid enough to accept the conditions of the 2006 election, then the 2004 sort of do not count anymore.
But Jorge Rodriguez has the quality required for a new Potemkin. As a shrink we can be sure to see cheap politic-psycho manipulation to make look everything as progress and success. After all when Rodriguez, dressed with a fabulous Italian suit states to an El Universal interview that “nobody questions the 2004 result anymore” you know what to expect (the suit looks much, much better on the printed edition). The interview has been translated into English here and is worth reading to take the full measure of the man and what is in store to strain our intelligence and credulity.
The Potemkin constitution
And to top it up, I cannot resist a final jab at the constitutional reform proposed. We were told that the 1999 constitution was the most perfect ever written in Venezuela (at least on a stylistic and grammatical point of view it sucks big time).
Well, the 1999 one was such an empty shell, so much violated already by the very same people who wrote it, that there is a need to change it. See, the only thing that ever mattered in the constitutional change of 1999 was to introduce the presidential reelection who wiser men have always predicted to be most of the time a bad idea in Latin America. Now in secret there is a discussion on how to create unlimited reelection of Chavez, the only thing that matters, a real village this time…
A Potemkin country
So now it just remains to sit an watch. Surely, as the country keeps degrading we will have more and more youth festival better and better organized and more and more colorful. Speakers at those festivals will grow and outdo each other in sycophancy to the “enlightened despot” who restricted the liberty of Venezuelans (and a few others in LatAm) just as to fight the elected tyranny of a Northern Country. It has always happen, even in starving countries such as North Korea. But it will all be a Potemkin Country, a real one this time, with all the required fakeness, including unfinished subways inaugurated in great pump or sugar mills that exist only in the pockets of corrupt military put in charge of the project.
Thursday, January 04, 2007
Rodriguez Vice President of Venezuela: Death, where is thy sting?
Today some people were excited that Rodriguez, ex CNE president, was named to succeed Jose Vicente Rangel. I see no improvement. Rodriguez is perhaps the only person in Venezuela to be as cynical as Rangel, and thus perfect for the job. In other words, Chavez named a failed shrink, a failed public servant who got his lucky break under Chavez and did not miss it. By becoming the effective head of the CNE from December 2003 until 2006 he established the trickery electoral system that ensured that Chavez went from victory to victory, starting with outright fraud in 2004, passing through electoral discouragement in 2005 to outright vote buying in 2006.
And along the way Rodriguez is rumored to have become insolently rich on the commissions he cashed in for the electoral bric-a-brac he purchased to make the Venezuelan Electoral system automatic and vulnerable to electronic fraud.
Now, this man who has amply shown his intolerance, his vileness, his complete lack of ethical or moral values, his total disdain for whomever does not agree with him, is named by Chavez as the new vice president. Why? Because Rodriguez is a “Resentido Social”, an extremist, totally devoted to Chavez, who will not flinch for a second, who will not bat an eye to fulfill any of the desires of his master, no matter how reprehensible those might be. In other words, the tune is set up by Chavez: no dialogue, more revenge.
Stay tuned, I am translating an article of Milagros Socorro who was published today and could not be any more prescient as to what happened today in Venezuela with this nomination, which, by the way, was not unexpected at all. Cognoscenti were wondering when, but not if, Rodriguez would be named president. There is really no one else in Venezuela able to succeed Rangel who might even be missed sooner than later. I had already previewed the scenario in March 2006, using Rodriguez as a perfect example of "resentido social".
There is no sting in that nomination, more of the same, more out in the open, but with even less skill.
-The end-
And along the way Rodriguez is rumored to have become insolently rich on the commissions he cashed in for the electoral bric-a-brac he purchased to make the Venezuelan Electoral system automatic and vulnerable to electronic fraud.
Now, this man who has amply shown his intolerance, his vileness, his complete lack of ethical or moral values, his total disdain for whomever does not agree with him, is named by Chavez as the new vice president. Why? Because Rodriguez is a “Resentido Social”, an extremist, totally devoted to Chavez, who will not flinch for a second, who will not bat an eye to fulfill any of the desires of his master, no matter how reprehensible those might be. In other words, the tune is set up by Chavez: no dialogue, more revenge.
Stay tuned, I am translating an article of Milagros Socorro who was published today and could not be any more prescient as to what happened today in Venezuela with this nomination, which, by the way, was not unexpected at all. Cognoscenti were wondering when, but not if, Rodriguez would be named president. There is really no one else in Venezuela able to succeed Rangel who might even be missed sooner than later. I had already previewed the scenario in March 2006, using Rodriguez as a perfect example of "resentido social".
There is no sting in that nomination, more of the same, more out in the open, but with even less skill.
-The end-
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Tuesday, December 27, 2005
The 2005 Venezuela News Awards
OK, so it is this time of the year and if it seems that anyone can give awards, why not this blog? Of course there is absolutely no objectivity form the owner of this page, sole juror in the decision making process. Any complaint can be addressed to Chavez himself as all awards revolve around how these winners behaved vis-à-vis of El Supremo. However I trust that some might agree with my decisions.
Man of the year
Hugo Chavez Frias of course. Were Chavez to have left office, this blog would have ceased as its raison d’être is to narrate what a budding tyrant Chavez is. He is already a tyrant for his own people, and day by day the ones differing with him feel more and more the brunt of his ire.
Chavista of the year
This award is for the chavista that has done more to ensure the power of his overlord, in as destructive a manner as possible. If the contest was tough, the winner emerged triumphantly on December 4th, when at least 75% of the country announced its repudiation to the way things were run, if not of their repudiation of Chavez himself. The winner thus could be no one else but Jorge Rodriguez, the electoral board CNE head.
Mr. Rodriguez has indeed accumulated many merits. If the CNE cannot be accused of outright electoral fraud, now even international observers are keen on the way this one favors the chavista side, in particular by turning a consistent blind eye to the presidential politics and interferences in the election campaign, from cadenas to indiscriminate use of public funds to support its candidates.
Along the way Rodriguez has become the hero of a sector of chavismo who think it is right to cheat to have their leader on top. Reception of Rodriguez at any chavista meeting is nearly an apotheosis. Rodriguez only receives opposition leaders behind closed doors, briefly, rarely, and always ends up criticizing them. It is difficult to imagine a more partial umpire as Rodriguez, who adding insult to injury, presides the public position which requires the most impartial person of the country, even more perhaps than the High Court. No wonder the CNE is now routinely termed “the electoral ministry” as it receives its orders straight from the boss, and obeys them better than any other ministry in the chavista administration.
Sleazy bureaucrat of the year (female)
This was a surprise late minute winner. She is Delcy Rodriguez, sister of the chavista of the year award winner. Her role is vice minister for European affairs. Her performance has been lackluster at best. She is rumored to have been more preoccupied in purging staff at the foreign ministry and promoting “Bolivarian” activities in Europe than getting better ties and investments from European countries. She outraced on the final sprint any other bureaucrat when she went out of her way to criticize the EU and OAS preliminary reports, a function that to begin with was not for her to do, and which was carried in a rather inadmissible fashion anyway for the diplomatic world. Thus she proved that she united in herself all the qualities that make a perfect chavista bureaucrat: fidelity against all reason to her boss; general incompetence and lack of imagination; desire of revenge at all costs from true or imaginary offenses (she is the daughter of an assassinated political leader who probably was more democratic than his brood and might not have approved of the way they have been betraying Venezuelan democracy).
Sleazy bureaucrat of the year (male)
Isaias Rodriguez, the general prosecutor. It is hard to imagine anyone more servile, lackluster, manipulator, liar, betrayer, etc, etc… In the annals of chavismo he will shine in his own light such as people like Goebbels or Beria or Pedro Estrada are still mentioned as human rejects.
Fascist of the year (female)
Again, the winner in an extremely contested field comes at the last minute. Iris Varela, announcing on December 4 that public servants that did not go to vote should be fired on the 5th, has demonstrated how fascist the regime is. With this award she can be the pin up girl of the fascist chavista wing. She will have a great future organizing the personnel to monitor the concentration camps that she would be building as we speak if she were allowed to. But that is OK Iris, soon they might start listening to you.
Fascist of the year (male)
This award has been well earned through an impeccable track record through the year, even if in December the winner has added several brownie points to consolidate what was already an insurmountable lead. The winner has managed in a single year to muzzle the organization he presided, to transform it in a rubber stamp parliament starting January 2006. He has insulted any person that ever dared to oppose chavismo in terms that even Chavez would paused before using. Outright lies, manipulations are his routine tools of the trade. The winner is of course Nicolas Maduro, who in addition had the nerve to travel to India in the middle of the electoral campaign, demonstrating that the CNE was making sure he would be reelected no matter what, and demonstrating at the same time that Maduro was already operating as if Venezuela were already a fascist state where elections did not matter.
Leech of the year
For the six year in a row, Fidel Castro. Though this year Argentina’s Kirchner gave him a good run.
Survivor of the year
Ramos Allup has managed to come from leading an agonizing party to come back to the forefront of the opposition political scene by jumping first off the electoral ship. This dazzling maneuver allowed him to lead the abstentions party while never proposing abstention, allowed him to send its leading rival Primero Justicia in a tail spin where this one might start a series of divisions just as AD has been doing for decades, and has allowed him to become again a valid partner for chavismo if this one decides to create an “official opposition”.
Loser of the year
Julio Borges. For failing to see where the wind blew from, he jeopardized his hard work at trying to promote his candidacy and might have provoked a division of his party, Primero Justicia.
Street walker of the year
Roberto Smith who walked for nothing from Tachira to Caracas. The little bit of notoriety he might have obtained only allowed observers to see what a wishy-washy character he is, pretending at this moment not to be in the opposition or with chavismo instead coming across as a used car salesman.
Opposition leader of the year
This award actually had only one contestant who nevertheless managed to deserve his award. Teodoro Petkoff has managed to avoid the pitfalls of a fragmented opposition, then even though he opposed the abstention movement that lead to December 4, was able to understand it and to try to make the best of its consequences without crass manipulation and posturing. Even if the polls do not favor him right now, he seems definitely as the only valid option in 2006 as his potential opponents have done their best to sabotage themselves, including Chavez.
Newspaper of the year (tie)
For Tal Cual for having raised the political debate and for El Universal for its consistency in opposition since 1998 and for still being the only one with a free access English section.
Rag of the year
VEA, the chavista newspaper who cannot raise above its condition of propaganda and directions relay to the hard core chavista base. A true rag if any in Venezuela, who cannot get even some inspiration from Ultimas Noticias or Panorama.
TV station of the year
Globovision for insisting bravely in reporting the news in spite of Chavez threats and for receiving now an astounding numbers of chavistas callers complaining against the poor performance of public servants, complaints from people who often claimed that they are not allowed access to chavista media (in spite of the creation of ANTV, VIVE TV, TeleSur and some regional variations: apparently the more chavista TV we get, the less the spontaneity in people airing their claims).
Media show of the year
The Danilo Anderson investigation. Hollywood would be hard pressed to write such a B category screen play.
Conspiracy theory of the year
The CIA who seems even to be behind the lousy trash collection in Caracas streets. Who would have thought that the CIA arm reached that far?
Most perceptive political analyst of the year
One woman in Boston (Linda Kelly?) who said receiving cheap oil from Citgo that Venezuelan oil belonged to Chavez and he could do as he pleased with it.
Media personality of the year
Leopoldo Castillo of Globovision’s Alo Ciudadano who seems to have become the darling of the downtrodden masses, be they chavista or opposition. Rumored to be the one Chavez hates the most, not a small feat considering all the hatred emanating from that side.
Blogs of the year (multi tie)
Many opposition blogs who have accumulated notice, from newspaper citation to radio interviews and awards. OK, so I am including myself in the list, otherwise what is the point of writing such a list? :-)
Man of the year
Hugo Chavez Frias of course. Were Chavez to have left office, this blog would have ceased as its raison d’être is to narrate what a budding tyrant Chavez is. He is already a tyrant for his own people, and day by day the ones differing with him feel more and more the brunt of his ire.
Chavista of the year
This award is for the chavista that has done more to ensure the power of his overlord, in as destructive a manner as possible. If the contest was tough, the winner emerged triumphantly on December 4th, when at least 75% of the country announced its repudiation to the way things were run, if not of their repudiation of Chavez himself. The winner thus could be no one else but Jorge Rodriguez, the electoral board CNE head.
Mr. Rodriguez has indeed accumulated many merits. If the CNE cannot be accused of outright electoral fraud, now even international observers are keen on the way this one favors the chavista side, in particular by turning a consistent blind eye to the presidential politics and interferences in the election campaign, from cadenas to indiscriminate use of public funds to support its candidates.
Along the way Rodriguez has become the hero of a sector of chavismo who think it is right to cheat to have their leader on top. Reception of Rodriguez at any chavista meeting is nearly an apotheosis. Rodriguez only receives opposition leaders behind closed doors, briefly, rarely, and always ends up criticizing them. It is difficult to imagine a more partial umpire as Rodriguez, who adding insult to injury, presides the public position which requires the most impartial person of the country, even more perhaps than the High Court. No wonder the CNE is now routinely termed “the electoral ministry” as it receives its orders straight from the boss, and obeys them better than any other ministry in the chavista administration.
Sleazy bureaucrat of the year (female)
This was a surprise late minute winner. She is Delcy Rodriguez, sister of the chavista of the year award winner. Her role is vice minister for European affairs. Her performance has been lackluster at best. She is rumored to have been more preoccupied in purging staff at the foreign ministry and promoting “Bolivarian” activities in Europe than getting better ties and investments from European countries. She outraced on the final sprint any other bureaucrat when she went out of her way to criticize the EU and OAS preliminary reports, a function that to begin with was not for her to do, and which was carried in a rather inadmissible fashion anyway for the diplomatic world. Thus she proved that she united in herself all the qualities that make a perfect chavista bureaucrat: fidelity against all reason to her boss; general incompetence and lack of imagination; desire of revenge at all costs from true or imaginary offenses (she is the daughter of an assassinated political leader who probably was more democratic than his brood and might not have approved of the way they have been betraying Venezuelan democracy).
Sleazy bureaucrat of the year (male)
Isaias Rodriguez, the general prosecutor. It is hard to imagine anyone more servile, lackluster, manipulator, liar, betrayer, etc, etc… In the annals of chavismo he will shine in his own light such as people like Goebbels or Beria or Pedro Estrada are still mentioned as human rejects.
Fascist of the year (female)
Again, the winner in an extremely contested field comes at the last minute. Iris Varela, announcing on December 4 that public servants that did not go to vote should be fired on the 5th, has demonstrated how fascist the regime is. With this award she can be the pin up girl of the fascist chavista wing. She will have a great future organizing the personnel to monitor the concentration camps that she would be building as we speak if she were allowed to. But that is OK Iris, soon they might start listening to you.
Fascist of the year (male)
This award has been well earned through an impeccable track record through the year, even if in December the winner has added several brownie points to consolidate what was already an insurmountable lead. The winner has managed in a single year to muzzle the organization he presided, to transform it in a rubber stamp parliament starting January 2006. He has insulted any person that ever dared to oppose chavismo in terms that even Chavez would paused before using. Outright lies, manipulations are his routine tools of the trade. The winner is of course Nicolas Maduro, who in addition had the nerve to travel to India in the middle of the electoral campaign, demonstrating that the CNE was making sure he would be reelected no matter what, and demonstrating at the same time that Maduro was already operating as if Venezuela were already a fascist state where elections did not matter.
Leech of the year
For the six year in a row, Fidel Castro. Though this year Argentina’s Kirchner gave him a good run.
Survivor of the year
Ramos Allup has managed to come from leading an agonizing party to come back to the forefront of the opposition political scene by jumping first off the electoral ship. This dazzling maneuver allowed him to lead the abstentions party while never proposing abstention, allowed him to send its leading rival Primero Justicia in a tail spin where this one might start a series of divisions just as AD has been doing for decades, and has allowed him to become again a valid partner for chavismo if this one decides to create an “official opposition”.
Loser of the year
Julio Borges. For failing to see where the wind blew from, he jeopardized his hard work at trying to promote his candidacy and might have provoked a division of his party, Primero Justicia.
Street walker of the year
Roberto Smith who walked for nothing from Tachira to Caracas. The little bit of notoriety he might have obtained only allowed observers to see what a wishy-washy character he is, pretending at this moment not to be in the opposition or with chavismo instead coming across as a used car salesman.
Opposition leader of the year
This award actually had only one contestant who nevertheless managed to deserve his award. Teodoro Petkoff has managed to avoid the pitfalls of a fragmented opposition, then even though he opposed the abstention movement that lead to December 4, was able to understand it and to try to make the best of its consequences without crass manipulation and posturing. Even if the polls do not favor him right now, he seems definitely as the only valid option in 2006 as his potential opponents have done their best to sabotage themselves, including Chavez.
Newspaper of the year (tie)
For Tal Cual for having raised the political debate and for El Universal for its consistency in opposition since 1998 and for still being the only one with a free access English section.
Rag of the year
VEA, the chavista newspaper who cannot raise above its condition of propaganda and directions relay to the hard core chavista base. A true rag if any in Venezuela, who cannot get even some inspiration from Ultimas Noticias or Panorama.
TV station of the year
Globovision for insisting bravely in reporting the news in spite of Chavez threats and for receiving now an astounding numbers of chavistas callers complaining against the poor performance of public servants, complaints from people who often claimed that they are not allowed access to chavista media (in spite of the creation of ANTV, VIVE TV, TeleSur and some regional variations: apparently the more chavista TV we get, the less the spontaneity in people airing their claims).
Media show of the year
The Danilo Anderson investigation. Hollywood would be hard pressed to write such a B category screen play.
Conspiracy theory of the year
The CIA who seems even to be behind the lousy trash collection in Caracas streets. Who would have thought that the CIA arm reached that far?
Most perceptive political analyst of the year
One woman in Boston (Linda Kelly?) who said receiving cheap oil from Citgo that Venezuelan oil belonged to Chavez and he could do as he pleased with it.
Media personality of the year
Leopoldo Castillo of Globovision’s Alo Ciudadano who seems to have become the darling of the downtrodden masses, be they chavista or opposition. Rumored to be the one Chavez hates the most, not a small feat considering all the hatred emanating from that side.
Blogs of the year (multi tie)
Many opposition blogs who have accumulated notice, from newspaper citation to radio interviews and awards. OK, so I am including myself in the list, otherwise what is the point of writing such a list? :-)
Sunday, August 07, 2005
The Electoral Day post: boring Venezuelan local elections
Although I do not think it really worthwhile, I still will be write a post with a few updates through the day. From past experiences, I have found out that people do appreciate this type of info, in particular when they live overseas and cannot vote. And even if they live at home, just to see how voting is working elsewhere, from the point of view of the voter on the street...
9:30 AM
The day did not start very well. I stayed up late watching an old Bond flick on cable "You only live twice", but I am a sucker for Bond movies, even as they are now totally outdated technologically, when not downright silly. However they do reflect something of the times when they came out, something of what people thought the future would be. Bad Russians, not so good Americans (you needed ratings everywhere in the world) and of course rather nice and not as inconsequential as one would have thought Britishers.
Still, when the voting station close to my house opened the racket was enough to wake me up by 6 AM. At 7 AM, desperately tossing around to get back a couple more hours of sleep (it is Sunday after all) the "pregonera" (street peddler) of Yaracuy al Dia started screaming for people to get up and buy her papers. She never does it that early on Sundays! Yaracuy al Dia is the rather infamous pro Chavez paper and I suppose it is some sort of conspiracy to force chavistas to go out and vote.
Well, eventually I did manage to go back to sleep but by 8:30 I was up fixing the coffee pot and leaving to buy the Sunday papers: EL Universal, El Nacional and El Yaracuyano, the almost as infamous anti Chavez local paper that I feel compelled to buy on Sundays, as I cannot bring myself to buy Yaracuy al Dia anymore, too awful. I used to buy both, only on Sundays, but since the Recall Election I have stopped buying pro Chavez papers, as I have stopped watching VTV which I religiously watched, duty bound to inform myself and on occasion my readers. But after August I saw no point anymore in hearing or paying to read the eternal repeats, slogans and complaints of chavismo when I can get a quick summary anywhere else.
Thus on my way to the newspaper stand I passed in front of two deserted voting centers. I have been watching the one close to my home and indeed on occasion I can see someone coming in and out. But the main activity consists on two soldiers and one officer, in their really ugly new Cuban like drab olive uniforms. Boy, are they ugly!
For the record, in August 2004 the lines went completely around the block by 8 AM......
Abstention will be heavy, no matter what they say, even in Yaracuy who tends to vote more than other places. In fact I could not help but to observe that the lottery ticket shop two blocks away had more people than the voting station. Obviously people know where the odds of a better future lay.
2:10 PM
I have not voted yet. It is open until 4 PM.
Or is it?
Rodriguez, the CNE ineffable head with his crispating voice and tone has just announced that voting will be extended until 6 PM. "Due to weather and some logistical problems". Translation: chavismo has trouble to make their people vote and requested two more hours to improve the low participation numbers, as seen on TV. Indeed, the beaches in Caracas sea shore are full; the longest voting line I have seen so far on TV had no more than a half dozen people; here, across the street the situation is the same, people on occasion walk in. Even in October 31 2004, there was until around 1 PM a line of a dozen people. Today, no line, at all, at any given time. In fact the showing across is so poor that I have desisted to try to drive around and watch the other voting center: Globovision is not lying, it is showing what I see from my window.
Now, I will share a little bit of gossip. My S.O. in Caracas has decided not to vote though I am still working on it. However, my putative mother in law who has voted for Chavez every time announced today that she would vote for the Primero Justicia candidates. She lives downtown Caracas, in the Calcutta like city that Bernal has created. All her love for Chavez could not convince her to vote for Bernal candidates. The mess it too obvious, too many homeless, too much trash, too deficient a garbage collection system, too tired to have to be home at a curfew time imposed by crime, too tired of fighting with illegal peddlers for a path to walk on the side walks, etc, and more etc.... We are all in awe! My S.O. siblings have been deserting Chavez long ago (S.O. did vote for Chavez in 1998, first and last time, being even more of a against Chavez than I am, as I assume when one works as a public employee it is easier to watch the beast from inside). Oh well...
I suppose that I should brush my teeth and go vote. For the first time in my life I will be voting in an afternoon: I delighted so much in voting that I always was done by noon. But today it is a chore. By the way, I do not even know the names of my candidates, or what they stand for. It is enough for me to know that they will be defending the sitting mayor whose work is sort of OK. This is what Chavez has done to us, we vote against or for him. Even to sweep our streets. Period.
2:40 PM
I have been receiving messages from people working with Sumate and opposition observers. The numbers would be in the 10% participation around noon, chavismo having lots of trouble to drag their people to vote. Hence the voting extension? Naaahhhh.....
Another rumor is that there is a distribution of Mercal coupons and other goodies in order to convince folks to board the buses and go to vote. Heck, if Chavez gives me Mercal coupons I will go and vote right now!
There is also trouble in one of Carabobo townships, Miranda, where the mayor has to be voted again. Suddenly there were a few buses arriving FROM Valencia with Chavez supporters that have been switched to that district to vote. Imagine that!!!! Nothing on TV so far. So we will wait for final confirmation.
3:00 PM
The soldiers that are watching the voting center across my house are so bored that they are actually helping the rare people that show up to vote in looking for their name on the list. I do tell you ...
I also got preliminary confirmation for the Miranda incident but still nothing on TV.
I guess I am going to get ready now and go to vote and make a driving round of voting centers. See you around 4 PM.
3:50 PM
Actually it started raining so I postponed my voting. Which gave me time to scan TV, including VTV. Amazing!
Jorge Rodriguez just gave an extensive interview to Globovision!!! We all know where the ratings are when someone needs to have their message out!!!
VTV, the state TV, has a small panel of people, all wearing some red on them (very impartial of course). The background is a logo special for the day which looks more like a propaganda item about "popular democracy" than any serious newsy logo adequate for the day. And there are some people that till think that VTV has any objectivity in it. Of course the only long lines shown are those from Amazonas state where there are also governor elections and people are going out to vote. The rest? "people are voting, thank you very much!" and scarce images (you can always find in popular districts little lines of a dozen of people, and if you forget to mention that normally liens there are in the hundred, you might fool a few...
But the best was a William Lara interview, also on VTV. He recognized that although voting was high in popular districts [define high] the middle class and upper class sectors were showing large abstention! I mean, the guy has finally recognized that chavismo cannot count on the people that manage a modern economy!!!! No wonder inefficacy in government is reaching such dramatic levels!!! How come Lara is admitting such a thing!?
Now, before the pro abstention camp chants victory, I do not think that this abstention has anything to do with organization, it has to do with just "I have stopped caring" attitude. Let chavismo collapse on its own! The hole in Paracotos is the perfect omen....
Well, raining is stopping, I am off to vote now.
5:00 PM
I voted. It lasted a few minutes because there was no list of candidates anywhere and I wanted to check again as I am not voting straight ticket (I never vote straight ticket!). During all this time, including the time to consult the list that eventually was given to me from a non descript pile in a corner, my voting time, my complain that the vote I emitted could barely be read on the printed ticket (indeed, it would be very easy for a greasy thumb to smudge my vote and make it "null"), and some chit chat as to how many people came to vote, NO ONE ELSE came to vote at my table. Eventually one guy admitted that of the 500 plus registered voters for that table at around 4:30 barely a hundred had voted!!!! That makes, say, 150 voters in 10,5 hours of voting. 10 voters an hour!
On the way back I drove in front of several voting centers and there was little to no activity. Back home the one in front at the three soldiers at the door, chit chatting. No one inside.
We'll see.
5:50 PM
One of the CNE rectors, Tibisay Lucena, has just announced that due to voting lines and what not, voting has been extended until 7 PM!!!! Excuses, excuses!!! On TV, as I type, she is being questioned and she is answering rehearsed replies. Tibisay Lucena was at the Recall Election time a sub rector and the principal accomplice of Jorge Rodriguez in all the tricks that this one made at the time. She was duly recompensed by being promoted to full rector.
She is lying as far as I know. Only Amazonas has reported any significant lines and that is due that people are motivated there to vote for governor. In Globovision Roberto Giusti is already asking THE question: how come if through the whole day attendance was light, suddenly a few minutes before closing time people are rushing to vote and the CNE needs to keep voting centers open?
This is highly suspicious. I mean, if Tibisay Lucena were saying that in such and such state or city there was this and that problem and then they decided that in those states to keep voting stations open one extra hour, I could still buy it. But when challenged by a journalist she replied something like this: "well, you have limited rounds and we have a global picture. I know what I am talking about". And that is that, no further details!!! B.S.!!! Arrogance!!! Lucena is as usual up to all the tricks she has learned to apply for over a year now!!!
Sobella Mejias? Where are you? This is your chance to shine!!!! Or have you just become a Lucena?
6:22 PM
It did not last long. Primero Justicia has complained about the voting extension announcing that 98% of voting centers are empty and these ones should be closed right now. That there was absolutely no reason to keep them open as by law they should have been closed while the ones with people still voting can remain open as long as necessary by law.
Fraud anyone? As usual, it is the behavior of the CNE, the arrogance of its directors that is the main cause for suspicions. Do they do it on purpose or are they that arrogant?
Things are heating up.
TV, by the way finally showed up the fraud attempt in Miranda township of Carabobo. In other words, indeed, the CNE is being, charitably said, very lax with supervision. If not helping fraud all along. Even when they are winning!!!!!!! Since supposedly it is the opposition who is not voting. Go figure..... Union Radio carries interesting info on how things developed there where the burping governor behaves as your regular small town bad guy, un malandro forajido!
6:51 PM
Maybe I should change the title of this post. The day is turning out to become exciting as the evening progresses.
Sobella Mejias came out and I think I understood that she was not in agreement with the voting extension. Though as usual she tries not to engage herself in a decisive way.
As soon as she shut up, from Primero Justicia we hear that they consider that Mejias has announced that the extra voting is illegal and that they are leaving right then and there for the CNE to confront Rodriguez. I bet you that Rodriguez is going to hide (or already celebrating with Chavez that the strategy to promote abstention has worked and that 90% of municipal councilors are now in the hands of chavismo).
Now my question to all the abstention promoters. So you won, you got obviously one of the highest if not the highest abstention on Venezuelan records. But in a couple of weeks that 90% of chavista councilors will be sworn in and nobody is going, legally, to worry about it. Municipal orders will be voted and we will have to live with it.
So, dear abstentionists: what is the next move?
6:59 PM
Rodriguez on TV. Voting is closed. I suppose that Primero Justicia can go back home.
7:15 PM
I am listening to Jorge Rodriguez. He is completely outdone once again. Taking any criticism personally. Claiming that all he and the CNE did is perfect, that there is no reason whatsoever to complain.
And this used to make a living as a shrink? No wonder he switched to more lucrative activities....
Again, the arrogance of Rodriguez and the CNE is just astounding. And then they complain that so many people do not trust them? I, for one, could never trust Rodriguez. Nobody with such change of moods, so thin skinned, can be trusted in a position where there is so much pressure applied!
8:45 PM
This will probably be the last entry for today as no results will be published until the CNE gives its first official announcement. And there is no need for me to watch results that are meaningless anyway. It can wait for tomorrow. Though Sumate has made a very strong declaration accusing Rodriguez of being a liar, among other irregularities committed today by the CNE. So I might comeback for one last hurrah before going to bed as this unfolds.
However there is something I want to discuss tonight. I forgot to mention that my voting center had no "cazahuellas" whereas we had then in August and October 2004. I started thinking about it and I do not like what I am coming up with.
The "cazahuellas" are the controversial machines where an electronic finger print is taken just as in the US airports authorities do to incoming aliens. Maybe at an airport, but at a polling station? Where people who vote must dip a finger in a stinky ink? (I can smell my finger as type, in spite of thorough washing). And then, how come with so many reports of buying extra finger printing machines my voting center lost its own ones?
This is my explanation. The REAL REASON FOR THE FINGER PRINTING MACHINES is that they allow in real time the CNE to know who is voting and where. Considering the extensive data base on opposition electors courtesy to all these signatures, it is easy for the CNE to predict how the vote is doing and going (what happened on the Recall Election).
Today they knew that centers where the opposition is strong, such as my voting center, would vote lightly at most. What was worrying chavismo was the response of their own electors, the need to have a reasonable participation. Thus there was no need to monitor opposition sectors, to send needed help there to man crucial control tools. It is my theory, at this point, that cazahuellas were sent to all popular sectors, to make sure that the turn out of chavismo would be monitored real time, to give chavismo time to make corrections, to go and fetch their electors, be it from their good will or bribing them with Mercal tickets. How else can one explain that Rodriguez announced that turn out went up in the last two hours? And thus keeping up voting centers? There was no increase in Yaracuy turn out as far as I could see. So, where was that increase?
I am asking people who had cazahuellas in previous processes and not this time to write to Sumate and report it. This might be rather important, in particular if by December they force on us electronic elector registry which combined with voting machines, and cazahuellas could effectively blow away the secret of vote. You can write there, I suppose: info@sumate.org
9:00 PM
A quickie on local impressions (this is a regional blog and I must remind readers).
In Yaracuy ex governor Lapi has bemoaned the lack of voters, as he voted himself. In Carabobo beaches were full, while Valencia and the Puerto Cabello area had few voters. A foreign observer had no qualms in stating that in his opinion no more than 24% voted. In Lara I have relatives that live in a chavista area. Turn out was light, definitley lighter than last October. One realtive who is applying for some government benefit went to vote, least they checked on her voting status. She told me that she was surprised at how many of her neighbors did not bother voting and where supposedly chavista. So it did cut both ways and no wonder the Tibisay and Jorge combo where doing some last minute maneuvers.
10:05 PM
Rodriguez is speaking but he is really not saying much. That is, with 80 % something of machines reporting he still cannot advance an abstention number.... Imagine that..... And forget about an election result. But he cannot repress the data much longer so he needs to make a first bulletin so that the media can start advancing their results. As it is usual in Venezuela, the first ones to know the victors are the media and political party, the CNE (or its previous incarnations) is the last one to know.
An amusing note, Rodriguez is trying to defend the prolongation of voting hours, on emotional arguments of course, since he is violating the law. Each time Rodriguez is pressed on that issue, he replies "why don't you ask what those people feel about that?" Perfect manipulating and indecent reply from someone in his position.
I have a problem with that: there is a law.
You have from 7 AM to 4 PM to vote. Why do people feel that they can decide to waltz in at 6:30 PM to vote and why they must force the volunteers to stay so many more hours of their time? I am sorry, but Rodriguez argument is flawed. When you favor some you start affecting others and this is the end fo fairness. Sorry, but no deal Jorgito. The law states that whoever is on line at 4 PM has a right to force the voting center to remain open until every vote is cast.
On another thing. I did check the abstention in my home state, 32.8 % in October 2004. Let's see what the results are today.
One more update, sorry! 10:41 PM
On TV. Zulia governor seems happy. He obtained enough seats apparently.
Primero Justicia's Gerardo Blyde has just announced in an interview with Nitu Perez Osuna, that wherever Primero Justicia run it carried seats bigtime, even 7 out of 7 out of Chacao, and is fighting for the majority council in Sucre and a few other good resutls here and there. IN SPITE of massive abstention.
[see you tomorrow, I have had it with the Jorgito combo for the day]
9:30 AM
The day did not start very well. I stayed up late watching an old Bond flick on cable "You only live twice", but I am a sucker for Bond movies, even as they are now totally outdated technologically, when not downright silly. However they do reflect something of the times when they came out, something of what people thought the future would be. Bad Russians, not so good Americans (you needed ratings everywhere in the world) and of course rather nice and not as inconsequential as one would have thought Britishers.
Still, when the voting station close to my house opened the racket was enough to wake me up by 6 AM. At 7 AM, desperately tossing around to get back a couple more hours of sleep (it is Sunday after all) the "pregonera" (street peddler) of Yaracuy al Dia started screaming for people to get up and buy her papers. She never does it that early on Sundays! Yaracuy al Dia is the rather infamous pro Chavez paper and I suppose it is some sort of conspiracy to force chavistas to go out and vote.
Well, eventually I did manage to go back to sleep but by 8:30 I was up fixing the coffee pot and leaving to buy the Sunday papers: EL Universal, El Nacional and El Yaracuyano, the almost as infamous anti Chavez local paper that I feel compelled to buy on Sundays, as I cannot bring myself to buy Yaracuy al Dia anymore, too awful. I used to buy both, only on Sundays, but since the Recall Election I have stopped buying pro Chavez papers, as I have stopped watching VTV which I religiously watched, duty bound to inform myself and on occasion my readers. But after August I saw no point anymore in hearing or paying to read the eternal repeats, slogans and complaints of chavismo when I can get a quick summary anywhere else.
Thus on my way to the newspaper stand I passed in front of two deserted voting centers. I have been watching the one close to my home and indeed on occasion I can see someone coming in and out. But the main activity consists on two soldiers and one officer, in their really ugly new Cuban like drab olive uniforms. Boy, are they ugly!
For the record, in August 2004 the lines went completely around the block by 8 AM......
Abstention will be heavy, no matter what they say, even in Yaracuy who tends to vote more than other places. In fact I could not help but to observe that the lottery ticket shop two blocks away had more people than the voting station. Obviously people know where the odds of a better future lay.
2:10 PM
I have not voted yet. It is open until 4 PM.
Or is it?
Rodriguez, the CNE ineffable head with his crispating voice and tone has just announced that voting will be extended until 6 PM. "Due to weather and some logistical problems". Translation: chavismo has trouble to make their people vote and requested two more hours to improve the low participation numbers, as seen on TV. Indeed, the beaches in Caracas sea shore are full; the longest voting line I have seen so far on TV had no more than a half dozen people; here, across the street the situation is the same, people on occasion walk in. Even in October 31 2004, there was until around 1 PM a line of a dozen people. Today, no line, at all, at any given time. In fact the showing across is so poor that I have desisted to try to drive around and watch the other voting center: Globovision is not lying, it is showing what I see from my window.
Now, I will share a little bit of gossip. My S.O. in Caracas has decided not to vote though I am still working on it. However, my putative mother in law who has voted for Chavez every time announced today that she would vote for the Primero Justicia candidates. She lives downtown Caracas, in the Calcutta like city that Bernal has created. All her love for Chavez could not convince her to vote for Bernal candidates. The mess it too obvious, too many homeless, too much trash, too deficient a garbage collection system, too tired to have to be home at a curfew time imposed by crime, too tired of fighting with illegal peddlers for a path to walk on the side walks, etc, and more etc.... We are all in awe! My S.O. siblings have been deserting Chavez long ago (S.O. did vote for Chavez in 1998, first and last time, being even more of a against Chavez than I am, as I assume when one works as a public employee it is easier to watch the beast from inside). Oh well...
I suppose that I should brush my teeth and go vote. For the first time in my life I will be voting in an afternoon: I delighted so much in voting that I always was done by noon. But today it is a chore. By the way, I do not even know the names of my candidates, or what they stand for. It is enough for me to know that they will be defending the sitting mayor whose work is sort of OK. This is what Chavez has done to us, we vote against or for him. Even to sweep our streets. Period.
2:40 PM
I have been receiving messages from people working with Sumate and opposition observers. The numbers would be in the 10% participation around noon, chavismo having lots of trouble to drag their people to vote. Hence the voting extension? Naaahhhh.....
Another rumor is that there is a distribution of Mercal coupons and other goodies in order to convince folks to board the buses and go to vote. Heck, if Chavez gives me Mercal coupons I will go and vote right now!
There is also trouble in one of Carabobo townships, Miranda, where the mayor has to be voted again. Suddenly there were a few buses arriving FROM Valencia with Chavez supporters that have been switched to that district to vote. Imagine that!!!! Nothing on TV so far. So we will wait for final confirmation.
3:00 PM
The soldiers that are watching the voting center across my house are so bored that they are actually helping the rare people that show up to vote in looking for their name on the list. I do tell you ...
I also got preliminary confirmation for the Miranda incident but still nothing on TV.
I guess I am going to get ready now and go to vote and make a driving round of voting centers. See you around 4 PM.
3:50 PM
Actually it started raining so I postponed my voting. Which gave me time to scan TV, including VTV. Amazing!
Jorge Rodriguez just gave an extensive interview to Globovision!!! We all know where the ratings are when someone needs to have their message out!!!
VTV, the state TV, has a small panel of people, all wearing some red on them (very impartial of course). The background is a logo special for the day which looks more like a propaganda item about "popular democracy" than any serious newsy logo adequate for the day. And there are some people that till think that VTV has any objectivity in it. Of course the only long lines shown are those from Amazonas state where there are also governor elections and people are going out to vote. The rest? "people are voting, thank you very much!" and scarce images (you can always find in popular districts little lines of a dozen of people, and if you forget to mention that normally liens there are in the hundred, you might fool a few...
But the best was a William Lara interview, also on VTV. He recognized that although voting was high in popular districts [define high] the middle class and upper class sectors were showing large abstention! I mean, the guy has finally recognized that chavismo cannot count on the people that manage a modern economy!!!! No wonder inefficacy in government is reaching such dramatic levels!!! How come Lara is admitting such a thing!?
Now, before the pro abstention camp chants victory, I do not think that this abstention has anything to do with organization, it has to do with just "I have stopped caring" attitude. Let chavismo collapse on its own! The hole in Paracotos is the perfect omen....
Well, raining is stopping, I am off to vote now.
5:00 PM
I voted. It lasted a few minutes because there was no list of candidates anywhere and I wanted to check again as I am not voting straight ticket (I never vote straight ticket!). During all this time, including the time to consult the list that eventually was given to me from a non descript pile in a corner, my voting time, my complain that the vote I emitted could barely be read on the printed ticket (indeed, it would be very easy for a greasy thumb to smudge my vote and make it "null"), and some chit chat as to how many people came to vote, NO ONE ELSE came to vote at my table. Eventually one guy admitted that of the 500 plus registered voters for that table at around 4:30 barely a hundred had voted!!!! That makes, say, 150 voters in 10,5 hours of voting. 10 voters an hour!
On the way back I drove in front of several voting centers and there was little to no activity. Back home the one in front at the three soldiers at the door, chit chatting. No one inside.
We'll see.
5:50 PM
One of the CNE rectors, Tibisay Lucena, has just announced that due to voting lines and what not, voting has been extended until 7 PM!!!! Excuses, excuses!!! On TV, as I type, she is being questioned and she is answering rehearsed replies. Tibisay Lucena was at the Recall Election time a sub rector and the principal accomplice of Jorge Rodriguez in all the tricks that this one made at the time. She was duly recompensed by being promoted to full rector.
She is lying as far as I know. Only Amazonas has reported any significant lines and that is due that people are motivated there to vote for governor. In Globovision Roberto Giusti is already asking THE question: how come if through the whole day attendance was light, suddenly a few minutes before closing time people are rushing to vote and the CNE needs to keep voting centers open?
This is highly suspicious. I mean, if Tibisay Lucena were saying that in such and such state or city there was this and that problem and then they decided that in those states to keep voting stations open one extra hour, I could still buy it. But when challenged by a journalist she replied something like this: "well, you have limited rounds and we have a global picture. I know what I am talking about". And that is that, no further details!!! B.S.!!! Arrogance!!! Lucena is as usual up to all the tricks she has learned to apply for over a year now!!!
Sobella Mejias? Where are you? This is your chance to shine!!!! Or have you just become a Lucena?
6:22 PM
It did not last long. Primero Justicia has complained about the voting extension announcing that 98% of voting centers are empty and these ones should be closed right now. That there was absolutely no reason to keep them open as by law they should have been closed while the ones with people still voting can remain open as long as necessary by law.
Fraud anyone? As usual, it is the behavior of the CNE, the arrogance of its directors that is the main cause for suspicions. Do they do it on purpose or are they that arrogant?
Things are heating up.
TV, by the way finally showed up the fraud attempt in Miranda township of Carabobo. In other words, indeed, the CNE is being, charitably said, very lax with supervision. If not helping fraud all along. Even when they are winning!!!!!!! Since supposedly it is the opposition who is not voting. Go figure..... Union Radio carries interesting info on how things developed there where the burping governor behaves as your regular small town bad guy, un malandro forajido!
6:51 PM
Maybe I should change the title of this post. The day is turning out to become exciting as the evening progresses.
Sobella Mejias came out and I think I understood that she was not in agreement with the voting extension. Though as usual she tries not to engage herself in a decisive way.
As soon as she shut up, from Primero Justicia we hear that they consider that Mejias has announced that the extra voting is illegal and that they are leaving right then and there for the CNE to confront Rodriguez. I bet you that Rodriguez is going to hide (or already celebrating with Chavez that the strategy to promote abstention has worked and that 90% of municipal councilors are now in the hands of chavismo).
Now my question to all the abstention promoters. So you won, you got obviously one of the highest if not the highest abstention on Venezuelan records. But in a couple of weeks that 90% of chavista councilors will be sworn in and nobody is going, legally, to worry about it. Municipal orders will be voted and we will have to live with it.
So, dear abstentionists: what is the next move?
6:59 PM
Rodriguez on TV. Voting is closed. I suppose that Primero Justicia can go back home.
7:15 PM
I am listening to Jorge Rodriguez. He is completely outdone once again. Taking any criticism personally. Claiming that all he and the CNE did is perfect, that there is no reason whatsoever to complain.
And this used to make a living as a shrink? No wonder he switched to more lucrative activities....
Again, the arrogance of Rodriguez and the CNE is just astounding. And then they complain that so many people do not trust them? I, for one, could never trust Rodriguez. Nobody with such change of moods, so thin skinned, can be trusted in a position where there is so much pressure applied!
8:45 PM
This will probably be the last entry for today as no results will be published until the CNE gives its first official announcement. And there is no need for me to watch results that are meaningless anyway. It can wait for tomorrow. Though Sumate has made a very strong declaration accusing Rodriguez of being a liar, among other irregularities committed today by the CNE. So I might comeback for one last hurrah before going to bed as this unfolds.
However there is something I want to discuss tonight. I forgot to mention that my voting center had no "cazahuellas" whereas we had then in August and October 2004. I started thinking about it and I do not like what I am coming up with.
The "cazahuellas" are the controversial machines where an electronic finger print is taken just as in the US airports authorities do to incoming aliens. Maybe at an airport, but at a polling station? Where people who vote must dip a finger in a stinky ink? (I can smell my finger as type, in spite of thorough washing). And then, how come with so many reports of buying extra finger printing machines my voting center lost its own ones?
This is my explanation. The REAL REASON FOR THE FINGER PRINTING MACHINES is that they allow in real time the CNE to know who is voting and where. Considering the extensive data base on opposition electors courtesy to all these signatures, it is easy for the CNE to predict how the vote is doing and going (what happened on the Recall Election).
Today they knew that centers where the opposition is strong, such as my voting center, would vote lightly at most. What was worrying chavismo was the response of their own electors, the need to have a reasonable participation. Thus there was no need to monitor opposition sectors, to send needed help there to man crucial control tools. It is my theory, at this point, that cazahuellas were sent to all popular sectors, to make sure that the turn out of chavismo would be monitored real time, to give chavismo time to make corrections, to go and fetch their electors, be it from their good will or bribing them with Mercal tickets. How else can one explain that Rodriguez announced that turn out went up in the last two hours? And thus keeping up voting centers? There was no increase in Yaracuy turn out as far as I could see. So, where was that increase?
I am asking people who had cazahuellas in previous processes and not this time to write to Sumate and report it. This might be rather important, in particular if by December they force on us electronic elector registry which combined with voting machines, and cazahuellas could effectively blow away the secret of vote. You can write there, I suppose: info@sumate.org
9:00 PM
A quickie on local impressions (this is a regional blog and I must remind readers).
In Yaracuy ex governor Lapi has bemoaned the lack of voters, as he voted himself. In Carabobo beaches were full, while Valencia and the Puerto Cabello area had few voters. A foreign observer had no qualms in stating that in his opinion no more than 24% voted. In Lara I have relatives that live in a chavista area. Turn out was light, definitley lighter than last October. One realtive who is applying for some government benefit went to vote, least they checked on her voting status. She told me that she was surprised at how many of her neighbors did not bother voting and where supposedly chavista. So it did cut both ways and no wonder the Tibisay and Jorge combo where doing some last minute maneuvers.
10:05 PM
Rodriguez is speaking but he is really not saying much. That is, with 80 % something of machines reporting he still cannot advance an abstention number.... Imagine that..... And forget about an election result. But he cannot repress the data much longer so he needs to make a first bulletin so that the media can start advancing their results. As it is usual in Venezuela, the first ones to know the victors are the media and political party, the CNE (or its previous incarnations) is the last one to know.
An amusing note, Rodriguez is trying to defend the prolongation of voting hours, on emotional arguments of course, since he is violating the law. Each time Rodriguez is pressed on that issue, he replies "why don't you ask what those people feel about that?" Perfect manipulating and indecent reply from someone in his position.
I have a problem with that: there is a law.
You have from 7 AM to 4 PM to vote. Why do people feel that they can decide to waltz in at 6:30 PM to vote and why they must force the volunteers to stay so many more hours of their time? I am sorry, but Rodriguez argument is flawed. When you favor some you start affecting others and this is the end fo fairness. Sorry, but no deal Jorgito. The law states that whoever is on line at 4 PM has a right to force the voting center to remain open until every vote is cast.
On another thing. I did check the abstention in my home state, 32.8 % in October 2004. Let's see what the results are today.
One more update, sorry! 10:41 PM
On TV. Zulia governor seems happy. He obtained enough seats apparently.
Primero Justicia's Gerardo Blyde has just announced in an interview with Nitu Perez Osuna, that wherever Primero Justicia run it carried seats bigtime, even 7 out of 7 out of Chacao, and is fighting for the majority council in Sucre and a few other good resutls here and there. IN SPITE of massive abstention.
[see you tomorrow, I have had it with the Jorgito combo for the day]
Sunday, December 07, 2008
The 2008 Venezuelan results: 4 - The reason why Chavez is so upset
There has been that fake debate as to who really won the November 23 election. Chavez got more votes, but the big prizes were lost by him. You can go on and on with that (Chavez does, every cadena, reciting the list of town halls he won even if he did not). Or you can try to look for what makes Chavez so angry. One reason is quite easy to verify if you know where to look for: the opposition might be far from beating Chavez in urban popular districts, but it is growing.
Now, there must be a caveat with that observation: the popular districts where opposition vote grew in strength this time around are districts associated with more industrial and developed districts. Popular districts in more provincial cities do not show that shift, or at least not as clearly. To look at how true was the claim that the opposition is nibbling at Chavez strongholds I went to the biggest prize of them all, the Libertador district of Caracas.
Libertador is the biggest district of Caracas with roughly half of its population. As such it is the largest single municipal district of Venezuela. It is divided in parishes, the most famous ones of Venezuela perhaps as many of them have been the seat of major events, residence to famous artists or writers, and the scenery for interesting folksy events. But today as Caracas has become a huge constricted monstrosity, the parishes have long lost their charm and are simple areas where to pack folks. For the discussion required here I will divide the parishes in three kinds of districts.
There are the ones which are mostly made of “ranchos” (favellas, slums, shacks, etc…) and grouped together at the start of the table (ranked within each group from larger to smaller district). Such districts are not necessary only slums. For example Sucre has huge slums but it also includes the Catia district which is a lower middle class residential area established more than half a century ago. 23 Enero includes dozens of high rises but bad management and urban degradation has made some of these high rises barely better than glorified slums, joining in spirit the slums that grew around. We will call them R parishes, for “ranchos”.
As it is always the case in Venezuela, wealthy neighborhoods can be next to pauper districts. That reckless mix is one of the main characteristic of Venezuela urbanism. Even Altamira and Los Palos Grandes do not escape it. Thus the second group, parishes that are dominated by ranchos but that will have at least a very significant chunk occupied by middle class districts. Let’s say for the sake of the argument these lower middle to middle class districts can be between 40 and 60% of the population in these districts. We will call them RH parishes, Ranchos and Homes. This category is important for the discussion next because in such type of parishes you do have some mix of people living in the two worlds that you will not get in, say, Chacao. The hard core chavista voter in such parishes might be more influenced by non Chavez “values” than in an R parish.
Finally there is a third group of districts in Libertador where ranchos exist but are clearly in limited areas. However there is one very important thing to know about Libertador: there is no wealthy area of note. That is, upper middle class is limited to a very small area within San Bernardino. All the upper middle class of Caracas resides in Chacao, Baruta and El Hatillo districts. This is the unique feature of Libertador: it goes from underclass to middle/middle class, and that one is limited to parts of San Bernardino, El Recreo and San Pedro with a ghetto of sorts in El Paraiso. The rest is from lower middle class to indigence. This third group of districts we will call them H parishes because the majority of people live actually in a real designed homes with basic services.
Luck has it that there is enough of these parishes in each group that we can look for meaningful trends. The table below tries to describe the current political situation. The first column gives the rank of each parish according to its total vote cast (political weight, not population necessarily). The second column is the parishes divided as explained above, top the R ones, middle the RH and bottom the H (red highlight those won by Jorge Rodriguez of chavismo). Three even groups, each one including major parishes by population. The third column is the total votes cast in each parish.
The first observation is that indeed R parishes went red as expected. So did the RH parishes though we cannot fail to observe that in these parishes the PSUV had trouble reaching the 50% mark. In the H parishes the opposition fares better. Note that Catedral is a strange red glitch. Very few people do actually live in this parish which is the seat of ministries and institutions. Apparently most of its voters actually reside elsewhere and might be public employees or misiones folks that register there provisionally.
Now I have looked only at the party votes for the PSUV and the three opposition vote getters: Primero Justicia, Un Nuevo Tiempo and Accion Democratica (AD of the pre Chavez era). Although there is a significant chunk of the rest of the oppo vote it is too dispersed to study here. Taken separately none of these opposition parties looks too good in front of the PSUV which has successfully sucked in almost any “left” vote. But that would be a little bit too simple. To begin with in only 5 of the 22 parishes does the PSUV gets more than 60% of the cast votes. In fact in 10 parishes it gets LESS than 50% of the votes cast, even if Rodriguez still wins in two of these. Geographically at least the PSUV advantage is not that overwhelming.
Next I decided to invent an index of opposition penetration. To make it more difficult I only added the votes of the two more recent parties, PJ and UNT, not AD. Then I looked for which parishes the PJ plus UNT total represented at least 30% of the PSUV vote. The reason is simple, if for three chavista you have one new opposition, in that district the opposition will have a basis upon which to build up. That does not mean of course that a parish like La Pastora with an index of 51% will vote opposition tomorrow, but it means that chavismo will have to start working at keeping districts where the index I made up reaches 30%. Some of these districts cannot be taken for granted anymore by chavismo. Only 5 parishes highlighted in pink have that penetration index below 30% and can be considered as pro Chavez safe for the foreseeable future. In all the other districts the opposition has of now a political base and thus we can say that indeed, the opposition has penetrated chavistas strongholds such as La Vega or Santa Rosalia. True, small amounts but real amounts and thus a new worry for Chavez.
Let’s note in this table that UNT ALONE is able to beat the PSUV in San Pedro. Note also that I marked in bold blue all parishes where PJ or UNT reached 12.5%, that is 1 voter in 8 which indicates also a creation of a political base for the political parties that reach that number. Note that UNT reaches that feat in La Vega and Santa Rosalia, two R parishes. Let’s also observe that in Macarao and Antimano which have perhaps the highest percentage of ranchos of Libertador the PSUV still barely make it 69% and 72% respectively. True, a good victory in absolute terms but a weak one as both district should be closer to 80% than 70%. Chavez does understand the meaning of that not so slight shift.
To go further in this study I simplified the above table by removing some districts, keeping only symbolic parishes in each category. In the next table I looked only at the difference between the 2004 and 2008 voices. In 2004 the opposition abstention after the post referendum trauma gives of course a very low result for Melo, its standard bearer. But Bernal running for reelection did have a poor result too: 192 K less votes than Rodriguez two Sundays ago. Stalin Gonzalez makes a very decent score and gains MORE votes than what Jorge Rodriguez gained from Bernal result. Not surprising perhaps but when you look at the consequences on the voter advantage you realize that these gains of Stalin are significant, the more so that I only included the vote of PJ; UNT and AD, to make things more challenging for the opposition to look good. If I include the other small parties that supported Stalin, the results would look even more favorable for the opposition. In red parishes where Rodriguez gained more over Bernal than Gonzalez over Melo. And in blue the reverse.
The last two columns of that table thus represent the advantage of the chavista vote in 2004 and the advantage today of the PSUV vote over AD/PJ/UNT. For example Sucre in 2004 had a 9,5 voter advantage for chavista voters. This advantage has now been cut down dramatically to 2,7. Good, very good even in a normal democracy, but still very worrisome for chavismo.
Finally, to see if really the opposition has made inroads, albeit weak in places, we need to look at the vote variation over recent years. Something by the way that few politicians discuss as all get out with egg on their face. I have kept the same parishes as the previous table since the question is whether opposition made inroads, not how many of those they did (I just have no time to look in details at so many districts). In the chosen parishes in 2004 the opposition wins only 1. In 2006, the apogee of Chavez, Rosales manages only two. But lo and behold! in 2007 seven of these parishes voted NO, as well as the whole of Libertador! This time around the opposition manages only 3 of these districts, still better than 2004 and 2006 (reminder: the opposition wins in 8, see first table above).
The story here of course is the clear evidence of a chavista vote who said NO in 2007 but who returned to the fold, in part, in 2008. But only in part, which is what bothers so much Chavez. Why can we say that? Chavez got a staggering 658 K in 2006. But in 2007 he lost an equally staggering 40%! We can say that this is a real loss and that many chavista voters crossed the line to vote NO because the NO vote is higher than the Rosales vote of 2006, by 11%. In 2008 Stalin fails to recover the Rosales vote (-4,6%) or the NO vote, which tells us that chavistas who voted NO did not vote opposition. But did they vote for Jorge Rodriguez? Maybe not: Rodriguez also fails to recover the Chavez vote of 2006 (-27%). Of these 180 K missing votes in the Chavez camp, how many are just plain local election abstention and how many are disgusted chavistas that actively stay home?
Conclusion
In the heartland of sorts of chavismo, in the slums to low middle class neighborhoods of downtown Caracas chavismo has won but the opposition progresses in significant ways. Also a large segment of the chavista vote is not reliable anymore for Chavez. Perhaps as much as 100.000 Caracas voters will think twice before voting for Chavez in any future election. They will likely vote NO for the next amendment. Or abstain, but not vote SI. The massive support that Chavez had in Caracas at one time does not exist anymore. We knew it when we saw how many buses were required to fill up chavista rallies. But when we look at the numbers in the table above we can see that the busing bill is not going to go down any time soon.
That is why Chavez is so angry. He knows how to read electoral results and he sees that his support remains strong but is weakening. But even worse than that, the Chavez support is becoming more conditional, high winded speeches are not enough anymore to drag chavistas to the polling station: real results are finally demanded by more and more chavista voters. It is these results, these trends that can also be found in other areas, that worry sick Chavez and demand he gets reelection faculties because without the possibility of reelection he will soon become a lame duck and become just a big ineffective scarecrow.
-The end-
Now, there must be a caveat with that observation: the popular districts where opposition vote grew in strength this time around are districts associated with more industrial and developed districts. Popular districts in more provincial cities do not show that shift, or at least not as clearly. To look at how true was the claim that the opposition is nibbling at Chavez strongholds I went to the biggest prize of them all, the Libertador district of Caracas.
Libertador is the biggest district of Caracas with roughly half of its population. As such it is the largest single municipal district of Venezuela. It is divided in parishes, the most famous ones of Venezuela perhaps as many of them have been the seat of major events, residence to famous artists or writers, and the scenery for interesting folksy events. But today as Caracas has become a huge constricted monstrosity, the parishes have long lost their charm and are simple areas where to pack folks. For the discussion required here I will divide the parishes in three kinds of districts.
There are the ones which are mostly made of “ranchos” (favellas, slums, shacks, etc…) and grouped together at the start of the table (ranked within each group from larger to smaller district). Such districts are not necessary only slums. For example Sucre has huge slums but it also includes the Catia district which is a lower middle class residential area established more than half a century ago. 23 Enero includes dozens of high rises but bad management and urban degradation has made some of these high rises barely better than glorified slums, joining in spirit the slums that grew around. We will call them R parishes, for “ranchos”.
As it is always the case in Venezuela, wealthy neighborhoods can be next to pauper districts. That reckless mix is one of the main characteristic of Venezuela urbanism. Even Altamira and Los Palos Grandes do not escape it. Thus the second group, parishes that are dominated by ranchos but that will have at least a very significant chunk occupied by middle class districts. Let’s say for the sake of the argument these lower middle to middle class districts can be between 40 and 60% of the population in these districts. We will call them RH parishes, Ranchos and Homes. This category is important for the discussion next because in such type of parishes you do have some mix of people living in the two worlds that you will not get in, say, Chacao. The hard core chavista voter in such parishes might be more influenced by non Chavez “values” than in an R parish.
Finally there is a third group of districts in Libertador where ranchos exist but are clearly in limited areas. However there is one very important thing to know about Libertador: there is no wealthy area of note. That is, upper middle class is limited to a very small area within San Bernardino. All the upper middle class of Caracas resides in Chacao, Baruta and El Hatillo districts. This is the unique feature of Libertador: it goes from underclass to middle/middle class, and that one is limited to parts of San Bernardino, El Recreo and San Pedro with a ghetto of sorts in El Paraiso. The rest is from lower middle class to indigence. This third group of districts we will call them H parishes because the majority of people live actually in a real designed homes with basic services.
Luck has it that there is enough of these parishes in each group that we can look for meaningful trends. The table below tries to describe the current political situation. The first column gives the rank of each parish according to its total vote cast (political weight, not population necessarily). The second column is the parishes divided as explained above, top the R ones, middle the RH and bottom the H (red highlight those won by Jorge Rodriguez of chavismo). Three even groups, each one including major parishes by population. The third column is the total votes cast in each parish.
The first observation is that indeed R parishes went red as expected. So did the RH parishes though we cannot fail to observe that in these parishes the PSUV had trouble reaching the 50% mark. In the H parishes the opposition fares better. Note that Catedral is a strange red glitch. Very few people do actually live in this parish which is the seat of ministries and institutions. Apparently most of its voters actually reside elsewhere and might be public employees or misiones folks that register there provisionally.
Now I have looked only at the party votes for the PSUV and the three opposition vote getters: Primero Justicia, Un Nuevo Tiempo and Accion Democratica (AD of the pre Chavez era). Although there is a significant chunk of the rest of the oppo vote it is too dispersed to study here. Taken separately none of these opposition parties looks too good in front of the PSUV which has successfully sucked in almost any “left” vote. But that would be a little bit too simple. To begin with in only 5 of the 22 parishes does the PSUV gets more than 60% of the cast votes. In fact in 10 parishes it gets LESS than 50% of the votes cast, even if Rodriguez still wins in two of these. Geographically at least the PSUV advantage is not that overwhelming.
Next I decided to invent an index of opposition penetration. To make it more difficult I only added the votes of the two more recent parties, PJ and UNT, not AD. Then I looked for which parishes the PJ plus UNT total represented at least 30% of the PSUV vote. The reason is simple, if for three chavista you have one new opposition, in that district the opposition will have a basis upon which to build up. That does not mean of course that a parish like La Pastora with an index of 51% will vote opposition tomorrow, but it means that chavismo will have to start working at keeping districts where the index I made up reaches 30%. Some of these districts cannot be taken for granted anymore by chavismo. Only 5 parishes highlighted in pink have that penetration index below 30% and can be considered as pro Chavez safe for the foreseeable future. In all the other districts the opposition has of now a political base and thus we can say that indeed, the opposition has penetrated chavistas strongholds such as La Vega or Santa Rosalia. True, small amounts but real amounts and thus a new worry for Chavez.
Let’s note in this table that UNT ALONE is able to beat the PSUV in San Pedro. Note also that I marked in bold blue all parishes where PJ or UNT reached 12.5%, that is 1 voter in 8 which indicates also a creation of a political base for the political parties that reach that number. Note that UNT reaches that feat in La Vega and Santa Rosalia, two R parishes. Let’s also observe that in Macarao and Antimano which have perhaps the highest percentage of ranchos of Libertador the PSUV still barely make it 69% and 72% respectively. True, a good victory in absolute terms but a weak one as both district should be closer to 80% than 70%. Chavez does understand the meaning of that not so slight shift.
To go further in this study I simplified the above table by removing some districts, keeping only symbolic parishes in each category. In the next table I looked only at the difference between the 2004 and 2008 voices. In 2004 the opposition abstention after the post referendum trauma gives of course a very low result for Melo, its standard bearer. But Bernal running for reelection did have a poor result too: 192 K less votes than Rodriguez two Sundays ago. Stalin Gonzalez makes a very decent score and gains MORE votes than what Jorge Rodriguez gained from Bernal result. Not surprising perhaps but when you look at the consequences on the voter advantage you realize that these gains of Stalin are significant, the more so that I only included the vote of PJ; UNT and AD, to make things more challenging for the opposition to look good. If I include the other small parties that supported Stalin, the results would look even more favorable for the opposition. In red parishes where Rodriguez gained more over Bernal than Gonzalez over Melo. And in blue the reverse.
The last two columns of that table thus represent the advantage of the chavista vote in 2004 and the advantage today of the PSUV vote over AD/PJ/UNT. For example Sucre in 2004 had a 9,5 voter advantage for chavista voters. This advantage has now been cut down dramatically to 2,7. Good, very good even in a normal democracy, but still very worrisome for chavismo.
Finally, to see if really the opposition has made inroads, albeit weak in places, we need to look at the vote variation over recent years. Something by the way that few politicians discuss as all get out with egg on their face. I have kept the same parishes as the previous table since the question is whether opposition made inroads, not how many of those they did (I just have no time to look in details at so many districts). In the chosen parishes in 2004 the opposition wins only 1. In 2006, the apogee of Chavez, Rosales manages only two. But lo and behold! in 2007 seven of these parishes voted NO, as well as the whole of Libertador! This time around the opposition manages only 3 of these districts, still better than 2004 and 2006 (reminder: the opposition wins in 8, see first table above).
The story here of course is the clear evidence of a chavista vote who said NO in 2007 but who returned to the fold, in part, in 2008. But only in part, which is what bothers so much Chavez. Why can we say that? Chavez got a staggering 658 K in 2006. But in 2007 he lost an equally staggering 40%! We can say that this is a real loss and that many chavista voters crossed the line to vote NO because the NO vote is higher than the Rosales vote of 2006, by 11%. In 2008 Stalin fails to recover the Rosales vote (-4,6%) or the NO vote, which tells us that chavistas who voted NO did not vote opposition. But did they vote for Jorge Rodriguez? Maybe not: Rodriguez also fails to recover the Chavez vote of 2006 (-27%). Of these 180 K missing votes in the Chavez camp, how many are just plain local election abstention and how many are disgusted chavistas that actively stay home?
Conclusion
In the heartland of sorts of chavismo, in the slums to low middle class neighborhoods of downtown Caracas chavismo has won but the opposition progresses in significant ways. Also a large segment of the chavista vote is not reliable anymore for Chavez. Perhaps as much as 100.000 Caracas voters will think twice before voting for Chavez in any future election. They will likely vote NO for the next amendment. Or abstain, but not vote SI. The massive support that Chavez had in Caracas at one time does not exist anymore. We knew it when we saw how many buses were required to fill up chavista rallies. But when we look at the numbers in the table above we can see that the busing bill is not going to go down any time soon.
That is why Chavez is so angry. He knows how to read electoral results and he sees that his support remains strong but is weakening. But even worse than that, the Chavez support is becoming more conditional, high winded speeches are not enough anymore to drag chavistas to the polling station: real results are finally demanded by more and more chavista voters. It is these results, these trends that can also be found in other areas, that worry sick Chavez and demand he gets reelection faculties because without the possibility of reelection he will soon become a lame duck and become just a big ineffective scarecrow.
-The end-
Thursday, May 25, 2006
Little moments that make your political week
Jorge Rodriguez, former CNE head, and now Venezuela's designated electoral observer to Peru has been banned by the local CNE (JNE) from observing the second round vote between Humala and Garcia in two weeks from now.
This is quite good.
Rodriguez, the Venezuelan opposition "Bête Noire" who has made a career of protesting his innocence and impartiality (courtesy of the Venezuelan state protection state and a judicial system that would not lift the tiniest finger against him) could not pull it off in Peru. Well, he was also rather heavy handed there. See, Rodriguez, like Chavez, is the kind of rather misbalanced person that think they are always right and thus see no reason why they should discuss matters. A "socialism of the XXI century" sort of my way or the highway.
But in Peru, where thankfully there is a modicum of rule of law, people were not fooled. When they saw Rodriguez escorting and controlling Humala right and left, as Rodriguez was supposed to only observe, well, they got the idea that we in Venezuela have long known: Rodriguez is a man on a mission. Rodriguez has been named to ensure Chavez perpetration of Chavez in power. Now that is time is over his new mission was to expand Chavez power through LatAm. But it seems, like his boss, that he lacks the elemental diplomatic skills of at least emitting white lies to smoothen bitter pills.
Let’s pause a moment and savor how this arrogant shrink got slapped.
This is quite good.
Rodriguez, the Venezuelan opposition "Bête Noire" who has made a career of protesting his innocence and impartiality (courtesy of the Venezuelan state protection state and a judicial system that would not lift the tiniest finger against him) could not pull it off in Peru. Well, he was also rather heavy handed there. See, Rodriguez, like Chavez, is the kind of rather misbalanced person that think they are always right and thus see no reason why they should discuss matters. A "socialism of the XXI century" sort of my way or the highway.
But in Peru, where thankfully there is a modicum of rule of law, people were not fooled. When they saw Rodriguez escorting and controlling Humala right and left, as Rodriguez was supposed to only observe, well, they got the idea that we in Venezuela have long known: Rodriguez is a man on a mission. Rodriguez has been named to ensure Chavez perpetration of Chavez in power. Now that is time is over his new mission was to expand Chavez power through LatAm. But it seems, like his boss, that he lacks the elemental diplomatic skills of at least emitting white lies to smoothen bitter pills.
Let’s pause a moment and savor how this arrogant shrink got slapped.
Thursday, June 12, 2014
Can we get a grand unified theory of political physics for Venezuela?
There are a lot of interestingly awful things going in Venezuela right now and I may dare offer a grand unified theory. Applicable for no more than 48 hours until a new universe of crap and lies suddenly opens with new laws of political physics.
Since theories are based on facts that will be proven, or not, let's start with facts.
Today there a couple of items that are noteworthy.
The first one is that the latest hearing of Leopoldo Lopez, supposedly secret, has been recorded and has been released in two installments at CÑN. So let's start with this first item: a secret hearing was leaked and not by the Lopez people who probably had their underwear searched. It was leaked by someone inside the regime. Why?
Since theories are based on facts that will be proven, or not, let's start with facts.
Today there a couple of items that are noteworthy.
The first one is that the latest hearing of Leopoldo Lopez, supposedly secret, has been recorded and has been released in two installments at CÑN. So let's start with this first item: a secret hearing was leaked and not by the Lopez people who probably had their underwear searched. It was leaked by someone inside the regime. Why?
Friday, January 05, 2007
Chavez, Saddam and their enablers
The shrinking thinking minority of Venezuela has watched stunned as allegedly 63% of the country voted to trust everything to a single man. In exchange they think, because it is still mostly a hope, that he will provide for their needs.
To add insult to intellectual injury, Datanalisis has published a series of articles through El Nacional where an extensive poll examines the current motivations of Venezuelans. The portrait that we get from the country is not flattering as a large majority confirms that indeed, who cares about democracy as long as handouts, beer and sex keep coming. I do not know whether I will have time to go into these interesting results, but Milagros Socorro had no problem disposing of them in a scintillating article. In this mediation on power and those who enable the tyrants that keep besotting humanity, she makes no bones about the enablers that allow such horrors to strike.
What is even more remarkable is that her Op-Ed piece was published the day that Jorge Rodriguez was named vice president. If there is an enabler for the autocratic power that Chavez is building it is Jorge Rodriguez. The alleged impartial Electoral Board chief has shown himself to so impartial, so fair to both sides that he got named to the post most crucial to Chavez, the post perhaps where Chavez needs the most trusted advisor, the vice presidency, where intense devotion is a must. Amazingly some people do think that there is nothing odd about such an appointment.
To give you a sense of perspective, imagine that Justice Scalia had been named secretary of State of the US after he threw the 2000 election for Bush. Well, Rodriguez going to the Vice Presidency is much, much worse than that. Him accepting this post establishes beyond any single doubt that he had been placed at the CNE to work for Chavez, to screw the opposition. There is no doubt that Rodriguez will keep working hard, much harder than Rangel for that matter, at destroying whatever opposes Chavez. Destroying not being too strong a word. The mission of Rodriguez is to press the trigger of any gun that needs to be shot, figuratively or in real life. Rodriguez is the ultimate enabler. You may want to also keep this in mind as you read the translated article below.
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
All against the Monster
Milagros Socorro, El Nacional 01/04/2007
(original in Spanish here, highly recommended if you read Spanish)
If Saddam Hussein had been acquitted of the slaughter of 149 Shiites of the locality of Dujail, perpetrated in 1982, the knot of the rope would have fit its neck contour for the crimes and abuses of power such as the genocide that happened between 1986 and 1988, when 182,000 civilians Kurd died in massive displacements, executions and massacres of the campaign of Al Anfal, ordered by Hussein.
Associated to all the conspiracies before reaching power, Saddam Hussein also was imputable of crimes against the humanity by the war against Iran, that swallowed the life of a million beings, harvested in both sides, between 1980 and 1988.
He was accused of ordering the execution of more than 8,000 Kurds of the Barzani tribe in 1983; of inducing the bombing of chemical agents, scattered by Iraqian aviation on the locality of Halaba, to the northeast of Iraq, where 5,000 people died in the greater attack with gas against civilians of that country; of invading Kuwait and occupying it for seven months in 1990; for annihilating tens of thousand of soldiers and Shiite civilians, in 1991, when they revolted against the regime after the failure of the confrontation against Kuwait; for arresting and executing tens of Shiite leaders, between 1974 and 1999; for organizing parallel armies, networks of denunciation, apparatuses of torture and, in sum, for governing during 24 years based on terror.
INDEED, WE ARE SPEAKING OF A MONSTER. But that terrible creature, who in addition impoverished to his country and left it ruined and divided, never acted in alone. Alone he arrived at the gallows , insulted by its executioners, that in that terrible hour did not save on ridicule and taunting, but his walk until the wooden hatch which collapse would allow his last fall and the consequent break of his neck, was allowed by many factors of power that stayed out to stop his run and, on the contrary, became enablers of his excesses.
If the capital punishment were a remedy to eliminate the genocides and the dictators, the crunching of the vertebrae would have to resonate in the world like a lightning that cleaved the whole atmosphere, because crimes of those dimensions cannot be committed by the single perversity of a man. All the crimes which are credited to Hussein, which were many and which in these lines are barely outlined, were carried out because a part of the society made it possible - that part that was not a direct victim of his cruelty and his abuses- because the army followed him in his outrages, because the international community turned a blind eye, because always there was some sector benefited by his initiatives and blinded to his implacable conduct.
Now the same society that applauded his cult of personality, that raised to placards with his face and statues with his likeliness, that cheered his public appearances in which it shot to firearms and showed a faced deformed by his more than self assurance and that never ending ridicule of the bossy; that society responds to barbarism with barbarism, taking him to a darkroom and shifting the floor under him so that his hangs like a bag with his head, hanging like a melon about to roll out of a grocery bag.
IT IS CERTAIN THAT WITH THE EXECUTION OF HUSSEIN A PROBLEM IS ENDED. There will be no a constant disturbance emanating from the cell of the prisoner, the risk will have been removed that with some legal trickery, much palm greasing of scruple free hands and the support of forces of the kind that do not miss, the criminal could leave the jail and return to power, that all we have seen happen. But also it is truth that when cashing his crimes with death, society becomes an assassin, with the aggravating case that its own faults are expiated by a single individual, the condemned.
Am I advocating that instead of only sending to the gallows Hussein - and to other two who are waiting the rope treatment- it is proceeded to a mass execution of all his acolytes? No. On the contrary. I am affirming that the capital punishment does not solve anything, that it distributes the horror of the mallet in all the society and that, more importantly, exempts this one from the self examination and the reflection on all cheating and thugishness that it is able to tolerate, to support and to justify. Without a country - or a part of him, because the victims are not part of it nor are they guilty of their misfortunes- that finds arguments to give legitimacy to a dictatorship, there is no possible dictator. Without a permissive society there is no room for the sprouting of tyrants.
LET US WATCH VENEZUELA TODAY. The idiocies that have gathered the recent surveys of Datanálisis and other soundings made by international agencies do not have valid explanations. A fast reading leads us to the conclusion that a majority of the population is perfectly disposed to change the liberties and a civilized coexistence for economic prosperity. As if that were possible, as if it were not a false dilemma, as if it were not a demonstrated fact in many countries that wealth is only consequence of a productivity steeled in a frame of justice, clear rules, economic, political and social liberties. The few countries that have obtained economic advances in an authoritarian context have made it in spite of the dictatorship and not thanks to it. And it is a fact that freeing from premodern structures their growth to progress are exponential.
Our society defines itself as one of the happiest in the world, if not the happiest; and this declaration is enunciated in such days in which the deaths by homicides happen to be more than half thousand. I do not understand which is the idea of happiness of a population that knows very well that its idyll with life can end with a shotgun in the street, that it does not ignore that the economic bonanza that we enjoy is a bubble that will burst at any time on our face, because it is full of air… and not of the air of freedom that we need to create ideas and wealth.
That society that responds these surveys with so much frivolity and implausible irresponsibility will be the same one that at some future date will become furious against the incubus, whatever it is, we always have one at hand. And as it recently constituted hordes to defenestrate political parties of the past, in the same way it will lead to the bonfire, we hope in a symbolic way, those who now it celebrates in the form of inflatable dolls and for whom it holds hagiographies to praise him.
The culprit always will be another one.
A creep who deceived the masses.
Let us try not forgetting that just yesterday they swore to be delighted, totally reconciled with the idea to put all the decisions into the hands of a single man, all the powers, all the versions of history, all the pro-government parties, all the values of the democracy, all the country broken in chunks of firewood to intensify nocturnal feast. Those masses are minors delighted when putting their destiny into the hands of a tutor. Tomorrow they will turn all against the monster, finally the only culprit.
How sad. And what mediocrity.
To add insult to intellectual injury, Datanalisis has published a series of articles through El Nacional where an extensive poll examines the current motivations of Venezuelans. The portrait that we get from the country is not flattering as a large majority confirms that indeed, who cares about democracy as long as handouts, beer and sex keep coming. I do not know whether I will have time to go into these interesting results, but Milagros Socorro had no problem disposing of them in a scintillating article. In this mediation on power and those who enable the tyrants that keep besotting humanity, she makes no bones about the enablers that allow such horrors to strike.
What is even more remarkable is that her Op-Ed piece was published the day that Jorge Rodriguez was named vice president. If there is an enabler for the autocratic power that Chavez is building it is Jorge Rodriguez. The alleged impartial Electoral Board chief has shown himself to so impartial, so fair to both sides that he got named to the post most crucial to Chavez, the post perhaps where Chavez needs the most trusted advisor, the vice presidency, where intense devotion is a must. Amazingly some people do think that there is nothing odd about such an appointment.
To give you a sense of perspective, imagine that Justice Scalia had been named secretary of State of the US after he threw the 2000 election for Bush. Well, Rodriguez going to the Vice Presidency is much, much worse than that. Him accepting this post establishes beyond any single doubt that he had been placed at the CNE to work for Chavez, to screw the opposition. There is no doubt that Rodriguez will keep working hard, much harder than Rangel for that matter, at destroying whatever opposes Chavez. Destroying not being too strong a word. The mission of Rodriguez is to press the trigger of any gun that needs to be shot, figuratively or in real life. Rodriguez is the ultimate enabler. You may want to also keep this in mind as you read the translated article below.
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
All against the Monster
Milagros Socorro, El Nacional 01/04/2007
(original in Spanish here, highly recommended if you read Spanish)
If Saddam Hussein had been acquitted of the slaughter of 149 Shiites of the locality of Dujail, perpetrated in 1982, the knot of the rope would have fit its neck contour for the crimes and abuses of power such as the genocide that happened between 1986 and 1988, when 182,000 civilians Kurd died in massive displacements, executions and massacres of the campaign of Al Anfal, ordered by Hussein.
Associated to all the conspiracies before reaching power, Saddam Hussein also was imputable of crimes against the humanity by the war against Iran, that swallowed the life of a million beings, harvested in both sides, between 1980 and 1988.
He was accused of ordering the execution of more than 8,000 Kurds of the Barzani tribe in 1983; of inducing the bombing of chemical agents, scattered by Iraqian aviation on the locality of Halaba, to the northeast of Iraq, where 5,000 people died in the greater attack with gas against civilians of that country; of invading Kuwait and occupying it for seven months in 1990; for annihilating tens of thousand of soldiers and Shiite civilians, in 1991, when they revolted against the regime after the failure of the confrontation against Kuwait; for arresting and executing tens of Shiite leaders, between 1974 and 1999; for organizing parallel armies, networks of denunciation, apparatuses of torture and, in sum, for governing during 24 years based on terror.
INDEED, WE ARE SPEAKING OF A MONSTER. But that terrible creature, who in addition impoverished to his country and left it ruined and divided, never acted in alone. Alone he arrived at the gallows , insulted by its executioners, that in that terrible hour did not save on ridicule and taunting, but his walk until the wooden hatch which collapse would allow his last fall and the consequent break of his neck, was allowed by many factors of power that stayed out to stop his run and, on the contrary, became enablers of his excesses.
If the capital punishment were a remedy to eliminate the genocides and the dictators, the crunching of the vertebrae would have to resonate in the world like a lightning that cleaved the whole atmosphere, because crimes of those dimensions cannot be committed by the single perversity of a man. All the crimes which are credited to Hussein, which were many and which in these lines are barely outlined, were carried out because a part of the society made it possible - that part that was not a direct victim of his cruelty and his abuses- because the army followed him in his outrages, because the international community turned a blind eye, because always there was some sector benefited by his initiatives and blinded to his implacable conduct.
Now the same society that applauded his cult of personality, that raised to placards with his face and statues with his likeliness, that cheered his public appearances in which it shot to firearms and showed a faced deformed by his more than self assurance and that never ending ridicule of the bossy; that society responds to barbarism with barbarism, taking him to a darkroom and shifting the floor under him so that his hangs like a bag with his head, hanging like a melon about to roll out of a grocery bag.
IT IS CERTAIN THAT WITH THE EXECUTION OF HUSSEIN A PROBLEM IS ENDED. There will be no a constant disturbance emanating from the cell of the prisoner, the risk will have been removed that with some legal trickery, much palm greasing of scruple free hands and the support of forces of the kind that do not miss, the criminal could leave the jail and return to power, that all we have seen happen. But also it is truth that when cashing his crimes with death, society becomes an assassin, with the aggravating case that its own faults are expiated by a single individual, the condemned.
Am I advocating that instead of only sending to the gallows Hussein - and to other two who are waiting the rope treatment- it is proceeded to a mass execution of all his acolytes? No. On the contrary. I am affirming that the capital punishment does not solve anything, that it distributes the horror of the mallet in all the society and that, more importantly, exempts this one from the self examination and the reflection on all cheating and thugishness that it is able to tolerate, to support and to justify. Without a country - or a part of him, because the victims are not part of it nor are they guilty of their misfortunes- that finds arguments to give legitimacy to a dictatorship, there is no possible dictator. Without a permissive society there is no room for the sprouting of tyrants.
LET US WATCH VENEZUELA TODAY. The idiocies that have gathered the recent surveys of Datanálisis and other soundings made by international agencies do not have valid explanations. A fast reading leads us to the conclusion that a majority of the population is perfectly disposed to change the liberties and a civilized coexistence for economic prosperity. As if that were possible, as if it were not a false dilemma, as if it were not a demonstrated fact in many countries that wealth is only consequence of a productivity steeled in a frame of justice, clear rules, economic, political and social liberties. The few countries that have obtained economic advances in an authoritarian context have made it in spite of the dictatorship and not thanks to it. And it is a fact that freeing from premodern structures their growth to progress are exponential.
Our society defines itself as one of the happiest in the world, if not the happiest; and this declaration is enunciated in such days in which the deaths by homicides happen to be more than half thousand. I do not understand which is the idea of happiness of a population that knows very well that its idyll with life can end with a shotgun in the street, that it does not ignore that the economic bonanza that we enjoy is a bubble that will burst at any time on our face, because it is full of air… and not of the air of freedom that we need to create ideas and wealth.
That society that responds these surveys with so much frivolity and implausible irresponsibility will be the same one that at some future date will become furious against the incubus, whatever it is, we always have one at hand. And as it recently constituted hordes to defenestrate political parties of the past, in the same way it will lead to the bonfire, we hope in a symbolic way, those who now it celebrates in the form of inflatable dolls and for whom it holds hagiographies to praise him.
The culprit always will be another one.
A creep who deceived the masses.
Let us try not forgetting that just yesterday they swore to be delighted, totally reconciled with the idea to put all the decisions into the hands of a single man, all the powers, all the versions of history, all the pro-government parties, all the values of the democracy, all the country broken in chunks of firewood to intensify nocturnal feast. Those masses are minors delighted when putting their destiny into the hands of a tutor. Tomorrow they will turn all against the monster, finally the only culprit.
How sad. And what mediocrity.
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