Deliberate chaos: the first post modern cashless society. Not!

There are so many things that need to be discussed but my lifestyle, so to speak, forbids me to find the time for the blog. Yet tonight I must write to describe what is probably the most unjust, craziest, measure the regime has taken to date. And they did take a lot of those in the past.  But this one will hurt so many poor people that the mind reels at the idea on how a regime intentionally for the people has become now a regime against the people.

Today's bomb shell is the demonetization of the 100 tender in Venezuela.  Why, oh why?

Crazed Iris Varela is solving the jail problem of Venezuela by... emptying the jails

Those crazy eyes....

When Iris Varela was appointed minister for "penitentiary services" in care of "liberty-deprived citizens" in the PC lingo du jour, I thought she would really go to bat to "solve" the problems.  That is, if we assume that solving the problem means taking it away from Chavez political image.

There are two ways to do that.  The rational one which means, e.g., building fast at least some sort of provisional interment camps for low risk prisoners, and those accused of crimes not involving murder.  That way overcrowding and delinquency education is partially solved while new jails are built for the medium term solution, as long term solutions of social changes to decrease crime rates are undertaken.  She is crazy but she has the big mouth required to obtain from the regime, in election years, the funds for such endeavors.

And there is the bat-crazy way that, sure enough, she picked.

Minimum wage hike for fake prosperity

It is difficult to overstate how idiotic and useless is the recent decreed wage increase.  Never in the economic history of Venezuela was such a measure been so populist and yet so useless and so bearing of dire consequences for those who think today that they got their long due.  We can start with today's cartoon of Weil at Tal Cual to illustrate at the very least how useless the minimal wage increase is:

There you go, your new minimum wage!

Exit polls in Peru: worst case scenario becomes true!

UPDATED 2.   When I wrote yesterday about Peru I said that if Humala got more than 30% of the vote his chances for the second round would be believable.  First exit polls give him 31-32%.

Watery lies leave yours truly discombobulated as to Mars invaded by alien capitalists...

[UPDATED] Back at the ranch after a week end obsessing about Libya I must put up with Chavez starting the week with two, TWO, noon cadenas.  The one that just ended deserves reporting.

First, in what Chavez announces as a grand gesture to solve the water problems of Caracas, he started giving away a few plastic containers to some homes.  Fine, you might say, but he also announces that his objective is that a water truck shall come every week for deliveries.  In other words Chavez is describing us the future rationing of water because now, even if his un-waterlogged plan were to work, a family will need to learn to live, laundry and all, with 1,500 liters of water a week,  That is less than 400 gallons a week, toilet, laundry, drinking, cooking, moping, showering, etc.....  Divide that by, say, 6 and each family member has less than 80 gallons a week for all their needs.  And imagine the fleet of trucks required to deliver 400 gallons per home per week, in a country where inefficiency, corruption and incompetence are the norm. There you have it, official rationing of water, even as he announces the completion, some day soon, I swear, no kidding now, trust me this time, you´ll see of a new aqueduct system that was scheduled to be done 10 years ago.  Why the delay?  Do not hold your breath waiting for the explanation, rationing is so much more a socialist approach to life!

Water trucks and scarves........

At any rate yours truly found particularly offensive that Jacqueline Farias, the Caracas gauleiter, attended the inauguration of plastic tubs in popular areas with an obscene and useless scarf of expensive nature, showing that she does not have laundry problems.  What is it with Chavez cachifas that they all love to wear scarves as expensive as possible?

But since you have been very good readers I left the best for the end: Chavez speculation on how capitalism and imperialism ended civilization on Mars!  I kid you know, watch the video below.



My translation below from sec 16  to sec 32:

Unexpected collateral damage from Libya (in Russia)

Changing world orders sometimes can have amusing side effects.  Putin earlier today repeated the Qaddafi words assimilating the UN resolution to the Crusades.  Well, HIS president, Medvedev was not amused and said that choice of words was "unacceptable".

See, that is why in autocracies they only chose family to succeed them or share power with them.  When there is no blood link one never knows when the youngster may start speaking up!

This is going to be fun as other such "incidents" are sure to happen here and there.....

The Venezuela that Chavez will leave us (or to himself for that matter): 12 years after

Herr, lehre doch mich,
dass ein Ende mit mir haben muss,
und mein Leben ein Ziel hat,
und ich davon muss. (1)

The Chavez regime is finally reaching an end, transition has started, regardless of the fact that today it reaches 12 years.

Transition to where, we do not know. How long a transition is any one's guess.  Maybe we are returning to democracy and the rule of law, or maybe toward the final Myanmarization of Venezuela with a Chavez II holding on, but a hold over a very different country as the one we used to know in 1998.  The country that either us or Chavez will inherit is a country with little prospects, wasted time, squandered opportunities and a mess.  I suppose that there are those who may think that it would be poetic justice for Chavez to stay over for a few more years and face the mess he created.  But autocrats do not function that way and I doubt that Chavez at this point is able to comprehend the extent of the damage he has inflicted on our country.  And even less able to care (ref: the movie "the last days" if you do not get the psychology behind this comment).

So what is the country we are getting after 12 years?  Before we can even attempt to think about what to do to start fixing up the disaster upon us we need to understand our inheritance.  Below I try to be brief and split the description in different areas without any particular order.

Chavez and his toy soldiers

While the opposition organize its meager primaries, what goes on within chavismo and Chavez sick mind?  More barely contained violence, as if that small display of democracy was already too much to stand for the autocrat Fidel wanna-be.  His Alo Presidente of today was in full military regalia with many of his toy soldiers in front of him.  I say "toy soldier" on purpose because according to Chavez we had to wait for the Cubans to come to teach us how to repair radios in tanks, store compasses and other such garbage.  Does he really believe what he says?  And anyway, what war in what past year is he getting ready to fight?

The fact of the matter is that his nonsense today, his attacks on General Rivero and his bad rerun of April 13 and 19 only indicate one thing: he is scared of his own army!  Be it because he thinks it will turn against him or because it is really that incompetent, it does not matter.  No wonder he decided to do the only things he knows to do: try to scare people with his toy army and buy loyalty at any price.  Thus he gave all officers in the army a pay raise of 40%.  We wonder how will it get paid, but that is another story. 

PS: Incidentally what will those civilians who only get a 25% pay raise this year think?  Never mind that they got it in two installments, the second portion in September, while the military apparently will get it in one chunk.  Another hint that Chavez does not care about electoral results to retain his office?  I have a friend that reports on Alo Presidente as Alo Delincuente.  She was particularly on target today.

Two Venezuelan realities: students with a cause and fattening generals

Early this week while in Caracas I visited the students on hunger strike, in front of the offices of the OAS. I did not want to write anything about that because, to tell you the truth I do not know how to broach the subject. I have too much respect for these kids to write lightly about them. In fact, my visit was made further embarrassing as I went after a diner date with a friend. We decided to visit the place around 10 PM. It was quiet and strangely peaceful. No apparent security, just an ambulance from the city of Baruta. The kids were laying on portable beds, not talking much (they need to preserve their energy). What seemed to be small groups of friends and relatives were hanging around, speaking softly, not wanting to disturb. Needless to say that I felt impressed and embarrassed, not able to find a word to try to even express my admiration for them even though I am not sure about the timing of their action.

What do they want? Nothing much really, that the government allows the Inter American Court to make a visit to Venezuela to gather data about violations of Human Rights. The Chavez administration is adamant in refusing such a visit which simply confirms that they have things to hide. The problem here is that there seems to be no solution in sight. The government mocks the attempt although they finally caved in on another hunger striker, near death, because he demanded justice for his property illegally seized by the state. Eventually OAS secretary Insulza sent a lame letter where he talked to the students as kids without understanding of adults things. As a consequence it seems that the hunger strike will go further and faster. What Insulza should have done is to write a letter directly to Chavez asking him to solve the issue and not allow to lay the blame on the OAS.

It is truly fascinating that after ten years of cheap materialism promoted by Chavez the result is similar as those observed in other countries suffering similar fates: the idealist and courageous youth is the one opposing the regime. For memory I will point out that I have yet to see revolutionary chavista students go on an hunger strike in front of the US embassy to demand the end of the Iraq war or the Cuban embargo. As a matter of fact, the few students that chavismo was able to produce in 2007 to counter the rising dissident movement are now benefiting from comfortable political jobs in the government, without any replacement worth noticing. On the other side every year the opposition student movement shows an incredible power of renewal, in ideas as well as in leadership.

So, you may wonder, why do I write about these brave kids today? Because Chavez provided me the inspiration with a cadena a few minutes ago. The cadena was about a military promotion ceremony, at worthless event since promotions are now decided by Chavez office with the main parameter being the perceived loyalty to the regime. I watched the first minute and taped it fast on my TiVo.

The ceremony stated with a fat general marching towards Chavez. Then, once he took position in front he spoke the following words:

Patria Socialsimo o muerte [Without a mic we can see Chavez uttering the word "veneceremos"] Mi comandante en jefe buensa noches. Presente en formacion 1800 combatientes revolucionarios, socialistas, anti imperialistas para el acto con motivo delos ascensos.....

Fatherland, socialism or death. [We shall win], My commander in chief good evening. Here in military formation 1,800 revolutionary, socialist and anti imperialist fighters, for the ceremony of promotion....

I was going to put the name of the fat military speaking those words, sporting the most ridiculous yellow ribbon with a je ne sais quoi of Easter Egg look. After all, too many of them have acquired the same mind pattern, the result of a decade of military corruption, financial and moral. The TV picture I show here is an indictment of how ridiculous the Venezuelan army has become, the only truly fit officer as far as I can tell being from the navy disappearing behind the Easter Egg. Fitter perhaps but equally willing to present this obscene masquerade of tacky adulation.

Thus you can see the two extremes that ten years of chavismo have produced. On one side you have the revolutionary nouveau riche, be they fat sycophantic military or the now on the run bankers who made 100 of million of dollars through government contracts in half a decade. Usually equally fat.

And on the other side the worth of the country, the new political conscious and idealistic class emerging from the embers of the middle class that Chavez has been diligently trying to destroy for the last decade. A group noble enough that some are willing to offer themselves for their goals and ideals.

-The end-

Presidential budget in Venezuela

I was meaning to write about it but in France Center left paper Le Monde beat me to it.

In next year budget, the Miraflores Palace budget increases by, hold yourself tight, 638%!

Meanwhile the education budget goes down, but the weapon purchase budget seems to make it out OK.

Economic crisis Chavez style. Close to delirium as they stop any pretense.....

Meanwhile the word, astounded, observes the Mugabization of Venezuela.

UPDATE: some of you complain that I am forcing you to read French. Fear not, El Pais of Madrid also notices the immoral budget increase for Chavez own needs. In Spanish. The author, Maye Primera, takes an exquisite pleasure at contrasting the "3 minute shower" speech of Chavez with the reality of his budget asking 84,000 USD of toiletries. I suppose that amount will include "dry shampoo"?

-The end-

When the Caracas Metro is just a tinker toy for some chavista apparatchik

Some days when I see how out of touch with the common folk chavismo is becoming I get my hopes up. Surely, once looting is considered, a government whose plans for the country cannot go beyond Mercal and free aspirin cannot last that long. The case I have at hand is a double fold treat for you: corrupt incompetents at the Caracas Subway and plain corruption at the Caracas cable car (but that for a following post).

You will forgive me if I go into a very long post but the details are important here as Caracas will have to live forever with the consequences.

How the design of Metro Line 5 is changed as the crisis keeps evolving?

The Caracas subway system is in dire need of expansion, the more so that the centralization policies of Chavez are going to keep increasing the population of Caracas out of any measure. It is to be noted that in 10 years of rule Chavez has only inaugurated a short segment of 3 metro stations, all duly planned and contracted before he took office. We can also count an extension of Line 3 with 4 stations still not working fully (I think one is not open at all). For the record the other 38 stations were opened by 4 presidents, that is, an average of 9 stations by 5 year term, and all of these presidents with way less resources than Chavez has had.

But I am not going to get into the details on how incompetent chavismo has been in managing and building public transportation in Caracas and its far distant suburbia: I would need a full blog devoted to the topic. Instead, the president of Caracas Metro since last January, Claudio Farias, gave us this week a perfect symbol on all that is wrong with chavismo, as it is getting into its 11th year or "planification".

The work on line 5 has been advancing slowly. So slowly in fact that now that chavismo has run out of money. Seeing that Caracas is not voting for Chavez anymore, he is looking for ways to save money and screw us along the road. One simple way to do that is to remove two subway stations out of line 5.

Now, you can argue that well, we are in time of crisis, these stations could be built later, it is more important to do at least the line, and whatever other reasons as we find in countries even slightly less dysfunctional than Venezuela. But when you read the words of Claudio Farias you know that nothing of the sort was considered, that some late night in Miraflores, desperately looking for corners to cut, Chavez and his minions just decided to cut off two metro stations. I am putting the words in Spanish first, with the (sic) added by El Universal and then my translation.

"La línea 5 ha sufrido quizás un retraso. Pero las estamos replanteando, pues nos parece que es una línea que no tiene ningún sentido"; "Esa es una línea que beneficia a la oligarquía (...) Las Mercedes, hermano, la Principal de Las Mercedes va a tener dos estaciones en la propuesta cuando todo el mundo que va a Las Mercedes va (sic) en su carro a los restaurantes. ¿Se necesita que la Principal de Las Mercedes tenga dos estaciones? Ni siquiera, La Hoyada y Capitolio"; "La estación Bello Campo que está al lado del Gustavo Herrera. ¿A quién beneficia esa estación cuando tiene al lado Chacao y Altamira? Nosotros estamos planteando que esa estación sea eliminada. Esa estación no beneficiaría a nadie, en lo absoluto. Ya se hizo el estudio".

“Line 5 may have suffered a delay [talk about an understatement!]. But we are questioning it, because it seems to us that this line makes no sense”; “This is a line that benefits the oligarchy (…) Las Mercedes, brother, the Principal [avenue] of Las Mercedes is going to have two stops in the proposal when every one that goes to Las Mercedes go (sic) in his car to the restaurants. Does La Principal de Las Mercedes need two stations? Not even La Hoyada and Capitolio.”; “The Bello Campo Station that is next to the Gustavo Herrera [famous high school] who does it benefit when it has nearby Chacao and Altamira? We want this station to be eliminated. This station will benefit no one, absolutely. We have done the study” [a study which is nowhere to be found by the way]

There is so much wrong in this that feeble minds would be at a loss as to where to start. But I know my history, I know how traffic is in Caracas and I know how to use the Metro even if it has become an exercise I avoid as much as possible, if anythign for the Ali Primera music forced on us.



The first thing that Claudio misses is the original purpose of Line 5 , probably already under planning by the time Chavez was preparing his 1992 coup. Then Claudio was in all likelihood a small time neighborhood thug, a time from which he kept his speech ways. If you look at the Subway map above you will notice immediately the East West direction, to which lateral valleys are connected. The geology dictates that but the uncontrolled and unplanned growth makes this natural handicap a disaster. Note: line 5 is line 4 on this "official map" but chavismo loves to change names and numbers.

Soon after Line 1 was was opened there was an interesting phenomenon observed: whenever an "accident" happened in the Metro, everybody was late to work or for home. That is, a single East West line was very vulnerable to, say, a suicide, and all Caracas would be affected. Soon it became obvious that Line 1 was insufficient and that is when plans for line 5 and a still distant third parallel line were accelerated. It might seem crazy in a way to make so many parallel lines but the human circulation justifies them perfectly well. If you doubt me just drive around Caracas between 4 and 7 PM, East West, or North South blocked by East West, and get back to me.

The second thing is that Claudio totally misses the structure of the neighborhood where he decided to suppress a station. This is better explained looking at the map below lifted from El Nacional.


Claudio might be Metro director but he obviously does not take the subway to go home at night, and certainly not through almost any of the stations featured in this graph.

First, why Bello Campo should not be closed

True, Bello Campo RIGHT NOW would not be a major Caracas station, but that does not mean it is not important contrary to what our Amateur Metro president thinks. Chacao is another extremely busy station at rush hour and Bello Campo would be a nice option for the harassed office workers. And Bello Campo is close from a major shopping Mall and other commercial areas that depend on Chacao station, causing a lot of traffic congestion. Last but not least Bello Campo is one of the few neighborhoods in an area where there is possible business development that would happen for sure once a subway station is built, releasing the pressure on small areas like historical Chacao to survive as inhabited areas. Not to mention that Bello Campo would be next door to a lower class wedge between Altamira and Bello Campo! Are those not supposed to be chavista voters?

Chacaito Las Mercedes now

• Chacaito is the busiest station of the area, maybe Caracas, because form there leave all the buses that go South, to Middle Class Prados del Este as well as to Lower Class Las Minas. As such the Chacaito area is usually collapsed half of the day by buses parked in double and triple file.
• One or two of the Las Mercedes stations will pick up these bus traffic leaving Chacaito only for bus routes for Northern areas of Caracas or out of Caracas.
• If Las Mercedesi s eliminated, one of the arguments of Claudio falls down because the distance between Bello Monte and Tamanaco would be simply too long.
• Also the Principal de Las Mercedes is long enough to deserve two stations. Depending on where exactly the station is located the La Hoyada Capitolio dimwit statement falls flat on its face.
• South of Chacaito there is a lot of business and commerce and a Las Mercedes station would be a nice option for the folks working there, further decongesting Chacaito.
  

And more other arguemtns that I coudl write, but I have saved for the end the utter idiocy of Claudio argument.

He says that the only folks that go Las Mercedes are rich people hitting the dining/party circuit. I cannot think of a crassest statement, of a more horrifying nouveau-riche-let-them-eat- cake reason. What about all the waiters, the cooks, the bartenders, the garbage collectors, the sales clerk, etc, etc that work in Las Mercedes? Are they not entitled to a fast subway ride too?

What we see here is a got-fat Claudio Farias who now has a chauffeur, a Metro assigned car and possibly body guards and even a police or two on motorbikes stopping traffic to let him go through while the hoi poloi watches. This is how low the chavismo servants have fallen, how far from the needs of the people. Surely they will notice, won't they?

Note on Farias. He used to work with Diosdado Cabello who brought him to the Metro once he was unseated in Miranda State. He is a nobody but he is very willing to do all the dirty work and to suck up wherever it is needed. If we consider the amount of corruption reports on the Cabello tenure at Miranda's helm we can also assume that Claudio is a a "trusted" adviser of Cabello and thus a corrupt individual. The Internet on a quick glance reveals the following:

He used to be a Metro employee, even holding a station management, according to pro Chavez ABN. The lack of details leaves us to think that he went as far as he would have gone, thus not great management prospect to direct the Metro alone. But let's assume that I am wrong.

His mission is clear: further introduce politics into the Metro, as for example this inauguration of a Che Guevara center for Metro employees.

His initial promises that all would be better came to a crash landing within three months of his tenure. Apparently there is a witch hunt inside the Metro where people not solidly rojo-rojito are removed, and it started with his arrival.

His mismanagement goes from pretending to sign contracts that no one is clear about to organize the system in such an unsafe way that 80 Metro depending bus burnt a few days ago. Some people rumor that the fire was deliberate because these stocked bus were out of service due to very deficient maintenance and they wanted to avoid an inquiry. Not to mention possible juicy commissions to replace these buses. Note that he might have done that himself, but clearly he is not controlling his subordinates.

So you see it by yourself, the quality of public servants that Chavez is imposing on us, the kind of people that are making decisions about the future of Caracas. Guess who will pay the bills later? Not them, I can assure you, comfortably ensconced far from where justice can reach them.

-The end-

The Venezuela 2009 vote I: you call this an electoral campaign?

So Chavez in his immense hubris, and his fear of leaving office someday, decided to launch the country in yet another mad electoral contest. He has on his side all the power of the state whereas the other side at best can have the power of reason and ethics, which they do not use that well anyway.

I have covered previous elections in as much in detail as I could, but this one, well, not only I did not have the heart to cover but I did not have much time for it anyway. But I suppose that I must cover it at some point as I am running out of excuses. After all, what better excuse to avoid discussing the grossness of our political landscape than to lament a synagogue attack? Thus today I will offer you my view on the campaign and tomorrow my electoral predictions.

The Chavez camp

What can I say that has not been said already? Well, at least we can point out that it is worse than ever.

The CNE partiality has been worse than ever.

All the electoral trickery from chavismo has been accepted, from the illegal timetable to the referendum question which hides what cannot be hidden. In fact the very worst violation of all is that the referendum question allows the National Assembly to rewrite as it pleases 5, FIVE, articles of the constitution AFTER the vote. That is right, we are going to vote on amending 5 articles and WE DO NOT KNOW what the text of the new articles will be. The CNE apparently has no problems with that.

The use and abuse of state power has been worse than ever.

The propaganda blitz for the SI (even in Globovision!!) has left far behind the extensive campaigning of last fall with distribution of washers and refrigerators included. SI posters, stickers, t-shorts are hurting our eyes even though in January the government has tried to soften the edges by including some green pastel and yellow to its color schemes. This week at 11 AM I was stuck in traffic in San Felipe, where there is normally very little traffic, because public employees were marching for the SI in main street. In fact all chavistas elected last November have not started to rule their new territory: they were conscripted from the start to campaign for the reelection. They were even asked to give one day salary to the SI camp…. But for me the most insulting moment was to find SI advertisement in my Gmail page. Who paid for that? What kind of anti US revolution advertises in the most globalized tool of the world?

The idiocy of some of the Chavez supporters has been worse than ever.

I am not going to go into the details on how ridiculous the chavista arguments are to justify the eternal reelection amendment. Even Sweden was called to help because, well, the Prime minister can be voted in as long as people wanted. Of course in that particular example they forgot to mention that Olof Palme was assassinated going to the movies, on foot, because the social compact of Sweden is, well, very different from the one in Venezuela, allowing for a long term Prime Minister to live without body guards. Chavez has more on duty body guards than there are members of the Swedish parliament… If someday as a sitting president Chavez goes to the Sambil movies with a couple of body guards only then maybe I might not object so much to eternal reelection.

However there was a particularly offensive moment: when Robert Serra in an interview to El Nacional declared that he was fine in trusting his entire future to Chavez. That is right, a freshly graduated student of the chavismo camp (who I am told by UCAB friends has already body guards) thinks it is fine to surrender your thinking process to a single man for life. Some pearls of his January 25 interview:

-- [...]Chavez is the fatherland...

--Something positive with the Venezuelan opposition? --Nothing

--The revolution mistake? --Lack of authority in letting the opposition do as it pleases.

--What movies do you chose when you go out? --I have no time to go. All my mind and my time are always dedicated to the revolution. [sic]

--Do you remember how long was the president speech January 13? --Seven hours and a half.

--And the one of Barack Obama? --I did not listen to it but I believe it was shorter because he had nothing to say in front of all the achievements that Chavez had to show.

--Would you obey any order from Hugo Chavez? --Any one, as a faithful soldier.

--What would happen to Venezuela if Hugo Chavez loses the amendment [vote]? --Sadness for the revolution and its opposition… Chavez is the only guarantee for peace in Venezuela.

There you have it, the intellectual content of the SI campaign in full. No wonder the opposition students can stir the masses, produce crop after crop of leaders while chavismo student body leaders seem to be as recycled as the cabinet seats of chavismo.

Well open up your mind and see like me
Open up your plans and damn you’re free

The opposition camp

The opposition started with a major handicap: it was flat broke after the expensive fall campaign for mayors and governors. Chavez does not have this problem. Could be one of the explanations of why Chavez moved so fast on what he perceived as a meager electoral success of November 23.

However the opposition had a major advantage form the start: the moral high ground. No matter what the campaign of Chavez tried to pull, the fact remains that the reelection of Chavez was refused in 2007 and people know it. In fact numbers were negative enough for Chavez that he was forced in January to include everyone as benefiting of the reelection. On that and his absurd campaign he managed to improve his polls until apparently the race became too close to call one week before the vote (more in next post).

But the opposition did get some mileage on the cheap form this stunning change of Chavez who until December refused to extend reelection to anyone but himself.

The only bright light in the opposition campaign is the demonstration that a new generation of student leaders, perhaps even brighter than the 2007 one, has come to the front. Folks like David Smolanski are more articulate than the Guevara or Goicochea of the 2007 duel. And again the students offer the intellectual substrate for the opposition campaign that the politicians seem unable to provide.

As such the opposition campaign had to be low key, few posters, the TV advertisement financed by the CNE. It is more of a door to door affair with the students offering the street action that seems to terrify Chavez who was not afraid to order the best quality tear gas to repress students. That latest abuses of chavismo seems to have backfired badly as the growing tendency of the SI in polls seems to have brutally stopped forcing suddenly a new tender and loving Chavez, willing to talk on the phone with ex student leader Stalin Gonzalez.

Listen to the music of the moment people, dance and sing
We’re just one big family

Conclusion

The opposition started ahead. The massive campaign of Chavez was able to impress a few (though polls are weary of a “scare” factor strong enough this time to obscure results). But the violence of chavismo in mid January was too much for some and the favorable trend for the SI seems to have stopped just as polls were getting even. A such serious pollsters advice, the election is too close to call (and I agree as you will read in next post).

However one thing is absolutely certain, this election and its brief campaign will divide Venezuelans more than ever. Those who will vote SI will vote deliberately for a paternalist state where the only beneficiaries will be those who obey Chavez, as Robert Serra so eloquently tells us. They also vote for violence and accept Chavez blackmail. I cannot speculate on what motivates such people since I am allergic to any form of militaristic undue authority, of failed leadership who retains its appeal only on emotions. I suppose that chavistas have their reason besides what I detailed a few weeks ago, and at least I dearly hope so.

And yet, the election again will not solve anything. Chavez will not get the crushing and definitive victory that has eluded him in ten years (in his mind he needs 80% of the vote to feel at peace, I suppose). But the opposition will probably not get the 10% margin victory it needs to weaken decisively Chavez and bring back more democratic manners in Venezuela, such as allowing opposition governors and mayors to fulfill their electoral promises.

Again we will vote and nothing will be settled while chavismo corruption will keep bleeding the country. However this will be the last time chavismo can cruise to victory relatively easy because the economic crisis coming will sorely test the sustainability of chavismo populism. The final battle cannot be that far.

In other words, we need to forget about Chavez threats, about our anxiety and go and vote NO as every single vote, even if we lose, will be a stab at Chavez ego.

So please don’t, there is no need
There is no need to complicate
‘Cause our time is short
This is, this is, this is our fate

-The end-

Of the ocasional uselessness of new constitutions: The doomed new Bolivian Constitution

Today Bolivia voted on a new constitution which as far as I am concerned is destined to fail as badly as the Venezuelan one of 1999. The reason is very simple: a constitution which is imposed by a majority over a reluctant minority cannot create a democratic state since it starts by denying the rights of the minority. It does not matter how many elections are held, how many referendums are called, as long as the constitution does not genuinely reflect the notion the country has of itself it will not succeed. A constitution is not a law, it is the framework used to make laws. If you cannot agree on the framework, you are less likely to agree with the laws made through it.

The US constitution of 1787 succeeded (for all the crisis it suffered) because it reflected what the “founding fathers” thought of what the US was and should be: a federal state where freedom of expression and of religion should always be guaranteed. It was a social pact, a minimum upon which all agreed, from Maine to Georgia. Its major failing which led to the Civil War came because the rights of the slave minority were ignored. Even though the slaves had little chance on their own to change the bad hand dealt to them, their existence corroded enough the majority cohesion that the crisis came. Now that constitution has allowed Obama to reach power and turn a final symbolic page on this issue.

The French constitution of 1958 succeeded because the country agreed that the executive should be a stronger institution and that the quarrelsome parliamentary system inherited from 1870 was exhausted. Just as the 1870 system succeeded, at least until WW2, because it reflected the consensus that France should never be open again to the rise of a strong man to rule its future. The weak executive was reinforced by the strong parliament as needed during survival crisis such as WW1; but eventually it failed because it was unable to adapt to changing historical conditions when clarity of purpose was needed to terminate the colonial period and modernize France.

One can write similar paeans to successful constitution such as the recent ones in Spain, Germany or older systems such as the English one. But one can also write about constitutions that failed even in democratic countries as the rights of minorities, or even majorities, was eventually denied. It is the story of most constitutions in Latin America, including the failure of Chile’s in the 70ies when Allende refused to understand that he never got 50% of the popular vote and yet pretended to rule as if he had won that vote share. The Venezuelan one of 1961 succeeded at first because it was designed to guarantee the right of the minority to reach power eventually. That is how Chavez won in 1998. But it also failed in the end because it could never quite break with a “tradition” of strong man, even if they were granted only 5 years to rule.

The Venezuelan constitution of 1999 has already failed as proven by Chavez himself. In spite of being the promoter of the new charter he has tried to modify it enormously in 2007 and he now tries to debase it by creating an executive elite that enjoys enough access to power to remain in office forever. It was doomed from the start when the Constituent Assembly of 1999 had 97% of its seats representing only 60% of the population. The 40% that did not make it to that assembly never accepted its result and if today they defend the 1999 charter it is because the modifications proposed by Chavez ensure that the amended document will serve only the 30% or less that serve Chavez by sheer sycophancy or plain material interest.

I do not know the details of the Bolivian new constitution that is approved today. I am sure that it carries very valid redress measures for a Native American majority that has been abused since BEFORE the Spaniards reached Bolivia as the Inca was already an imperial master. The vote in Bolivia is clear: the new constitution which was already drafted by violating the conditions with which it was supposed to be established is receiving a strong approval in half the country and a strong rejection in the other half. Bolivia is not yet at the breaking point but today it is making a step further towards that possibility. True, Morales and the Media Luna leaders have demonstrated that at the brink of disaster they were able to hammer an agreement of sorts, but that is not the way a constitution is drawn. The agreement that allowed for today’s vote was not a consensus, it was a “let’s get over with this and move on to something else”, implicitly acknowledging on both sides that the constitution was just an excuse of a larger power struggle.

As such I predict that today’s voted paper will be just another one of the many that Bolivia got, just as the 1999 in Venezuela is already an exhausted one.

P.D.

Amazingly Bolivia emitted results as early as 7 PM Venezuelan time. On February 15, with the voting set to last until 6 PM I am pretty sure that we will not get a single result until midnight or even later. May I remind readers that WE STILL DO NOT HAVE THE FINAL RESULT OF THE 2007 REFERENDUM?



-The end-

Yet another cadena from hell: the inhumane Chavez

Huge rains have fallen this afternoon over Caracas and some areas of the country. Traffic is collapsed everywhere; landslides are happening; bridges are washed away.

What does Chavez do in front of the emergency? He calls a cadena to discuss a joint project of light bulbs with Vietnam, with cardboard models and all. Half of the country is washed away, half of the country is in need to listen to the radio to know ways to escape to return home from a hellish commute, and all they find is Chavez doing electoral politicking with a joint project with Vietnam, not even an inauguration. Chavez desperately trying to scrap a few more votes while people might be watching their home slide into oblivion.

It is hard to imagine a better example of abuse of the media by Chavez, who even has the nerve to say that "we are aware of some problems but we are taking care of them" and keep going on with his cadena as if nothing, a cadena that no one gives a fuck about. That is correct, if right now you are stuck in the worse traffic of your life, rain everywhere, and that mountain on the side looming quite dangerous as increasing rivulets of water keep coming down at you, the only thing you can hear, ON ANY radio station, is Chavez bullshitting about Vietnam and probably as usual rewriting history.

And that happened in 1999, and it happened about 4 years ago when someone drowned in the middle of Caracas main highway while Chavez was once again on cadena. You think the man would learn. You think that someone in his entourage would suggest to tape the damned cadena and play it later. But no. The supreme narcissistic creep, the most egotistical Venezuelan alive, keeps going on with his glory, giving a fuck about the rest of the country, be it his opposition stuck in traffic or his poor devotees whose shacks perilously clinging on the hills are about to slide down in a tide of mud.

What will it take for some of Chavez followers to realize that the guy only thinks of himself and that they are simply used for his personal goals?

-The end-

From this side of the yucky news

Yesterday and today I had to concentrate on an oncoming trip to Valencia for business. Tonight I tried to catch on the news and I am not pleased. Not to mention my own news.

Looting on the road

I did the round trip to Valencia today. Depending from the hour of day I chose either the Nirgua-Bejuma road to reach South Valencia or the Moron road to reach the Northern suburbs. 10 years ago I used to like the Moron option. The highway from Morn to Valencia has some spectacular views and the Moron San Felipe road was a reasonable two lanes road with tolerable traffic but rolling through a sometimes impossible green country side. Now I only take that road when I need to avoid South Valencia rush hour. Today I had to go both ways through Moron.

On the way in, there was a jam that lasted for about 15 minutes until we could start again. A truck carrying cement bags had overturned and we had to wait until the looters had finished their work to be able to pass again. There was no rescue crew or nothing when I went by, just a Nazional Guard that did the best he could to make sure the looters did not fight among themselves and making sure they would not be run over by the cars waiting in line patiently.

On my return trip same thing. Except this time it took longer, I had to turn my car off: the tows had arrived and they were moving the big truck. When I arrived to the spot I could see that it had also been looted by the natives before the security and tows could operate.

Interesting detail: it was barely a mile from the morning "incident". Coincidence?

Ten years of Chaevz rule to help the people and the only thing we have become is a nation of organized looters where authorities must wait for the looting to be done before they can rescue the victims.

The Venezuelan satellite

Apparently yesterday Venezuela became the owner of a communication satellite. It is Chinese made, it is Chinese controlled, it is Chinese technology. It is Venezuelan dollars just to see Chavez Ooooh and Aaaah with his friend Evo Morales. Did Evo pay for his trip to watch this thing, by the way?

The satellite is called, of course, Simon Bolivar. We know the Chinese are doing all the job because chavista engineers are unable to keep electricity running in Venezuela. Chavista engineers are unable to keep a serviceable Internet system. Chavista engineers are unable to provide us with a regular supply of clean water. Chavista engineers are unable to provide us with pot hole free roads. And we are expected to believe that chavista engineers can design and control a satellite?

Chavez is upset because he thinks that the independent media did not treat the satellite launch as a national holiday. What was in for the Venezuelan people to celebrate? That VTV will get high definition so that Chavez propaganda programs come to you in high definition? So, in sheer spite, he announces that he wants to establish in Venezuela a satellite factory. Why not? We export nothing but oil, why not try to export satellites? What do you say Hugo? A dozen a week?

Sometimes I really, really wonder what link with reality Chavez still has.....

Buying warm clothing from Bolivia

I suppose that in fact I should not bother wondering about Chavez contact with reality: since Bolivia was affected in its favorable customs to the US, Venezuela will buy 200 million USD worth of textile to Bolivia. Has anyone wondered what kind of textile was Bolivia selling to the US? Nice, light, breezy tropical textiles or the warmer, multicolored or not, sort sold for winter clothing? And what about promoting Venezuela own textile industry through the socialist cooperatives? How many of them are going to go bust as the state promotes cheap subsidized Bolivian textile to promote the wonders of ALBA?

But it gets better: in Bolivia they do not believe in this agreement. They point out justly that the Venezuelan market bears no comparison with the US market (Florida GDP is already bigger than Venezuela). Folks also point out that all sorts of wonderful economic joint ventures between Venezuela and Bolivia have amounedt to nothing, that Venezuela promises much but delivers little. Imagine that!!!!!

I wonder if overturned trucks carrying Bolivian clothing will also be looted......

Obamathon

Trying to find some news that if not good is at least not stupid I turn my eyes to the US. And I fail.

Trying to shore up support as polls are starting to tighten some, bringing Obama's result closer to a potential Bradley percentile, he decided to spend a huge wad of money to buy himself a cadena. That is right, Obama bought a simultaneous broadcast of a 30 minute infomercial on 3 major US networks.

Obama's infomercial aired at 8 p.m. EDT on CBS, NBC, and Fox, plus on cable on MSNBC, the Spanish-language Univision, and two networks targeted to African-American viewers, BET and TV One.

Now, Obama should take lessons from Chavez when he becomes president: Chavez gets ALL TV stations, ALL radio stations, ALL OVER THE COUNTRY for as long as he wants, SIMULTANEOUSLY, to say whatever he wants, to attack whomever he chooses, without the right of replica from the aggressed parties, AND he does not pay a penny for it.

I must admit that now that I was warming up to Obama that he pulls such a cheap stunt just because his campaign war chest if full of cash bothers me, bad. I mean, if he had done it 2-3 weeks ago, even better at convention time (he already had the cash then) I could understand. That is what Perot did in his time. But now, not even a week before election? I wonder if Hillary would have done such infomercial........

Anyway, good thing that the US got the faintest of hints as to what we must endure here day in and day out. The satellite launch never ending cadena apparently was quite something in the genre.


-The end-

Rogues gone bust

This delicious title for a Washington Post Editorial deserves a full publication below. ¡A cada cochino le toca su sabado!

-------------
U.S. adversaries were delighted by the economic crisis -- until it affected the price of oil.

A few weeks ago, the leaders of Russia, Iran and Venezuela were gloating gleefully that the financial crisis would depose the United States as the world's leading power. Yet as the price of oil dropped below $65 last week -- or less than half its peak price last summer -- it was looking more likely that global economic turmoil would produce a quite different result: the substantial weakening of those countries' challenge to U.S. interests in Europe, the Middle East and Latin America.

Unless oil prices quickly recover, Venezuela's Hugo Chávez and Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are likely to face even tougher domestic economic challenges in 2009 than the next U.S. president. According to independent estimates, both countries need an average oil price of up to $95 a barrel to fund the populist subsidies and social programs they have launched in recent years -- not to mention billions of dollars in arms purchases from Russia. Venezuela has been furiously importing food to fill empty shop shelves, while Iran heavily subsidizes domestic fuel. Even if Mr. Chávez and Mr. Ahmadinejad manage to continue those politically sensitive programs, they may find it harder to sponsor foreign clients -- from Hamas and Hezbollah in the Middle East to Cuba's Castro brothers. Already Mr. Chávez has stiffed Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega, to whom he had promised a $4 billion oil refinery.

Though somewhat less reliant on oil revenue, Russia may be even worse off, because of its dependence on foreign investment. The Russian stock market has dropped more than 70 percent since last spring, and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has had to commit more than $200 billion of the country's reserves to shore up banks. In the past several years, Mr. Putin has several times interrupted energy deliveries to European clients to make political points; he may have less financial leeway to wield that weapon in the future.

Will the decline of revenue lessen the hostility of these regimes toward the United States? There are some intriguing early signs. Russia unexpectedly announced last week that it would not oppose an extension of the U.N. mandate for U.S. troops in Iraq. Though it has refused to rein in its nuclear program, Iran has at least temporarily curbed Hamas, Hezbollah and the "special groups" of Iraq, which in recent months have all but ceased attacks on American and Israeli targets.

Mr. Chávez was notably disturbed when both Barack Obama and John McCain pledged in their final debate to eliminate U.S. dependence on Venezuelan oil within a decade. The caudillo quickly appeared on television with an appeal to the candidates that "instead of saying that they are going to free themselves [of Venezuelan oil], what we have to do is sit down and talk and come to an agreement because we need each other." Is that the "Bolivarian revolutionary" suddenly seeking rapprochement with "the empire?" If so, it may not be the last such offer that the global economic crisis delivers to the next president's desk.


-The end-

The US on a protectionist path?

An IBD editorial muses about what I consider Obama's weakest point: his willingness to submit free trade treaties to the whims of Unions and a few pols in Congress. The example of course is Colombia who is blocked from an FTA because under Uribe assassination of trade union leaders has not gone down enough to the tastes of Pelosi and allies. True, Uribe still has work to do but on that field looking at his global actions of taking down the FARC and trying to control general violence, including a considerably improved safety for union leaders, one would thing his successes should be rewarded instead of putting him through more unnecessary hoops that might in the end tire him and become counter productive. Not to mention that the current Colombia US balance is right now in favor of Colombia, which makes the Pelosi gang on trade look even more silly than what they really are.

But as it is usually the case, trends are more worrying than actual cases and the IBD folks wonder about Canada playing footsie with Europe since Obama announced that the FTA treaty with them might be reviewed. In fact it was the lowest point of Obama in his latest debate, when pressed on FTA by McCain. Clearly he did not know what to answer and reached for a fast "on the trail" cliché to reply. That is very worrisome. And I am sure that his misstep on Colombia was noticed by Canada and Mexico.

There are two things that need to be noted here: the US has always had a tendency toward isolationism. It was brought out kicking and screaming by Pearl Harbor and has been playing around since there, to global benefit in spite of a few pointed errors. Or does anyone think that we would be better off today if the Soviet Union where still splitting Europe in two?

The second thing to be noted is that Senators usually do not make the best candidates, the more so when their Senate experience is pretty much all that they have. And this year we have TWO senators running!!!! Usually I prefer when there is at least a governor, they do have a better grasp of the real world (though Bush is a flaming exception!). Although I have decanted for Obama I am still worried that he is a single term senator. And it shows when he takes positions like he does on Colombia and NAFTA. The current US problems are not due to NAFTA or Colombia, they are due to Wall Street uncontrolled speculation and the unwillingness of the US to confront its social drug problem. Creeping isolationism will not protect the US against drugs or loss of jobs overseas while it will favor authoritarian regimes elsewhere. Chavez would love nothing better than an autocratic Uribe to justify his strong armed rule and justify a road to war.

-The end-

And now a "glorious" cadena. What is Chavez up to?

To crown up the day, Chavez flew speedily from Puerto Cabello were he was 2 hours ago. He just popped out, exhausted at an "spontaneous" rally outside Miraflores (not that well attended as I could see but still, impressive enough for VTV courtesy of the dark). We got a cadena of course. His speech was short, the man is exhausted. He announced that a few people were being arrested for a coup attempt (coup? where? when? on the road from Caracas today I saw only "normalcy" everywhere).

The speech included the usual platitudes, that another coup was foiled, that the revolution was winning, that the opposition would never win, etc, etc... Of course neither during the speech nor through the day earlier we were shown real evidence of anything, not even the names of those arrested (except for some but without good reasons). He added that Venezuela would never had an ambassador exchange as long as the US did not get a real government.

In a way by itself the cadena might not mean much, was not that relevant except for the obvious attempt at making it a TV moment like the infamous propaganda movie "The Revolution will not be televised" of the Irish journalists frauds. So we must look meaning elsewhere, as in what is the situation for Chavez. It is grim. In no particular order.

• Oil prices are going down. At 100, when you subtract the large amounts that are going to Chavez international pet projects, Venezuela might be receiving in true only about 80$. That level is not enough for the current spending levels of Chavez, in a country were raising taxes further will simply kill private enterprise and dramatically slow down production. Even chavismo knows that further tightening will kill the golden goose.
• Maletagate, of course. The effect on the reputation of chavismo at home an abroad will be devastating medium term. Important business and investment decisions will be put on hold indefinitely or scrapped altogether. And a lot of government will be reluctant to have their picture taken with Chavez least they are considered corrupt too. One thing is rumors, another thing is an actual trial.
• The polls. They are not good for Chavez. The opposition keeps getting its act together. Tachira and Yaracuy are on the verge of final arrangements, leaving Bolivar state alone as the lone unresolved candidature. But chavismo is finding more and more trouble and rumors are coming up that a few changes will take place in the line up. The problem with that is the nature of changes, they will be imposed on Chavez and that can only damage further his ascendancy. That is, Chavez is losing control over his crowd which is more worrisome for him than the opposition getting 10 states on November 23.
• The economy. Inflation last months was still a whopping 1.8% which translates to a total of 50.7% on food since August 2007. And guess who is the most hit by food price increases? The chavista voter. The near stopping of private investment this year ensures that jobs in production of goods are not going to increase and that only bureaucratic jobs will be the only way for folks to get a steady income. For how long? And how many of them?
• The quality of life. Traffic is at an all time high. Police nowhere to be seen. Crime rate is not batting. Shortages are timidly starting to reappear, including gas. I have seen three gas stations closed or partially closed this week!!!! Blackouts, water scarcity, garbage accumulation, wrecked road, collapsing public transport, hospitals with longer and longer lines, etc....
• International policy. Ortega is less and less received and people refused to have their picture taken with him. Evo won his referendum but little good did it do to him. Cristina Kirchner is looking for ways to distance herself from Chavez. Castro might or might not be brain dead. Putin is using him, so obviously that it is embarrassing.
• The dollar US. Its climbing makes the huge Euros reserves he transferred less valuable. It might help Chavez import stuff from Europe but makes US imports relatively more expensive. And Chavez relies on a lot of these imports to keep his crowds happy.
• Bush is soon out. Who is Chavez going to attack? Obama?
  

So possibly Chavez is simply looking for a confrontation, his own Bay of pigs, to get rid once and for all of the opposition leadership, of his internal dissidence, to become once and for all Hugo I, king of all the Venezuelas. Any excuse would do, and if you need to invent yet another assassination attempt and arrest a few people without reason to get that excuse to crack down, or at least postpone difficult elections, so be it. This is how we should take all recent events, from the coup video, tot he Puerto Cabello anti US aggression, to the glorified hysteria of a mediocre cadena a few minutes ago.

Difficult days ahead, stay tuned.

-The end-

Reasons to like the US of A

After over a decade an a half living in the US I have learned to appreciate some of the good aspects of its political process. One of my favorite parts, for all the posturing and corniness that some times happen there, is the political conventions. So this week I have been following the Democratic Convention, the one that usually spoke to my Liberal tendencies. Had I been a US citizen I would have probably always voted Democrat except perhaps at Clinton 2, where for some strange reason I found Bob Dole compelling enough (not to mention that I never liked Clinton, conformed by his messing up of the health care reform to his wimpy and undignified back down at the "Don't ask, don't tell" fiasco).

This year I was particularity interested as I have failed to warm up to Obama. I suppose that after ten years back in Venezuela, and 10 years of the cheapest and most vulgar populism, anything that looks too good to be true lights up all my warning lights. I am not sure I would vote for Obama yet, but tonight he went a long way to convince me that he might be more than what I thought him to be. Still, my issues are not quite resolved as I do not like Biden, even though I must admit he makes a sensible ticket. This is good in a way because it will allow me to follow the Republican convention. The only times I followed both conventions were in 1980 and 1988. In 1980 because I was fresh and learning (though I had no TV then) and in 1988 because I lived in Boston then and I watched in horror Dukakis making all the mistakes that cost him his bid. In 1996 I only watched the Republican one, the other years watching the Democratic ones (though of course I never ignored completely the other side).

But my political views are not the point here, I just brought them up to establish how fascinated I was always by this brilliant exercise in democracy, so unique to the States, in spite of the fact that all mystery is usually removed before the convention starts. And that is what makes this exercise so fabulous, the work of reconciliation, the desire to build a real common political platform out of the bitter rivalries of the primary. This convention was no exception and contained some of the best speeches I ever heard in any US convention. Hillary, my favorite, rose to the occasion. For the first time I liked a Bill Clinton speech. Biden was acceptable to compelling and Obama did a great job, seeking blood, in the purest partisan but ever so democratic form. Democratic conventions are always much more fun to watch, there is no way around, there is no way the GOP can ever create such a party atmosphere. As far as I am concerned, from this week, I think that Obama has this thing wrapped up.

But of course there is much more than meet the eye here, because such a great and sometimes gratuitous exercise is only possible in a country with a great tradition of open debate, the McCarthy and Patriot Acts notwithstanding. Conventions are the summary. What I saw this week is difficult to think of it in Europe. Only recently France seems to be approaching this as the Socialists dared launch a true primary last time (the Right is much more reluctant, but it does put up a decent TV show at least). But in general European politics are much more ideological than the US ones, much too parliamentarian and sectarian to dare hold such a venting off arena. People keep forgetting one thing: for all the attempts at an ideological US body politics, from the Daily Kos crowd to the Bible thumping right, the GOP and the Dems still remain a coalition of interests much more than an ideological construct. A few weeks before general elections they must settle their issues and reach a basic compromise, otherwise they are doomed (McGovern anyone? or Bush Senior 2, if you prefer?). Sometimes I am sure that this is the success of US democracy who in spite of being a presidential system has managed to survive terrible catastrophes over more than two centuries.

The best line of this convention was from Bill Clinton, no doubt. I do not know whether he really penned it but it goes down in political history as the right thing to say at the right time, an amazing sense of what must be done.

"People have always been more impressed by the power of our example, than by the example of our power."

I, for one, do subscribe to that fully. If you doubt it look at Europe today, rebuilt under the Marshall Plan with a full belief in democratic values that came with the marines, no matter how many might hate that idea. What about Japan? Even a baseball power now! Or what about FDR managing to avoid extremism in spite of one of the worst recession of modern times? True, the power of the US in its century has been awesome but it would have been of little effect if it was not accompanied by example. And perhaps if Iraq is not the success that some hoped for is simply due because the US forgot to lead by example, from torturing prisoners to behaving like a colonial power. True, it is unfair to simplify the Iraq problem to a simple value question as I just did: it is too much of a complex issue, starting from the failure of Bush Senior to remove Saddam when no one would have cried for him. Was not the first Gulf War the perfect moment to break with common opinion and lead by example even if the UN did not allow for it?

But since this is a Venezuelan blog, that Clinton quote allows me to tie this post to the topic that occupies so much of our time.

Tonight as I was waiting for the convention coverage to start in earnest, I was watching Alo Ciudadano when a cadena came up. The reason was to receive a few Argentina businessmen, true leaches to come around to see what they can grab in Venezuela while the going is still good for them. Don't they know how their colleagues got robbed with SIDOR? Just there I know that this cadena was just yet another excuse for feeble propaganda; and we got it, but in real bad taste. Even though it was totally off topic as the cadena was supposed to be a "conversatorio" between Chavez and these Argentinean businessmen, it was mostly a Chavez monologue as any Argentine who was allowed a microphone knew better than talk for more than a couple of minutes: there is only one mic star here, and it is Hugo.

And what did El Surpremo spoke about? He wasted our time hallucinating about Bolivar and San Martin meeting at Guayaquil, rewriting history further. He launched yet another long tirade against the 2002 "coup", modifying again his own version of events. He insulted those who do not agree with him, using his current favorite word, "pitiyanki" (Yankee lover?) and other assorted choice words. Indeed, I suppose that after what I wrote above I certainly can be accused of pitiyankismo....

But then as I listened to the DNC I returned in mind to that cadena. How small is Chavez compared to all of these great politicians, who make flawless speeches sating their point forcefully without needing to insult their opponent (the Biden speech for example, where he stressed his personal friendship with McCain). And how powerful is their ability to compromise even as they cannot offer a genuine reconciliation. Chavez is simply unable to listen, to compromise, to forgive, to reconcile. It is beyond his understanding, and the few glimpses we might seem to find in him of such virtues are always tainted by secret agendas and incomplete pardons, almost as if he were to forgive some just as to be allowed to be even harsher on most.

It is not that I have any faith in US politicians, I know better. But tonight I was painfully shown the gap in between our democratic cultures. For all its fault the US system is able to produce politicians we are willing to listen to, who are actually saying something, who are able to let us know how stupid we are not to follow them without us feeling stupid as we hear their words. With Venezuelan politicians, chavistas in particular, we always know that we are scum. And with some opposition pols we are also scum, even thought it is not as blatant. In fact, some of the chavista officials reserve some of their worst insults to their own followers, a truly amazing phenomenon, almost as if leadership was acquired there through a nefarious pecking order from hell.

We are so primitive, so vulgar, and we seem to cultivate such characteristics. Perhaps after all we do deserve the fate that has befallen on us.

Meanwhile I am left to observe with sheer envy the US once again coming together at a time of crisis, producing history for us. Tonight for the first time an African American, and a first generation one at that, has been nominated to become the next president of the Country. And if it was not him, it would have been the first woman, equally historical a moment. Tonight we all sensed what is at stake, we all sensed that even if Obama does not make it next November, he has set the agenda of the country and McCain would not be able to escape it. The only real prospect is how fast the page will turn. Obama was not redundant in talking of integration, he talked of gay rights instead. The social revolution that started in the 60ies might not be complete yet, but with him it is advanced enough that is time to start a new one. The US will never cease to amaze us with its regeneration power. Meanwhile under Chavez we have fallen back prey to the worst ghosts of our past. Chavez dares to blame someone else, the US preferably, for his obscurantism and his true reactionary nature. And we have been following for ten years already, with no regeneration perspective in sight. We are so far from greatness.

-The end-

What can Venezuela do to counter Chavez autocratic wishes?

Last December we did stop Chavez latest bid to ensure power for a generation. And yet we are confronted to the need of stopping him once again. In recent months Chavez and his acolytes, afraid as their fortunes start fading, have decided to break down their last restraints and let us see what they are really about. Measures are diverse, from the banning of politicians favored at polls to a set of two dozen decree laws that will allow among many things Chavez to establish rationing cards for all in Venezuela, rule the army as if this was his own militia, seize the property of whomever he does not like, centralize all from his office even if it paralyzes the country. Already new measures are in the works, such as a communication law that will allow Chavez to close this blog as he sees fit, China style, or the nationalization of transport industry to control deliveries of every food staple in Venezuela, favoring of course the districts that vote for him, effectively making elections totally meaningless.

The only amazing thing here is the lack of reaction in general from the populace, too busy in its own survival to pay much attention to the subtleties of complex laws which real objective is control, and only that. Amazingly some people that should have known better waited until a week ago to confess that they are finally getting worried. Obviously they did not read the right blogs who have been predicting our bleak future long ago. But if those people can be excused by distance or naiveté, the political class in Venezuela cannot. After all, as we see on TV or read on papers, the people who most talk against the decree laws are again NGO and civil sectors such as students. Only some politicians, to their great credit, are finally starting to shift the election away from excessive pothole fixing. Julio Borges for one, is giving a much less "blandengue" image than what he used to, at long last.

Yet, can we condemn politicians wholesale? What can they really do? The fact of the matter is whether we like it or not, whether we like our opposition politicians or not, whether chavismo wants us to riot in the streets or stay home cowed by the crime rate terror, all solutions pass through winning as many states as we can win next November. Let's see why.

Article 350

These days this famous article that constitutionally allows for civil disobedience in case of governmental constitutional violation is into many mouths. And truly, for the first time it is worth discussing it even if some luminaries like Teodoro Petkoff ridicule that option because it comes without a manual. Allow me to give you an application example.

Imagine that on November 23 the opposition wins 10 states, including Zulia, Carabobo, Aragua and Miranda. Namely, more than half of the Venezuelan population will be under opposition governor rule. Their possible success would play a determining rile not only for 2011 elections where one of them will be the most likely candidate, but also as a barrage against further Chavez encroachment. But their success will depend on how able they will be to rule, which means to roll back the recent law decrees of Chavez. That is where the 350 appeal comes into play.

Let's say that within a few weeks at least 8 of these governors go to the High Court to post a legal challenge. Let's say that they also go to the CNE to put up a referendum petition to revoke the bills. Let say now that after 2-3 months nothing happens, that under technicalities their petition is blocked. Then they simply can declare upon a notarized document that since they are called to one day exert higher functions, they are declaring now that any agreement made by the Venezuelan state through the 26 decree laws with any Venezuelan or foreign national, or with any foreign country will not be recognized as violating the present constitution. Immediately the Venezuelan credit overseas collapses as nobody will loan money to Chavez unless they can do so completely outside the 26 decrees law because they could face in the future a legal and constitutional default. In short, Venezuela would become too much of an unreliable business partner.

Of course, the legal battle would be hard and international courts would in the end probably rule against Venezuela anyway since no serious country carries anything equivalent to article 350 (1). But the psychological impact would speed up Chavez deterioration or force him to withdraw the laws or accept the challenge of a referendum to vote down the law. He might or might not win it, but odds are that with 10 governors campaigning actively and providing resources to a vigorous campaign Chavez might not win, the more so that the governors at no point are questioning the right of Chavez to remain in office until 2011. But that Chavez will be pushed closer to some form of resignation procedure is clear for all, in particular for the chavistas that are starting to get tired of him.

High stakes game but almost brilliant, no? But it has a catch! You need still to win 10 governorships.

Constitutional Assembly, assorted referendums and National Assembly recall elections

These are three other ways to counter the effect of the enabling law decrees and the laws about to be enacted, based in part on these awful totalitarian intended decrees (note: that their application is difficult if not impossible is not really relevant, the part of it that can be actually applied is for a totalitarian like control of at least some group of people within the country).

In short.

A Constitutional Assembly requires a large amount of signatures, a previous referendum, an election of the said assembly, a new constitution and its approval. It can take a year or two to take effect and thus it allows for two years of application of controls that might make any new constitution a moot point. Not to mention that there is always the possibility that chavismo might win it and even though they will back down on many points they might get what they want the most, two more elections for Chavez.... It woudl be a cumbersome procedure, of result not guaranteed. It would be best to apply after Chavez as a way to clean up the judicial mess left by him. But right now the problem is Chavez and against him alone it is not really that effective.

The different referendums are also an attractive option but with control of TSJ and CNE, the way the questions are put on the ballot can diminish the impact of any vote, not to mention that the TSJ might declare unconstitutional to vote against certain laws or demand instead a series of referendums spaced in time. It will be a protracted war with the ballot in chavista CNE hands and thus far from certain positive outcome.

Recall Election of the National Assembly if for me the best approach as I am sure that at least a third of the sitting deputies can be kicked out no matter how many obstacles the CNE puts in front. That by itself would be enough to disequilibrate chavismo power and break his current majority. The more so that the new wave of deputies will be highly motivated and dig and dig where chavismo wants it the least. By December 2009 we might get a brand new National Assembly with lots and lots of headaches for Chavez.

The catch for all of these options? You need again to win at least 10 governorships. The more so that you will require people to sign on many petitions that will become newer Tascon Lists. You will get that only if you have ten governors taking the front battle and willing to risk their necks if you risk at least your name on a list.

What to do?

Well, we must start by the beginning, win as many governorships and mayor's office as we can. This requires a unified campaign that is able to modulate according to the districts its message. If in Caracas it is OK to stress constitutional violation and Chavez autocracy, to motivate traditional opposition to drop once and for all its abstentionist attitude, elsewhere it might require much more promises of potholes fixing than anti Chavez rhetoric. Not too difficult if you ask me since in most states the chavista officials that got elected 4 years ago have a reputation of absentee landlords. If opposition candidates project the image that they will be there to protect constituent interests, if anything because Chavez will not give them an helicopter to travel around like he gave to folks like Diosdado Cabello who has not been trapped in traffic jams since he is governor, well, it might just be enough to get these ten states needed.

Will the political class rise to the occasion? Nothing less certain but at least it gives meek hints of moving the right way.

But there is one thing that readers of this blog who vote in Venezuela can do: to go and vote and push anyone around them to vote.

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1) Article 350 of the constitution reads in Spanish:

"Artículo 350. El pueblo de Venezuela, fiel a su tradición republicana, a su lucha por la independencia, la paz y la libertad, desconocerá cualquier régimen, legislación o autoridad quecontraríe los valores, principios y garantías democráticos o menoscabe los derechos humanos." Article 350. The Venezuelan people, faithful to its republican tradition, to its fight for independence, to peace and liberty, will not recognize any regime, legislation or authority that will go against the values, principles and democratic guarantees or diminish human rights.

Which is exactly what Chavez has been doing this year.

-The end-