Thursday, November 17, 2005

Chavez un-diplomatic skills

Well, if Chavez thought that he would rally "his" people under patriotic fervor against Mexico, his hopes were dashed once and for all today. The front page editorial of Tal Cual set the record straight, nobody in the opposition, not even the opposition-light of Tal Cual, will accompany Chavez in such an irresponsible adventure. Just as it refused to endorse the anti US chanting. I have partially translated the Tal Cual editorial below, and then some comments.

THE DESINTEGRATOR

Who provided Chavez with the videos of the Mar del Plata summit? Kirchner, who else? The Argentinean president shot through third party.

What he would not do directly, he does it through the “enfant terrible” that the Venezuelan president is, whose gigantic vanity makes him easy to be manipulated, as Fidel Castro found out. With the video diffusion, the delicate diplomatic weaving that the foreign ministers of Mexico and Venezuela were mounting to overcome the problem was blown away. Chavez is leaving his government more and more on the curbside of the continental debate. At Mar del Plata, no matter what the local flatterers, the government, during the discussion, was isolated. The MercoSur countries did not slam the door on FTAA, but they left ajar the possibility of continuing the discussion, trying to reach an equitable arrangement with the US of A because for these countries the present version of the FTAA treaty is a one way street.

At the end Chavez had to add his vote to the southern block, so as not to be left completely out of the game.

[slip] Mercosur does not want anything else but to compensates the imbalances of the “gringo” proposal and if the US were to accede to reciprocity in the matter, one can be certain that Brazil and Argentina, as well as its smaller associates Paraguay and Uruguay would sign without objections. [slip on what the US should do] Mercosur, for the time being, refused to accompany Chavez, to burn the chips. They will wait for the Hong Kong meeting. That is the responsible thing to do.

Chavez doe spot know how to discuss trying to understand the reasons of the others. He does not seek agreements but tries to impose unilaterally his Hill. If it is rejected, he starts a temper tantrum and like a small kid insults whomever disagrees with him. A serious and thoughtful debate with Fox would have been interesting, but the brutal aggression of the Venezuelan president shut down that way. He is also pointing his batteries to the Andean community “There is nothing for Venezuela in the Andean Community” he said last Sunday. Tomorrow if Mercosur were to reach an agreement with the US Chavez would tell us that we have no business there. The road to isolation. The integrationist discourse of Chavez crashes on his disintegrationist practices.

Venezuelans, even most chavista ones and I am willing to bet anything on that, know very well that this is all a Chavez posturing, that if some of his ideas are certainly worth considering, the way he goes about them is to simply figure in the headlines, instead of building anything durable. This nefarious and totally unproductive policy, un-diplomatic way to run foreign affairs, has been put in perfect evidence: in spite of huge handouts out by Venezuela to the small Caribbean island, in oil and payment facilities, NOT A SINGLE one did follow Chavez in Mar del Plata. Oil diplomacy has its limits, apparently.

Besides he committed a gross mistake: in Venezuela it is very fashionable to hire a group of Mariachis at birthdays to come over at the end of the party to sing “Las mañanitas”. The Venezuelan Mexico sentimental link is probably the strongest by Venezuelans to any other Latin America country, as it comes from the very important trading of colonial times (The New Spain vice royalty was a big buyer of Venezuelan cocoa beans). But this is what happens when you have rulers that not only ignore the country’s history, but despise it and try to rewrite it as much as they can.

Wednesday, November 16, 2005

Great Moments in Diplomacy: ambassadors with a message

Contrast these two scenes. Only one has a real message.

Scene 1: the ambassadors return home.

The return of the Mexican ambassador was a rather subdued affair. To the press that was waiting him at the Mexico airport he pleaded to let them go first to the chancery to make his report. He limited himself to say that Venezuelan people treated him very well and that many wished him well when he left (implying that many Venezuelans were not supporting Chavez?)

Vladimir Villegas return was of another sort. The ex ambassador to Brazil, ex director of the state TV, ex small time leftist journalist was not shy in front of the camera. In fact his presentation when he arrived made one wonder how could someone of his temple could make it as an ambassador, and to Mexico at that! No wonder that the Mexican foreign ministry has revoked his placet and that the eventual return of a Venezuelan ambassador will require naming a new one. One can only wonder what role did Villegas had in making matters worse: a “patán” like Villegas should not even be honorary consul! (1)

Sure enough Villegas declared only to the state TV, VTV, least a real journalist were to ask a real probing question. The "official" story first, and only! There was a time when Villegas complained about journalistic complacency, if I recall well, but I might be wrong. And the way he protested about “the campaign of the Mexican special interest groups and media” or something like that sounded hollow. Whether he has links with Al Qaeda, as an ambassador of Venezuela he should not go down the ring to battle the Mexican press. He did get the placet, no? Does anyone train diplomatic revolutionary personnel in Venezuela? In Brazil he was not impressive. In Mexico even less. Makes one wonder which are the real reasons for Chavez to keep sending him to such high profile embassies! (2)

Scene 2: The US ambassador declared to the press today. The US has been very careful to stay clear from the Mexico-Venezuela spat. “It is none of our business”, and it is probably true.

But William Brownfield is a smart guy and he was not going to waste an opportunity to put banderilla in the wounded Venezuelan bull. After all, poor Bill has had to put up with so many accusations of the US as the source of all evil on earth, that, well, you know, he had to let it out (3). Well, ambassador Brownfield came with a little piece of paper where he listed some of the many things that the US has been accused of vis-à-vis Venezuela:

[The US has been accused of being behind] of the presidential assassination attempt, coup d’etat, promoting Venezuelan voter abstention, internal divisions within Chavez party, campaign of the opposition, Vargas floods [in February because Bush did not sign Kyoto] bombs in the CNE office of Carabobo, killing a prosecutor [CIA involvement in the Anderson case, at least not alone there], complot to terrorize Venezuelan kids at Halloween, Colombia’s DAS declarations, decreasing PDVSA production, the International Trasnparency campaign [where Venezuela was revealed as one of the most corrupt countries], international negative media campaign, campaign against the Aves island [a tiny island in the Northern Caribbean that some island state would like to take away from Venezuela, something totally unfounded for this blogger who would suggest to trade it for the Guyana portion stolen from Venezuela by the Brits, but I digress]
And then, tongue in cheek, he adds:
How can I sleep with so many conspiracies and intrigues? The truth is that in this world there are some things that have nothing to do with the US, and this is one of them [the Venezuela Mexico spat]
I do not know about you but I think that Brownfield was superb; and I predict that contrary to Fox he will not get an Alo Presidente lashing for that one. I can hardly imagine how to summarize better Venezuela (Chavez in fact) paranoia and diplomatic incompetence to explain the loss of credibility of Venezuela (and Chavez) on the foreign stage. Crying wolf too much Hugo?

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1)Patan: lout, boor.

2)Video on Globovision, but for pay. Title: Villegas ante revocatoria... 15-11-05

3)Video on Globovision, and this one is worth it. If someone could pride the link it would be great. Title: Embajador Brownfield... 15-11-05, probably on for free until Wednesday morning.

NOTE ADDED: Stig, as usual, has come through and the Brownfield video can be seen here!

Monday, November 14, 2005

Venezuela and Mexico suspend diplomatic relations

Act 1: Mar del Plata, the summit of the Americas

Chavez does a counter summit with an ex druggie and a coca provider. Takes the front stage with a paid for audience (at least there is evidence of people ferried to that show). Meanwhile the other countries are trying really hard to work out a deal.

Chavez rejoins the sessions, finally, only to sabotage things further and fight with whomever does like FTAA.

Pro FTAA countries vote 28 + USA against 4 + Venezuela. Chavez self stated purpose of ruining FTAA once and for all is sent back to him with a nasty sound of "smack" in the face.

Vicente Fox of Mexico is one of the leaders of the FTAA effort and thus the Chavez slayer.

Act 2: A cadena in Venezuela

Chavez, obviously smarting from his diplomatic setback in Mar del Plata (not even a single island of the Caribbean to whom he bribed with oil followed him in Mar del Plata) decides to insult Fox during a live enforced all media broadcast, a "cadena". Nobody can miss the moment.

Fox foreign ministry demands explanations.

Act 3: Derbez and Rodriguez try to smooth things out

Apparently some progress is made.

Act 4: Sunday Alo Presidente

Chavez just ignores (?) the efforts of his foreign minister. Chavez shows videos of the working sessions which are supposedly confidential so that the leaders can speak more freely. Chavez insults Fox again.

The Mexican foreign ministry now demands a formal apology.

Lamely a Venezuelan minister claims the usual suspects: media conspiracy, obscure interests sectors and what not. Never the rudeness of Chavez is called into question.

Act 5: Traveling ambassadors

Venezuela retires its ambassador from Mexico. Fox things that it is best to retire both ambassadors. The news is carried by CNN. Chargés d'affaires will deal with the day to day, one supposes.

Provisional conclusion: with all the problems at home from electoral apathy to the very, very botched and badly backfiring Anderson investigation there is an urgent need to create a diversion. A presidential temper tantrum that will cost dearly to the country is the chosen excuse to distract folks. This is the way things are run in a country where any Yo, El Supremo fart becomes state policy.

And I am pretty sure that it is not the end of it.

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PS: Check Miguel's picture on how close Fox and Chavez were at Mar del Plata. Lovely irony.

An electoral campaign? Where? Indictments? Everywhere!

The casual observer of the Venezuelan situation would be hard pressed to detect an electoral campaign atmosphere. Except for a few pro Chavez posters here and there, and the occasional truck with blaring loudspeakers in the small towns of Venezuela, said observer would be clueless. In fact, public protests everywhere could at first be confused for campaign rallies by this observer. But they are not. Blocking of highways is now a more common practice for groups of people willing to express some form of opinion. When you drive around the country the odds that you will blocked for hours by such a protest must be now about 1 in 4 trips! But I suppose that in this age where all flows from Miraflores Palace if you want something it probably pays more to block the central highways of Venezuela than to attend the rather scant rallies that chavismo calls for its candidates. Not to mention the nearly inexistent opposition ones.

Should we be surprised? Not at all. The involution of our political process where Chavez is every day more and more at the center of all action, even the smallest of micro management scenes, has made people realize that unless you find a way to attract Chavez attention, well, you are wasting your time. Cynically the political movements of the chavista “coalition” do acknowledge this. For the past week, in my citizen duty, even as I have not decided yet whether I will vote, I have been scanning the Yaracuy press to see at least the face of the candidates to the National Assembly. At work, someone gets the Yaracuy al Día, a pro Chavez paper (though lately it seems that the relations with governor Gimenez are souring). So I borrowed to see the pics of the chavista candidates. Sure enough I saw some advertisement, not much. Always the name of Chavez and Gimenez were displayed, usually with their pictures, and rarely, very rarely the name of the actual candidate. Only one actually did print his picture in the advertisement. And no opposition advertisement that I could find. Truly amazing! Ex governor Lapi used to pay for advertisement in Yaracuy al Día!

This week-end I got both Yaracuy papers. Yaracuy al Día did carry this time a full page of a political campaign rally called by governor Gimenez. As you can perceive from the composition, all duly orchestrated, all the advertisement revolves around Gimenez, our local Chavez. At least all the candidates appear in a group photo, WITHOUT their names though. And not very happy faces? Truly amazing!

The opposition paper, El Yaracuyano did carry one advertisement for an opposition candidate. The way it was presented you could see that she probably paid it from her own pocket. All the parties that support her appear in the add, which certainly would not be the case if a given party were to pay for it! Incidentally you can see how the “morochas” work in practical terms. The rectangles of the UNIDAD (MIN) represent the candidature for the local seat. The individual party rectangles represent the “at large” seat. And yes, she is running in both at once, which gives you a hint of the degree of confidence she has in her potential to be elected.

One smiling politician face, at least!

I find these two advertisement for the very local Yaracuy campaign very telling of the situation in the country. Chavismo more than ever relies on Chavez whose picture appears most of the time alone. In other words, candidates know that they will only get elected if they manage close identification with the beloved leader. Originality kills politically.

The opposition is quite dispirited, already accepting the defeat, unable to find resources to match the grossly obscene chavista spending and use of the state monies for its campaign. The opposition also must rely more on the faces of the locals. One can always hope for the opposition that a better identification to the local issues will help it out and that people will want to vote for a candidate whose face they can place, no? Do not count much on it.

The question that is begging to be asked is how come the campaign for the national assembly is so lackluster? After all, Chavez counts on getting a two third majority to be able to modify the constitution and remain legally in office for ever and ever. Is he so certain he will get it by just having his face on the ballot, alone?

From the recent political events you would not think that chavismo is so certain of a good score. In fact, if the victory is all but assured, be it from the despondency of the opposition or the open favoritism of the CNE toward the chavista candidates, what will be missing on election day are voters. Chavez will win by default and that is bad for him, for his self proclaimed popular leadership (even if people had to be brought to the La Plata stadium in between rounds of rioting). Very bad in fact for his image not to see long lines of people screaming to be let vote for.

I believe that this is one of the main reasons why Chavez has kicked into the political battle mode overdrive instead of the electoral one as he does usually crisscrossing the country. Be it the Chavez-Fox-Bush-Kirchner orgy from hell, or the crazier and crazier indictments on the Danilo Anderson investigation, all is becoming pandemonium! That last mad house has reached a new low today as Cardinal Castillo Lara has been indirectly implicated. Apparently among the very unreliable witness that the general prosecutor office seems unable to free itself of, one would have said that the reunion in Panama included a 70 something year old guy with a silver cross on his chest and who went by the name of Lara. Castillo as a first name? Huh?

Let’s imagine that scene. Cardinal Castillo, the second in command in the Vatican for years, probably someone who was used by John Paul II for delicate, confidential or even secrete missions, went after retirement, as he is 80 year old, to the hot and damp Darien jungles, wearing his silver cross for all to see and giving his name around. At that meeting, in the same damp jungle where Patricia Poleo hairdo would not last 10 minutes, he would have met with a Jewish banker, the said Poleo, Venezuelan generals in uniform, CIA and FBI agents showing their badges around, etc… all to plot the murder of a prosecutor that apparently was more dangerous for them than Chavez and the Devil himself. I’ll bet you they also discussed creating a Bolivarian “endogena” cooperative to buy a bridge in New York. All of this as Colombian psychiatric impersonator with an impressive criminal track record was free to take notes.

That the possible motivations of these people to kill Anderson has not been addressed by Isaias Rodriguez so far, the simple fact of trying to imagine that scene can only lead anyone with half a brain to consider that Isaias has been taken in for a ride by someone at the office. No wonder that very seriously on Friday’s Tal Cual front page Petkoff has asked for the resignation of Isaias, the strongest editorial so far on the case. Isaias response? “not even dead will I resign!” Which besides pointing out at the arrogance and stupidity of the one who knows he has been caught, reflects that his lithium is not doing it for him anymore.

But Isaias boss lithium is not working much either. Today, as I heard the report on TV, his Alo Presidente was a long rant on Fox and Bush and what not. At three weeks from a crucial election Chavez could not find in a 4 hours rant the time to discuss electoral policies and strategies.

And then why do you want me not to be surprised when even my chavista employees are telling me that they will not go out and vote…

You can fool some of the people, etc… you know that speech.

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PS: I was writing this post listening to Broadway tunes. What your subconscient makes you reach for before you get to work! Surely there is a musical somewhere in what I wrote. But I suspect that as long as we do not have an Evita to focus the attention, the people just won't buy such a screenplay.

Saturday, November 12, 2005

It gets better!




Now that the event described in the previous post has taken place, the "Venezuelan Solidarity Movement" has just posted a page with the links of the announcements and even a video clip of the event on November 8. I have not watched the clip yet, it is probably due to the shocking presence of the stolen flags, set up now in glorious proeminence!!!!! I mean, they even had to enlarge the picture they lifted from my blog, and it shows in the resolution!!! But I suppose they could not have written me to ask for the original. Do you think I should charge for copy rights? I mean, how much do you think they raked from the suckers on November 8?

I think that this is becoming embarrassing enough (for them) that someone should write!!!!

Or is it that imitation/unauthorized-copy is the sincerest form of flattery?

I mean, even my opposition flags are BIGGER than the picture of the event!

Friday, November 11, 2005

Funding of Venezuela News and Views UNCOVERED!

In a breathtaking breakthrough, brisk and bright anti Chavez blogger Daniel Duquenal was unmasked as a pro Chavez agent. Apparently he has been writing all these years to confuse the silly opposition readers who thought he was some kind of guru, a dispenser of wisdom on how to tolerate the Chavez regime, even offering suggestions on how to sabotage that benevolent administration, but of course in a very inefficient way that these silly saboteurs did not detect.

The evidence? The photo to the right. This web page called for an Evening of Solidarity with Bolivarian Venezuela in New York City. In attendance a who’s who of lefties left out by the times and some Bolivarian circles related folks: Circulo Bolivariano Alberto Lovera, Ramsey Clark, Noam Chomsky, Peter Coyote, Marcia Campos, Danny Glover, James Petras, Congressman Jose Serrano, among other luminaries. Well, this distinguished company advertised using the Venezuelan flag, inserted on the quote by Peter Coyote, which looks incredibly like the Venezuelan flags that could be found on the top right of this blog for the last three years. There is no other explanation: Daniel Duquenal must have given copyrights of this picture to the event that was also a fund raising of sorts. It must have been his contribution after all the monies that he surely got through the VIO. And thus he is unmasked.

Kidding aside now.

This picture was taken by yours truly in the first big opposition march of 2003, the one that made it to Los Proceres where it was ambushed by chavistas, supported by the Nazional Guard. This picture was taken on top of the elevated bypass of Las Mercedes as Daniel likes to take pictures and would not have missed a chance to benefit from that plunging view of a sea of flags.

Yes, that is right, the picture used by that pro-Chavez call to fundraising is actually a picture taken form a march that gathered at least 100 000 people bitching at Chavez. Now, that IS egg on your face for the organizers of the event, people that were unable to find pro Chavez flags among so many multi million marches that chavismo has claimed. How come, guys?

And yes, I do have the original picture which is larger and was trimmed to fit in the glorious position it has occupied, welcoming readers wanting to know more about how chavismo is degrading the moral soul of the country, including intellectual and artistic property rights. So I can prove what I am saying and bring further embarassment if necessary.

Not that it matters much, I have lifted material myself to illustrate my blog, but I was always careful not to pick up material from the other side as if it were from my side… No, it is just hilarious to see how incompetent these guys are, be they in Miraflores or in New York City! And also how closely my blog is followed by chavistas. Welcome guys! Hope you learn something!

Something else, not quite related but perhaps appropriate for this occasion. I have been discrete about it, but last October 8 Harry’s place, one of my favorite leftist blogs, published a simple but meaningful internet interview of Teodoro Petkoff. Yours truly helped to set up the contacts and translate the replies. I did not announce it because, well, I was traveling at the time and it was really Gene’s idea. And, besides, I am not a name dropper and I do not take credit for other people work, EVEN if I actually have a significant input. But I suppose that this is why I am not a chavista. Thus, it had to wait for more than one month, it had to wait for prodding by such antics from a silly Bolivarian circle to finally bring me to claim my part in that work of Gene. Hope you understand Gene! Great job and I hope we will work on an additional and more complete interview when Teodoro finally runs for office.

Ah! Blogging can really be fun on occasion!

Hat tip, Mora y Leon, of all people, for unmasking me!

Thursday, November 10, 2005

Our daily “cadena” , plus bonus Venezuela versus Mexico

For those who are coming late to this blog, I have the sudden urge to describe what a “cadena” is. The reason is very simple, it is 8 PM and Chavez has decided to force upon us a “cadena”. That is, ALL TV bands, ALL radio stations, all airborne media MUST transmit simultaneously the speech of Chavez for as long as he wishes, on any matter he wishes to, without anyone being able to interrupt him and confront him on anything he might fancy to utter.

So, without further ado, a simultaneous blogging of a cadena.

It is 8: 15 PM, suddenly Grado 33 is interrupted and from afar I hear a chorus chanting the national anthem. Cadena! I think immediately in that exquisite conditioned reflex we have developed in the last 7 years as cadenas are a on average a several times a week fixture. That I did not hear the official announcement means that Globovision was late in joining the cadena. Hopefully it will not be fined.

8:20 The chorus is over. A voice announces that the program will be announced. Apparently it is a cadena of some formal event. The spokesperson of the housing ministry announces that this is a non partisan event, it is an event where the bankers and the government are sitting together to announce new measures to help people acquire housing, a joint effort to benefit ALL Venezuelans. Groovy! National reconciliation must be starting at last!

8:25 The announcer also adds that the usual formality for such an event will be discarded and it will be a dialogue. And the first person who is invited to speak is Chavez. End of the dialogue…

8:26 Chavez starts talking. He does not start with housing. He starts with the Mar del Plata fiasco. He starts by saying that he brought videos with him from over there, videos no shown by the main stream media, videos that will reveal what rally happened there. I suppose that the building destructions at Mar del Plata have some relevance to the new housing program about to be announced? Then Chavez starts qualifying Mar del Plata as a real hard fought battle. (Applauses, that will be, by the way, punctuating any cheap patriotic moment or Chavez glorifying incident).

8:30 But the criticism received by Chavez on his actions on Mar del Plata must have stung. No mention of Maradonna or even of the rally at the stadium! Just a very generic “we did this and that”. And to support that Chavez is pissed off, really pissed off, he started attacking Mexico Fox. His words against Fox, I kid you not, are worth of a breakup within the countries. Fox is simply accused of been a coward at the service of the US. Well, maybe it is true, but it certainly not up to Chavez to say that!!!!! I was simply stunned. Not to mention that he would resort to such a vile maneuvers to distract from his own failures, from refusing to admit that 29 countries were on the opposite side of Chavez and only 5 on his. But then again arithmetic have never been Chavez forte.

8:37 Panegeric against free trade, on how Venezuela is not ready for it. I agree. But why is he proposing free trade with Mercosur which will be as bad for Venezuela as free trade with the US?

8:40 Then the cadena moves on to national policies. Unemployment is down, interest rates are down, reserves are up, etc… And the attacks against private properties? Not true! Look, they are all negotiating with us and some have even told us that they indeed have too much land and that they should give it away. But my favorite! International reserves are up thanks to the good economic policies of Chavez. Without mentioning at any point that there is a stringent currency control exchange. But I should have known better, it is all a simple excuse to discuss how much excess international reserve Venezuela has and thus how justified is Chavez to dip in them for social programs and projects (let call them all social programs since we are on election period).

8:55 After miscellaneous self aggrandizement, then the projects started. My favorite so far: the problem of the Marcaibo lake are all due to entering of salt water. All the sad “lemna” invasion (an algal thing overgrowing everything on the lake for the past two years), oil spills that pushed the government to forbid private planes above the lake, etc… is all now excused and forgotten: it was the sea. I was in such shock that I even failed to hear the solution he offered (well, the phone rung also).

9:00 Now that I ma back to listen to it, he is talking about railroads all over Venezuela. And he shifts to all sorts of promises.

Now it is obvious where this is going on and the reader will understand why I have a hard time going through even half an hour of a Chavez cadena. Today I did good, I was not watching it (I cannot stand the grimaces he makes when he talks, and even less when he insults people that cannot defend themselves from his unfounded accusations; such cowardice sickens me). But even if I listen to it from my computer, answering my phone, picking up my nose, there is so much I can take.

9:04 It has been already 45 minutes of “dialogue” and only now we are finally reaching the housing problem. He starts by congratulating the private sector present to the ceremony. Do they have a choice? Don’t they need those contracts?

9:18 I was on the phone. He is now telling us all the new credit measures he is taking (or was that re-taking) to promote housing construction. All of these measures have failed so far, I am allowing myself to be pessimistic. But the atmosphere is warming up, now that the has emptied his disgust at his Mar del Plata failure, he is more genial and he is making silly jokes on people forced to live with relatives after their marriage. Whenever he announces the numbers of the credit rate depending of your income, people applaud as it it were a great novelty. All of this is warmed up form about 6 months ago.

But the fact is that this cadena has already shown its objective. It is a naked electoral propaganda imposed on all of us, in a way that the opposition cannot counter, that the CNE will not punish. It is an completely unfair tactic, an unspeakable advantage, for the chavismo electoral campaigning just as a few days ago a few youth of Primero Justicia were arrested for posting tracts.

You know what, I had enough of this shit, I am turning off and going to bed. The smart reader will know what to think about it.

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PS: observe that at 9:34, the information/propaganda ministry was already publishing the criticism to Fox!!!! With photo included of Chavez during the cadena, which of course this real time blogger even put up with the caption! You can even appreciate the accusating finger! All planned, all manipulated news, all the time.

PS2: I have received a BBC link where you can go and vote as to your opinion on Chavez. Comes with a Petkoff participation. Plus a meaningless but ever so delightful beauty contest among South American presidents.

Followers