Carlos Andres Perez is a Venezuelan ex president, the one against whom Chavez did his failed 1992 coup. The only thing worth remembering from that day is that Carlos Andres recovered from his initial stupor (and panic?) to prevail while Chavez was the lone military to fail his objectives, ruining the coup won elsewhere, and by the way hide at the Military Museum where he shat his pants. As life goes the stinky coward is now in Miraflores while the courageous character, the one who with all his defaults accepted to stand trial and accepted that serious institutions removed him from office for what today would be petty cash for chavismo corruption, is in exile in Miami, rumored to be out of it as his strokes do not seem to be healing.
Well, we might have been counting Carlos Andres out too soon as he gave the only reply worth posting to Chavez war games with Colombia. A war he cannot win but a war that distracts folks from the very real problems from Venezuela. Heck! Since when do Western Countries win wars without electricity, without water, with shitty roads, with fat generals and with the worst corruption in their hemisphere?
Carlos Andres Perez emitted a communique and I translated it below. Enjoy.
--------------------------------------------
In my capacity as former Head of State, I am forced to speak out about the "prepare for war" call made by President Hugo Chávez Frías to the Armed Forces, to the militia and the people in general.
Never in our history a president threatened war against a sister country. On the contrary we have preserved and valued the pride of being the country that has contributed the most to freedom and peace in our region.
The incendiary and irresponsible call of the president, which belittles that status, cannot be taken as mere bravado, and has but a single way to describe it: a crime against the country. Crime against the country's interests. The most serious crime that a head of state may commit.
The argument of the deployment of a few American military personnel in Colombia bases represent a danger to our country is right - because the access of advanced technological resources by Colombia represent a real threat.
But the threat is not for the Venezuelan people but to the regime of Mr Chavez whose cooperation with the FARC narco-terrorists is well known and that now would be limited or prevented.
Putting Venezuelans at risk in a military adventure whose sole purpose is to prevent the controlling of the activities of terrorists and drug traffic that flows through our country protected by the authorities is a crime against the country.
I allow myself to make a call to the armed forces to remind them that Article 328 of the Constitution states that they "constitute an essentially professional institution, without political orientation, and that in the duties they must fulfill is the exclusive service to the Nation and in no case the service to any person or political group. "
The Armed Forces have the obligation to define their position in what seems an imminent crime against the country by the head of state. It is time to know what your position is on such an adventure of incalculable risks for our people and our future.
The head of state has now been threatening and waging war for almost eleven years against the majority of our people. Until when?
-----------------
PS: translating this communique and publishing me puts me on record as someone that will not go to war against Colombia. If Colombia were to attack is a different matter but I would need proof of it since, courtesy to the FARC and even the ELN, Chavez could create a pretext to make it look like Colombia attacked. All is possible for crazed people that feel cornered by events: "If I am going to fall down I am taking along as many as I can with me".
In other words, unless proven that indeed the US and Colombia are preparing an invasion to Venezuela, which odds for me are about <0.01% , I am in open refusal and thus a traitor by chavista canon. Not to mention that I am a pacifist, a conscience objector, and cannot justify any war unless overt aggression is clearly proved. And even then I would be unable to hold a gun and shoot, and would be of any use only at some hospital or such service.
Not that I believe that there will be any war (more on this later maybe) but I wanted to set the record straight, that I agree that Chavez is betraying the nation's interest and just for that threat deserves impeachment and jail. The words of Carlos Andres just confirmed what I was thinking for a while.
-The end-
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Monday, November 09, 2009
A new Twitter address for the war with Colombia
Words, and moderation, fail me to discuss yet the latest threats of war from Chavez against Colombia. Thus, meanwhile, ...
... since he asked us to get ready for war I did my bit by setting a new Twitter account, @yaracuyanito. That way I will be able to report live the blood thirsty CIA directed Colombian troops as they enter San Felipe to loot and rape and what not.
Seriously now. One problem I have in using Twitter is that I do not know whether to Tweet in Spanish or English. Thus I Tweet not. With two Twitter accounts I solve the issue (even though it will be a pain to switch account on my Berry).
@danielduquenal will be from now on in English only
@yaracuyanito will be Spanish only
Contents will be different and in fact @yaracuyanito might be more active, substituting in a way a blog in Spanish for which I have absolutely no time. A mini blog of sorts if you wish, kind of a test run to see if there is indeed a market for me in Spanish (in a perverse way I hope not :), time, time! )
-The end-
... since he asked us to get ready for war I did my bit by setting a new Twitter account, @yaracuyanito. That way I will be able to report live the blood thirsty CIA directed Colombian troops as they enter San Felipe to loot and rape and what not.
Seriously now. One problem I have in using Twitter is that I do not know whether to Tweet in Spanish or English. Thus I Tweet not. With two Twitter accounts I solve the issue (even though it will be a pain to switch account on my Berry).
@danielduquenal will be from now on in English only
@yaracuyanito will be Spanish only
Contents will be different and in fact @yaracuyanito might be more active, substituting in a way a blog in Spanish for which I have absolutely no time. A mini blog of sorts if you wish, kind of a test run to see if there is indeed a market for me in Spanish (in a perverse way I hope not :), time, time! )
-The end-
Sunday, November 08, 2009
That watery wall left
Tomorrow we are celebrating the fall of the Berlin Wall. 20 years! I still remember how stunned I was when I heard the news coming 
back from work. I lived in Baltimore then, and I think I spent half an hour in the parking lot until I finally left the car radio to go for the TV and start a round of phone calls to friends around the country. Oh! We knew that there were deep problems in the East but until the very last moment we could not imagine that the wall would fall just like that, with nearly a shot fired. We saw the total but not absolute collapse of a system that had outlived its use for many years before it fell.
The work is not quite over yet, and new nasty apprentices find ways to put up walls around their society.
Some walls still exist from then, such as in North Korea. China (and Vietnam?) are finding new creative ways to not only induce their folks not to escape so fast, but even to lure some to come back, even conditionally. It is a slow deliquescent wall that will take still a few more years, but it is crumbling even as in the West we pretend not to see it, do not try to push along the collapse now that we need the Chinese funds to help us out of our economic crisis.
But the folks I have really in mind are those ruling over Cuba, the Castro brothers who pretend that the Wall never fell down. For them it is easy, they have a watery wall all around their country, and nothing worth exploiting in the island. Even the beaches can be found elsewhere, at least as nice, and with not as many jinetero/as to fend off with your Panama Hat. Who cares?
And there is of course Chavez who in his immense ignorance and awesome immorality wishes the Wall would have never breached. So, as the low rated tyrant he is, his endeavor is to build an internal wall in Venezuela, to split in two Venezuelan society, having one side abuse the other in an alleged redress for the past. In fact the wall he builds is to hide behind as the coward he has always been.
But let me remind you all of one thing: when walls are built it is becasue people from both sides allow for that. People from the outside, such as the Spanish help to "integrate Cuba" or the hypocrisy of Lula toward Chavez defending him by minimizing Uribe legitimate security concerns, are the worst moral offenders of such processes. They do not even have the excuse of a war torn Europe who did not think it could take on Communism right after it took off Fascism.
-The end-
back from work. I lived in Baltimore then, and I think I spent half an hour in the parking lot until I finally left the car radio to go for the TV and start a round of phone calls to friends around the country. Oh! We knew that there were deep problems in the East but until the very last moment we could not imagine that the wall would fall just like that, with nearly a shot fired. We saw the total but not absolute collapse of a system that had outlived its use for many years before it fell.The work is not quite over yet, and new nasty apprentices find ways to put up walls around their society.
Some walls still exist from then, such as in North Korea. China (and Vietnam?) are finding new creative ways to not only induce their folks not to escape so fast, but even to lure some to come back, even conditionally. It is a slow deliquescent wall that will take still a few more years, but it is crumbling even as in the West we pretend not to see it, do not try to push along the collapse now that we need the Chinese funds to help us out of our economic crisis.
But the folks I have really in mind are those ruling over Cuba, the Castro brothers who pretend that the Wall never fell down. For them it is easy, they have a watery wall all around their country, and nothing worth exploiting in the island. Even the beaches can be found elsewhere, at least as nice, and with not as many jinetero/as to fend off with your Panama Hat. Who cares?
And there is of course Chavez who in his immense ignorance and awesome immorality wishes the Wall would have never breached. So, as the low rated tyrant he is, his endeavor is to build an internal wall in Venezuela, to split in two Venezuelan society, having one side abuse the other in an alleged redress for the past. In fact the wall he builds is to hide behind as the coward he has always been.
But let me remind you all of one thing: when walls are built it is becasue people from both sides allow for that. People from the outside, such as the Spanish help to "integrate Cuba" or the hypocrisy of Lula toward Chavez defending him by minimizing Uribe legitimate security concerns, are the worst moral offenders of such processes. They do not even have the excuse of a war torn Europe who did not think it could take on Communism right after it took off Fascism.
-The end-
And a real reality check from Cuba
Saturday is my "low on news" mental hygiene day. But a brief scanning through Juan Cristobal
at CC I learn with great horror that Yoani Sanchez, the most famous dissident blogger of Cuba, has been beaten up by goons; from the Cuban government it is extremely easy to guess. She tells her harrowing experience in Spanish here.
When for Venezuelan bloggers to go through a similar experience? I ain't stopping writing any time soon, just in case chavistas goon red this. If it is going to become like Cuba, I am ready.
-The end-
at CC I learn with great horror that Yoani Sanchez, the most famous dissident blogger of Cuba, has been beaten up by goons; from the Cuban government it is extremely easy to guess. She tells her harrowing experience in Spanish here.When for Venezuelan bloggers to go through a similar experience? I ain't stopping writing any time soon, just in case chavistas goon red this. If it is going to become like Cuba, I am ready.
-The end-
Needed reality check?
I found this image today and I thought it would be intellectual enough for a lazy Saturday. Not to mention that it did not include blogging, so I can breathe, for now, hearing the warning shots over twitter that could well hit blogging any time soon. By the way, did any one follow Roland Hedley of Doonesbury this week?
I have not been very good at Twitter. I tried. After Iran I thought it would be good to have an account (@danielduquenal). But I failed. I cannot for the life of me come up even weekly with a thought that I think might be worthy of imposition on the people who have decided for some reason to follow me. Heck, I have even stopped paying attention to the not even half a dozen people I tried to follow, if anything for blogging business reason, like following Miguel. I suppose that those who follow me must be happy that I am a rare occurrence (?).
Blog reading people come to read if they want, what they want, when they want. There is a certain willing self imposition that comes with Twitter that, well, does not fit me at all. I mean, it is good to have the account, in today Venezuela one never knows when it will come in handy (assuming the goons that come to arrest me allow me to keep my blackberry, a doubtful premise). Or maybe to tweet while I am standing on line at some election day.
The fact of the matter is that if you look at the lower right side of this page you will find an MBTI profile that will tell you all. As an INTP I am interested in new technologies, I tried them, such as I did for facebook or twitter. But soon enough my Introversion takes over. Soon I stop twitting and soon enough I start hiding more and more people on my personal facebook page. The facebook blog page I set long ago, well, I have not checked it out in months... I am even thinking about closing it since I cannot figure out in which way it can complement the blog. I am sure not going to discuss on facebook whether I shower with three or four totumas..... as Chavez would have us do.
PS: I found this drawing in a blog that did not gave any credit. Hence no credit. Just in case.
-The end-
Thursday, November 05, 2009
The 2010 votes: gerrymandering in Venezuela
There is still some stuff to be written to prepare for the election sets of next year. In particular the latest battles between the opposition as to hold primaries or not and the infamous "tarjeta unica". But it is more important to visit in detail the last (?) issue left from this series of posts: how the new electoral law will allow for gerrymandering by the CNE as it pleases.
Perhaps the hardest things that any electoral uni-nominal system has faced is the design of electoral circumscriptions. History has told us that no one ever reached a satisfactory solution, some going all the way to civil wars in order to decide how a circumscription should count its electors and inhabitants (does the US political debates in the mid XIX century ring a bell for some of you?). Of course proportional systems do not suffer of this as much, though they are not exempt of the problem when they establish regional lists. The problem is that you may pixelate a country in even squares but each square will have an unequal number of people in it, and very differing interests as you go from the middle of the picture to the edge. Trying to group the pixels in uneven squares to get image detail is actually not very easy and could blur further the picture.
When politicians try to have their hand in pixel distribution things get even more out of shape as they try to group their supporters in thin support districts while they dump their opponents in huge majority opposing districts. A most famous designer of electoral districts was a certain Elbridge Gerry of Massachusetts who showed how it was done, no matter how ridiculous the shape of the new district would be.
You can imagine that if gerrymandering can be done in countries like the US or France where the post office can reach every nook and cranny, what can be done in countries like Venezuela where millions of people have never received a letter, not even a bill, through mail. Who knows how many people actually live and vote in a given district? This was a problem before Chavez. You can assume now that the problem is much worse, and of course much more tempting to use for chavismo.
I do not know how much time I will dispose of to illustrate the extent of the problem so I chose for the time being to dissect the case of Miranda state. It will be quite a long post by itself.
Before I start you should know that contrary to the US where the state legislatures decide of new electoral district boundaries every ten years once a semi reliable census has been performed, in Venezuela as of now it will be the 5 rectors of the electoral board, the CNE, who will decide of new electoral districts with little supervision and no possibility for redress. Add to this that the last electoral census was nine years ago, and a sham at that, and that the INE is well known for fudging all sorts of statistics and you can guess the possibilities that open for the chavista controlled CNE who will have all sorts of convenient numbers to justify any arbitrary decision they decide to take.
This being said. Until last year electoral districts were created by adding municipalities until enough of them yielded enough people to justify a representative. Municipalities could not be cut, sliced, etc... and in addition they had to touch each other. In that way it was hoped, even though the distribution could not be quite fair, that at least abuses by electoral authorities would be limited through the political parties influencing them, and that the union of these municipalities would yield some kind of "regional" interest. Considering that in Venezuela it is difficult to determine exactly who lives where the system sort of worked.
The Miranda case: from 1998 until today
The first figure is the example of possible Miranda state electoral result, based on the 2008 results and how districts were decided in the old system. In 2008 the regional vote was Governor Disodado Cabello with 507K votes, defeated by challenger Capriles Radonski who got 584K votes. Right click to enlarge in a different window. Note: since the minor parties in that state did not get together 2% of the vote I am just ignoring them altogether and considering all through this post that there are only two sets of candidates. To simplify matters, you know.
From above you can see that the result next year extrapolating from 2008 would be 4 district seats for the opposition (blue triangles) and 3 list seats for a total of 7. Chavismo (red stars) would get 4 district seats too, and 2 list seats for a total of 6. That is, 7 to 6 seats, really close to the vote percentages: for the oppositions 53.5% vote for 53.8% seats.
Thus the old system works even with the infamous "morochas" if both sides use the electoral trick and present a united front. It will not be really representative of the diversity of the state but at least representative of the overall majority (read preceding posts for more details).
Yet the system carried a certain number of problems, and was unfair to the opposition electorate as the next figure indicates, even if in this case the final result was fair. Let's look first at the raw data from 2008. According to the CNE data from 2005 and 2008 we can list each electoral district and its number and the different municipalities that are included in each district (matching colors with the above map); how each municipality voted for Diosdado and Capriles, and the population of the district. In the last column I calculate the percentage of that population that voted for the major candidates.
The first observation we can thus discuss is that of the 21 municipalities that include Miranda only 8 had more than 40% people voting, and of these 8, ONLY 2 were carried by chavismo/Diosdado (red stars). Independently from the virtues and defect of Diosdado Cabello as a candidate, it is clear that any gerrymandering requires a consideration of districts more likely to have high voter participation, and isolate or group them together as required.
The advantage of chavismo becomes clearer in this next figure when we look at the electoral "quotient". That is, how the CNE determined how many districts are created and how many of those ones will include more than one representative (in Miranda case only one district, Sucre, has two representatives).
In the first columns we have the districts and their municipalities, as above. Then we have the population in each district for 2005. Then I divide the population by 8 (8 district seats in 2005, there will be 10 in 2008) for the "quotient" of which I use to calculate what I call the elector value of each district. Before I go into that number, it is this one rounded up or down that determines how many seats each district gets, in the one before last columns (Sucre got two because Miranda got an extra national seat for some reason not of the scope of this discussion).
The voter value number as I calculated it allows to compare the worth of each district. If I divide the 1.26 of district 4 by the 0.72 of district 1 the results is 1.75. This means that the electoral value of an elector in district 1 is almost the double of the value of an elector in district 4 since it will take almost two votes of the inhabitants of district 4 to "neutralize" a vote from district 1. Obviously, trying to address such issues is one way to enter into gerrymandering as I will show next.
How will Miranda by chopped for 2010?
The first thing to remember is that from 5 list votes Miranda will go to three representatives elected through the list vote. Thus to the original 8 district representatives we must add two new seats which oblige new calculations and perhaps redistricting. I do not know of course what will the CNE decide in the end, I am just offering you a possible scenario next. It will include a reasonably legal and justified change, and an unconstitutional one made legal through the new law. Let's start with a new table.
The table just above is the same posted just before except that now the "quotient" is calculated over 10 representatives, at 278.903 people. The last column is the division of the district population which rounded up requires the CNE to add one seat to district 4 and district 2. But what you can observe is that when we look at the voter value now district 4 has an advantage and the district punished the most is district 7! The CNE should normally accept that though there is a way to change district configuration that would be acceptable, legal and without changing the overall results. That new result, in theory, would be as the figure below shows:
The result now would be coming from:
1)removing two representatives from the list vote, one from each side,
2)the addition of of one opposition seat to district 4 and one chavista seat for district 2.
In other words we do retain an overall fairness of representative distribution for the state, 6 to 7 seats won, even if district 7 is more unfairly represented than district 4 was.
But through gerrymandering the CNE can change the result without too much trouble.
First, the municipality of Los Salias, who votes heavily for the opposition, could be split from district 7 to 4. Now the elector value for 7 would drop from 1.42 to an acceptable 1.16 while the voter value of district 4 would go up from 0.79 to 0.92, all more acceptable. The final result should still remain the same taking 2008 numbers, BUT... the opposition victory in district 7 would now be razor thin and a heavy chavista investment in that district could turn it around for a razor thin victory. That is, reasonably safe districts 1, 5 and 6 could be worked out less intensely while the financial effort of vote buying could be focused on 7. In a year where electoral money will be less plentiful, such details count a lot. Not to mention that other tricks can be used to favor chavismo in district 7 such as voter migration from district 5. If that strategy were to work opposition would now get 6 seats to 7 for chavismo EVENT THOUGH the opposition would still get MORE THAN 50% of the vote!!!
But it gets better. According tot he new CNE law parishes (and maybe even smaller geographical units?) can be detached from their municipality and joined to another one strictly for electoral purposes. If clearly this could be use to reinforce chavismo in Guacaipuro by giving it some border area of Urdaneta, there is a much more spectacular application in Sucre, district 3.
With the new seat distribution district 2 is now the one with the best voter value at 0.74, and thus the most unfairly advantaged. Compensation cannot really come from district 1 which is still favored itself. Compensation can come only from district 3, Sucre municipality. But there is a problem, it voted opposition in 2008, even though the majority of this districts is comprised of "ranchos", low economical class areas in theory Chavez lovers.
Now, close examination of district 3 reveals that the parish close to district 4, Leoncio Martinez, voted for Capriles by 30.786 votes to the meager 6.801 votes Diosdado Cabello received. By cutting off this parish, including it into district 4 AND including the remaining of Sucre into district 2 we create a new large district which elects 4, FOUR, representatives. And the beauty of it is that the chavista advantage in district 2 is enough to compensate the deficit in 3. Not by much, but enough. The result of all of this combined is shown in the new map below:
With the 2008 numbers where Capriles Radosnski won with 584k to 507k votes, chavismo gets 8 seats to the 5 that the opposition now gets! And if the trick works in district 7, that number becomes 9 to 4!!!!!!!! In other words, with a theoretical vote 560 to 531 (51.3% to 48.7%) won by the opposition chavismo could still get 9 to 4 seats, that is 69% of the seats!!!!! 49% of the vote becomes 69% of the seats!!!!
The counter part of course is that if chavismo continues its decline in Miranda, the opposition c could carry the 4 seats of the new super district 2 and with 55% of the vote it would carry 9 to 4. However observe that for the opposition to carry 69% of the seats IT NEEDS to carry at least 55% of the vote, 6 points more than what chavismo requires, courtesy of CNE redistricting (one legal and on illegal moves). Note, to underline this hypothesis I have put a red and blue question mark in these narrow margin results, the districts that could go either way if votes are counted as they should be.
Conclusion
It should be crystal clear that in front of redistricting the only weapon the opposition has is a perfect unity of candidature, coupled to all the usual, as, etc, etc.... Any division will not only be a sure disaster in district 7, but also in 3 if kept as is. A divided opposition can lower the required 49% vote of chavismo to acquire a seat majority to as low as 40-45%!!!
Unity is the requisite sine qua non. The CNE, we can be absolutely sure, will try to establish as favorable a redistricting for chavismo as possible, and also publish the final electoral map as late as possible to hinder as much as possible the opposition effort to reach unique candidate nominations. Chavismo has no such problem because not only they will know these changes before hand, and certainly before the opposition, but because their party structure and authority of its beloved leader will allow for a prompt and definite nomination process.
The opposition leadership has a huge challenge in front of it. Not only it needs to reach some form of unity agreement but it also needs to reach it alone because the kind of game involved in redistricting can only be countered by political parties, not by NGO organizations that will not even be received at the CNE offices. Civil society and naive folks like me can only hope to impress that notion on the political chiefs that must fight this battle.
-The end-
Perhaps the hardest things that any electoral uni-nominal system has faced is the design of electoral circumscriptions. History has told us that no one ever reached a satisfactory solution, some going all the way to civil wars in order to decide how a circumscription should count its electors and inhabitants (does the US political debates in the mid XIX century ring a bell for some of you?). Of course proportional systems do not suffer of this as much, though they are not exempt of the problem when they establish regional lists. The problem is that you may pixelate a country in even squares but each square will have an unequal number of people in it, and very differing interests as you go from the middle of the picture to the edge. Trying to group the pixels in uneven squares to get image detail is actually not very easy and could blur further the picture.
When politicians try to have their hand in pixel distribution things get even more out of shape as they try to group their supporters in thin support districts while they dump their opponents in huge majority opposing districts. A most famous designer of electoral districts was a certain Elbridge Gerry of Massachusetts who showed how it was done, no matter how ridiculous the shape of the new district would be.
You can imagine that if gerrymandering can be done in countries like the US or France where the post office can reach every nook and cranny, what can be done in countries like Venezuela where millions of people have never received a letter, not even a bill, through mail. Who knows how many people actually live and vote in a given district? This was a problem before Chavez. You can assume now that the problem is much worse, and of course much more tempting to use for chavismo.
I do not know how much time I will dispose of to illustrate the extent of the problem so I chose for the time being to dissect the case of Miranda state. It will be quite a long post by itself.
Before I start you should know that contrary to the US where the state legislatures decide of new electoral district boundaries every ten years once a semi reliable census has been performed, in Venezuela as of now it will be the 5 rectors of the electoral board, the CNE, who will decide of new electoral districts with little supervision and no possibility for redress. Add to this that the last electoral census was nine years ago, and a sham at that, and that the INE is well known for fudging all sorts of statistics and you can guess the possibilities that open for the chavista controlled CNE who will have all sorts of convenient numbers to justify any arbitrary decision they decide to take.
This being said. Until last year electoral districts were created by adding municipalities until enough of them yielded enough people to justify a representative. Municipalities could not be cut, sliced, etc... and in addition they had to touch each other. In that way it was hoped, even though the distribution could not be quite fair, that at least abuses by electoral authorities would be limited through the political parties influencing them, and that the union of these municipalities would yield some kind of "regional" interest. Considering that in Venezuela it is difficult to determine exactly who lives where the system sort of worked.
The Miranda case: from 1998 until today
The first figure is the example of possible Miranda state electoral result, based on the 2008 results and how districts were decided in the old system. In 2008 the regional vote was Governor Disodado Cabello with 507K votes, defeated by challenger Capriles Radonski who got 584K votes. Right click to enlarge in a different window. Note: since the minor parties in that state did not get together 2% of the vote I am just ignoring them altogether and considering all through this post that there are only two sets of candidates. To simplify matters, you know.
From above you can see that the result next year extrapolating from 2008 would be 4 district seats for the opposition (blue triangles) and 3 list seats for a total of 7. Chavismo (red stars) would get 4 district seats too, and 2 list seats for a total of 6. That is, 7 to 6 seats, really close to the vote percentages: for the oppositions 53.5% vote for 53.8% seats.
Thus the old system works even with the infamous "morochas" if both sides use the electoral trick and present a united front. It will not be really representative of the diversity of the state but at least representative of the overall majority (read preceding posts for more details).
Yet the system carried a certain number of problems, and was unfair to the opposition electorate as the next figure indicates, even if in this case the final result was fair. Let's look first at the raw data from 2008. According to the CNE data from 2005 and 2008 we can list each electoral district and its number and the different municipalities that are included in each district (matching colors with the above map); how each municipality voted for Diosdado and Capriles, and the population of the district. In the last column I calculate the percentage of that population that voted for the major candidates.
The first observation we can thus discuss is that of the 21 municipalities that include Miranda only 8 had more than 40% people voting, and of these 8, ONLY 2 were carried by chavismo/Diosdado (red stars). Independently from the virtues and defect of Diosdado Cabello as a candidate, it is clear that any gerrymandering requires a consideration of districts more likely to have high voter participation, and isolate or group them together as required.
The advantage of chavismo becomes clearer in this next figure when we look at the electoral "quotient". That is, how the CNE determined how many districts are created and how many of those ones will include more than one representative (in Miranda case only one district, Sucre, has two representatives).
In the first columns we have the districts and their municipalities, as above. Then we have the population in each district for 2005. Then I divide the population by 8 (8 district seats in 2005, there will be 10 in 2008) for the "quotient" of which I use to calculate what I call the elector value of each district. Before I go into that number, it is this one rounded up or down that determines how many seats each district gets, in the one before last columns (Sucre got two because Miranda got an extra national seat for some reason not of the scope of this discussion).
The voter value number as I calculated it allows to compare the worth of each district. If I divide the 1.26 of district 4 by the 0.72 of district 1 the results is 1.75. This means that the electoral value of an elector in district 1 is almost the double of the value of an elector in district 4 since it will take almost two votes of the inhabitants of district 4 to "neutralize" a vote from district 1. Obviously, trying to address such issues is one way to enter into gerrymandering as I will show next.How will Miranda by chopped for 2010?
The first thing to remember is that from 5 list votes Miranda will go to three representatives elected through the list vote. Thus to the original 8 district representatives we must add two new seats which oblige new calculations and perhaps redistricting. I do not know of course what will the CNE decide in the end, I am just offering you a possible scenario next. It will include a reasonably legal and justified change, and an unconstitutional one made legal through the new law. Let's start with a new table.
The table just above is the same posted just before except that now the "quotient" is calculated over 10 representatives, at 278.903 people. The last column is the division of the district population which rounded up requires the CNE to add one seat to district 4 and district 2. But what you can observe is that when we look at the voter value now district 4 has an advantage and the district punished the most is district 7! The CNE should normally accept that though there is a way to change district configuration that would be acceptable, legal and without changing the overall results. That new result, in theory, would be as the figure below shows:
The result now would be coming from:
1)removing two representatives from the list vote, one from each side,
2)the addition of of one opposition seat to district 4 and one chavista seat for district 2.
In other words we do retain an overall fairness of representative distribution for the state, 6 to 7 seats won, even if district 7 is more unfairly represented than district 4 was.
But through gerrymandering the CNE can change the result without too much trouble.
First, the municipality of Los Salias, who votes heavily for the opposition, could be split from district 7 to 4. Now the elector value for 7 would drop from 1.42 to an acceptable 1.16 while the voter value of district 4 would go up from 0.79 to 0.92, all more acceptable. The final result should still remain the same taking 2008 numbers, BUT... the opposition victory in district 7 would now be razor thin and a heavy chavista investment in that district could turn it around for a razor thin victory. That is, reasonably safe districts 1, 5 and 6 could be worked out less intensely while the financial effort of vote buying could be focused on 7. In a year where electoral money will be less plentiful, such details count a lot. Not to mention that other tricks can be used to favor chavismo in district 7 such as voter migration from district 5. If that strategy were to work opposition would now get 6 seats to 7 for chavismo EVENT THOUGH the opposition would still get MORE THAN 50% of the vote!!!
But it gets better. According tot he new CNE law parishes (and maybe even smaller geographical units?) can be detached from their municipality and joined to another one strictly for electoral purposes. If clearly this could be use to reinforce chavismo in Guacaipuro by giving it some border area of Urdaneta, there is a much more spectacular application in Sucre, district 3.
With the new seat distribution district 2 is now the one with the best voter value at 0.74, and thus the most unfairly advantaged. Compensation cannot really come from district 1 which is still favored itself. Compensation can come only from district 3, Sucre municipality. But there is a problem, it voted opposition in 2008, even though the majority of this districts is comprised of "ranchos", low economical class areas in theory Chavez lovers.
Now, close examination of district 3 reveals that the parish close to district 4, Leoncio Martinez, voted for Capriles by 30.786 votes to the meager 6.801 votes Diosdado Cabello received. By cutting off this parish, including it into district 4 AND including the remaining of Sucre into district 2 we create a new large district which elects 4, FOUR, representatives. And the beauty of it is that the chavista advantage in district 2 is enough to compensate the deficit in 3. Not by much, but enough. The result of all of this combined is shown in the new map below:
With the 2008 numbers where Capriles Radosnski won with 584k to 507k votes, chavismo gets 8 seats to the 5 that the opposition now gets! And if the trick works in district 7, that number becomes 9 to 4!!!!!!!! In other words, with a theoretical vote 560 to 531 (51.3% to 48.7%) won by the opposition chavismo could still get 9 to 4 seats, that is 69% of the seats!!!!! 49% of the vote becomes 69% of the seats!!!!
The counter part of course is that if chavismo continues its decline in Miranda, the opposition c could carry the 4 seats of the new super district 2 and with 55% of the vote it would carry 9 to 4. However observe that for the opposition to carry 69% of the seats IT NEEDS to carry at least 55% of the vote, 6 points more than what chavismo requires, courtesy of CNE redistricting (one legal and on illegal moves). Note, to underline this hypothesis I have put a red and blue question mark in these narrow margin results, the districts that could go either way if votes are counted as they should be.
Conclusion
It should be crystal clear that in front of redistricting the only weapon the opposition has is a perfect unity of candidature, coupled to all the usual, as, etc, etc.... Any division will not only be a sure disaster in district 7, but also in 3 if kept as is. A divided opposition can lower the required 49% vote of chavismo to acquire a seat majority to as low as 40-45%!!!
Unity is the requisite sine qua non. The CNE, we can be absolutely sure, will try to establish as favorable a redistricting for chavismo as possible, and also publish the final electoral map as late as possible to hinder as much as possible the opposition effort to reach unique candidate nominations. Chavismo has no such problem because not only they will know these changes before hand, and certainly before the opposition, but because their party structure and authority of its beloved leader will allow for a prompt and definite nomination process.
The opposition leadership has a huge challenge in front of it. Not only it needs to reach some form of unity agreement but it also needs to reach it alone because the kind of game involved in redistricting can only be countered by political parties, not by NGO organizations that will not even be received at the CNE offices. Civil society and naive folks like me can only hope to impress that notion on the political chiefs that must fight this battle.
-The end-
Sunday, November 01, 2009
Is the Future in Europe?
Two news item from Europe this week tell us that the social future is in Europe and not in Venezuela.
In Paris, former president Jacques Chirac will stand trial on some funky business when he was mayor of Paris. During his 12 years tenure at the presidency he managed to dodge the issue claiming that a president benefited from judicial immunity during his tenure. Now, he is again a simple citizen and his past is finally catching up to him. Interestingly the more sympathetic comment came from his socialist adversaries, one of them regretting that such a trial would affect the needed majesty of the presidency.
Whatever the case might be, it is refreshing to see that the French quasi monarchic presidency is brought down from its cloud. First the term was lowered from 7 to 5 years, and last year, sitting president Sarkozy supported yet a new constitutional change that limited the presidency hold to a maximum of two consecutive terms. I need not offend your intelligence by reminding you how the Chavez presidency has become eternal, imperial and unaccountable. Por ahora.
Across the border in Germany a new government has been sworn in. It includes as the number 2 figure, vice-chancellor and foreign minister Guido Westerwelle, openly gay politician with hubby, leading the Liberal party of Germany (Free Democrats, neo-liberal in US terms). Of course, my first thought is for gay movement of the US who like African Americans have tied hopelessly their fate to the fortunes of the Democratic party just to be used and discarded as needed. Or should I remind folks for example how blacks voted for Obama in California while shooting down gay marriage there? So pays the Devil.
Amusingly the first foreign trip of Westerwelle is to Poland where he met with Catholic militant (and possible homophobe?) very conservative president Lech Kaczynski. I had to put the picture because I find the meeting hilarious, when one knows all the past of these two countries and their troubled relationship. If anything says social progress in Europe, it has got to be scenes like this one.
Right now I cannot imagine a meeting between cheap macho Chavez and Westervelle. I am pretty sure that either him or his boss Angela Merkel will try to avoid such a meeting as much as possible. I can even imagine the vulgar pleasure that Chavez might take during one of his Alo Cadena in preparation to such a meeting, or after that one. He would talk good words but in such a tone and context so as to make them in fact a vulgar mockery. After all Chavez is the president who has managed to put 4 women in the 5 powers of Venezuela, to the contrary expected effect. All of them look like maids there, put up by Chavez so they can do whatever he orders them to do. It is amazing that the fact that 4 out of 5 top political positions occupied by women in Venezuela end up in fact as a regression on women's lib, in effect looking much more like a symbol of female submission to the alpha male that tries to find any possible way to screw us.
Truly, the future is not in Venezuela.... But one can always dream of Chavez on trial (with much m more serious charges than those of Chirac) while a new democratic National Assembly votes gay marriage. Which will happen first?
-The end-
In Paris, former president Jacques Chirac will stand trial on some funky business when he was mayor of Paris. During his 12 years tenure at the presidency he managed to dodge the issue claiming that a president benefited from judicial immunity during his tenure. Now, he is again a simple citizen and his past is finally catching up to him. Interestingly the more sympathetic comment came from his socialist adversaries, one of them regretting that such a trial would affect the needed majesty of the presidency.
Whatever the case might be, it is refreshing to see that the French quasi monarchic presidency is brought down from its cloud. First the term was lowered from 7 to 5 years, and last year, sitting president Sarkozy supported yet a new constitutional change that limited the presidency hold to a maximum of two consecutive terms. I need not offend your intelligence by reminding you how the Chavez presidency has become eternal, imperial and unaccountable. Por ahora.
Across the border in Germany a new government has been sworn in. It includes as the number 2 figure, vice-chancellor and foreign minister Guido Westerwelle, openly gay politician with hubby, leading the Liberal party of Germany (Free Democrats, neo-liberal in US terms). Of course, my first thought is for gay movement of the US who like African Americans have tied hopelessly their fate to the fortunes of the Democratic party just to be used and discarded as needed. Or should I remind folks for example how blacks voted for Obama in California while shooting down gay marriage there? So pays the Devil.
Amusingly the first foreign trip of Westerwelle is to Poland where he met with Catholic militant (and possible homophobe?) very conservative president Lech Kaczynski. I had to put the picture because I find the meeting hilarious, when one knows all the past of these two countries and their troubled relationship. If anything says social progress in Europe, it has got to be scenes like this one.
Right now I cannot imagine a meeting between cheap macho Chavez and Westervelle. I am pretty sure that either him or his boss Angela Merkel will try to avoid such a meeting as much as possible. I can even imagine the vulgar pleasure that Chavez might take during one of his Alo Cadena in preparation to such a meeting, or after that one. He would talk good words but in such a tone and context so as to make them in fact a vulgar mockery. After all Chavez is the president who has managed to put 4 women in the 5 powers of Venezuela, to the contrary expected effect. All of them look like maids there, put up by Chavez so they can do whatever he orders them to do. It is amazing that the fact that 4 out of 5 top political positions occupied by women in Venezuela end up in fact as a regression on women's lib, in effect looking much more like a symbol of female submission to the alpha male that tries to find any possible way to screw us.
Truly, the future is not in Venezuela.... But one can always dream of Chavez on trial (with much m more serious charges than those of Chirac) while a new democratic National Assembly votes gay marriage. Which will happen first?
-The end-
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