Arming the unarmed, and unarmable

This weekend the dictatorship decided to perform "military exercises" to scare the US away from an intervention.  Not that it matters since the US will not waste a drop of Marine blood on a Venezuelan beach, but let's not go there now. The point here is that if Marines do not kill folks while landing at Patanemo, ridicule may finally be able to kill people.....

Certainly these week end activities are a circus show, this one segment even includes a midget at the end of the video.  Why, oh, why?

Communication disaster

I have been victim of two power outages that lasted for a total of 14 hours over the two days of strike. As such not only internet was out, but it never came back. The one from my smartphone is weak and barely allows me to read twitter, if it is in a good mood. So I cannot use it as an internet source for my laptop and thus cannot post or do more than very basic e-mail.  I am briefly at the office getting ready to leave before noon if I want to have a chance to get back home for the terrible coming weekend.

I will try to cover what I can in the next crucial days from twitter and instagram and try to post whatever I can post.  But to keep you abreast of the situation, here in brief:

• general strike has worked in opposition areas. It did not work so well in regime areas becasue, at least in Caracas, colectivos acted to force stores to remain open. But they could not hide that most bus transport system was out. Thus the strike was a regime defeat.

Recall Election all but over

Today the head of the electoral board, CNE, Tibisay Lucena announced that "if all goes well" the gathering of the 20% signature from the registered electors could take place late October. TRANSLATION: even if the 20% is gathered late October there will not be enough time to fend off legal challenges so that the Recall Election is held before January 10 2017. If the recall election is held after that date and even if 90% vote to oust Maduro, his serving vice-president will replace in office to complete the two years in the presidential term.

In other words the regime has announced that there is no way they will risk a presidential election before December 2018. And if you still do not get it, the current cabinet of musical chairs will remain presiding over the country until January 2019 at the earliest.

Versión de "La Salida" para los chavistas

La manera en que Giordani fue botado nos pone a pensar. Y pensándolo bien uno entiende que más allá de cualquier diferencia ideológica o de cualquier ilusión de cambio económico, lo que se esta gestando dentro del chavismo es "La Salida", pero de algunos de ellos, a disfrutar de lo que se han robado. Si algo ha sido confirmado estos días, aunque sea parcialmente, es lo que escribe Rafael Poleo desde hace ya bastante tiempo. Según Poleo un grupo dentro del chavismo ha decidido ir a la posición pragmática de negociar una salida. En este caso lo "pragmático" no significa un cambio de modelo, no significa mas democracia. No. Significa hacer los cambios necesarios para que los altos jerarcas puedan salir del poder de una manera "soft", y entregar el coroto a unos sucesores que cargarán con casi toda seguridad con las culpas. El cambio de Maduro de comunista barato a neo liberal de pacotilla solo puede explicarse con la decisión de Cuba de entregar Venezuela a intereses transnacionales a cambio de que él, y los Castro y unos cuantos más salgan ilesos, con una porción suficiente del botín acumulado para un retiro cómodo.

Para poder explicar y entender esto hay que entender primero cual es la situación del chavismo y de Venezuela.

On wings of war?

So I can address finally Chavez latest hubris, to reactivate the tension with Colombia.

The first thing to observe is that there was no serious reaction to the renewed attempt at Chavez to stir up the nationalistic fiber. The opposition all but mocked the president, remembering perfectly well that last time he sent tanks to the border they were trapped in the traffic jams of the ARC highway. The only note of interest was the declaration of ex president Carlos Andres Perez I translated last night, to the effect that any president that plays with his country the way Chavez plays deserves the boot. Make no mistake, no matter how harmless in the long run the latest lunacy of Chavez might seem, it will represent at the very least substantial administrative costs, will reduce further the already paltry foreign investment and will contribute to polarize further the country as chavista goons at any time could start beaten up some of the Colombians living inside Venezuela and numbered at several millions, the largest foreign contingent inside Venezuela.

But what must have worried Chavez is that his own side did not reflect much more enthusiasm for the fight than the opposition. Besides the expected cheering of the Taliban sycophants such as labor minister Cristina Iglesias or Caracas mayor Rodriguez, not much was heard. In fact Iglesias and Rodriguez probably jumped on the opportunity for some self promotion since their star is not too bright within chavismo these days.

Let's say that there probably was more reaction outside Venezuela than inside. Though not necessarily for the better as, for example, Lula got a slap on his face: right after he said he would promote an Uribe Chavez meeting soon, Chavez went out to heighten tensions. Lula made a fool of himself pretending that he could bring those two guys to the same table while ignoring one of the main reasons for the discord: the FARC support by Chavez. It is astounding that at this juncture Lula is not more forceful on this matter, confirming in my mind what I have written in the past, that Brazil's interest include a weakening of Colombia, the only country today that can challenge them for the control of part of South America. It is time for Lula to go, he has done what he was meant to do and it seems that he is starting to undo his work.

So why this whole mess you may ask? There are two very basic reasons.

The first one is the Galtieri complex, named for the Argentine general that tried to hide the military regime collapse by going to war over the Falklands. We all know how this ended. With all the internal problems that have exploded into Chavez face, problems of his own making, he needs something as big as a war to force the attention of the country elsewhere. A time tested strategy for scoundrels at any level when they feel trapped.

A second reason is that by promoting the danger of war Chavez could force out of Tachira (and Zulia?) state houses the current opposition governors in office, for "national security reasons". There is an increasing need for that because the presence of Cesar Perez in Tachira is bringing an increasing spot light on the drug traffic across the border, the guerrilla hide outs protected by the Venezuelan army, etc, etc... In Tachira and Zulia chavismo needs governors that not only offer a blind eye to all these abuses but in fact collaborate actively in protecting the FARC camps, the jungle landing strips, the drug traffic and what not.

I think this second reason is the real matter for last Sunday outburst. But there is yet another third reason that one can come up with if we assume that Chavez is indeed becoming crazy. A war with Colombia offers him a convenient way out of office at a difficult time and knowing that he has neither the skills or the people to solve the problems of Venezuela. Two sub-speculations here:

1) Chavez is indeed a nut job now and he wants war. He does not care whether he loses, he thinks he will win on the history books anyway and that his face might replace the one of the Che on t-shirts.

2) Chavez knows he will lose and that neither the army or his party will follow him all the way in a war. The consequence will be either a major purge within chavismo and increased dependence on Cuba (I can see Cubans promising that exit), or there will be a coup against him by his own followers and thus Chavez enters not only the legend, but leaves behind a messy country that others will have to clean up allowing for his eventual return in half a dozen years when people only remember the piñata of 2004-2008, just as the return of Carlos Andres Perez in 1988 was due to the memories of the piñata of the 70ies over which he presided.

The wings of war look more and more the only way that Chavez has to fly/flee the tight spot he placed himself in.

-The end-

War with Colombia? An ex president speaks

Carlos Andres Perez is a Venezuelan ex president, the one against whom Chavez did his failed 1992 coup. The only thing worth remembering from that day is that Carlos Andres recovered from his initial stupor (and panic?) to prevail while Chavez was the lone military to fail his objectives, ruining the coup won elsewhere, and by the way hide at the Military Museum where he shat his pants. As life goes the stinky coward is now in Miraflores while the courageous character, the one who with all his defaults accepted to stand trial and accepted that serious institutions removed him from office for what today would be petty cash for chavismo corruption, is in exile in Miami, rumored to be out of it as his strokes do not seem to be healing.

Well, we might have been counting Carlos Andres out too soon as he gave the only reply worth posting to Chavez war games with Colombia. A war he cannot win but a war that distracts folks from the very real problems from Venezuela. Heck! Since when do Western Countries win wars without electricity, without water, with shitty roads, with fat generals and with the worst corruption in their hemisphere?

Carlos Andres Perez emitted a communique and I translated it below. Enjoy.

--------------------------------------------

In my capacity as former Head of State, I am forced to speak out about the "prepare for war" call made by President Hugo Chávez Frías to the Armed Forces, to the militia and the people in general.

Never in our history a president threatened war against a sister country. On the contrary we have preserved and valued the pride of being the country that has contributed the most to freedom and peace in our region.

The incendiary and irresponsible call of the president, which belittles that status, cannot be taken as mere bravado, and has but a single way to describe it: a crime against the country. Crime against the country's interests. The most serious crime that a head of state may commit.

The argument of the deployment of a few American military personnel in Colombia bases represent a danger to our country is right - because the access of advanced technological resources by Colombia represent a real threat.

But the threat is not for the Venezuelan people but to the regime of Mr Chavez whose cooperation with the FARC narco-terrorists is well known and that now would be limited or prevented.

Putting Venezuelans at risk in a military adventure whose sole purpose is to prevent the controlling of the activities of terrorists and drug traffic that flows through our country protected by the authorities is a crime against the country.

I allow myself to make a call to the armed forces to remind them that Article 328 of the Constitution states that they "constitute an essentially professional institution, without political orientation, and that in the duties they must fulfill is the exclusive service to the Nation and in no case the service to any person or political group. "

The Armed Forces have the obligation to define their position in what seems an imminent crime against the country by the head of state. It is time to know what your position is on such an adventure of incalculable risks for our people and our future.

The head of state has now been threatening and waging war for almost eleven years against the majority of our people. Until when?

-----------------

PS: translating this communique and publishing me puts me on record as someone that will not go to war against Colombia. If Colombia were to attack is a different matter but I would need proof of it since, courtesy to the FARC and even the ELN, Chavez could create a pretext to make it look like Colombia attacked. All is possible for crazed people that feel cornered by events: "If I am going to fall down I am taking along as many as I can with me".

In other words, unless proven that indeed the US and Colombia are preparing an invasion to Venezuela, which odds for me are about <0.01% , I am in open refusal and thus a traitor by chavista canon. Not to mention that I am a pacifist, a conscience objector, and cannot justify any war unless overt aggression is clearly proved. And even then I would be unable to hold a gun and shoot, and would be of any use only at some hospital or such service.

Not that I believe that there will be any war (more on this later maybe) but I wanted to set the record straight, that I agree that Chavez is betraying the nation's interest and just for that threat deserves impeachment and jail. The words of Carlos Andres just confirmed what I was thinking for a while.

-The end-

That watery wall left

Tomorrow we are celebrating the fall of the Berlin Wall. 20 years! I still remember how stunned I was when I heard the news coming back from work. I lived in Baltimore then, and I think I spent half an hour in the parking lot until I finally left the car radio to go for the TV and start a round of phone calls to friends around the country. Oh! We knew that there were deep problems in the East but until the very last moment we could not imagine that the wall would fall just like that, with nearly a shot fired. We saw the total but not absolute collapse of a system that had outlived its use for many years before it fell.

The work is not quite over yet, and new nasty apprentices find ways to put up walls around their society.

Some walls still exist from then, such as in North Korea. China (and Vietnam?) are finding new creative ways to not only induce their folks not to escape so fast, but even to lure some to come back, even conditionally. It is a slow deliquescent wall that will take still a few more years, but it is crumbling even as in the West we pretend not to see it, do not try to push along the collapse now that we need the Chinese funds to help us out of our economic crisis.

But the folks I have really in mind are those ruling over Cuba, the Castro brothers who pretend that the Wall never fell down. For them it is easy, they have a watery wall all around their country, and nothing worth exploiting in the island. Even the beaches can be found elsewhere, at least as nice, and with not as many jinetero/as to fend off with your Panama Hat. Who cares?

And there is of course Chavez who in his immense ignorance and awesome immorality wishes the Wall would have never breached. So, as the low rated tyrant he is, his endeavor is to build an internal wall in Venezuela, to split in two Venezuelan society, having one side abuse the other in an alleged redress for the past. In fact the wall he builds is to hide behind as the coward he has always been.

But let me remind you all of one thing: when walls are built it is becasue people from both sides allow for that. People from the outside, such as the Spanish help to "integrate Cuba" or the hypocrisy of Lula toward Chavez defending him by minimizing Uribe legitimate security concerns, are the worst moral offenders of such processes. They do not even have the excuse of a war torn Europe who did not think it could take on Communism right after it took off Fascism.

-The end-

2009 Venezuela

Where are we standing now? The February 15 vote has indeed changed some of the parameters of Venezuela but it has not solved any of the basic problems and as such we have not progressed towards any satisfactory settlement, political, economical or social for that matter. However a few things are now clear: the electoral composition of the country and the economic crisis on its way to hit us, and real bad, are the things that will push Chavez toward a further radicalization of his policies with disastrous consequences.

The not so new political division

One thing that is now very clear is that we know exactly how the Venezuelan electorate is divided, without any of these external parameters weighing in such as local politicians, local issues, historical perspectives and others. After 10 years of rule the country has decided strictly based on Chavez merits and as such it has awarded him 55% of the vote. Which is his lowest personal score, by the way, but a clear majority nevertheless.

As I have written in preceding texts, I personally think that those 55% of the country that voted for Chavez are basically of undemocratic nature. Not that the 45% who voted against him do not contain also a significant amount of not very democratic folks, but it is my conviction that the immense majority of the Venezuelans who have a democratic fiber in them did vote NO on February 15. Those who did not vote NO were either unable to vote for X reason, or actually belong to the counted few democrat idealists still hanging around the Chavez camp. As such the lesson we must get out of February 15 vote, no matter how bitter that lesson is, is that the large majority of Venezuelans, perhaps as much as 2/3 of the country really do not care how things are done as long as they get what they are seeking. I cannot write it in any more charitably.

Let’s decompose the chavista electorate of three weeks ago.

A portion is hard core chavista and would vote for him no matter what, even if he were found in bed having sex with an underage boy.

Another portion vote for him because they think that Chavez is offering them some revenge from real or imaginary ills. Usually voting for Chavez is an excuse for their own shortcomings. We call them the “resentidos sociales”.

There are those who are scared, who think that if they do not vote for Chavez they are going to lose their jobs, or social unrest will come, or their relative would lose their jobs, or something. These people do not care about the large issues at all, probably only vote when they feel their routine threatened. We can include in this group a strange group of conservatives who actually think that they should be allowed to vote for the same cacique for as long as they feel like it. Indeed according to some pollsters when Chavez allowed all politicians to run for ever, that is when his chances to win brightened.

And of course we cannot forget another large constituency, those who are getting something out of the regime, be it a meager misión stipend, or a juicy governmental contract, it does not matter. They are out looking to make a buck and they cannot care less if others are making more or less than them, if the system is fair or not, as long as they get their hands on something.

All of these people share something: they all know very well what Chavez does, how reckless and abusive he is, how corrupt his regime turned out to be. They all knew that perfectly well and yet that did not stop them from voting for him. They have absolutely no excuse, never should they be allowed to say that “Oh, I did not know! Oh, I was following orders!”. After ten years, they have no excuse and thus the only rational explanation for what they are allowing to happen to our country is that they do not care about democracy, they strictly care about what is out there for them to grab. Some kind of perverse “single issue” voter we could call them. It is not that this is such reprehensible attitude towards life and politics, it is just that the difference between the barbaric and civilization resides in the later to be willing to consider more than just its self serving interests or loves. When the barbaric becomes the overwhelming majority, then a society should get ready to get what it deserves.

Chavismo on the rampage

The terrible thing here is that Chavez and his entourage know well the low democratic tenor of their electorate, and the implication in it: no loyalty when things turn sour. He also knows that this year will be more difficult as there will be less lavishness to dispense in 2009. That is why he decided to radicalize his actions.

In 2006 Chavez thought he had it made and did the gorilla thing: RCTV went down, and the “reforma” was launched. Within one year he had received his first knock out, and that happened with Venezuelan heavy crude hovering at the 100 USD level. Now again he basks in victory and he once again behaves as if all was within his reach. Except that now he is missing 15% of the electors he had in 2006, a 15% that more or less found its way to the opposition. Chavez knows that his time is now counted and the time to act is today. He has a very precious few months to create the system that he hopes will lock the deal for him once and for all.

In democracy even a landslide victory is no excuse to create an irreversible social change. True, landslide victories can produce permanent changes in society but at some level all understand that there is certain reversibility, or at least always to possibility to adapt a given system even if it cannot be overturned anymore. But Chavez, and his advisers in particular the Cuban ones are no democrats and with the current crisis they know it is now or never. They do factor in one advantage: the world is so busy with its crisis that any undemocratic move in Venezuela today will not be met by a strong reaction from overseas. Not to mention that these outside folks think that if Venezuelans are stupid enough to vote for a creep so obviously on an authoritarian trip, so be it for them.

And thus Chavez has started to act. All what we see these two weeks, from intervention of the rice processing pants to a radicalization of the personnel in government through a new ministry, is designed for that, to force the economic issue, to stir the people on his side against the only enemy at hand: the opposition for the time being symbolized as the private sector. Which curiously does not stop him form trying to pick up a fight with Obama, as a future needed enemy.

Chavez is obliged to go to war: he has run out of money and he must secure a food supply he cannot easily import anymore. By a series of populist measure he will try to ensure that his Mercal and PDVAL remain supplied. At the same time he finishes off the private sector which is always seen as a threat, not only political but also moral. This is why this week end we saw a Chavez minister implying that the people should not wait for the state to nationalize of intervene private business, they should actually take the initiative. This is why even areperas are a target because they are simply a constant reminder on why the government is unable to tame inflation, not to mention that for the cheap hordes of chavismo they are a convenient scapegoat.

What to expect for the reminder of 2009?

The situation is, to say the least, delicate. The chavista offensive against the private food production concerns is going to be an irremediable disaster: we are not going to have enough food, without having the means to import the needed stuff. To this you need to add the collapsing mining and metal industry of Bolivar and the PDVSA inability to sustain investment to keep up not only its production but also its bloated bureaucracy. True, for a brief period of time, while the new takeovers still sort of work out (a month? three maybe?) there will be a brief euphoria in the chavista base as distribution of cheapened items take place. But this cannot last and then chavismo will have to face the music. Some to all of these things will take place, with their consequence:

Taxes will be raised: any weak possible investment will dry out. Increasing taxes to go out of a crisis can only work as a short gap measure when you have already a strong production base and you want to use these taxes to restart consumption and/or production of some sectors. As it stands today, the private sector that survived the 2002-2005 crisis is working full speed and cannot increase much its current production without massive investments that will take at least a year or two to have any effect.

Public sector employment will be curtailed; private sector job offering will not rise: these people will find no jobs in the private sector. A stalling and then a decrease of production will take place because of the adverse conditions facing the private sector. The increased number of ill conceived regulations that saddle the weakened private sector, from CADIVI to LOCYMAT, are designed to control and weaken the private sector. As the crisis looms we cannot count on the private sector to help, even if it wanted to do so.

Food shortages will come back with a vengeance: the government will be faced with either allowing prices to rise sharply or to institute some form of rationing system.

Budgetary cuts will have to be decided: once weapon purchases are canceled the only fat that can be cut is at the level of social misiones, or increasing gasoline prices.

A devaluation will happen: this, with all that is already listed above will lead to higher inflation than the 30%+ we already observe.

If to all of this you add the deliberate political tensions that Chavez is creating these days what do you expect the final results to be? Social breakdown and the increased repression justified in the name of keeping order in the country. That repression will include serious attacks to freedom of expression as the government will need to hide its economical failure and the repression it needs to undertake to make sure this one does not affect its hold to power.

It is a classic textbook scenario. In fact, it is quite possible that Chavez looks forward open confrontation, civil war even, to become either a martyr Che style or a Mugabe/Castro feature. Or why do you think that Venezuela this weekend decided to support Sudan's Bashir, Darfur genocide notwithstanding?

There is no more pretense even.

And these sad considerations force me to consider what I should be doing for myself and this blog.

-The end-

Those exquisite revolutionary moments: RCTV as the "me, my, mine" moment of the autocrat with the tearing apart of a country

The RCTV closing is now a 99.9% certainty. One always hope that at the end some common sense should prevail, but I, for one, have stopped doubting long ago that Chavez will go ahead and close RCTV next Sunday.

Rather than focus on the legalities, this might be a good moment to think about the real meaning and implications of the near fait accompli, if you forgive me a slight oxymoron.

The closing was never in doubt since the late December announcement by Chavez. Oh, yes, in the months that followed there was some hope that Chavez could not do it. But that was at best wishful thinking since no mechanism seemed to exist to stop such barbarism. And this starting with what should have been the main mechanism of resistance, the political opposition which was vacationing unconsciously all the way through the end of January.

The reality was that Chavez had decreed the closing of RCTV because it was his way to tell us that now he was the master of Venezuela. And that he was angry that we were not accepting it that easily, starting with some of his allies. At the root of all of this I am not afraid to point out to the dysfunctional character of Chavez who complains because he only got 63% last December. That angry “victory” press conference a few days after December 3 should have told everyone what they needed to know: 37% for the opposition was unacceptable and we were going to pay for it. One of the first natural targets had to be RCTV, the network with the highest ratings in Venezuela, and the one that had refused to stop criticizing the government in spite of all the regulations created to neuter television. Chavez simply could not accept that RCTV had been smart enough to find a way to keep pressing on, had found a way not to kneel in front of El Surpemo. Chavez had to show Venezuela was his, that he is the boss.

How can any one doubt it? Did Chavez not say all sorts of “me, my, mine” statements through these past 5 months? Did he not even say that the High Court would never go against a “sovereign” decision of the government (confirming by the way in his own mouth that he was above the courts)? These recent months have been the perfect stage for Chavez to show us that he was above the media, that he was above justice, that he was above international opinion, that he was above decency, ethics and morality. Chavez was going to go all the way through the closing of RCTV because he had to show once and for all that the was the authority in Venezuela, above elections and law.

But the price he will pay is phenomenal. I will pass quickly on the obvious such as the international condemnations raining on him. I can take today’s articles from Spain El Pais which dedicates a stinging editorial with an accompanying note. We can examine the US Senate resolution that might be taken unanimously today, a rather rare event for a cantankerous Senate mired in Iraq problems. Or we could look at the European Parliament resolution (which El Pais complains by the way that only 3 Spaniards participated in the vote). These condemnation started already, from places such as the Chilean Senate creating the first serious warning to Chavez (and weakening further Bachelet). But he went though, weathering a Brazilian minister criticism, a series of international organizations reproaches, and what not, including outright lies from his lackeys and ambassadors..

No, the real price Chavez will pay is in Venezuela. The damage that Chavez will bring on Venezuela next Sunday will be without repair, for him as well as for those who oppose him. As of next Sunday night we will have started on the road to violence and civil conflict again. It will not be helped, and I am certain now that this is what Chavez wants, as the only way he has left to reduce that 37% he cannot stand.

Because what is important in the RCTV closing is that for the first time Chavez “takes away”. Until now a lot of folks turned a blind eye on Chavez as long as they received some benefit. In a country where democracy was taken for granted, and where democracy was looked upon as rather ineffective to solve the country’s problems, that Chavez was a little bit authoritarian was OK as long as money seemed to flow down to the masses.

But the RCTV will change that perception. All of these folks, except, according to polls, the rabid 20% chavista core, are opposed to the RCTV closing because they know exactly what it means. For some it is the end in soap opera choice. There will be only the novelas of Venevision, and those for not too long as many chavistas have said for a long time that novelas should not be shown on TV anymore. For many it will be the end of dissenting information. In all the areas where Globovision does not reach there will be no more air borne information where governmental deficiencies are shown, where the local people can go and denounce governmental abuses or poor services. For others it will be the end of choice in trashy entertainment such as the silly TV games. That announces to them in a unique way the arrival of a puritanical aspect of the revolution that they never believed in.

Now, for the first time all Venezuelans will learn that there is a price to pay for everything and that the “gifts” from Chavez were not so. Cassandras from the newspapers to this modest blogger have said it all along, the Piper will come to cash his due. And the RCTV closing is only the first installment we will have to pay for shoddily supplied Mercal stores and free aspirin at Barrio Adentro. The time of choices is coming and a complaisant country will start realizing what the revolution really meant all along. The consequences are for all to figure out easily.

-The end-