Where is Waldoniel: 2012 edition

Still out of Venezuela, I did walk in front of this bookstore window and of course I could not resist to renew with the "where is Wladoniel" series, hated by some, appreciated by others.

Today it is an easy one: after all there are only so many countries where such a window set up could exist. The winner is the first one to guess the country, with a bonus point if you can name 5 countries where the odds of such a display are realistic.

Click for details.

The Paraguay MERCOSUR fiasco: the loser list

It is difficult to overestimate the disaster implied by the removal of Lugo and the quick ejection of Paraguay from MERCOSUR.  If there is a case where there is no winner, it is that one.  Thus the following lists of losers, trying to simplify the issues.

PRESIDENTIAL SYSTEM

Once again we are reminded that today presidential systems are the least suitable systems of government for our countries, even though none of Latin America countries have dared try a parliamentary democracy to prove me right or wrong.  Our distasteful and dysfunctional "presidential institution" has become even more of a burden in an age where media reigns sovereign and is not afraid to manipulate everything, from opinion to outcomes. As such we get phenomena like Chavez or skillful manipulators like the Kircheners and even Lula or Uribe.

¡Ay, MERCOSUR! ¡Quien te viera!

MERCOSUR jalando

Si alguien tenia duda alguna sobre la capacidad de MERCOSUR en mejorar las cosas en nuestra rincón del planeta, hoy se puede quedar tranquilo o tranquila: el MERCOSUR no esta aquí para mejorar la calidad de vida de los pueblos, esta aquí para consolidar el club de presidenticos y presidenticas mediocres y los que le tiran plata.

No nos engañemos con lo que paso ayer en Mendoza, por mas que lo medio blanqueen reportes como los de BBCMundo: en ningún momento se defendió la democracia, sino que se aseguraron las cuentas por pagar.

Puede ser que haya muchísimos motivos para sancionar a Paraguay, hasta llevarlo a una suspensión temporal, o quizás a una exclusión frontal. Pero hasta donde yo sepa se le violaron, tal vez, los derechos a una sola persona, un presidente, que no era ningún paragón de virtudes para empezar, quien personalmente violo sus votos de lealtad y cuanto precepto de ética se le cruzo en el camino.  Sea lo que sea, eso no era excusa para aprovecharse de un error político para pasar sobre lo que era una voluntad reiteradamente expresada por un cuerpo democrático y legislativo que rechazó una y otra vez el ingreso de Venezuela por no cumplir con el mandato de Ushuaia. Porque si a eso vamos, el gobierno de Venezuela no se cansa en violar tratados internacionales, su propia constitución y cuanto precepto de ética se le cruza en el camino. Al lado del parlamento de Venezuela las vagabunderías que hacen otros parlamentos regionales son juegos de niños.

En ABC Paraguay están clarísimos

Con la entrada de Venezuela al MERCOSUR a pesar de la expresa negativa de su miembro mas débil se hace claro que a Brasil y Argentina solo le importan lo suyo.  No nos olvidemos que ya Brasil se quejó amargamente de la negativa del senado Paraguayo, llegando al chantaje.  Con la entrada de Venezuela al MERCOSUR a pesar de Ushuaia y de la renuncia de Chavez a la Corte Interamericana de Derechos Humanos se confirma que MERCOSUR es para los negocios imperialistas del Brasil, y nada mas. No dejemos de observar que ahora Brasil critica dicha Corte que tuvo la mala idea de defender los derechos de los nativos del Amazonas.

Lo que paso ayer fue una alianza de los acreedores de Venezuela para que está, al entrar al MERCOSUR, pague sus cuentas, sea quien sea entre a Miraflores en febrero del 2013. Y que quien sea que entre a Miraflores no pueda estructurar una política económica de producción nacional que pueda afectar las abundantes exportaciones del MERCOSUR a Venezuela.

Pobre los incautos que pedían a gritos la entrada de Venezuela a MERCOSUR como Antonio Ledezma que hizo un tour al respecto.  Ahora podrán ver como el MERCOSUR no va a levantar un dedo cuando a Chávez se le ocurra su próximo desacato constitucional. Eso si, mientras siga comprando y pagando, que es para eso que está Ushuaia, para chantajes.

That Paraguay thing: Dilma Roussef is the most ridiculous of them all

I would love to make an extensive article on Paraguay but time is not with me.  Suffice a single observation: when a "coup" is against a president, all raise arms in anguish, including Dilma Roussef that should have known better, if anything as to the responsibilities of her continent sized country and the still smarting fiasco of Lula in Honduras.  However when the "coup" is against a parliament of a judicial system, nobody cares to talk much about it.  The hypocrisy is deafening.  When Chavez did a parliamentary coup in 2010 against the elected new National Assembly, having the lame duck one empty it of any power for 18 months and castrating it of any significant influence for the rest of its term, nobody at UNASUR, nobody at Mercosur, nobody at OAS did much protesting, if it were not for, guess what, the Paraguayan Senate.

I am not going to enter into any consideration of whether Lugo had it coming, just pointing out that with a year left in his term maybe it is not worth the grief.  The precedents in Venezuela and Ecuador should have been kept in mind.

No, my point is that the "outrage" is in part at the tiny Paraguayan Senate for not allowing the corrupt business and governmental practices of big and powerful Brazil and Argentina with Venezuela run free of any control.  Mercosur may die with Lugo and I, for one, will not miss it.

There, somebody had to say it.

Away for a while

An unexpected trip takes me away of Venezuela for maybe 3 weeks.  Already blogging was rather light and the heart not on it as it should.  So you may infer that there is a real chance of no post for three weeks.  But I have my camera, my lap top, even a tablet now (the play book of blackberry, of course, the tablet to have in Venezuela) and enough airports where to kill time.  So who knows, maybe a light "where's Waldoniel" for old time's sake, pictures of things I eat, etc..  anything but Venezuela. :-)

Polls from hell, and Reuters taking them at face value

Long time readers know that I have long ago stopped putting major credence on Venezuelan polling companies.  I only follow Datanalisis as relatively more accurate than others (it did good in the recent primaries for example) and Keller who in spite of all his troubles may be the best one at illustrating tendencies.  Consultores 21 is not bad too.  But no matter what, in the country of the Tascon List, it is wise not to rely too much on polls and more on your own historical analysis since too many people are unwilling to say what they really think.  Such skepticism has served me well, allowing me to predict the result of the legislative elections and the one of the primaries, and a rather good score on the 2008 regional ones.

This being said, it is necessary to break my rule and comment the latest of Datanalisis, that we know only through Reuters, written by Marianna Parraga who has more than once stumbled upon her Venezuela reporting with booh-boos that cannot be easily forgotten, to the point that many suspect her to be pro Chavez.  Far from me to go deep into her latest work because, well, it is a shoddy  piece of journalism, relying on a single undisclosed source for a private poll of which we know no detail, etc, etc...  Blogs, such as yours truly, are written with more seriousness than her Reuters reports!

Happily wasting money away on toys....

... in which we learn that not only Chavez/PDVSA are spending more on Pastor Maldonado ridiculous Formula 1 career than on Venezuelan main technological university, USB, but that with their spare change they also are sponsoring cars in other races such as Le Mans with team 44...  (hat tip: BDK)

The mind reels....
Then again PDVSA does not appear as sponsor but Avior Airlines which one wonders how in hell they manage to make enough money in Venezuela to sponsor such a thing.... Who are the owners of Avior these days? Duncan also is a sponsor...  What about CADIVI? Do they do dollars for such type of sponsoring that is of little use in Venezuela but no dollars for students abroad?