So, after years of trashing the US, of threatening to cut the oil supply there, of announcing that he would prefer to sell cheaper and at credit to China than fair price for cash to the US, what does Chavez said yesterday? No, no, please keep buying our oil!
Well, he did it a little bit better by pretending to mask his argument in that the US will not be able to free its dependency from Venezuela. Still, it seems that both comments from McCain and Obama reached Miraflores as to Venezuela being cut off the US within 10 years. Certainly, in Chavez megalomania plans to remain in power for ever, that he will not be able to bash the US anymore whenever convenient is not something very reassuring for him. So now, in yet another perilous somersault, he speaks softly to the US as it is, well, too late.
It is a good thing that ridicule does not kill.
It is also good for him that he cultivates the ignorance and codependency of his followers..... In a normal country he would have been dismissed and judged fast for threatening the biggest life line of our economy without anything viable to replace it with. But luckily for him we are, overall, a mediocre country and I suppose we deserve that clown until we learn our lesson, if we are able to learn anything.
-The end-
Friday, October 17, 2008
Thursday, October 16, 2008
When scientists stop being scientists: IVIC direction sucking up to Chavez!
I found in my mail box this IVIC communique, sent to me by a scientist friend of mine. IVIC is supposed to be the top research center in Venezuela and as you can read for yourself it seems that at least the scientists that form the direction of the IVIC have renounced to their scientific persona. Click to enlarge.
Translation:
I have a close friend in IVIC and in my past scientific career I even went there to present the results of my work in the US, thinking naively at the time that perhaps I could apply for a job there. Quickly I realized that for bureaucratic reasons it would probably be easier to become a faculty at Harvard than a dishwasher at IVIC. So, if already then it was difficult to deal with the IVIC structure imagine how it is now that chavismo has managed to impose a direction board AGAINST the wishes of the researchers. Truly the working conditions of the remaining scientist at the IVIC must be near unbearable when they read communiques such as this garbage shown above posted on their name. I hope that at least a few of them will have the wits to send such texts to Nature and Science editorial boards to warn their international colleagues of how low science is falling in Venezuela.
What next? A Venezuelan Lysenko?
PS: you can find this communique in the IVIC news page by downloading their newsletter here.
-The end-
Translation:
[We the IVIC board]...in front of the public accusations of "magnicidio" attempts and the obscure intentions of political destabilization that come out from communication and dirty war laboratories, eager to annihilate our democratic system, and in front of our historical role to transfer knowledge to the Venezuelan people and to put science and research at their service, we agreed on:From this we can see again why is it that rarely scientists enter the world of politics because, well, they suck at it as you can read by yourself. Getting into politics is as alien to science as possible and the board of IVIC by signing such an uncalled for communique shows to us that they have stopped being scientists, that any inquisitive and critical faculty that they might have enjoyed at some point in their career has been duly erased in order to praise their new sovereign. Heck! they do not even know anymore the proper definition of the word "laboratory"!
1- Manifest publicly IVIC support to the president, Comandante Hugo Chavez, to the Bolivarian Government and to the actions taken in defense of our sovereignty, attacked by public opinion matrix [sic] prefabricated y our country and abroad to disqualify the legitimacy and the democratic character of our government.
2- [comes something about Bolivia that is off topic]
I have a close friend in IVIC and in my past scientific career I even went there to present the results of my work in the US, thinking naively at the time that perhaps I could apply for a job there. Quickly I realized that for bureaucratic reasons it would probably be easier to become a faculty at Harvard than a dishwasher at IVIC. So, if already then it was difficult to deal with the IVIC structure imagine how it is now that chavismo has managed to impose a direction board AGAINST the wishes of the researchers. Truly the working conditions of the remaining scientist at the IVIC must be near unbearable when they read communiques such as this garbage shown above posted on their name. I hope that at least a few of them will have the wits to send such texts to Nature and Science editorial boards to warn their international colleagues of how low science is falling in Venezuela.
What next? A Venezuelan Lysenko?
PS: you can find this communique in the IVIC news page by downloading their newsletter here.
-The end-
Obama and McCain agree on one thing
Last night debate brought to us the inevitability of an Obama presidency. But does it matter as far as Venezuela is concerned? As far as we can see both candidates pledged to free themselves from the dependency on Venezuelan oil. That they can achieve it in 10 years is another matter, but what is clear is that Chavez has no friends in the next administration.
-The end-
-The end-
The HRW expulsion from Venezuela
Vivanco has published his version on how he was expelled from Venezuela a couple of weeks ago. A must read. Hat tip PB.
-The end-
-The end-
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
The consequences of words: how Chavez is changing the stakes in November election
This regional election is turning to be much worse than anything we have seen so far. Two elements have come to play in the last 2-3 weeks and they could (will?) have dire consequences. These two new factors are:
A presidential involvement in a local election as we have never seen in the country.
It is not that presidents did not try to influence the election of their successor before Chavez, or that Chavez has not intervened in all elections, it is that the level seen this time is just inconceivable, not to say unconstitutional. Chavez has become the real governor candidate in almost every state and soon I suppose in major urban centers. In the past, before reelection was allowed, presidents did what they could to help their potential successor, but it was discrete and without any direct involvement by the sitting president. When separated local elections became the norm presidents might have expressed tactfully their wishes, but none would have attended the meeting of their favored candidate. Chavez not only attends but runs the meeting.
A vulgarity and vileness in the political discourse of Chavez, and chavistas, that we have never seen before!
Yes, Chavez has broken the bounds of acceptable discourse in the past, an occasional insult would come through, some scatological remark "accidentally" happen. But until now the "charming" qualities of Chavez made apologists think that it was accidental, just a spur of the moment. But no matter what prowess of exculpation specialists like Jose Vicente Rangel did, civilians like yours truly were never fooled. As you can hear yourself in the video I recently posted, the level of vulgarity, violence and even hate that Chavez has been using in his recent speeches has gone beyond the Pale.
What is going on
Very simple, Chavez sees his fortunes sagging and his narcissistic ego cannot take it. Thus he thinks he is the only one that can solve the election problem and he invests himself totally in it. In addition he must be prodded by the need to score some victory somewhere since he basically has not won anything since late 2007. Considering that he has created around himself a system of yes men combined with thugs and ransackers of the treasury, there is no one that dares to tell him what is going on, nor is he likely to listen anyway.
The consequences
Crisis? What crisis?
For the foreign observer unaware of the intricacies of Venezuela politics the plain observation is that the Venezuelan government is the only one in the world not dealing with the global crisis. So far we only heard from Chavez first that Venezuela was invulnerable, then that maybe not but no worry, that measures were taken. We are waiting for these measures.
From his ministers only words such as "socialism protects us" "money is safer in Venezuela than anywhere else" and other such inanities uttered at totally irrelevant meetings of leftist intellectuals that have no idea on how a market economy runs. Apparently the ministers in question think that Venezuela has left the market economy crowd, and I am afraid reality will cruelly bring those ministers out of their cocoon.
In other words the Chavez administration is dedicated to the election, just like their boss. Nothing will be done until November 24, unless something catastrophic happens in Venezuela (it is already happening, the parallel rate skyrocketed and the Venezuelan bonds lost more than half their value but no one higher up talks about these trivialities). One thing we can be sure of is that this delay in avoiding facing the issues will cost us a few extra hundred million dollars when the reaper comes knocking at our door.
Chavez makes thing more dangerous for himself
When I first started my series on 2008 elections I did write that I expected the opposition to be happy in getting between 6 to 8 states and that a 10 states sweep could be considered a major defeat for Chavez. By turning this election a vote between Chavez and the opposition or dissident local candidate this numbers could turn against Chavez. Not only that but he makes it even worse by fixing himself the goal to win as many states as in 2004, if not even picking up the lone two states held by the opposition.
The first lesson of democracy (something of course out of the reach of Chavez neuronal connections) is that after 10 years of rule it is 99% impossible to improve a 2 to 22 advantage. If if you have the best administration in the world a good result, an excellent result even, would be, say, 4 to 18. But Chavez seems to spend more negative energy in winning Nueva Esparta and Zulia than preserving the seats that are in danger. Thus he is committing a cardinal mistake: he is lowering the perceived success bar for the opposition while making himself a more direct failure recipient if the opposition is seen as successful. That is, if 2 months ago I was calling a 10 to 14 result a great opposition victory, now a 7-8 victory would do just as well. The more so if these 7 states include Zulia, Carabobo, Miranda and Caracas at large. In fact, the degree of involvement of Chavez makes that if the opposition were to retain Zulia and Nueva Esparta, and gain only Miranda, Caracas and Carabobo, it would be perceived in public opinion as a strong advance, and a significant weakening of Chavez strength. That result two month ago would have been only nice, maybe weak, now it will be great; unfortunately for Chavez that is the way political psychology works.
The risks for post electoral violence and political instability are fast increasing
The problem with Chavez increasingly obscene language is that it is directed to his core base. For some reason he thinks that being vulgar and violent will get him two results: flush away the timorous and mobilize his core base. That might have worked in 2006 with the "rojo, rojito" speech, when Chavez favorable opinion was unaccountably above 50% courtesy of high oil prices. But today things are different. Chavez favorable opinion has been steadily eroding and such a discourse can equally mobilize his core base as erode it further and faster. It is too early to tell but one can sense intuitively that it is a dangerous gambit for him this time around.
It is also a double gambit as enough supporters of dissident chavismo (PPT and PCV) might be sick enough of being treated as traitors that they might either mobilize in larger numbers to vote for their candidates or even worse, vote opposition to punish Chavez for his insults! There are enough close mayor election that such a punishing strategy could cost chavismo a dozen of city halls, plus a couple of dozens of city hall to the dissidence that would be pissed enough at Chavez to start ruling with support from the opposition.
But that would not be the issue here: the issue is that these hard core chavistas whipped into a frenzy by Chavez might be much harder to control once the elections are gone. To begin with, those in losing electoral districts will be angry enough not to recognize the new local authorities. But more of a concern is the creation of a cult to violence, of fascist character, that will create big problems in Venezuela. We are not used to such violence as the political norm, and even if only a small amount of chavistas really go the deep end it will be a group significant enough to cause Venezuela problems for years, if not for decades.
The worst part is that this violence could remain after Chavez is gone. We just need to look across the border to see how 50 years of violence where generated by people irresponsibly stroking violence from both sides after Gaitan was murdered.
And thus we see Chavez unnecessarily creating conditions that will make his rule more difficult, that could make his departure a closer reality, that would make the transition period much more complex and dangerous. And all that for his personal ambition to be president for life. Just like Hitler who had no qualms destroying Germany. All proportions guarded of course, but it is the same principles behind that madness of Chavez.
-The end-
A presidential involvement in a local election as we have never seen in the country.
It is not that presidents did not try to influence the election of their successor before Chavez, or that Chavez has not intervened in all elections, it is that the level seen this time is just inconceivable, not to say unconstitutional. Chavez has become the real governor candidate in almost every state and soon I suppose in major urban centers. In the past, before reelection was allowed, presidents did what they could to help their potential successor, but it was discrete and without any direct involvement by the sitting president. When separated local elections became the norm presidents might have expressed tactfully their wishes, but none would have attended the meeting of their favored candidate. Chavez not only attends but runs the meeting.
A vulgarity and vileness in the political discourse of Chavez, and chavistas, that we have never seen before!
Yes, Chavez has broken the bounds of acceptable discourse in the past, an occasional insult would come through, some scatological remark "accidentally" happen. But until now the "charming" qualities of Chavez made apologists think that it was accidental, just a spur of the moment. But no matter what prowess of exculpation specialists like Jose Vicente Rangel did, civilians like yours truly were never fooled. As you can hear yourself in the video I recently posted, the level of vulgarity, violence and even hate that Chavez has been using in his recent speeches has gone beyond the Pale.
What is going on
Very simple, Chavez sees his fortunes sagging and his narcissistic ego cannot take it. Thus he thinks he is the only one that can solve the election problem and he invests himself totally in it. In addition he must be prodded by the need to score some victory somewhere since he basically has not won anything since late 2007. Considering that he has created around himself a system of yes men combined with thugs and ransackers of the treasury, there is no one that dares to tell him what is going on, nor is he likely to listen anyway.
The consequences
Crisis? What crisis?
For the foreign observer unaware of the intricacies of Venezuela politics the plain observation is that the Venezuelan government is the only one in the world not dealing with the global crisis. So far we only heard from Chavez first that Venezuela was invulnerable, then that maybe not but no worry, that measures were taken. We are waiting for these measures.
From his ministers only words such as "socialism protects us" "money is safer in Venezuela than anywhere else" and other such inanities uttered at totally irrelevant meetings of leftist intellectuals that have no idea on how a market economy runs. Apparently the ministers in question think that Venezuela has left the market economy crowd, and I am afraid reality will cruelly bring those ministers out of their cocoon.
In other words the Chavez administration is dedicated to the election, just like their boss. Nothing will be done until November 24, unless something catastrophic happens in Venezuela (it is already happening, the parallel rate skyrocketed and the Venezuelan bonds lost more than half their value but no one higher up talks about these trivialities). One thing we can be sure of is that this delay in avoiding facing the issues will cost us a few extra hundred million dollars when the reaper comes knocking at our door.
Chavez makes thing more dangerous for himself
When I first started my series on 2008 elections I did write that I expected the opposition to be happy in getting between 6 to 8 states and that a 10 states sweep could be considered a major defeat for Chavez. By turning this election a vote between Chavez and the opposition or dissident local candidate this numbers could turn against Chavez. Not only that but he makes it even worse by fixing himself the goal to win as many states as in 2004, if not even picking up the lone two states held by the opposition.
The first lesson of democracy (something of course out of the reach of Chavez neuronal connections) is that after 10 years of rule it is 99% impossible to improve a 2 to 22 advantage. If if you have the best administration in the world a good result, an excellent result even, would be, say, 4 to 18. But Chavez seems to spend more negative energy in winning Nueva Esparta and Zulia than preserving the seats that are in danger. Thus he is committing a cardinal mistake: he is lowering the perceived success bar for the opposition while making himself a more direct failure recipient if the opposition is seen as successful. That is, if 2 months ago I was calling a 10 to 14 result a great opposition victory, now a 7-8 victory would do just as well. The more so if these 7 states include Zulia, Carabobo, Miranda and Caracas at large. In fact, the degree of involvement of Chavez makes that if the opposition were to retain Zulia and Nueva Esparta, and gain only Miranda, Caracas and Carabobo, it would be perceived in public opinion as a strong advance, and a significant weakening of Chavez strength. That result two month ago would have been only nice, maybe weak, now it will be great; unfortunately for Chavez that is the way political psychology works.
The risks for post electoral violence and political instability are fast increasing
The problem with Chavez increasingly obscene language is that it is directed to his core base. For some reason he thinks that being vulgar and violent will get him two results: flush away the timorous and mobilize his core base. That might have worked in 2006 with the "rojo, rojito" speech, when Chavez favorable opinion was unaccountably above 50% courtesy of high oil prices. But today things are different. Chavez favorable opinion has been steadily eroding and such a discourse can equally mobilize his core base as erode it further and faster. It is too early to tell but one can sense intuitively that it is a dangerous gambit for him this time around.
It is also a double gambit as enough supporters of dissident chavismo (PPT and PCV) might be sick enough of being treated as traitors that they might either mobilize in larger numbers to vote for their candidates or even worse, vote opposition to punish Chavez for his insults! There are enough close mayor election that such a punishing strategy could cost chavismo a dozen of city halls, plus a couple of dozens of city hall to the dissidence that would be pissed enough at Chavez to start ruling with support from the opposition.
But that would not be the issue here: the issue is that these hard core chavistas whipped into a frenzy by Chavez might be much harder to control once the elections are gone. To begin with, those in losing electoral districts will be angry enough not to recognize the new local authorities. But more of a concern is the creation of a cult to violence, of fascist character, that will create big problems in Venezuela. We are not used to such violence as the political norm, and even if only a small amount of chavistas really go the deep end it will be a group significant enough to cause Venezuela problems for years, if not for decades.
The worst part is that this violence could remain after Chavez is gone. We just need to look across the border to see how 50 years of violence where generated by people irresponsibly stroking violence from both sides after Gaitan was murdered.
And thus we see Chavez unnecessarily creating conditions that will make his rule more difficult, that could make his departure a closer reality, that would make the transition period much more complex and dangerous. And all that for his personal ambition to be president for life. Just like Hitler who had no qualms destroying Germany. All proportions guarded of course, but it is the same principles behind that madness of Chavez.
-The end-
Reconstructing Venezuela
With the drop in oil prices, the obvious madness of Chavez and the slow reawakening of a more combative opposition perhaps it is time to consider discussing ways in which Venezuela can be recovered and rebuilt. The New York Times ever helpful brings us the first problem that will need to be resolved, via Zimbabwe.
Apparently the agreement brokered by defenestrated Thabo Mbeki is sinking fast because the military that orchestrated the massive beatings and killings during the last electoral campaign are afraid that they are going to be judicially prosecuted. Imagine that! And let's not discuss all the loot the military took in the past decade or so (the article does not even go into that aspect). So Mugabe has decided to retain all the key political ministries and let Tsvangirai take care of the boring economic stuff where people will be expecting a miracle that will not come, even less if the military are allowed to continue looting that last crumbs available in the country. Morgan ain't buying, understandably.
This is pretty much what is expecting us. For at least six years a new political class has been allowed to grow corrupt and fat and these people do feel scared that their loot might be taken away from them, or that they will be thrown to jail for allowing the loot or taking part in it. We can think of Diosdado, Jorge Rodriguez, Rafael Ramirez, Isaias Rodriguez or Jose Vicente Rangel as people that have a lot on their conscience and cannot possibly look at a Chavez departure from power with a still heart.
The military is in equally bad shape. Since February 2004 there are plenty of Human Rights violations that could be nailed on them. And the looting started since since the "Plan Bolivar 200" where some characters such as Cruz Weffer looted so much that Chavez was forced to put them in the background, when not mounting a mock prosecution, that is, they are placed under investigation and we never hear anything from it anymore while they quietly make their loot flourish away in different sorts of money laundering schemes.
And let's not even get involved into all the flourishing drug trafficking in Venezuela or does anyone think that an increase in drug busts does not mean that there is also an increase in drug trafficking through the country? Who controls the ways through which traffic goes? The opposition politicians? The Civil Government? OR the armed forces? Probably all but I am sure your guess as to who as the lion's share is the same as mine.
Chavismo has created a politically and corrupt higher class of power, a class that now works more along the lines of mafia deals than of political give and take. A class whose penetration by mafia rules also implies that violence as a way to deal with problems is acceptable. And a class that holds all of the guns and that will have no problems sending young indoctrinated recruits beat up on us as it happened in Zimbabwe. We, as the opposition must think as of today in ways to deal with that problem that we will inherit from Chavez. Outright amnesty is not possible but total revenge could end up costing us much more.
-The end-
Apparently the agreement brokered by defenestrated Thabo Mbeki is sinking fast because the military that orchestrated the massive beatings and killings during the last electoral campaign are afraid that they are going to be judicially prosecuted. Imagine that! And let's not discuss all the loot the military took in the past decade or so (the article does not even go into that aspect). So Mugabe has decided to retain all the key political ministries and let Tsvangirai take care of the boring economic stuff where people will be expecting a miracle that will not come, even less if the military are allowed to continue looting that last crumbs available in the country. Morgan ain't buying, understandably.
This is pretty much what is expecting us. For at least six years a new political class has been allowed to grow corrupt and fat and these people do feel scared that their loot might be taken away from them, or that they will be thrown to jail for allowing the loot or taking part in it. We can think of Diosdado, Jorge Rodriguez, Rafael Ramirez, Isaias Rodriguez or Jose Vicente Rangel as people that have a lot on their conscience and cannot possibly look at a Chavez departure from power with a still heart.
The military is in equally bad shape. Since February 2004 there are plenty of Human Rights violations that could be nailed on them. And the looting started since since the "Plan Bolivar 200" where some characters such as Cruz Weffer looted so much that Chavez was forced to put them in the background, when not mounting a mock prosecution, that is, they are placed under investigation and we never hear anything from it anymore while they quietly make their loot flourish away in different sorts of money laundering schemes.
And let's not even get involved into all the flourishing drug trafficking in Venezuela or does anyone think that an increase in drug busts does not mean that there is also an increase in drug trafficking through the country? Who controls the ways through which traffic goes? The opposition politicians? The Civil Government? OR the armed forces? Probably all but I am sure your guess as to who as the lion's share is the same as mine.
Chavismo has created a politically and corrupt higher class of power, a class that now works more along the lines of mafia deals than of political give and take. A class whose penetration by mafia rules also implies that violence as a way to deal with problems is acceptable. And a class that holds all of the guns and that will have no problems sending young indoctrinated recruits beat up on us as it happened in Zimbabwe. We, as the opposition must think as of today in ways to deal with that problem that we will inherit from Chavez. Outright amnesty is not possible but total revenge could end up costing us much more.
-The end-
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Chavez the democrat?
[Updated] In the past few days of the 11/23 campaign we have heard from Chavez these following pearls:
- the PPT and the PCV (Venezuela's old and indestructible Communist Party) will be erased from the political map (apparently more important to Chavez than his real opposition).
- he will not send any money to states and cities that do not elect Chavez's candidates (as if he coudl go above the law and the constitution at will to discriminate who he wanted).
- he grievously insulted in a meeting the local candidates for Zulia state positions (in a state devoted to the Virgen de la Chiquinquira you do not use the term "desgraciado").
- and other gems but we are limiting ourselves to the three recent biggies, and most telling.
Now, as I have often pointed, the international crowd of Chavez supporters (mercifully dwindling!) has advanced as their main (when not only) excuse for all of Chavez abuses that he had won I do not know how many elections and thus he was a democrat and reflected the will of the people. Besides poorly reflecting on their own concept of democracy, their excuse was very vulnerable because it never considered Chavez in front of an unfavorable electoral scenario, the true test of a democrat, the test that extraordinary people like Churchill or De Gaulle passed brilliantly. Since December 2007 Chavez has finally been confronted with a real test at the polls and his true nature is for all to see: he is acting everyday more like the true fascist he has always been. The three recent items cited above are clear: such antics, betrayals of formers allies and personalization of power are reserved for the Mussolinis of this world.
Weil today summarizes very well what a fascist-revolutionary is:
What? Who is a true revolutionary?
This is a true revolutionary!
Update: I thought that I coudl post a video where you can appreciate all the hate that emanates from Chavez these days. Youtube carries something edited by Megaresistencia and it is good enough as it does not comment, just let Chavez speak on his own words. It is important for US readers not familiar with cultural quirks of Venezuela that repeatedly calling Rosales "desgraciado", out of divine grace, is much stronger than what you might think at all. Let's say that McCain recent comment about whipping Obama is very mild, something that both candidates could joke at it in public at the next debate as in" good one Mc!" " well, you know, after you called Sarah this, I had to say something". In other words, IN VENEZUELA, the Zulia words of Chavez are beyond repair: there is no way he can apologize from what you will see in that video. Worry not about the words, just look at the puffed and distorted face of hate from Chavez. Truly scary!
-The end-
- the PPT and the PCV (Venezuela's old and indestructible Communist Party) will be erased from the political map (apparently more important to Chavez than his real opposition).
- he will not send any money to states and cities that do not elect Chavez's candidates (as if he coudl go above the law and the constitution at will to discriminate who he wanted).
- he grievously insulted in a meeting the local candidates for Zulia state positions (in a state devoted to the Virgen de la Chiquinquira you do not use the term "desgraciado").
- and other gems but we are limiting ourselves to the three recent biggies, and most telling.
Now, as I have often pointed, the international crowd of Chavez supporters (mercifully dwindling!) has advanced as their main (when not only) excuse for all of Chavez abuses that he had won I do not know how many elections and thus he was a democrat and reflected the will of the people. Besides poorly reflecting on their own concept of democracy, their excuse was very vulnerable because it never considered Chavez in front of an unfavorable electoral scenario, the true test of a democrat, the test that extraordinary people like Churchill or De Gaulle passed brilliantly. Since December 2007 Chavez has finally been confronted with a real test at the polls and his true nature is for all to see: he is acting everyday more like the true fascist he has always been. The three recent items cited above are clear: such antics, betrayals of formers allies and personalization of power are reserved for the Mussolinis of this world.
Weil today summarizes very well what a fascist-revolutionary is:
What? Who is a true revolutionary?This is a true revolutionary!
-The end-
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