Monday, August 06, 2012

Sean Penn backs Chavez who backs Ameliach: how to lose an election

Woman breaking CNE rules, Sean boy, Chavez and booed Ameliach
The Chavez campaign is not doing very well.  And it keeps adding errors. One does not need to read polls to sense that the ship is adrift, unable to land anywhere.  Even BBC's new man in Caracas (a woman this election, Sarah Grainger) senses it as opposed to the now discredited cheerleaders of, say, Reuters who have bought Chavez putative victory bait, hook and sink; and today once again! Proving that Reuters is the lone species to trip over and over the same fake polls.  A brief analysis of what happened in Carabobo state today will illustrate my point.

We are now in the middle of the campaign and Chavez has all the trouble in the world to make a couple of outings a week when Capriles is hitting the roads daily, for miles and miles.  Not only that, but Chavez is isolated from the scant masses on top of a float of sorts which makes him look sillily distant. Bad enough as it is, his cross current initiatives make things worse, while without any logical explanation Sean Penn is watching as if he were a big star bringing votes in Carabobo....

In Carabobo Chavez had been promoting Maduro, current foreign minister (if we can call his role charitably this way) for the governor seat. Well, nobody ever really believed Maduro would be the final candidate and it has been months that Puerto Cabello mayor, Lacava, had been promoting himself "just in case" Maduro were called elsewhere in the regime. Today, Francisco Ameliach was named the official candidate.  Before entering in some of the possible reasons for that, let's note that apparently some in the crowd were bold enough to shout their discontent at Chavez and call for Lacava (which doomed his political future, by the way). Chavez got pissed and showed what a great democrat he is, attacking the hecklers, stating that he is the only one that matters and that he is the one deciding who runs where.  The video below will tell you even if you do not understand Spanish (note that for once the attendance was better than usual, maybe a Sean Penn effect? maybe Lacava organizational skills? And also note that some clueless guy wears the cap of Capriles on the left side, the one that the CNE tried to forbid....).

This is much worse than what the folklore part of it would lead you to think.

First, governors elections are early December. The opposition has all of its guys up and running and Chavez is STILL deciding who runs or not, and keeps changing them!!!! They lecture about such mistakes in "Electoral strategies 101".  A political movement would be only so careless if they knew that a defeat in October would seal the fate of the Ameliaches of the PSUV.  In other words, a clear admission by the PSUV that without Chavez they are nothing, that they are losing and that all priorities have to be focused on him.

Second, even if admitting that such a name change is needed, the timing and manner and choice is dismal, reflecting how out of touch Chavez has grown.  For his supporters to dare to defy Chavez as they did today tells us volumes.  For Chavez to pick up a military reconverted in shadow political operator and "prosperous bolibourgeois" over Lacava, who for all his own faults at least hits the streets of Carabobo is poor judgment from Chavez, an indication of a defensive posture, of rounding up the old carts. Ameliach has gotta be one of the most discredited figure of the PSUV, in the PSUV!!! But he is a 1992 military......

Meanwhile Capriles was in chavista heartland of Caracas, Catia neighborhood, with quite a turnout himself. Which did not stop him from making yet another positive apparition in Zulia state that afternoon, with the well established candidate for the state house.....

Draw your own conclusions.


NOTE: why is Maduro out of the ring? One explanation already out on twitter is that Chavez is not going to make it and that Maduro has to prepare the transition.  Castro's orders even! Whether this is true is irrelevant: it has been clear all along that Maduro was a reluctant candidate for anything and that what he likes is the Caracas scene.  The more so that Maduro has no administrative talent has established in his now long ministry tenure, is bored by it. Plus, he certainly cannot watch over his succession rights from Valencia.



Coinciding with the Olympics, the megalomaniac tantrum temper of Chavez inspired Weil yet another brilliant cartoon


  1. Anonymous5:30 AM

    Seems that number three from left to right has the "Capriles Cap " !

  2. hoped to read a lot more about capriles in zulia, just came home from there and it was awesome, not just a political event but a cultural one, sad to see that now days what happens in zulia stays in zulia... someone should be making the billboard vegas style right en el venado.
    (overall though, not specifically about your blog...)

    1. Hey! Cut that out! Nothing can be covered 24/24.

      Capriles had a big hit in Yaracuy last week, my home state, and i could not cocer it.

      Zulia is no news. The news is when Capriles scores big in supposedly chavista grounds. If we had to cocer Zulia everytime that would mean our campaign is in trouble. Count your blessings.

  3. Nice to read from you, Monsieur le Yaracuyien.
    Chávez is indeed getting desperate.
    I will translate those words into German for the article Elections in Venezuela 2012...they are price-less! There couldn't be a better example of banana republic autocrat than Chávez

  4. Some people I know from Carabobo told me that Lacava was a better-than-average candidate for Chavismo and had a shot against Salas Feo, but Chavez's ego destroyed those chances once again by trusting probably the worst candidate possible: Ameliach was chosen out of loyalty, nothing else. At least Lacava has a tangible governing record. The response of Chavez in the rally says it all people need to know about his situation and we're only in August.

    1. I do not think Lacava had much of a chance. His record is not that great, though admittedly better than your average chavista official. He also has a disturbing narcissistic problem, placing self promoting placards with his wife everywhere, even outside his Puerto Cabello district. Come to think of it, this may have been his undoing with Chavez.....

    2. Daniel is right. Lacava was promoting himself heavily in such places as Juan José Mora and Naguanagua. On the other side, I have to own up Salas Römer is not precisely our best man...too feudal...actually like Enzo Scarano...but that's what we have and we, people from Greater Valencia,
      are definitely oppos.

      Ameliach is not just loyal, he such a pathetic sycophant! I read some of his tweets about Chávez...¡qué adulador tan miserable!

    3. You're right about that Daniel. People I know from Puerto Cabello have told me that.

      Ameliach is the worst choice possible, period.

    4. "He also has a disturbing narcissistic problem, placing self promoting placards with his wife everywhere, even outside his Puerto Cabello district. Come to think of it, this may have been his undoing with Chavez....."

      IN-teresting. Remember the apparent visibility demotion of Godgiven Hair, after those rogue posters came out with DH's announced candidacy?

      My personal experiences with a manic depressive that has narcissistic tendencies would have me agree with you. NOthing gets them as riled as having to share the platform with another. Never mind that the differences are so disparate as to cancel out any possible competition. Just the fact of having to share the spotlight is enough to send these md's into orbit.

    5. Substitute DH with GH (Godgiven Hair = Diosdado Cabello).

  5. Island Canuck2:05 PM

    It seems that everything he does these days is going wrong.

    The poor turnouts in many of his appearances.

    People throwing things at him.

    His obsession with HCR's hat

    His continued belittling of HCR & his followers.

    His complete lack of any new ideas.

    I said it before & it bears repeating - the pueblo is just tired of 14 years of Chavismo & is looking for something new.

    Hay un camino!

  6. I don't see it that way... I think Chavez knows that nobody is going to defeat Salas and in order to save Maduro and try to hold on to Puerto Cabello, he didn't choose Lacava. What we are watching is a Chavez trying to do some damage control in order to keep PSUV alive after his defeat.

    1. well, if Ch. thought that by naming Ameliach, he could keep the Peosuvé alive, in the face of a Salas win, he failed! For Lacava would have given the Peosuvé more points in the area than would Ameliach.

    2. Salas Feo can be defeated. He has managed skilfully his alliances that the MUD had to support him. He should win but against Ameliach it is going to be much easier......

  7. Island Canuck2:33 AM

    Unfortunately it's just like Morel here in Margarita. Nobody really wants him but he'll handily beat the PSUV candidate, another military general.

    They really should have given us the option of a primary here.

    1. Indeed. It is amazing how bad Chavismo has to be that we would prefer to vote for these crappy "oppos". They represent the worst of feudal Venezuela and yet they could - ceteris paribus - beat the Chavista option...Salas is related to people who have been in power in Valencia since the XIX century. Scarano is new blood but he acts as feudally as Salas and getting worse with the stuff he does with his famiglia.
      Dios mío, qué hemos hecho nosotros los venezolanos para tener semejantes líderes feudales?

  8. Anonymous4:33 AM

    It would probably be unwise to say such things if I lived in Venezuela, but I don't, so here is MY prediction: Assuming he lives long enough, Chavez is going to steal the election in a landslide - probably 2 to 1 or better in his favor. The vote will be decried as dirty by much of the world and anyone with any sense will see it's true. Once Chavez wins, he will simply strip any unsupportive governors of their power.

  9. I wonder if besides the fear factor there isn't something like the 'Bradley Effect' going on.The Bradley effect theorizes that the inaccurate polls were skewed by the phenomenon of social desirability bias.

    Maybe there are people who have actually decided they don't like Chavez but do not admit it openly due to the fact that most of their friends do.....this would be related to the fear factor but the fear would be more psychological than a fear of repercussions...

    1. Anonymous11:24 PM

      It is still not safe to be openly against Chavez. Chavista ideology imposes punishment on non-supporters. Of course the polls are skewed by fear of repercussions and by social fears of being surrounded by Chavistas.

  10. Charly2:29 AM

    Electoral event,... or wife beaters pow wow?

  11. 2012 ...

    Chavez loses
    Obama loses


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