The last poll before election of Consultores 21 is out and as expected the rise of Capriles kept going on and now he is leading OUTSIDE of the error margin of 2,7%. Capriles is now leading 48,9 to 45,7. That is 3,2%. Incidentally my spread number on September 17 was 2,2 for Capriles. Thus my conservative number being below the one of Consultores 21, I am happy.
Yet this poll is for the second week of September, a full week after the latest one of Datanalisis, and post Cupira, post Amuay. So there is all possibility that Capriles may get a couple of points more before October 7 and considering his spectacular events in Tucupita, Maturin and Maracay, all indicates that yes, he is gaining further traction.
There are bad news for Chavez. The young vote is going 56,3% for Capriles. Chavez only wins in the 45 year old and more group. Clearly; change is wished for. The other even worse news is that when people were asked who they would vote Capriles lead by only 0,8% whereas when asked to drop a ballot in a box, sight unseen, that advantage rose to 3,2%, half of "undecided" suddenly voting for Capriles, none for Chavez. Clearly, a fear factor exists and if we are to believe Consultores 21 it is about 3-4% of the voting population.
Will there be another major poll before Sunday? Right now we can hope for one from Mercanalisis and Keller, and maybe a "correction" from Datanalisis which has been admitting that they think most undecided will go to Capriles if they vote and thus their result would become a statistical tie. After Sunday, no more poll publication allowed, at least inside Venezuela. Though I am sure that pro Chavez pollsters will have no problem breaking the law in Internet. But even them admit that the spread in favor of Chavez is not that big anymore. However VN&V will break the CNE embargo by publishing its last estimates next Monday <evil grin>
Thursday, September 27, 2012
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As I always say, Daniel, you are the best. Thanks! I'll be looking out for those estimates (I expect a landslide :)
ReplyDeleteGold
Well Daniel this is just what I needed. Yesterday I had my first pre-7O night with nightmares of Chavez winning. After reading this post I hope I can sleep better tonight.
ReplyDeleteDaniel, keep optimistic.
ReplyDeleteThe alternatives are too terrible to consider.
The country will be a wasteland with another 6 years of Chavez
Anxiety is killing me!....I cant se myself sleeping well until HCR takes power!...
ReplyDelete"The young vote is going 56,3% for Capriles."
ReplyDeleteYes. That's the part of the poll that gave me the most hope. After 14 years of continuous attempts to brainwash every young mind into thinking Chavez is god, they have failed miserably. The young, aka the future of Venezuela, know chavismo is the worst thing that's happened to Venezuela. Hopefully this will prevent any Peronism from spouting in Venezuela after Chavez finally dies.
Oh My God no. If Chavez becomes the Peron of Venezuela and Chavismo turns into a permanent political force we are really screwed!
DeleteYeah, I also found that very interesting, though from a different angle. In the U.S., at least, and other places, the youth vote tends to break liberal and the older voters tend to go conservative. ("Show me a young Conservative and I'll show you someone with no heart. Show me an old Liberal and I'll show you someone with no brains. - Winston Churchill")
DeleteDoes that make Hugo the conservative in this race? :D
AIO
DeleteChavez IS the conservative candidate. He does not want ANYTHING to change, just keep as it is as himself as the lone source of all that is worth anything.
In that sense, I know, but I think there are more ways to make that argument. Regardless, it makes it quite ironic by this time for liberal PSFs to be supporting him still. I think the ones that still are are the folks who have a very hard time admitting they are wrong. In other words, their support now is less about Chavez and more about themselves.
DeleteImagine the daily 'high' of reading the political and economic news on Vz, during Capriles' honeymoon, following his inauguration.
ReplyDeletethere will be an increase in english writing blogger unemployment......
DeleteUnless something " strange" happens I also expect a landslide, like Island Canuck, just based on my perceptions on the talks I have had with so many people.
ReplyDeleteBut unlike Island, I feel uncertain of the path after that.
Note: I said uncertain, not pessimistic or optimistic
It would appear that the powers that be( Congress, Army Generals, Governors et al ) will remain- at least for sometime.
I think for any country to make a profound change it is much more about inner transformations and learning experiences than about election outcomes.I think this is clear from by the transition we had from the 4th Republic to Chavismo, so I hope this election reflects a real change, in every sense of the word.Firepigette
Daniel have you seen this?
ReplyDeletehttp://es.scribd.com/doc/106465281/Segun-encuesta-de-Datanalisis-Capriles-gana-en-Miranda-y-en-Lara
Datanalisis saying Capriles is also winning in lara by 10%. How can this be possible. Lara by 10 Miranda by 15% and he still loses the general election? No way jose.
do yourself a favor and stop worrying about polls. they should be consulted but not taken to task.
Deleteby the way, i was giving more votes to capriles in lara than in miranda, % wise, that is.
Daniel...I can hear the closures of many suitcases even here in Canada. Am sure Eva is busy filling her bags along with many of her co horts. Hopefully the airlines stick to their weight limits...Gold Bars are heavy!! The news is heartening...you deserve a medal. Thankyou for your profound efforts in keeping us updated all these years. Whatever the outcome of 07...your work has not gone unnoticed. Bless you...from a grateful and, thanks to you...a well informed Margarita Canadian.....
ReplyDelete1st you accepted the constitution.
ReplyDelete2nd you accepted the missions.
Next you will accept the cooperation with Cuba, Belarus, China, Russian, Iran.
Then you will accept the consejos & comunas.
Later, you will accept the expropriations.
Finally, you will be a socialist too.
65% for Chavez next Sunday. Many polls called a close race in 2006 and remember what happened.
i would be more careful when writing such gross generalizations. not to mention that in 2006 polls were not as close as they are today, all pointing to a chavez victory, including this page.
DeleteAnonymous, I hope you get re-incarnated as a poor uneducated black female in Cuba. Then you will understand socialism.
DeleteThis is like a marathon where the lead changes with 2 miles left. I hope Capriles leaves Chavez in a cloud of dust.
ReplyDeleteOnly this is for the future of a country not a gold medal.
Daniel....Off topic. I have seen a very considerable rise in the black market dollar and friends tell me that it is very hard to get dollars right now. Could it be because those close to the government are cashing out?
ReplyDeleteI would think that it's because there is nothing left, other than oil, that is generating $$ and those are going to pay for the relection of Chavez.
DeleteIn the tourism industry, which I'm in, the number of foreign tourists has dropped 90%. There are very few dollars in the market. Current rates are 12+ to US$1.
I don't dare to make myself confident...
ReplyDeleteOnt he other hand. Wouldn't this type of poll just drive more chavistas to the polls on voting day?
Chavistas, if they read polls, read GIS XXI
DeleteAs I posted on the other two blogs that I follow, please check out the following: (Hay un camino!!!!)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.noticierodigital.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=13679223#13679223
Different sort of poll: http://www.chavezocapriles.com/
ReplyDeleteGiven Capriles' dominance on Facebook and Twitter, I think this is a reasonable analysis. It will probably be closer than is predicted on that website, but in the end Capriles dominates Twitter and Facebook (particularly when you use Twitter Audit and see that most of Chavez' followers are fake / non-participants).
DeleteCheck out Twitter trends for Capriles hashtags. He's completely obliterating Chavez, and Chaves has a lot of foreign (ie, western "leftist") followers (in the same vein as the undoubtedly senile Castro).
Daniel I really hope he wins.....I am waiting for this to happen for yearssss. I am so proud of this "flaquito" Capriles with ancestors from the Netherlands and Curacao....;) I am a yu Korsou....;)
ReplyDeletemargareth,
DeleteMi casa ta ju di Corsow.Mi ta stima Corsow un isla masha bunita mes
Bonbini
-firepigette
masha danki firepigette. Maybe we are family, you'll never know. ;)
DeleteHello
ReplyDeleteIm from Almanya desde Hamburgo.
I Hope Chavez is going in the Hell.
Chavez-Clan has Millions of Millions Dollars in the Family Clans.
Sorry for my english.
Ich Hoffe das der chavez -Clan endlich das bekommt was er auch verdient.
erstens : Abgewählt!
zweitens: Vor Gericht Gestellt und Verurteilt werden für das was er dem Venezuelanischen Menschen ANGETAN HAT.
drittens: Die befehlshaber der Venezulanischen armee vor ein Kriegsgericht stellen und aburteilen.
Hope for Capriles