And the next stop is....

OK, a lot has been going on. I cannot catch up with everything. So here follows a summary of sorts mixed with my conclusions. Sort it out if you can, I can't.

The recent crude facts


FACT 1

April 19 was the nail in the coffin for street protest from chavismo. The opposition drew a GIGANTIC crowd from Eastern Caracas. Basically any one that could make it did so. And there were marches starting from Western Caracas which not as large were the largest one ever coming from that area. Some experts put at 3 million those who set foot on the street if anything to wave a flag as marchers went by. I will settle for two million which is A-W-E-S-O-M-E by itself.

But that is not all, there were huge marches in many places of Venezuela, something unheard of in some of these places. See, the provinces suffer more than Caracas and even the provincial apathy is shaken. In Valencia it was huge. Even in San Felipe my people reported to me in awe.

Whatever millions the opposition truly put in the streets is irrelevant, now, because what the regime dragged to the streets the same day, in comparison, was irrelevant. They could not, buses and blackmail included, fill up the Bolivar avenue of Caracas that we all know cannot host much more than a 100 thousand. And the opposition just on the highway, the portion that got gassed in the upper deck, had more people than in Bolivar avenue. And inside the country? Nothing, just some lacking gatherings here and there.

In front of the whole world it is now clear that the regime has lost any popular fervor that it may have had. Blackmail of public workers and all, the world also knows about that. The opposition without means can bring down to the streets whatever it wants, even two days in a row as it happened on April 20.

FACT 2

One would think that holding the street fervor in such a lopsided way would be enough to overthrow an hyper corrupted regime. But it is not so. The reason is the outrageous repression that the regime is willing to do.

The repression of the last two weeks was bad enough as it was. But what happened on April 19 should get to whomever gave the order a one way ticket to The Hague international court. The indictment could be on Crime Against Humanity or even simply War Crimes. The merits are there for any type of indictment the court may wish to use.  Proving that the order may have come from Cuba will not be easy, perhaps, but proving that the Venezuelan Generals in charge gave the order, or did not try to stop it, is, well, vox populi. As of April 19, General Padrino, minister of defense, is passible of indictment at the Hague because either he did, or he did not stop. And he certainly has not resigned in protest.  Whatever it is, it will a tough act for him to clear his name now. The others do not even bother with cleaning their names anymore.

At any rate, the fact here is that the regime has decided to kill as many people as there will be a need to kill. Period.

FACT 3

The popular discontent can only but grow. The tweet below gives a fascinating video, if your Spanish holds, about how the message of chavismno is not going down anymore. The background are popular districts. The "pueblo" is brown skinned. The only pale guy is the chavista official, ironed red shirt, impeccable shave and hair cut (and apparently some type of body guard).  And yet he is booed, he is told that the CLAP food program does not work, that people are tired of getting blackmailed and that the fault is with Maduro and no one else. The chavista poor soul tried desperately the old trite arguments, resorting to "we should not fight among ourselves" to no good avail. He is the enemy now, not the leader. And he does not seem to quite understand what is going on, truly in shock that there is no one taking his side and that everyone that has a cell phone is recording the scene.

1) In this remarkable video a local chavista "leader" is booed because "there is no food on the hills" https://t.co/nfGfUCPuuf via @YouTube

— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) April 21, 2017

FACT 4

We are broke. The regime even acknowledges it when it prosecutes on false charges representative Jose Guerra. See, the guy is the chair of finance committee and he has been saying that there cannot be any loan to the regime if this one is not approved by the National Assembly. In other words, if you lend to Maduro is at your own risk and this Assembly is under no obligation to honor the contract in the future. That and also that Guerra beat the regime in 2015 in a very chavista district where now people speak like the video above. But I digress.

The point here is that the regime seems to think that getting rid of Guerra is enough to have loans flow in again. In their totalitarian mind set the regime probably think that he represents only himself....

The fact here is that the regime still has no understanding of how bad the crisis is and that until oil prices go up again it is enough to shoot messengers. And boy, are there a boatload of messengers to shoot....

FACT 5

Are we witnessing a "nazification" of the regime?

This week, just to name the more outrageous event, Diosdado Cabello has said that the political battle will be won in the streets and that the colectivos have received the address, telephone and associates of opposition leaders to go against them all just in case of...  Well, he did not say colectivos per se, just the party, but we all know who are the final executors of the regime, the paramilitary colectivos.

Last time I saw such a yellow starring with violent promises of stoning was in Germany mid 30ies..... Pol Pot was at least more direct.

So there, Diosdado Cabello recognizes that 1) he will not win in elections, 2) he will use violence to impose his power 3) it is all a for Diosdado or against Diosdado thing.

And thus this fact is that we are in the legitimate right to wonder who is ruling inside chavismo.

More FACTS? Too tired, a CONCLUSION

I need to go to bed.

The whole point about Diosdado is not him being a fascist, commie or nazi. In the end he is a totalitarian, always was. As uncouth as they come. As piggy looking as Orwell could have dreamed of.

No, the point is what truly goes inside chavismo and how far will one group let the other group go.  A picture for you, taken from a tweet from Maduro press office on April 18.

On the left military in charge of operations the 19th, and as such seeking their one way ticket to The Hague.
On the right, Chavez brother, Elias Jaua, Cilia Flores, the Vice, Maduro, Diosdado, PSUV whip at the
National Assembly, foreign minister, Caracas mayor.

The extraordinary thing here is that in a very official act where the army reports and receives orders prior April 19 mega opposition march Diosdado Cabello is sitting on the left of Maduro...  Diosdado has NOTHING to do here, he is a mere representative, he is not even a whip at the National Assembly.  Maybe a case could be made for him to attend at the invitation of Maduro as a witness or advisory, but he should have never sat on his left (nor Cilia Flores two spots on his right who has no right in such an official occasion; but at least she used to bang Maduro). Even his role as leader of PSUV does not give him the right to seat next to Maduro. In this circumstance the one that should have sat on the left was the security minister, strangely absent...  Diosdado and Cilia, if needed, should have sat at the end, AFTER Caracas mayor, after Chavez brother who at least is a minister, an irrelevant one for the moment but a mister nevertheless.

This picture basically illustrates what was the power structure within chavismo, and apparently united army against a civilian power without clear head.

Is that picture still valid today?