Saturday, January 12, 2019

And so we reached January 13, to everybody's great surprise

What has been remarkable in the last three days is what DID NOT happen. What happened was not necessarily meaningful, nor did it solve any problem but it contributed to set the base line for the next weeks, until January 23 unless the regime cracks down before. (1)

What happened was that Maduro did swear in at the high court (TSJ). As if his word had more value than Venezuelan currency.

And in the next two days the opposition at the National Assembly started the process to declare itself as the new government since Maduro election is not recognized and he did not swear in as the constitution demands. So he does not exist and any paper with his signature as of January 10 is worthless.


What did not happen is that Maduro did not close down the NA and did not send capture orders for its members.

The opposition stopped short from declaring themselves the new government even if already some presidents are recognizing the new president of the NA, Juan Guaido, as the interim president of Venezuela.

I cannot give you a detailed analysis. First, my mind is somewhere else. Second there is no free media left. Third there is no free newspaper left.  I cannot check on all the info on tweeter, sorry.  Besides I am not sure a serious analysis of the situation can be done in such a moving sand storm.

So I will settle for an opinion without justifying it much. Sorry.

The regime has not closed the NA because it simply does not feel strong enough right now to do it.  The swearing in attendance was a fiasco. The ones who attended are worthless countries because they are unable to help Venezuela financially. Russia and China, the only bailors left, are lending drop wise what ever little bit they are willing/able to loan to that bad money pit.  Things must be so bad that suddenly Maduro today asked for the UN to come and start dialogue in Venezuela.  A useless time saving attempt until he finds a response because even if the UN would be willing to do so it would take weeks to set up something credible. To make things worse, there are countries starting to recognize Guaido, along the OAS, which would directly translate the closing of the NA  into an internationally sanctionable coup

In short, Maduro had to close the NA, a the latest, the 11th in the wee hours. He did not. The illegal constitutional assembly did not do it.  The TSJ remains mute. They do not know what to do yet. Well, they have many tricks but they cannot decide on any one.

The NA has not sworn in its president, Guaido, as the Constitution dictates, using some lame excuses but somehow valid.  This is not a moment to apply laws to the detail, this is time for high level political deals and any stringent action could lock what is perhaps the very last chance to get rid of Maduro with minor bloodshed.  That does not mean that the value of Guaido has not been able to rise spectacularly, from a not well known assembly man to now the great brown hope. Guaido is all but officially sworn in. He has kept his appelas to the military to defend the Constitution, receiving so far only vacuous predictable words from its commander Padrino. He is receiving foreign endorsements, even personal phone calls from presidents.

And today's best, he met with Maria Corina Machado who offered her support. Now all the opposition that matters is behind Guaido. The division trump card of the regime is voided, at least for the time being.  If there is an election tomorrow under any conditions, almost, Machado would call his radicalized abstention voters to go and vote.

In short the opposition is giving a few hours to the regime to unlock the situation. The very least that should happen is the naming by Maduro of a transition government where opposition figures would enter, the end of the ban on the NA, and new elections in all fairness within 6 months.

If the regime refuses then it will have no other option but to put behind bars the NA members. And with so much at stake, well, maybe the army will refuse and strike a direct deal with the opposition.

Continuing.

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1) in this fateful day, January 23, the last dictatorship was overthrown in 1958.  Chavismo has tried to make that date theirs but with little success since they are closer to the dictator Perez Jimenez than to democracy.  A giant march is convoked for that day in Caracas and it is already requested that all cities in Venezuela organize their own marches.  It is this close of a call to insurrection.





13 comments:

  1. Charly12:50 PM

    "...maybe the army will refuse..." ???

    Depends on the state of the coffers. The cogs of the most corrupt machine of the country need grease.

    ReplyDelete
  2. "maybe the army will refuse and strike a direct deal with the opposition.'

    Certainly not the the top Generals, they are all bribed and living the good life. Lower ranked ones are spied by around 20000 Cuban spies , and cat be ratted out. But yeah, the only way out is by military force, which can only come from within, since the USA and all the word have zero intentions to intervene militarily. And that's the only way to remove thugs like Cabello or Maduro from power, make no mistake. (Where are they gonna go and hide from the law, Syria or China?)

    If they are not too stupid, they've already bought houses in Cuba, just in case. But I doubt the military will be effective in toppling the criminal regime, because they are complicit criminals themselves, thieves and thugs, for the vast majority.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Are you going to demonstrate on January 23rd?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous1:00 PM

      Daniel, is there anything people outside can do to help?

      Longing for your nightmare to end.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous6:33 PM

      Yes, Anonymous from 1:00PM. There is a lot you can do outside.

      1. Town Halls (cabildos) are being organized in many cities around the world. Go, spread the word. Get folks off their asses and get them to go.

      2. Depending on where you live, write letters to your Congress/Parliament/Foreign Ministry. Better yet, get all the ones you are telling about the town halls to write too.

      3. If there is a consulate of Cuba, or Venezuela, or China or Russia near you, go protest there.

      4. Write letters to the editor of the newspapers you read.

      I know it isn't sexy, but that stuff works. Whatever activity you do, take pics and post on social media. Spread the word.

      Delete
    3. Jym Ellins1:12 PM

      Depending where you are, help by lobbying to have all Venezuelan Diplomats declared 'Persona-non-grata'

      Delete
  4. Do the marches accomplish anything? Unless they are telling the people to bring whatever weapon they can that is a match to actually take over the gov't is it not just a chance to let the steam out of the populous? So many marches have happened and no results. Make it the match of death to the palace weapons or not. Military can choose to slaughter the people or give in to their will.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stupid phone made all the march words to match.

      Delete
    2. Anita9:50 PM

      Stupid Phone!!! look in the mirror.

      You are sooo smart, sometimes I wonder how come you are not "the" President of the World.

      Delete
    3. Here is a serious answer to your question. The marches make a person realize they are not alone and isolated in their opposition to the regime. They help people see and understand the extent and power of their numbers. And, finally, they serve to aid people into the group mentality which makes them capable of heroics that are beyond the reach of individuals alone.

      Delete
    4. Thx Roy, good answer. Hope they can overwhelm the regime.

      Delete
  5. Wow, Anita thanks for the education lesson. Must have taken you hours to think that up. Give your phone back to your parents now and be proud of how they raised you.

    ReplyDelete

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