What happened was that Maduro did swear in at the high court (TSJ). As if his word had more value than Venezuelan currency.
And in the next two days the opposition at the National Assembly started the process to declare itself as the new government since Maduro election is not recognized and he did not swear in as the constitution demands. So he does not exist and any paper with his signature as of January 10 is worthless.
What did not happen is that Maduro did not close down the NA and did not send capture orders for its members.
The opposition stopped short from declaring themselves the new government even if already some presidents are recognizing the new president of the NA, Juan Guaido, as the interim president of Venezuela.
I cannot give you a detailed analysis. First, my mind is somewhere else. Second there is no free media left. Third there is no free newspaper left. I cannot check on all the info on tweeter, sorry. Besides I am not sure a serious analysis of the situation can be done in such a moving sand storm.
So I will settle for an opinion without justifying it much. Sorry.
The regime has not closed the NA because it simply does not feel strong enough right now to do it. The swearing in attendance was a fiasco. The ones who attended are worthless countries because they are unable to help Venezuela financially. Russia and China, the only bailors left, are lending drop wise what ever little bit they are willing/able to loan to that bad money pit. Things must be so bad that suddenly Maduro today asked for the UN to come and start dialogue in Venezuela. A useless time saving attempt until he finds a response because even if the UN would be willing to do so it would take weeks to set up something credible. To make things worse, there are countries starting to recognize Guaido, along the OAS, which would directly translate the closing of the NA into an internationally sanctionable coup
In short, Maduro had to close the NA, a the latest, the 11th in the wee hours. He did not. The illegal constitutional assembly did not do it. The TSJ remains mute. They do not know what to do yet. Well, they have many tricks but they cannot decide on any one.
The NA has not sworn in its president, Guaido, as the Constitution dictates, using some lame excuses but somehow valid. This is not a moment to apply laws to the detail, this is time for high level political deals and any stringent action could lock what is perhaps the very last chance to get rid of Maduro with minor bloodshed. That does not mean that the value of Guaido has not been able to rise spectacularly, from a not well known assembly man to now the great brown hope. Guaido is all but officially sworn in. He has kept his appelas to the military to defend the Constitution, receiving so far only vacuous predictable words from its commander Padrino. He is receiving foreign endorsements, even personal phone calls from presidents.
And today's best, he met with Maria Corina Machado who offered her support. Now all the opposition that matters is behind Guaido. The division trump card of the regime is voided, at least for the time being. If there is an election tomorrow under any conditions, almost, Machado would call his radicalized abstention voters to go and vote.
In short the opposition is giving a few hours to the regime to unlock the situation. The very least that should happen is the naming by Maduro of a transition government where opposition figures would enter, the end of the ban on the NA, and new elections in all fairness within 6 months.Tenemos el compromiso de hacer lo que sea necesario para alcanzar la Libertad de Venezuela.— María Corina Machado (@MariaCorinaYA) 12 de enero de 2019
Cuenta conmigo para avanzar con fuerza en esta ruta, @jguaido.
A los ciudadanos, civiles y militares, y al mundo democrático, aprovechemos esta gran oportunidad. pic.twitter.com/W139LmRk3V
If the regime refuses then it will have no other option but to put behind bars the NA members. And with so much at stake, well, maybe the army will refuse and strike a direct deal with the opposition.
1) in this fateful day, January 23, the last dictatorship was overthrown in 1958. Chavismo has tried to make that date theirs but with little success since they are closer to the dictator Perez Jimenez than to democracy. A giant march is convoked for that day in Caracas and it is already requested that all cities in Venezuela organize their own marches. It is this close of a call to insurrection.