And so we reached January 13, to everybody's great surprise

What has been remarkable in the last three days is what DID NOT happen. What happened was not necessarily meaningful, nor did it solve any problem but it contributed to set the base line for the next weeks, until January 23 unless the regime cracks down before. (1)

What happened was that Maduro did swear in at the high court (TSJ). As if his word had more value than Venezuelan currency.

And in the next two days the opposition at the National Assembly started the process to declare itself as the new government since Maduro election is not recognized and he did not swear in as the constitution demands. So he does not exist and any paper with his signature as of January 10 is worthless.

Becoming a failed state (1): the parameters

There is actually the concern that Venezuela may become a failed state, if it has not become one already. After all, there is no way to get real numbers and thus for all that we know we may be already bankrupt with no way out as long until there is a sudden rise in oil price. Like to 90USD per barrel.

Being failed

So, are we becoming a failed state? Is there a way to avoid it? Do we have the people for that? Before going into the last point, a highly un-PC examination of the populace, let’s set the parameters that would qualify us as a failed state to be.

Let’s start with Wikipedia, as reliable a source as any other on this one since it is a relatively subjective notion.

And the year starts with a bang

Today the National Assembly sessions for 2017 started, without the regime dissolving it. Actually chavismo representatives attended though they denounced that the Assembly was illegal, and that they would not even bother naming their whip. The chair for this year sessions is Julio Borges, replacing Ramos Allup. In his inaugural speech he took no gloves. He said that the objective of the Assembly was to find a way to get rid of the terrible government of Nicolas Maduro. And he demanded that the army faced up to its responsibilities: either support Maduro and its narco state, going down with him in infamy, or force him to accept elections and restore constitutional rule. Borges could have not been any clearer, and challenged the regime just as this one named the most leftist, castroite, communist narko cabinet since 1998.

So let's see what this all means.

So? Can we all agree on the D word?

This is kind of a melancholy post. For years now I have been calling this a dictatorship. It took sometime to start seeing it expressed in the foreign press. And even as I type there are some in Venezuela or overseas (I am looking at you, Zapatero just for today's denialist) that still refuse to use the D word, expecting who knows what leniency from who knows where.

The developping coup

You need to keep following closely what is going on in Venezuela. Any distraction, the more so if you are overseas like yours truly these days, and you may miss the gran finale.

The regime has decided to formally annul the National Assembly of Venezuela

Taking advantage of the half week (after Carnival holidays), that tomorrow there is no session in the Assembly, the high court , TSJ, decided that the vote to reject the Emergency decree of last January was not valid and thus the decree has been valid since January 14.

Voilá!

You are going to need a lot of pennies for my thoughts.  Let's get going.

The first day of the New Assembly

This entry started this morning (see bottom for earlier text) but I decided to edit it and keep it up as a regular entry.

I am sorry to limit my comments on what happened inside the Assembly because I went to the support rally. In spite of the low speed of connections I did manage to have a full report, video included, of what that rally was. Considering that it was early January when everyone is on Holiday, considering that the regime close 4, FOUR, subway stations to force people to walk about 2 KM to attend, considering the threats, I think it was a very successful demonstration. Visit my Instagram account for pics and videos, in particular the police barrier at the end of the march, two blocks before the National Assembly. For those new to Instagram you need to click on the picture for full details and comments.  Better get used to it and open your account, it is the future of micro blogging by eye witness.