Fin de Regne Havana; and Caracas?

It has been in every headline so I need not bother putting up a link. Fidel Castro has announced that he will not seek to renew his job in Havana. That is, he is stepping down from his unelected position of dictator for life. A rather nonplussing event. After all, as long as the living mummy can still talk he will have influence in Cuba and still can create trouble to whomever replaces him. But that will not be for too long as his days are definitely numbered (or why else would he step down?). Nothing much will change in Cuba in the very near future. The "new" folks will politely wait for Fidel to pass away once and for all and then they will have to move toward a democratic transition. The longest dictatorship in the Americas will thus come to an end. And Fidel will have managed one last feat: to have had two long Fin de Règne, his almost two years of sick leave and the months ahead until he finally dies.

The French did coin that expression, Fin de Règne, which full flavor cannot be satisfactorily translated. It means, literally, end of a reign; but it means much more. I suppose that the French used to long twilight historical periods, when exhausted kings hung unto power for a too many years, coined that expression to describe periods where an aging king was expecting his death (Louis XIV and XV in particular). During a Fin de Règne we all know that an era is going but we have no good idea of what the new era has in store for us.

Democracy did away with this feeling since elections and term limits allow us to have clear expiration dates and offer us the means to prepare the succession actively. Thus, for example, George Bush present irrelevance is not a Fin de Règne: he will be gone in January as the US folks are busy selecting his substitute. The US political culture coined Lame Duck for this feeling of presidential term exhaustion. But Tony Blair last two years had a clear Fin de Règne feel as people were more interested in his departure date than anything else.

Hence the last exploit of Castro, to have ended his very own Fin de Règne since he became sick, and to have started yesterday the Fin de Règne of his own regime which will last for who knows how long. Raul Castro is already old enough and we can expect his tenure to last much less than a decade. How much less is yet to be known but Castro has bestowed on his brother a Fin de Règne feel that will besot him all during his tenure. In modern political jargon Raul Castro tenure is a "transition" period, but the feel will be of an old order slowly dying.

We are also seeing this in Caracas. After 9 years of nearly unhinged rule Chavez is running out of ideas, out of people, out of worthy goals. Since December 2 we have entered our very own Fin de Règne. True, Chavez has still 5 years in his presidential term but these look quite empty now. A defeat in the regional elections of November and continuing food shortages could shorten his tenure (last week we saw in his home town of Sabaneta a grocery store looting). This in turn would spell a certain defeat in legislative elections two years later, if not an earlier set back through a direct recall election on the inane current National Assembly. That would be the nice exit out for Chavez, to be stripped of most of his power and be forced to resign and retire. Perhaps he could so in Raul Castro's Cuba to be away from judicial charges that will rain on him once his regime is over.

Or perhaps Chavez will take the violent road, openly cheating on election and transforming Venezuela into a new Zimbabwe. This would also be a Fin de Règne, but longer, sadder, crueler.



Whatever the future holds for us in Venezuela now we all know that times are changing. We already got our first shiver of an end to an era in May 2007 when Chavez closed RCTV. Now, that this abuse became the catalyzer of his defeat in December, we are in a true Fin de Règne. On TV we are starting to see humble people making Chavez directly responsible for their woes, not his appointees. The Teflon has worn out. The fear seems suddenly gone. Maybe the Misiones have stopped paying enough? The response of the government is the now stale, a tired endless repeat of empty slogans by the same recycled Chavez sycophants. Meanwhile the country is now showing all the signs of disaggregation, from the infamous potholed main roads to the increasingly empty shelves without forgetting the growing anarchy and the fear from crime. The opposition does not fare much better and is far from offering a well organized alternative. As a society we feel like standing a the foot of this bridge, knowing that the crossing is long and that yet we have to cross it without knowing what is awaiting for us on the other side.

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Why there are food shortages in Venezuela

This blog has reported often on the erratic supplies that one can find at any Venezuelan grocery store for now two years. The reasons are of course bad agricultural policies that result in a dearth of investments in the country side. The situation IS NOT created by an increase of purchasing power of the population through the Misiones handouts. These exacerbate the problem, they do not create it, I repeat.

Today there are a few recent articles worth noting in El Universal. The first one tells us that the very own government numbers speak of a 0.2% growth in the agricultural PIB for 2005-2006. This at a time where the economy was growing by a 10%, courtesy of the import boom due to high oil prices. That is, as it has been pointed out often enough in this page, the economy grew because imports grew and had to be distributed around the country, NOT because production grew. Currently most industries are working at full capacity but very few new industries are being built. While the population keeps growing.... That article also cites the following number: in 2003 Venezuela imported 1.5 billion USD in food; the number for 2007 is 5.5 billion... That is, all the increase in food consumption has been done on food import, not food production. We are eating the oil we produce and export instead of investing it for our future. You do not need to be a rocket scientist to imagine the long term consequences of these numbers.

Amazingly, in 2005-2006, the loans for agricultural production from banks have increased and yet production has gone down! In 2006 Bs 2.54 billions were loaned by the banks (by law Venezuelan banks are obliged to loan a certain percentage of their loans to agricultural activities). The 2005 number was Bs. 1,53 billions. Yet that 66% increase in financing translated into a 6.1% reduction in agricultural production volume.

Why is the production failing to grow? Some of the causes are seen in the other recent articles.

Producers are harassed and threatened all the time. Why should they invest and risk their own money when the state after any stupid utterance from Chavez could seize your business? This week, Polar the main giant feeding Venezuela was once again threatened as it was accused of hoarding. Polar quickly pointed out that it is not in the business of producing sugar, nor milk, meat or poultry, not even coffee or eggs which are all the most notorious missing products whereas the supply of Polar made products is more regular. But see, chavismo needs a scapegoat for its incompetence and even if Polar does not produce a single gallon of milk, let's accuse them anyway. I let you imagine the morale of the Polar personnel after such attacks, and the plans of expansion that will be duly shelved.

That governmental inefficiency is, by the way, aggravated by corruption. Mercal, the government distributing system reports 397 cases of corruption under study. Obviously when you must import so much food in such a hurry, you create a prime field for corruption to bloom. Besides, when it is so easy to import why should Mercal directors visit hot sunny production facilities to promote local goods production where they will sweat profusely when they can order a container of beans from the comfort of their AC office?

I could find many more articles and many more ways to explain the government failure in promoting production, but El Universal this Sunday nailed the coffin reporting on El Charcote abandon. Long time readers of this blog might remember a long study I made in 2005 where I discussed the policies of land seizure in Venezuela, including the famous productive cattle ranch of El Charcote (many other articles on this subject appear if you use Charcote as a search word for this blog). I could say again that I was sort of prophetic as all the land seizures of 2004 and 2005 only resulted in a drop of agricultural production. El Charcote stands now mostly idle, the farmers brought to cultivate the seized land having left or limited themselves to put up a shack where to live and hold their assigned land in case they can sell it someday.

I can assure you of one thing because it is my line of work: some agricultural sectors have prospered under chavismo, and they are all the ones linked to some agribusiness ventures in the hands of private investors. Such is Polar working full time or other sectors such as the poultry industry, in spite of price controls or such as corn growing associated with these agribusiness and that the government has not dared to touch yet. The global meager result is due to those policies of land seizure who have destroyed cattle ranching, meat and milk production, and sugar cane fields (among others). But do not hold your breath expecting Chavez to recognize his grievous mistakes, a true betrayal to the country of even worse consequences than the one he is perpetrating with PDVSA: soon we will not have enough oil to but all the food that we will need to import.


-The end-

The unanimity against Tascon: Stalinism in Venezuela

Tachira representative Luis Tascon has been expelled from the PSUV (1). The vote was unanimous, according to Jorge Rodriguez, ex-director of the CNE, who knows very well how elections are rigged to get the vote result you need. What is important here is not that Tascon was booted out, but the adjective attached to the action: unanimous.

I will start my comment on this with my own feelings. I do not care. See, Tascon is such an abject character that any serious court of law would have condemned him long ago to at least life term in jail. If you forgot the personage, he is the one who in 2003-2004 invented his famous list of people who signed that Recall Election petition, transforming more than 3 million people in second class citizens. The signatories of the "Lista Tascon" are denied any help from or any work with the government, and for a time even passports and official documents. They will retain that status as long as Chavez rules, and the list will be a convenient directory when future Gulags need guests. All details are amply documented on the right side of this page where you will find all the links needed to understand the evil associated with that scoundrel. Tascon has been spreading such evil for such a long time that I am now unable to experience any joy at his misfortune (?), just relief that one less flea will be sucking my blood.

Why is Tascon booted from the PSUV? He had the lack of sense of accusing the brother of the currently main Chavez supporter Diosdado Cabello of some suspicious expenses during his tenure at the equipment ministry. I do not care, they are all (very likely) stealing all what they can from public coffers, probably thinking that it is a small price to pay to have to sit through the never ending Chavez homilies and insults thrown at them. If Jose David Cabello is innocent of any wrongdoing in the case presented by Tascon, I will put my hand on fire that he has stolen money elsewhere.

Not even the accusation by Cabello that Microsoft put a chip in Tascon blood stream to make him a US agent deserved a mention in this blog. After all, since Carreño said that Direct TV was spying on us through an invisible camera placed in the decoder, nothing else will impress me: these people live constantly in the middle of conspiracy theories and their mutterings on these only reflect their paranoia, and their guilt about the mess they are presiding over.

But today news deserve mention in this blog and everywhere. First, the interesting detail. Why is Diosdado Cabello defending his brother and why are we not seeing this one defending himself? After all, he is a minister and we would hope him to sue Tascon for calumny. But he is not doing so, he is silent and his brother is the one coming forward. Interesting, no?

But more meaningful is that "unanimous" vote. I bet you it was also taken with raised hands as all tried to reach as high as possible, least they would be suspected of any collusion with Tascon daring to inquire on where the money goes (even though he seems to have become quite prosperous himself under the revolution).

With that vote we know that the not quite born PSUV is already another old Stalinist party.

1) The PSUV is the Unique Socialist Party that Chavez has been trying to establish since December 2006. The attempt at forcibly have all of his supporters join has had very counter productive effects such as the break with PODEMOS.

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Chavez criticized by the world intellectuals and artists, the great ones at that

Poor Chavez, since his august 15 2007 announcement for a referendum cum power grab, things have been going downhill for him. First, the campaign sucked. Second, milk, sugar, flour, beans, etc... started missing on the shelves. Then he lost the vote on December 2 and ended up making a ridiculous spectacle of his bitter self. Moving on late December he botched a hostage "rescue" show. When he got them finally in early January he had no better idea than to endorse the FARC and blow away any points he might have won though the hostage release. Since then he kept running into more trouble such as the Exxon scandal where the ineptitude of the "people"'s PDVSA is now the laughing stock of the world.

But things can always get worse. Now an old censorship issue came back to visit him: the Spanish singer Alejandro Sanz (one of my favorites by the way).

Mr. Sanz had the bad fortune to criticize Chavez polices when he was visiting Venezuela last, around the heydays of the Recall Election. Since then chavismo has been trying to discredit him but it seems that Sanz is winning the party after all. After having refused to rent him the Poliedro for a Caracas concert, the government sort of allowed him to reschedule his concert. But lo' and behold, Sanz canceled it because the logistics were too complicated and no hotel wanted to receive his party. Hotel owners were quick to refute this, as expected, since they know full well that were they to confirm that they discriminated against Sanz for fear of the government, they would have got a visit of the SENIAT within days. Here we know better and if we have a hard time to forgive hotel management at least we do understand that this is the way to survive in a lawless country, and they owe it to their staff stability. Some of us also remember the recent example of the Primero Justicia convention which was postponed because nobody wanted to rent them space until finally the EuroBuilding did.

So Sanz canceled but any mean victory that chavismo would have been celebrating, many are despicable enough to celebrate such things, was quickly undone by a communique where the creme de la creme of the world entertainment and recognized musicians took the side of Sanz. These include more than a hundred folks (so far?):

Top artists such as Shakira, Juan Luis Guerra, Joan Manuel Serrat, and Mark Anthony, along more fluffy but equally well known artist/celebrities such as JeLo and Ricky Martin.

David Beckham: from the sport world but entertainment side, and surprisingly politically aware, a nice change from the Hollywood tasteless crowd that has been hanging around Chavez lately

The list also include many Venezuelan singers of course, the most known ones here but also many musical groups from all around Latin America.

A few days ago I was thinking about the chavista carnival and the poverty of thought and creativity it meant. Well, when you see the roster of the people supporting Sanz agaisnt Chavez you get the best possible confirmation of how low and how discredited Chavez has gone outside of Venezuela, at least among people who have a few functioning neurones.

But that was not all for Chaevz. One of the greatest writers alive in Latin America, Carlos Fuentes, went out again agaisnt Chavez. And the worse part for Chavez is that in the very same interview he praised Castro while trashing Chavez, with some the marvelous expressions, here below:

Mexican writer Carlos Fuentes qualified this past Wednesday president Hugo Chavez of "demagogo lloricón" (crybaby demagogue) without any redeeming traits and he added that he completely dislikes him.

"He almostlost power. He protected himself with the church. He cried. He is a man without substance, a cheap tropical Mussolini. He has matters little."..."Mussolini with bananas. Banana Mussolini (...) He seems to me a demagogue crybaby".

According to Fuentes, the political system of Venezuela is not socialism but fascism.

[he] compared Chavez with Fidel Castro, who he described as "respectable man". "One is genuine the other is a fraud". "One might not agree with Fidel, but he must be respected... The other one is an amateur... that will not last much".

"[It is Chavez] function, his dictatorial pretense, that mania of Latin America dictators, of the authoritarian type, to hide his at home failures creating foreign problems".

"Chavez lives of that, personality cult".

"I think that the great failure of the Bush presidency is that he thought he entered a world he would dominate... and we saw that it was not so" " His project crashed down because today's world does not admit a single power".

Accusing Fuentes of right wing conspiracy, of serving the Empire, well, it will not fly.

For the thinking world, Chavez is a clown, a sad clown at that.


-The end-

Chavez's bark: calling his bluff

Oh dear, according to the Washington Post today, Exxon was right in calling Chavez's bluff. Here, just two excerpts from the last paragraph of the article to save you time (my emphasis):

But someone apparently explained to Mr. Chavez that Venezuela's oil industry, already in decline because of Mr. Chavez's mismanagement, might collapse if he actually carried out his threat. And without oil money, Mr. Chavez, who lost a referendum on extending his rule two months ago, cannot finance the subsidies and social spending that buy what's left of his popular support in Venezuela. [snip]In standing up to Mr. Chavez through peaceful, legal means, [Exxon Mobil]has once again exposed the hollowness of the anti-imperialism with which he justifies his rule.

Pegs the guy quite well, no? Good thing that ridicule is not necessarily lethal.

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The FARC business inside Venezuela increasingly revealed

Chavez must start regretting a little bit his praise words toward the FARC. This is only resulting in an increased scrutiny of the FARC activities inside Venezuela by the press. And the Chavez administration is not looking good at all. In fact, in his latest article Juan Forero barely stops himself from accusing chavismo to be collaborating deliberately with the FARC business inside Venezuela. It must have been difficult for him to stop as we even have a "smoking gun" of sorts through the confessions of FARC deserters. This is in fact the most complete and researched article that I have seen so far from the foreign press about the specific activities of the FARC, even more remarkable that Juan Forero used to be a chavez supporter and that by writing such an article he endangers his position inside Colombia where he is based. Either that or inside Colombia the FARC is in such trouble that people are starting again to write and report about the FARC terror.

So, which are these activities inside Venezuela? Kidnapping for money (Forero does not mention drug trafficking, but that is OK, his article is damning enough as it is).

Which are the modalities? Direct kidnapping or kidnapping threats by FARC or ELN groups, and also the local mob kidnapping people that are thought to be at least worth half a million bucks to "resell" them to the FARC.

Which are the practical aspects? Kidnapping of course, with people held often for years. Even when they die in captivity, kidnappers still try to collect a ransom pretending they are alive. But there is also a very extended system of "vacuna" vaccine, where you are obliged to pay a certain sum every year if you do not want you or your relatives to be kidnapped at some point.

What does the chavista government do to prevent? Nothing. In fact it is busy diminishing the statistics, minimizing the numbers, trying to make links with the mob only, going as far as to pretend that the FARC has nothing to do when it is public and notorious that the FARC has been at it for years. And if it is not the FARC that is directly involved, the leaders seem all to be graduates from the FARC or ELN universities.

Does the government of Chavez participates? All seems to indicate that yes, it does so and actively. We have the kind words of Interior Minister Rodriguez Chacin to the FARC guerrilla that released Hernandez and Rojas early January. But we also have many testimonies form ex FARC. The Venezuelan Nazional Guard and other "security" offices such as the DISIP are deeply infiltrated and some of its components collaborate extensively with the kidnappers to facilitate information on the potential victims. This is even seen these days in non FARC related crimes such as the regular ransom activities observed in Caracas where quite often police from the Metropolitana are involved.

Which are the results? Staggering. Kidnapping went up from 44 the year Chavez reached power to 232 in 2006 and 382 last year, government numbers! Private numbers are much higher as many victims are very aware that the authorities are not only of no help but usually make things worse. In addition this has disrupted the agricultural production of one of the most productive areas of the country, Tachira and Sur del Lago since of course it is much easier to monitor the "wealth" of agricultural producers and to kidnap them while the travel through the country side to check on their fields. The food shortages that we are suffering are due in part to that situation.

Is there anything new in Forero's article? No, nothing. All has been said beofre, Forero just had to put it all together. But he has the merit of research, of talking to the victims and of exposing himself as a target for which he deserves praise. We must thank him for this because inside Venezuela it is becoming more difficult to speak abotu those things. Journalists now know that talking about such issues will result in an automatic tax income audit at the very least, to real threat of body harm, to even exile. Yesterday again, the legislative body chamber of the Carabobo state was wrecked by disgruntled supporters of the Governor Acosta Carles with journalists trying to film the event crudely aggressed. So you can imagine what happens when these journalists try to cover matters such as drugs or kidnapping....

Any political repercussions? Forero duly notes that the FARC link is not helping at all the popularity of Chavez. As the kidnapping industry expands, the bitterness of the victims and of the people who know about them increases. To which I can add that it is becoming clear to all that if the state security does not fight such abominable crime, it will fight even less petty crime that is the scourge of all of us. The recent pictures of the hordes of people trying to get food in Tachira are also contributing to slowly but surely illustrate to people how the government blind eye approach to the problem is affecting even their access to food. No wonder Chavez went straight to the confrontation with Exxon, even if through that unnecessary fight he wrecks the economy once and for all. After all, Chavez has made a career to hide a scandal with a new one, bigger if possible. But that is how thugs operate, no?

-The end-

I knew we were going to miss John Kerry.....

I knew that one day we would be missing John Kerry, unfortunate candidate for the White House 4 years ago. Babalu brings us how Obama supporters and even some Clinton ones, are not adverse sporting a Che image. Since I just put up one of these Che Guevara misplaced nostalgia, it is only fitting that I put up these misguided office decoration by some supporters of Obama. In particular this pic (courtesy of Fox via reader A. and Babalu) where the poster of Obama (circled in green) is dwarfed in front of the ridiculous Cubano Guevarista flag. Does the woman sitting at that desk really know the life and times of Che? Could she not even be bothered to find a bigger Obama poster, or more than one at least? Is she supporting Obama because he is the first Black Kennedy or because he will remove Bush from office? Has any one explained to her that no matter what Bush is gone next January whereas Cubans are still suffering from the cruel system that the Che helped put into place? Is there an end to human stupidity?

It is not idle to bring back the declarations of Kerry 4 years ago when the US policy was still bipartisan and serious (here and here), when both sides saw clearly the threat that Chavez was becoming. 4 more years of Iraq and a stubborn Bush administration now are allowing all sorts of uneducated freaks to cling to the coattails of a few to have a chance to preside over the future of the US, and I am not having in mind Democrats only, people like Huckabee qualify in my book of weirdos....

Really, the Democrats were not as stupid when I was a US Liberal 10 years ago..... then we worried about real issues such as abortion rights, ERA, gay rights, Act Up, affirmative action, fair taxes, MLK, Jesse Helms and such without having to invoke for help Fidel or Che.

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