Rex Tillerson all but declares war on Maduro narco dictatorship

This video is self explanatory.

EN VIDEO | Rex Tillerson: "El régimen corrupto y hostil de Maduro en Venezuela se aferra a un sueño falso y visión anticuados de la región que ya ha sido un fracaso para sus ciudadanos. No representa la visión de millones de venezolanos." pic.twitter.com/Fh3NpqiZ4n

— Alberto Rodríguez (@AlbertoRodNews) February 1, 2018

You have been put on notice.

Arming the unarmed, and unarmable

This weekend the dictatorship decided to perform "military exercises" to scare the US away from an intervention.  Not that it matters since the US will not waste a drop of Marine blood on a Venezuelan beach, but let's not go there now. The point here is that if Marines do not kill folks while landing at Patanemo, ridicule may finally be able to kill people.....

Certainly these week end activities are a circus show, this one segment even includes a midget at the end of the video.  Why, oh, why?

A thank you note to President Barak Obama and Senator Marco Rubio

I suppose that it will seem weird to read that I am thanking at the same time both sides of US political divide. Or that, for that matter, I am picking Senator Rubio over, say, Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. But please, bear with me, those will be, at the end, mere details.

What you have achieved in Venezuela, the Senator and his allies by forcing passage of a sanction law against Human Rights violators in Venezuela, and the President by finally applying it to 7 serious cases (and more to come?), is quite remarkable even if right now the casual observer may think it to be a diplomatic disaster for the US. Like many an historical good and well intentioned initiative from the US this one came out in a rather clunky presentation and on the surface seems to have united Latin America around its atavic anti US posture. Some even say that Maduro is reinforced, that the opposition received a patriotic blow that could endanger the electoral results of this year. All this is irrelevant.

Another day, another US sanction against Venezuelan apparatchicks

There was a small surprise of sorts today: an executive order from the White House removing visa to a few Venezuelan officials, with possible sanctions to follow of a strictly material nature. That is right, 7 Venezuelans folks who are accused justifiedly of human rights violations have had their travel visas to the US revoked. And they are under investigation for possible assets in the US that will be frozen. That is all, nothing much really, considering that today few chavistas should have significant assets in the US after the Carvajal affair.

Still, that was enough to make chavismo hyperventilate, reaching paroxysms such at Telesur which has totally forgotten what international media is supposed to be all about. I translate for you the tile of an article there: Threatening Venezuela, Obama declares war on the continent.

Just like that.

Open letter to Senator Mary Landrieu, of Louisiana

Dear Senator Landrieu

I am writing to you in respect of you accepting lobbying money to defend CITGO refineries in Louisiana. You have in an ill advised way blocked a US Senate bill that only aimed at putting some personal sanctions over some of the main culprits of human rights violations and drug traffic in Venezuela. Allow me to straighten you up.

Finally the US gets its act together on something: FTA for Colombia and Panama

Well, hopefully.

Obama finally sent to the Senate today three free trade agreements, two of them for Latin America: Colombia and Panama.  The first good thing he has done in a long time, and let's hope that it will become the first good thing Republicans will do in a long time by approving it.  Because if you ask me, the GOP House and White House Dem have been lately rather an embarrassment even though the GOP candidates believing in creationism and such shit scare me infinitely more than the wishy-washy White House.  Now we will see if serious people can break free of the blackmailing from AFL-CIO cum Tea Partiers and get down to real productive business.

Creeps on the way out: Assange and Ron

Today we have news about two creeps, people who have stirred the shit often for no other reason but to make it to the front page.  Their actions eventually never have the full impact they hoped for because, well, let's say it, they never thought much about it or their consequences.

Separated at birth?  Assange and Ron....

No more ambassadors for the US and Venezuela

Thus the other shoe dropeth.  After the vehement refusal of Chavez to receive the new ambassador, Larry Palmer, the US decided to reply in kind by revoking the diplomatic visa of Alvarez in Washington.

Mr. Palmer might not enjoy Venezuelan palm trees after all

Updated!  I was commenting on my last post that the replies of Ambassador designate to Venezuela, Larry Palmer, to Senator Lugar were rather interesting.  In them, among other pearls, he discussed the lack of morale of the Venezuelan army, the Cuban influence, the inability of Chavez to make real his threat of cutting oil supply to Venezuela and other such.  I read them as mild mannered since I am living at ground zero and thus all what Palmer said is true and in fact much worse than what his diplomatic language implied.  But of course the reality to which I should have been more sensible is that no ambassador can ever express itself on internal matters of the country he is sent to, the more so that he has not set foot in that country yet.

Concrete vision of the future versus the nutty living in a reactionary past

While I was on the road today on my way to Caracas news came together that made this evening a delightful moment of glee.

On one side the two powerhouses of Latin America decided to start speaking in earnest about free trade and oil cooperation. Mexico and Brazil are now, by far, the two biggest economies south of the Rio Grande. Even if the Mexican one has been battered lately from a larval civil war due to drug captaincies to a flu pandemic, not to mention its unhealthy dependence on exports to the US, it still is varied and large enough to start rebounding any time soon. President Calderon from the right wing PAN is touring Brazil of left wing PT's Lula. Well, I should rather write right of or left of center to describe them but let's hold unto the cliches of that past even though these two man are consummate pragmatists.

During that visit Calderon proposed what should have been proposed long ago, a free trade deal between Brazil and Mexico. Can you imagine what that would mean for Latin America if these two countries could manage such a feat? Their economies are really not complementary but Mexico is an entry to the US and Brazil is an expanding market with a rising technological value. Calderon is certainly aware of that as he is trying still to stir Mexico away of the last two decades of PRI doldrums and he even proposed a cooperation between Pemex and Petrobras.

Let me put it this way, if such a deal is worked out and if it succeeds more or less Latin America could finally once and for all take the path away from underdevelopment. Between them, all the other economies of the sub-continent would have to align their economic policies and the US would need, really need, its FTA to work out full speed with Colombia, Peru and Chile to counter somewhat the new economic colossus that could emerge. Because of course Mercosur would follow Brazil's lead and Mexico would be able to retake its natural area of influence, the Caribbean and Central America.

This is so big that one wonders how come it was not tried out earlier. I suspect that the US recession and a certain protectionist bent of the US since Obama's election must have played a role since Calderon was barely coming out of the North American summit.

I am not sure if Chavez realizes what happened today, what major geological shift suddenly started that could render Venezuela totally insignificant, but he certainly had his head elsewhere, probably up his, well, you know what...

First, the good man took his plane, a tax payer expense, to Cuba just to wish Fidel Castro a happy birthday. No word about the real presents carried to Havana, nor about how many people, all expenses paid, went along with Chavez. Maybe Chavez has accumulated enough frequent flier miles to fly for free to Cuba, including his court?

After this memory trip to a past that is reeking more and more of reactionary if anything because it has already been 50 years of standstill at Havana when the rest of the continent has moved on, Chavez came back to offer yet another old and probably dead idea: whip Obama. I suppose that he got that from Fidel who cannot live without an enemy in Washington. If Obama were a genuine friend of Cuba Fidel would still try to make him an enemy!

So today Chavez said that Obama was lost in space because he called him hypocrite for Chavez wanting him to intervene in Honduras. Note to president Obama: Dear Mr. President, Chavez is like a scorpion, it does not pay to be nice to him because he will always stab you in the back. Though the scorpion has an excuse because of the position of his tail, Chavez has none as he is merely a coward, unable to face the people he insults. In Spanish, on TV, with Chavez grimacing it is much stronger than the Reuters script I link above.

So to make sure what a reactionary throwback Chavez is at heart he went on again on the US having unseated Zelaya, putting the most formal accusation to date. Why so late Hugo? Your other arguments have failed so badly that now you have only leis left to your arsenal? Or is it that you simply cannot abandon the worn out line coming from Fidel? Is there no originality left in you now that your ship of state is having serious leaks? Why not you worry more about the PEMEX-Petrobras bond forming while you have been unable to do a PDVSA-Petrobras bond? I suppose it is because when Petrobras caught whiff of the corrupt set that manages PDVSA even the one at Pemex does not look that bad.

Anyway poor Obama gets hit from all sides, including a Wall Street Journal piece by Maria Anastasia O'Grady that includes the infamous picture of Chavez receiving Raul Castro with a military salute, quite a symbol of how passé, retrograde and reactionary the guerrilla left, the military and the the anti US cheapo rhetoric have become (1). The title, "anti American Amigos", says it all, how much at risk is the US policy in Latin America if some new thinking does not come fast at the White House (I am less concerned about State, I think the short is at the White House). You know guys, if you need help you could do worse than calling me, and I would not charge.

The future is more than ever with Lula and Calderon, not with Castro and Chavez and that accidental clown in the picture, the Kirchner fraud.

1) I cannot imagine ANY Venezuelan president in past history salute military the head of state of ANY country. Such image is enough, in my opinion to impeach Chavez. Not even because he is betraying Venezuela but for being so stupid, so lack of self worth. Bolivar must have rolled in his grave!

-The end-

And one from the right

Courtesy of reader Martin, this comprehensive study on what Chavez means for world security. True, for some of you that it comes from the Heritage Foundation might not be to your liking. But nevertheless it is a great assessment, cold eyed and objective, about what trouble Chavez could be for the US and what can this one do. Long but worth reading. You should in particular scrutinize this graph on how the US and Venezuelan aid compare, and understand that the US has more resources to counter Chavez than what one might think at first.

Ain't that nice when conservatives and liberals coincide on Chavez?

-The end-

The post November US

Two articles today allow us to think that the US will not be as tame in its relations with Chavez, no matter which is the new administration. We already know that Obama and McCain have been competing in being the harshest on Chavez and his pals, but what these two articles make us see is that the "anti-Chavez feel", to give it a name, is percolating beyond the presidential candidates circles, an essential condition for a bipartisan policy against Chavez to be implemented.

The first one is an editorial, no less, from the Washington Post. Here the novelty is a clear petition that the US only helps friendly regimes and let the other ones sink in the "XXI century socialism" predictable fiasco. I am not too sure about the hang up about Correa who is weaker than one would expect in spite of winning his referendum in rather scandalous conditions. To begin with he lost in Guayaquil, his home state, thus previewing the rise of a strong opposition much faster than what many will expect. And second the dollarization of Ecuador's economy which will limit his range of action. If Correa dares to leave the dollar zone the backlash could quickly undermine him and create conditions for an early exit. After all dollarization survived the constituent assembly, the ideal time to make such change, and thus Correa might have missed his real chance at controlling all à la Chavez.

But the Post is right on one thing: the satellites of Chavez need more the US than the US needs them and it is simply fair that the US start using its leverage in forcing them to chose once and for all between socialist misery or democracy and a diversified economy. The resources recovered them can be transferred to more reliable partners or allies such as Colombia, Peru and the rest of Central America. Crisis or no crisis, "capitalism" and true democracy have demonstrated historically to be resilient, a re-inventive system whereas autocratic socialism has yet to establish a successful example anywhere in the world. Time is on the US side and Western values and thus it is time that the US starts speeding things up by choosing who to help: the other side will rot even faster.

The other article is from O'Grady at the WSJ. It is a direct warning that the congressional democrats need to put their act together. We do observe indeed a tendency from the House to be too lenient towards extremist groups while refusing to vote the free trade treaty with Colombia. However we cannot help but be dismayed by that congressional ambivalence that does not exist with Obama who is called to become their leader next November (I think it is in the bag for him as I cannot foresee how the GOP will recover in one month from the financial crisis). I suspect that once Obama is in the white House things will straighten up some as it has been clear that part of the ambiguous congressional posturing was for electoral purposes. Freed of that pressure and looking ahead to 8 years of rule the trade treaty with Colombia can be easily voted, in particular with the help of Chavez as he wants nuclear energy. We should not forget that we can always rely on Chavez to offer his enemies the necessary arguments to counterattack him.

If the current summary of Venezuela situation by Ms O'Grady is excellent (includes a video where she stumbles on the word Nuclear), we can still regret that she could not resist the cheap shot of showing Pelosi and Cordoba in chavista red. The picture was taken a year ago, when Cordoba was still not as implied in terrorist activity and before the freedom of Ingrid Betancourt. Since that picture was taken even Chavez publicly broke with the FARC (even if we all know that secretly he is doing anything he can to help them, but that is another story). Probably today Cordoba would not be received anymore by Pelosi. However this partisan moment of O'Grady does not diminish at all the main point she makes: the US Congress will have to chose sides if it hopes to retain any relevance.

-The end-

And now a "glorious" cadena. What is Chavez up to?

To crown up the day, Chavez flew speedily from Puerto Cabello were he was 2 hours ago. He just popped out, exhausted at an "spontaneous" rally outside Miraflores (not that well attended as I could see but still, impressive enough for VTV courtesy of the dark). We got a cadena of course. His speech was short, the man is exhausted. He announced that a few people were being arrested for a coup attempt (coup? where? when? on the road from Caracas today I saw only "normalcy" everywhere).

The speech included the usual platitudes, that another coup was foiled, that the revolution was winning, that the opposition would never win, etc, etc... Of course neither during the speech nor through the day earlier we were shown real evidence of anything, not even the names of those arrested (except for some but without good reasons). He added that Venezuela would never had an ambassador exchange as long as the US did not get a real government.

In a way by itself the cadena might not mean much, was not that relevant except for the obvious attempt at making it a TV moment like the infamous propaganda movie "The Revolution will not be televised" of the Irish journalists frauds. So we must look meaning elsewhere, as in what is the situation for Chavez. It is grim. In no particular order.

• Oil prices are going down. At 100, when you subtract the large amounts that are going to Chavez international pet projects, Venezuela might be receiving in true only about 80$. That level is not enough for the current spending levels of Chavez, in a country were raising taxes further will simply kill private enterprise and dramatically slow down production. Even chavismo knows that further tightening will kill the golden goose.
• Maletagate, of course. The effect on the reputation of chavismo at home an abroad will be devastating medium term. Important business and investment decisions will be put on hold indefinitely or scrapped altogether. And a lot of government will be reluctant to have their picture taken with Chavez least they are considered corrupt too. One thing is rumors, another thing is an actual trial.
• The polls. They are not good for Chavez. The opposition keeps getting its act together. Tachira and Yaracuy are on the verge of final arrangements, leaving Bolivar state alone as the lone unresolved candidature. But chavismo is finding more and more trouble and rumors are coming up that a few changes will take place in the line up. The problem with that is the nature of changes, they will be imposed on Chavez and that can only damage further his ascendancy. That is, Chavez is losing control over his crowd which is more worrisome for him than the opposition getting 10 states on November 23.
• The economy. Inflation last months was still a whopping 1.8% which translates to a total of 50.7% on food since August 2007. And guess who is the most hit by food price increases? The chavista voter. The near stopping of private investment this year ensures that jobs in production of goods are not going to increase and that only bureaucratic jobs will be the only way for folks to get a steady income. For how long? And how many of them?
• The quality of life. Traffic is at an all time high. Police nowhere to be seen. Crime rate is not batting. Shortages are timidly starting to reappear, including gas. I have seen three gas stations closed or partially closed this week!!!! Blackouts, water scarcity, garbage accumulation, wrecked road, collapsing public transport, hospitals with longer and longer lines, etc....
• International policy. Ortega is less and less received and people refused to have their picture taken with him. Evo won his referendum but little good did it do to him. Cristina Kirchner is looking for ways to distance herself from Chavez. Castro might or might not be brain dead. Putin is using him, so obviously that it is embarrassing.
• The dollar US. Its climbing makes the huge Euros reserves he transferred less valuable. It might help Chavez import stuff from Europe but makes US imports relatively more expensive. And Chavez relies on a lot of these imports to keep his crowds happy.
• Bush is soon out. Who is Chavez going to attack? Obama?
  

So possibly Chavez is simply looking for a confrontation, his own Bay of pigs, to get rid once and for all of the opposition leadership, of his internal dissidence, to become once and for all Hugo I, king of all the Venezuelas. Any excuse would do, and if you need to invent yet another assassination attempt and arrest a few people without reason to get that excuse to crack down, or at least postpone difficult elections, so be it. This is how we should take all recent events, from the coup video, tot he Puerto Cabello anti US aggression, to the glorified hysteria of a mediocre cadena a few minutes ago.

Difficult days ahead, stay tuned.

-The end-

The United States ambassador in Caracas has 72 hours to leave Venezuela

Following the previous post, because now we know why Chavez insulted the United States of America a few minutes ago (Patrick Duddy).

I was watching Alo Ciudadano who on occasion shows live transmission of events taking place elsewhere in Venezuela, usually related to Chavez. The reason why they went to Puerto Cabello signal is that the guy monitoring the screens at Globovision had heard what Chavez said and cut through normal broadcasting to see if he was going to say more: he did, by insulting the Yankee crowd. And what did Chavez say before, that the anchor could not quote due to the speediness of the news: that he had just announced in a feverish attack that he was expelling the US of A ambassador. The guy had 72 hours to leave, and he decided that "in solidarity" with the people of Bolivia. That is right, Evo Morales apparently directs Venezuelan foreign policy. Well, Chavez foreign policy since it has long ceased to be a Venezuela foreign policy.

Chavez expels the US ambassador, but he does not break relations with the US. Why? Well, of course he is not going to break the relationship!!! He needs all the money he gets form oil sales to the evil empire to finance the evil corruption and vote buying over which he presides.

And why Chavez is taking such a useless but spectacular measure: because the trial in Miami is going on and he needs, DESPERATELY, to find ways to have people discuss something else. Kicking the US does usually works in such case, though this case might need more than a few kicks.

PS: the first note in the press was form AP, and I beat them in content and speed. Blogging rocks, on occasion, when your TV is not too far from your computer :) Even CNN is just announcing it!

PS2: at first Alo Ciudadano thought it was from Bolivar state but in fact it is from Puerto Cabello in Carabobo. Does not make a difference, as the Carabobo candidate is in even worse shape than the one in Bolivar state. But I had to correct it here, though I will not correct the previous post.

PS3: as a side issue, Leopoldo Castillo of Alo Ciudadano had to apologize on the air. The reason? The words of Chavez are too vulgar ("soez" was the Spanish term he used) to be broadcast a this time of day. In theory Globovision could be fined HEAVILY because it transmitted the words of Chavez. So Castillo had to preempt. In other words, the only person allowed to insult anyone on TV without any retenue is Chavez. Because you know that CONATEL is not going to complain to Chavez. And then some folks defend the freedom of expression in Venezuela....

-The end-

Reasons to like the US of A

After over a decade an a half living in the US I have learned to appreciate some of the good aspects of its political process. One of my favorite parts, for all the posturing and corniness that some times happen there, is the political conventions. So this week I have been following the Democratic Convention, the one that usually spoke to my Liberal tendencies. Had I been a US citizen I would have probably always voted Democrat except perhaps at Clinton 2, where for some strange reason I found Bob Dole compelling enough (not to mention that I never liked Clinton, conformed by his messing up of the health care reform to his wimpy and undignified back down at the "Don't ask, don't tell" fiasco).

This year I was particularity interested as I have failed to warm up to Obama. I suppose that after ten years back in Venezuela, and 10 years of the cheapest and most vulgar populism, anything that looks too good to be true lights up all my warning lights. I am not sure I would vote for Obama yet, but tonight he went a long way to convince me that he might be more than what I thought him to be. Still, my issues are not quite resolved as I do not like Biden, even though I must admit he makes a sensible ticket. This is good in a way because it will allow me to follow the Republican convention. The only times I followed both conventions were in 1980 and 1988. In 1980 because I was fresh and learning (though I had no TV then) and in 1988 because I lived in Boston then and I watched in horror Dukakis making all the mistakes that cost him his bid. In 1996 I only watched the Republican one, the other years watching the Democratic ones (though of course I never ignored completely the other side).

But my political views are not the point here, I just brought them up to establish how fascinated I was always by this brilliant exercise in democracy, so unique to the States, in spite of the fact that all mystery is usually removed before the convention starts. And that is what makes this exercise so fabulous, the work of reconciliation, the desire to build a real common political platform out of the bitter rivalries of the primary. This convention was no exception and contained some of the best speeches I ever heard in any US convention. Hillary, my favorite, rose to the occasion. For the first time I liked a Bill Clinton speech. Biden was acceptable to compelling and Obama did a great job, seeking blood, in the purest partisan but ever so democratic form. Democratic conventions are always much more fun to watch, there is no way around, there is no way the GOP can ever create such a party atmosphere. As far as I am concerned, from this week, I think that Obama has this thing wrapped up.

But of course there is much more than meet the eye here, because such a great and sometimes gratuitous exercise is only possible in a country with a great tradition of open debate, the McCarthy and Patriot Acts notwithstanding. Conventions are the summary. What I saw this week is difficult to think of it in Europe. Only recently France seems to be approaching this as the Socialists dared launch a true primary last time (the Right is much more reluctant, but it does put up a decent TV show at least). But in general European politics are much more ideological than the US ones, much too parliamentarian and sectarian to dare hold such a venting off arena. People keep forgetting one thing: for all the attempts at an ideological US body politics, from the Daily Kos crowd to the Bible thumping right, the GOP and the Dems still remain a coalition of interests much more than an ideological construct. A few weeks before general elections they must settle their issues and reach a basic compromise, otherwise they are doomed (McGovern anyone? or Bush Senior 2, if you prefer?). Sometimes I am sure that this is the success of US democracy who in spite of being a presidential system has managed to survive terrible catastrophes over more than two centuries.

The best line of this convention was from Bill Clinton, no doubt. I do not know whether he really penned it but it goes down in political history as the right thing to say at the right time, an amazing sense of what must be done.

"People have always been more impressed by the power of our example, than by the example of our power."

I, for one, do subscribe to that fully. If you doubt it look at Europe today, rebuilt under the Marshall Plan with a full belief in democratic values that came with the marines, no matter how many might hate that idea. What about Japan? Even a baseball power now! Or what about FDR managing to avoid extremism in spite of one of the worst recession of modern times? True, the power of the US in its century has been awesome but it would have been of little effect if it was not accompanied by example. And perhaps if Iraq is not the success that some hoped for is simply due because the US forgot to lead by example, from torturing prisoners to behaving like a colonial power. True, it is unfair to simplify the Iraq problem to a simple value question as I just did: it is too much of a complex issue, starting from the failure of Bush Senior to remove Saddam when no one would have cried for him. Was not the first Gulf War the perfect moment to break with common opinion and lead by example even if the UN did not allow for it?

But since this is a Venezuelan blog, that Clinton quote allows me to tie this post to the topic that occupies so much of our time.

Tonight as I was waiting for the convention coverage to start in earnest, I was watching Alo Ciudadano when a cadena came up. The reason was to receive a few Argentina businessmen, true leaches to come around to see what they can grab in Venezuela while the going is still good for them. Don't they know how their colleagues got robbed with SIDOR? Just there I know that this cadena was just yet another excuse for feeble propaganda; and we got it, but in real bad taste. Even though it was totally off topic as the cadena was supposed to be a "conversatorio" between Chavez and these Argentinean businessmen, it was mostly a Chavez monologue as any Argentine who was allowed a microphone knew better than talk for more than a couple of minutes: there is only one mic star here, and it is Hugo.

And what did El Surpremo spoke about? He wasted our time hallucinating about Bolivar and San Martin meeting at Guayaquil, rewriting history further. He launched yet another long tirade against the 2002 "coup", modifying again his own version of events. He insulted those who do not agree with him, using his current favorite word, "pitiyanki" (Yankee lover?) and other assorted choice words. Indeed, I suppose that after what I wrote above I certainly can be accused of pitiyankismo....

But then as I listened to the DNC I returned in mind to that cadena. How small is Chavez compared to all of these great politicians, who make flawless speeches sating their point forcefully without needing to insult their opponent (the Biden speech for example, where he stressed his personal friendship with McCain). And how powerful is their ability to compromise even as they cannot offer a genuine reconciliation. Chavez is simply unable to listen, to compromise, to forgive, to reconcile. It is beyond his understanding, and the few glimpses we might seem to find in him of such virtues are always tainted by secret agendas and incomplete pardons, almost as if he were to forgive some just as to be allowed to be even harsher on most.

It is not that I have any faith in US politicians, I know better. But tonight I was painfully shown the gap in between our democratic cultures. For all its fault the US system is able to produce politicians we are willing to listen to, who are actually saying something, who are able to let us know how stupid we are not to follow them without us feeling stupid as we hear their words. With Venezuelan politicians, chavistas in particular, we always know that we are scum. And with some opposition pols we are also scum, even thought it is not as blatant. In fact, some of the chavista officials reserve some of their worst insults to their own followers, a truly amazing phenomenon, almost as if leadership was acquired there through a nefarious pecking order from hell.

We are so primitive, so vulgar, and we seem to cultivate such characteristics. Perhaps after all we do deserve the fate that has befallen on us.

Meanwhile I am left to observe with sheer envy the US once again coming together at a time of crisis, producing history for us. Tonight for the first time an African American, and a first generation one at that, has been nominated to become the next president of the Country. And if it was not him, it would have been the first woman, equally historical a moment. Tonight we all sensed what is at stake, we all sensed that even if Obama does not make it next November, he has set the agenda of the country and McCain would not be able to escape it. The only real prospect is how fast the page will turn. Obama was not redundant in talking of integration, he talked of gay rights instead. The social revolution that started in the 60ies might not be complete yet, but with him it is advanced enough that is time to start a new one. The US will never cease to amaze us with its regeneration power. Meanwhile under Chavez we have fallen back prey to the worst ghosts of our past. Chavez dares to blame someone else, the US preferably, for his obscurantism and his true reactionary nature. And we have been following for ten years already, with no regeneration perspective in sight. We are so far from greatness.

-The end-

Immaturity politics

There has been a small scandal of sorts lately. Leopoldo Lopez, the Chacao Mayor running for Caracas Mayor at large went to the U.S. to explain to whomever would listen why the Russian/ruffian list was unconstitutional and strictly designed to bar him from winning the Caracas office (affecting a few other folks, but I am simplifying). Indeed all serious pollsters coincide for once: if elections were held tomorrow in Caracas, Leopoldo could be sworn in the next day.

There was also another small scandal when Leo came back to Venezuela as to how badly he was harassed at the airport by dumb security officers. No one should be surprised, sycophantic chavistas have learned long ago how to pick up the political line du jour and try to score brownie points with El Mucho Macho Supremo (Mucho Macho coming from a devoted reader of this blog). Last week we had such an undignified example when the National Assembly changed all its schedule on important law making to follow on Chavez cue and congratulate Russian, calling the folks on the list "ladrones", thieves, even though their only crime was to use some money destined to pay, say, street repairs, to pay wages because Chavez increased them by 30% suddenly.

But of course, anyone that does not support unconditionally Chavez is attributed all sins, including having breakfast with roasted chavista children.

These sad episodes, including Leopoldo pleading over at Obama who has yet to be elected president and who will have more pressing issues once at the White House, made me consider again how immature Venezuelan politics have become. The National Assembly unworthy display of last Wednesday is just another example on how all of our political class is now mostly a bunch of drama queens, an appropriate comparison today as it is Gay Pride around the world and some of the parade screaming queens have way more credibility and decorum than people like Carlos Escarra, Barreto, or even Leopoldo on his bad days. But then again the example for the whole country these past 10 years has been Chavez drama queen tantrums, sometimes in a variety of costumes and from the most diverse locales. Perhaps a little leather drag, harness and chaps would make Chavez more convincing when he threatens us?

I was wondering aloud what was worse, for Leopoldo going to seek Obama and look all starry eyed at him from down below (Leo is very short) or Chavez going to Cuba, again, to seek, again, advice and comfort from old senile Castro (who he looks at as starry eyed as Leopoldo did gaze Obama). Yes, why is it that all our leaders must go overseas to solve their problems? How come Chavez cannot understand that the Castro's model has failed and that they use him to solve THEIR problems? How come so many in the Venezuelan opposition are waiting for the Marines to land and solve their problems, because they are too lazy to do something about it, not having time to march, to protest, to vote, to monitor polling stations, to etc...?

In all fairness I think that Leopoldo Lopez is way more aware than Chavez that the solution to his problems lies inside Venezuela. Yet this cannot excuse him from doing such a PDA towards Obama. At least we will get something out of this: Chavez will not be able now to use the fact that Obama is not white for his own political advantage: black or white, serious and skilled US politicians know Chavez is a creep.

However if the opposition is slightly more clear eyed than chavismo as to what they can get outside Venezuela, they have a knack at killing their own when they dare to try to do something positive for the cause, even if somewhat ill conceived. The biggest example of self destruction is of course the abstention movement created to abstain from voting without any alternate strategy or goals. Action and emotional reaction, for ten years Chavez has been playing us looking as a skilled strategist which he is not: his victories are due more to opposition errors and his fat check book than any real Machiavellian planning from his part. Doubt it? Then wonder come that after 10 years he still does not feel secure in power and he still resorts to infantile "us against them" strategy?

In fact no matter where we look from, political leaders are primitive, infantile and/or uncouth. With the few worthy exceptions such as Teodoro Petkoff (though his own failings barred him form ultimate success) we are all showmen, all seeking the immediate and easy solution, just like young kids. Chavistas prefer sycophancy and follow the leader with a hefty dose of violence to settle issues. Opposition followers use the now it's my turn and the mine-mine coupled to my Daddy is stronger than yours.

But this would be merely amusing if it were not made lethal when double standards are brought into play to confuse everything and transform childish poses into primitive warfare. This blog is made of the use and abuse of double standards by Chavez and chavismo to divide and conquer. The Russian list is just the latest avatar. But the opposition is far from being exempt. I should recall two famous visits to the White House held by Bush-Devil: one was Maria Corina Machado, the SUMATE leader and the other one by Tabare Vasquez, the left wing president of Uruguay.

When Maria Corina got to the White House of course chavismo got on such a great counter propaganda bonus. But Maria Corina was seriously criticized at home by some folks from her camp, including Milagros Socorro, a voice of conscience around here. These critics either confused Bush and the US (the interests of a State with the interests of an individual) or simply were jealous that she was received and they were not. Maria Corina is, contrary to most of her critics (vocal or not) someone who acted and who tried to do something to end our nightmare. But panning her success was necessary least she would become a Venezuelan political leader, something that could not be allowed by some. The fact of the matter is that since that fateful visit her star started to dim and today she is relegated to a rare back page tidbit of news. If Milagros Socorro was right to limit her criticism to poor timing and manners for Maria Corina, too many folks were only to glad to make Milagros the fall girl on their wish to remove Maria Corina from the front scene, chavistas and anti chavista alike.

The counter example would be the visit of an all smiles Tabare at the White House, followed by a return visit by Bush to Uruguay. Tabare Vasquez does not confuse the state interests of Uruguay and the US with the provisional holder of the presidential mansion. And yet where are the cries of outrage from either chavismo or opposition? I am pretty sure that Milagros Socorro did condemn that visit but after all the flack she took from those who will not hit with a rose petal an opposition leader, she probably did not contemplate writing another OpEd piece, even though such an article was badly needed to rub the vent into the face of chavismo!

The problem is not that we do the necessary criticism to Leopoldo or Maria Corina, is that we expect too much of them. The problem for chavistas is not the opposition criticisms, it is that too many of them see Chavez as a Messiah, and that even more of them see our criticism as a threat to their continued looting of the state. As long as a society we keep following the lead of Chavez and refuse to differentiate criticism from insult we will remain mired in our mediocrity.

I think that we have not learned our lessons from the school yard, pretending that we are still there at play...

-The end-

The US versus Chavez: was it worth?

It has been almost ten years of continuous anti US rhetoric from Chavez. And in a few weeks San Felipe will be inaugurating its new Burger King, right across the McDonald that has been running for about 5 years. Thus this corner of deep Venezuela will look a little bit more like any US anonymous suburbia.

I took this picture just as a family was getting out of a "buseta", a rickety old truck converted in some form of bus, a picture which I took accidentally before the above shot (click pics to enlarge). As you will see there is absolutely nothing glamorous about the mode of transport that this family took to go to McDonald. They are what US/European clichés love to call the "downtrodden dark skinned masses whose better fate has been brought courtesy of chavismo". And yet? where are they going to have their Saturday fun meal? At McDonald.

That is right, it is true, they have more money than before and can afford more stuff. Including the ideological symbol of the hated empire: McDonald (and surely Burger King in a future week end outing). I wonder if thsi family belongs to some "mision", if they are public workers, if they attended electoral rally to support chavismo. Maybe they did, maybe they did not, but they end up at McDonald anyway.

Because make no mistake, the odds that their new acquired relative wealth are coming from some private sector activity is very low. The industrial park of San Felipe has still an abandoned look, half the land is still unbuilt or abandoned with some ruins in the middle. Since 1999 there has been only three new "business": a new experimental university (UNEY), a central MERCAL distribution area and the latest one, a cooking gas bottling facility from PDVSA. In the same period at least 6 private business have closed down. Elsewhere in the area the only thing that has grown is the commercial district. But you would be very hard pressed to find new and shinny production facility in the area...

Thus this picture is actually two symbols. First, the failure of chavismo to distract folks from consuming US products and US lifestyle, no matter what is their social background (pictures of chavistas visiting the US and shopping abound all through the Internet). The US invasion is already here, it fills up malls showrooms and the bellies of those who visit. And second the economic failure in spite of recent high growth rates. We import all, even our food, export less and less, and things get worse as the price of oil keeps increasing.

Meanwhile the little joint I used to patronize in my earlier days at San Felipe, Cachapas Coa, is near dead. It used to have some of the best cachapas in Venezuela (as read in the guides of Valentina Quintero). The owners are (were?) chavistas and they tried to keep cost down, to remain close to the people. Service suffered, the already rustic "decoration" could not keep up, people showed less and less and the quality of cachapas started to fall. Now, I rarely go and when I go for lunch I am one of the very few customers even though the cachapas are almost as good as they were before (when you go at jojoto season, that is). But McDonald always as a crow for lunch, with a simple Mac at four times a delicious, natural, Venezuelan Cachapa...

Qu'elle était belle ma revolution!


-The end-

The fairness and receptivity of the Venezuelan Judicial system

Yesterday we got yet another proof that the Venezuelan judicial system has become simply another repressive arm of the regime. In fact, as we have often discussed in this page the closest branch of the Venezuelan government to a dictatorial situation is the judicial system. The evidence we discussed on and off is as follows, in no particular order:

- justices chanting "Uh! Ah! Chavez no se va!" during the installation of the judicial year.
- extraordinary delays when judging opposition figures, the longer the delays of course, the weaker the evidence. Look for example at the Caracas Police directors sitting in jail for three years already while their trial goes at a snail pace, the judges inventing all sorts of delays.
- the speed in judgment of chavista figures, in case these ones actually find themselves investigated.
- the failure to reach conclusion which in some cases is equal to a negative sentence against an opposition figure. The Danilo Anderson case for which management the general prosecutor should have been fired long ago resulted in his quiet departure at the end of the term while some of the folks he has indicted on account of a false witness remain investigated or in exile.
- and of course all the astounding fast political decisions taken by he high court when the government needs them in his favor. Take for illustration one of the most famous ones, the illegal seizure without compensation of all the transmission equipment of RCTV, a robbery in facts, whereas all the filed suits as to the closing of RCTV remain gathering dust in some TSJ shelf.

That is why Chavez can get away with a de facto dictatorship while still tolerating unfair elections and an increasingly less free press. After all it does not matter what you uncover, what abuse you expose, when you hit a tribunal your complaint sometimes is not even registered. That is the root of the power of Chavez, the most extraordinarily submitted judicial system in our history, morally corrupt to the extreme, and possibly financially corrupt too. After all, what judge in Venezuela would dare rule against a chavista judge?

Today we can add something new to this repetition, a necessary one though since foreign readers might be inclined to think that there is justice in Venezuela since we are technically in a democracy. Yesterday a few students tried to protest in the Zulia tribunals of Maracaibo. Their justified protest was against the unjustified and unjustifiable delays in some political trials going on. They also tried to chain themselves to some door which might have been justifiable but probably not at that given time. Still, nothing can justify the reaction of the security guards of the Zulia tribunals. In the video below you can watch the vicious way into which these guards beat up some of the students, a violence out of all proportion with the moment, when simply closing the doors and accuse the students of obstructing access to justice would have been enough, and probably even reflect favorably on the court.



I do not know about you, but when the tribunal security seems even more vicious than the Nazional Guard of Venezuela, you know that there is no justice possible. You can see for yourself, no need for translation, for example how unconscious folks on the floor are still being beaten up and how of course the security guards know they are doing the wrong thing and trying to also shut down the cameras filming. Cowardly chavista storm troopers in all their splendor! Because of course, all of these "security workers" are chavista political appointees, I will bet anything on that.

By the way, for the record, there is nothing to expect from the president of the TSJ, Luisa Estela Morales. She has been fired twice from courts for "malpractice", a mediocre lawyer at best, who became the absolutely unfit president of the TSJ because Chavez wanted an unconditional there is not going to even offer an apology or an investigation on these excesses. Let's not forget that she is also an agricultural expert in that she thinks like Chavez that the "conuco" is the best possible form of agricultural production, never minding that it has denuded most mountains of their natural vegetation leaving behind a waste land of poor grass and rocks where once stood a deciduous forest. In other words, she is just a bitchy hack, the Elena Ceausescu of the Venezuelan judicial system. Expect more scenes like that video in the future.


-The end-

Two Latin Americas (and two US)

This week started with yet a new display on why Latin America might never be able to get from under its undeveloped status: our love for inane myth. Not that other cultures do not fall under the sway of their own myth which on occasion can spell disaster for them, but it seems that in Latin America we have developed a talent to seek such myths even when they come with a warning label.

On the other hand, we have a US that still does not get it and sometimes seems to be doing all what it cans to perpetuate such myths, making one wonder if the subconscious of the US actually wants us to remain "primitive" (or was that exotic?)

The "Che" 40 year death commemoration

I do not want to talk much about that. Words fail me to explain why a mass murderer can be shown today as a beacon of love and peace. I am not talking about our delirious tropi-banana local Venezuelan potentate, so blinded by "che" cult, that he said a few days ago that any graduating MD that joined private practice was just a mercenary, was not in his eyes an MD (ensuring this way that Venezuela will not be forming good doctors anymore). No, I am talking about the opinions on the Che that many youth expressed when any mic would be placed in front of them. Apparently years of ignoring the reality of the Che in schools have created a generation that believes that the Che was the iconic 13th disciple. Maybe Dr. Mengele supporters might want to review their promotional strategy. They could look in the US where merchandising has yielded handsome dividends by selling tons of memorabilia to people who the Che would have so much loved to destroy.

An Ecuadoran constituent assembly

Although this piece f news is technically a week old I am including it here as it truly belongs to the topic of inane myths ruling our conduct. It is not idle to remember that Correa, Ecuador president for one year now was elected on a second round ballot AFTER having arrived second in a first round, with not even 30% of the popular vote. Yet, for some unexplainable reason he has managed to get high ratings and pulled out an electoral victory one week ago which will give him a solid majority to push any constitution he feels like. The Venezuelan script is so far followed to the letter, even though Correa should have the credentials to be a more democratic leader than our local tropi-potentate. When you see someone like Oppenheimer who has talked to all LatAm presidents describe Correa as one of the most arrogant leaders he ever met, then you might get a clue...

I am not going to worry much about Correa. The only chance he has to make his project to become life president of Ecuador (his protest to the contrary are lame and after tropi-bananator example we all know much better) is to succeed in bringing Ecuador out of the US dollar belt. I doubt that Ecuadorans will vote for a new currency now that they are starting to enjoy the benefits of a solid currency. But one never knows, countries have done the suicide thing. Besides it would not be the first time that Ecuadorans elected a wildly popular leader to toss him out even faster.

No, what is interesting here is that a mass hysteria is leading the country to believe that yet a new constitution will solve the problems of the country. They could have asked Colombians how that did work for them. They could ask Venezuelans how this is working out for them. They could have asked how Bolivians are coping with it. Not to mention other such attempts such as Peru and Brazil who on the long run have not floundered as badly. Apparently the new constitution mantra has become a new myth, the latest offering for messianic leaders to reach power.

And the US, from the height of the longest serving constitution of the continent seems unable (or unwilling?) to even offer constructive advice. Not that it should, but it would be nice to hear a US president say that constitutions are only as good as the people who apply them. Then again, that would question certain US presidents, would it not?

A free trade referendum in Costa Rica

Fortunately to compensate for a bad electoral result in Ecuador and the anti modernity folly of the Che we had a good vote in Costa Rica. No matter whether one agrees with Free Trade Agreements, anyone should at least understand that a small country like Costa Rica can only survive and thrive in an open economy. The garden variety of FTA to apply can be discussed, but they are a must for a country who has only nature and its people skills to sell. Well, for a few weeks we were concerned that Costa Rica would turn its back to any FTA. For the tropi-bananism that would have been a good result since their objective is to create a free trade zone where mediocrity is the commodity and oil the rewards for servility. Colder heads prevailed. Even if the margin is narrow, soon Costa Ricans will start enjoying for example the benefits of modern communication technology at lower prices, and will be able to retain investors and increase their market share in the only market that counts for the Caribbean, for better or worse the US. It is that or exporting migrants to the US: there was no other choice unfortunately. For those who doubt this I would urge them to observe the results of the nationalizations of CANTV and EAS in tropi-bananaland: service is noticeably down and the joints have been taken over barely 6 months ago!

But that Tico success as usual did not come with the help of the US. I am not impressed by the new democratic congress leadership. And I would be a registered Democrat if I lived in the US (if anything because Dem primaries are usually much more interesting). I do understand that they do have a need to deal with Iraq but their anti Bush rhetoric is coloring some aspects that should not be touched, that should be bi-partisan no matter what. The Washington Post editorial today has a very nice summary of that referendum battle in Costa Rica, and inasmuch as the Post is considered a Liberal paper, it clearly and willfully endorsed the Costa Rican result as a victory.

Thus it is with dismay that I read in that editorial:

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.)and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) wrote Costa Rica's ambassador in Washington to say that Costa Rica would not necessarily lose current U.S. trade benefits under the Caribbean Basin Initiative, which expires in September, if the pact were rejected.

That is wrong on many levels. First, no one asked them to do so (even if trade unions asked them, Costa Rica is too small a country to be a threat). Second, foreign policy is conducted by the executive power. This one requiring a two third approval of treaties in the Senate CANNOT negotiate anything it wants. Foreign policy in the US is usually a bi-partisan affair by necessity, at the very least when a treaty will result form a given initiative. Third, it was a lie as the State Department promptly pointed out. And last but certainly not least, it did go squarely against US interests in the region. Amen of US intervention in a Costa Rican affair by the Democrats in Congress!!!!

I observe with the greatest dismay that the Congressional leadership is slowly but surely, (for personal vendetta?) taking a policy that is detrimental for the US interests in the region and which in the medium term can only profit the anti US agenda in the area. There is something worrisome when Democrats start looking at their navel as it is certainly not the Republicans who will take them out this self gazing.... If in a way that Costa Rica demarche might have been a token thrown to trade unions by Pelosi so she can be freer for bigger things, it is not reassuring that the Colombian FTA approval is all but doomed, which will result in dire consequences for the US, starting with increased drug supplies. What incentives will be left for ANY Colombian government once they are told that the US does not want an FTA with them? In case Pelosi et al. have forgotten, the only incentive that Colombians have to stop growing coca leaves is to grow or manufacture stuff to sell the US. That is it for Congress, or doing an Iraq on Colombia; and we all know how that worked.

-The end-

Delightful gossip of the day: US delegation in trouble at customs

Nelson Boccaranda, gossip extraordinaire of EL Universal, and only too often shown that he is not a gossip after all, tells us that some stoooopid custom officials in Maiquetia stopped some security members of the US delegation coming for the Copa America. Apparently following the inspiration of EL Supremo they were not going to allow a US invasion of Venezuela, even if it comes from two security guards of the US team, duly approved before hand by the Venezuelan foreign office.

In another event, the San Cristobal stadium had a flag of all participating teams except the one form the US. The Copa international officials had to personally ensure that the US flag was also hoisted.....

So the glorious Bolibananarian Revolution will have a new glorious date: the battle of Maiquetia where an invasion of two US security guards was delayed by three hours, and the siege of San Cristobal where for a few days the US flag could not float!!!!!

You know something, such a gossip is too good to be invented. I bet you that Boccaranda is not gossiping this time. Next, the gossip as I received it in Spanish (sorry no time to translate right now)

Incidente con la Delegacion Estadounidense para la Copa América

A pesar de haber acordado con la cancillería venezolana el poder contar con dos guardaespaldas armados para la seguridad del equipo estadounidense, ayer a su llegada a maiquetia los 2 gurdaespaldas fueron retenidos un par de horas en medio de un incidente que pudo haberse tornado mas grave y hasta haber provocado el retiro del grupo americano.

Elfuncionario Edgar Alvarado -jefe de control del Seniat en Maiquetía- y Fernando Viloria -Jefe de la División de Inteligencia de la Fuerza Aérea venezolana en Maiquetía (?)-
provocaron y maltrataron no solo a los guardias sino a los deportistas y a losdiplomaticos de la embajada americana que fueron a recibirlos al aeropuerto.

Los esfuerzos de la cancilleria para liberar a los detenidos dieron sus frutos tres horas despues.

Los dos funcionarios del seniat y la FAV desconocieron los acuerdos entre la cancilleria y el gobierno de estados unidos pues "nosotros no vamos a permitir que dos gringos miembros del imperio de bush entren armados pues eso seguro es parte de un plan invasorio"

Esa obsesión anti imperialista es similar al no izamiento de la bandera de EE.UU. en el estadio de San Cristóbal, hecho reparado dos dias despues...por las autoridades de la Copa

-The end-