Chiming on Brazil [file under "famous last words" section]

This one is short.

Cabello's adventures, or when the US of A pays its failed foreign policies

WSJ front page narco national assembly chair Diosdado Cabello was on quite a grand tour this past week. Before we run into all sorts of speculations let's look at the pictures and then stick to the bare facts of the situation. You'll find out, I trust, that things may not be as complicated as you may think.

The little friends Diosdado went to visit were the ones from Brazil: ineffable Lula who has helped actively the red corruption spread all over the continent and,

All smiles, presents exchanged, luncheon awaiting in the back.
The HSBC 14 billion man, the Memsalao/Petrobras man and the NarcoCapo man

How much "save Castro!" is part of the agenda about Venezuela?

I have written on and off about how vital Venezuela has become for the survival of the Castro brothers, and maybe their system. In the latest mention of this I was listing LatAm countries whose leaders cannot bear the fall of the Cuban regime as it would be a blow of their raison d'être.  I need to come back on this with more emphasis after the words of Brazil's ex president Lula calling upon Maduro to create a "coalition" government to bring Venezuela out of its current crisis (in English here).

Now what? The Venezuela that Chavez inherit

Fortunately this post is short because I just need to redirect you to a great article of Moisés Naím in El País of Spain. Spanish version here and English version there.

This article is remarkable not for its style, it is a list, nor for its writing, it is a list, but for the precision, concision and the "to the point-ness" you sense when you read it. Clearly Mr. Naím is past any illusion as to the future of Venezuela and what is actually scary in his article is that there is nothing that you can nitpick.

What I would like to underline is the last paragraph where Mr. Naím puts clearly part of the blame for the situation on Brazil who had no qualms in letting Venezuela deteriorate as long as it became its bigger provider of everything. I will add that Brazil has behaved towards Venezuela as any imperial colonial power had, using the weakness of the natives for its own selfish benefit. It is remarkable, for me at least, that such a notable intellectual from the center left in all of its modern meaning takes down Lula AND Rousseff the way he does, just after a campaign where Capriles failed even though they tried to embrace Brazil current model if it were the last life jacket available.

Lula is still at it, screwing up Venezuelans

What is one to think about the recent trip of Brazil's ex president Lula da Silva to Venezuela and Cuba?

Political earthquake in Brazil? Lula fails to elect Dilma on the first round

UPDATED. In a tiny little bit of a Colombia syndrome, Dilma Roussef, Lula's handpicked successor will have to fight it out for a second round vote in a few weeks.  In fact, with 70% of the votes counted there is the real possibility that she will reach barely 45%, thus making it possible for Serra to beat her in the second round, though by no more than a point or two even if the surprising Marina Silva scored much better than expected as the third runner.

Filho de puta: Teodoro Petkoff breaks with Lula over his support to Cuban murderers

I cannot stress enough the importance of this mini-editorial of Teodoro Petkoff, Tal Cual editor, published today in Tal Cual. He has been a long time admirer of Brazil's president Lula da Silva. But the words of this one justifying the murders of political prisoner in Cuba were too much, and outranked any good that Lula might have done.  We must welcome such a break up because it is a sign of things to come as the complacent left cannot remain complacent any longer in front of such a blinding reality. My feelings, exactly. Below the translation AND the original Spanish for those who cannot access Tal Cual

Filho de puta / Son of bitch [whore sense of course]

When Lula won Brazil's election a best seller was published with the title of Filho do Brasil which means Son of Brazil.  More recently, based on this book, a movie was produced with the same title and the same theme: the career of the Nordeste kid who from extreme poverty made it to the president's office, through years of hard and devoted struggle, in particular under military dictatorships.

XXI century racism

We have a XXI century socialism and we can say that it i nicely accompanied by a XXI century racism. Or how else can you explain that in Cuba we have political prisoners who starve themselves to death in defense of their Human Rights, and who are, GASP! African Americans, Blacks, Niggers, whatever you want to name them. BUT, they are the people that supposedly, allegedly, according to the Castro-chavismo propaganda were supposed to be the ones for which that XXI century crapism was lucubrated?

I found this poster at Babalu and I found it very appropriate to broach a subject over which I had not written much yet.  Not that Chavez leaves me with no time but because I did not know quite how to write about it.

Cancun secrets

 No, this is not going to be about the spat between Uribe and Chavez, where Chavez was exposed and humiliated once again but where Uribe did not look too good either.  The surprise here was not Chavez trying to grab headlines, that is about the only thing he can do these days, for which he is willing to do anything, as silly as it might be.  No, the surprise was that a normally cool Uribe lost it.  Or did he?

2010 for Latin America (the failure of Lula?)

This map lifted from the Economist will do fine to introduce a Latin American forecast of 2010 because it explains a lot. If you observe well, all of Hispanic America is in trouble, besides Costa Rica, Uruguay and Cuba (then again, how could trouble start in totalitarian Cuba?). Flanking that zone of probably social unrest there is the US and Brazil. This last country has decided to take advantage of the relative USA weakness to make a gamble and establish it area of influence across the sub continent.

For quite a while I have been writing about Brazil imperialism, US withdrawal, and such things. But when we look at the result of Honduras elections, not the vote count but the reactions around, it seems that suddenly a few cards are falling. The clearer hint comes probably from Uribe deciding to recognize the new Lobo government while a few yards away at the Lisbon summit Lula kept saying that there is no way Brazil will recognize the Honduras vote, just as he was fresh from receiving Ahmadinejad who has killed infinitely more people than Micheletti, and quite deliberately at that. At least on a morality point of view Lula would do better to shut his big mouth.

Lula lies

At the Iberoamerican summit at Estoril the Honduras vote brings the worse in some. One of them is Lula, who huffing and puffing left before the end saying there is no way he will recognize the Honduras result, nor will he talk to Lobo. So far we can accept that but what we cannot accept is the following, according to this dispatch from Europa Press:

The coupster (Roberto Micheletti) acted with cynicism, gave a coup in the country and called for elections when he had no right to do so.

I do not know about you but I detect at least 2 lies and possibly a third one (I should check the Portuguese words maybe?).

The elections, dear president Lula da Silva, were already scheduled before the coup, to the point that even the candidates had been selected by the major parties. That someone in your position utters such nonsense is unacceptable and only reveals that your plans have been trumped and that you are just behaving like the young thug at the sand box keeping the other kids out.

And indeed this tantrum of you seem to be confirmed by you addressing the words of Oscar Arias to you when he questioned your easy recognition of Ahmadinejad, accepting without problem the Iran elections while refusing to discuss the Honduras one. The one with the double moral is you, president da Silva, not Arias.

Thus, dear President Lula da Silva, your early exit is unbecoming, and is made worse when you add that had you known Honduras would have been in the agenda you would not have come. Does that mean that if we do not follow your agenda any future summit will not be graced by your spoiled brat presence?

As my very esteemed colleague Juan Cristobal wrote yesterday, Dear president Lula you look much more like a ignoramus brandishing the pitchfork than a respected world leader aspiring to a permanent seat in the UN security council.

-The end-

Pre War grumblings? Brazil's dirty game?

Today we got a border incident with Colombia. This is worrisome because it seems that Colombia is starting to call in Chavez' s bluff (and Brazil's UNASUR own bluff). I still do not think that Colombia wants war, but it seems that they are getting tired of Chavez antics and of the hypocrisy of Brazil. If there is going to be war, "so be it"?

All along the attitude of Brazil has been dismal and Colombia yesterday had to call it on. We should not be surprised by Brazil's imperialistic attitude: anything that helps Colombia become a stronger country is a No-No for Brazil. Chavez and Argentina they do not fear: these two countries are self imploding and Brazil pretty much has the former by the balls. Peru is too far physically to be of any threat and is far from being a stable country yet. Chile is simply off the Brazilian radar and the small countries around are doomed one day or the other to become economic satellites. Only Colombia could become a danger for Brazil political ambitions, big enough, populated enough, with neighbors that would easily rally around Colombia if Brazil were to become too greedy.

We must accept something: Brazil's foreign policy seems to have lost its former steady professional demeanor. With the way it favors Chavez over Colombia and its naked intervention in Honduras it seems the US might have more to fear from the hypocrite ally that Brazil pretends to be than from the open antagonist that Chavez is.

PS: [added next day] If you want to learn more about Lula's hypocrisy you could do worse than reading Olavo de Carvalho interview by Alek Boyd

-The end-

UNASUR in Quito: another Chavez defeat?

So Correa assumed office today with a 40% approval rating, a ten points loss since his reelection, with an intractable conflict with Colombia, economic troubles, a break in his coalition, a dollarized economy that limits his populism and more. The only think he could come up with was a promise of more radicalization of his government and an attack on the local media. Let's not call it a regime yet, as we must give it the benefit of the doubt that a genuine new constitution will be put to work in Ecuador. But considering the history of the country we can already start wondering whether Correa will finish his term...

But I digress, the real news was UNASUR.

As we were all expecting yesterday, ALBA et al were going to try to gang up on Uribe. They tried but they did not succeed, even though Chavez broke protocol (imagine that!) and went on a speech on the "winds of war". In the end the UNASUR summit, the wanna-be NATO cum OAS for South America, failed to produce the Colombian condemnation that Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador sought so desperately. And I use the word "desperate" deliberately.

Not only that but president Lula said that dialog should be long and extensive, that the US should be included and that folks should be willing to hear hard truths. I guess that last part was meant for Chavez more than for the US and Uribe, you know....

"People will have to listen to hard truths, on the contrary UNASUR risks becoming a club of pals encircled by enemies from everywhere" [My translation]

Preliminary conclusions:

1) Uribe's tour last week seems to have been way more successful than anticipated, at least by Chavez

2) Chavez convenient (imagined?) Colombian invasion of yesterday did not help his cause. Nor did his drama queen speech. He did not get anything he wanted at Quito except a song a dance that evening by Correa's supporters.

3) Lula is taking seriously UNASUR and as yours truly told you, Lula knows that without Colombia, the second army of the subcontinent in number and quite likely the number one in readiness, UNASUR is meaningless. You can bet that he will do his utmost to force Colombia and Chavez to reach some understanding

4) Last but not necessarily least though it is too early to tell, the absence of Uribe and his foreign minister (Colombia only sent a vice minister) does not seem to have hurt him much. Within a very few weeks a new summit will be held possibly in Argentina where these questions will be discussed. On that respect the show of Chavez at Quito probably helped immensely Uribe: the BBC reports that at declaration time all presidents looked ill at ease. Chavez needs to learn that at international meeting serious heads of state are not keen to gang up on the absent unless the absent is a totally rogue regime which is very far from being the case of Colombia. Or put it in a more pedestrian way, Chavez needs to learn that international summits are not managed like a bully would manage the school yard or a boot camp.

But not is smooth sailing for Uribe, far from it. He gained a nice respite but he still has lots of work to do. At least now Chavez will be less of a pain in the neck, confined to cheap vociferation from Caracas.

Meanwhile it is not getting any better for Chavez in Honduras even though he paraded Zelaya in Quito all day long. Obama is now on the record saying that Chavez attitude in Honduras is an hypocrisy. Here are his words:

"The same critics who say that the United States has not intervened enough in Honduras are the same people who say that we're always intervening and the Yankees need to get out of Latin America"

"If these critics think that it's appropriate for us to suddenly act in ways that in every other context they consider inappropriate, then I think what that indicates is that maybe there's some hypocrisy involved in their -- their approach to U.S.-Latin American relations"

Canadian Prime Minster Stephen Harper supported the statements made by Mr. Obama, suggesting that "If I were an American, I would be really fed up with this kind of hypocrisy."

"You know, the United States is accused of meddling except when it's accused of not meddling," Harper said.

Now observe that Harper is a "right wing" politician and Obama a "left wing", at least in the reductionist mind of some and yet Harper came with this strong support. That is what is expected from true allies, from statesmen that are able to look a little bit further than what plays at home. It also seems that Obama paused briefly before using the H word. I love it....

Definitely, yet another rotten day for Chavez....


-The end-

Colombia cornered?

With the recent breathless events in Colombia I think it is time that we review a little bit the situation. And as it is usually the case it is best to start with a map. Courtesy of Google Earth I made the one below, which might not be the prettiest one for sure but more useful than anything else I could find in the net.

The situation BEFORE the latest Venezuela/Colombia break up

Three things before I start: 1) I am not making any judgment call or pretending to favor one position over the other, all what follows is a statement of fact or close to it; 2) some things I will write are not P.C. and would never be said in staid diplomatic circles, but you can always try to prove me wrong and 3) I will not put links because there would be too many links to add; read this as a tall tale if you wish or trust me, it is up to you.

The fact of the matter is that Colombia today has every right to feel like a cornered country; not by a lack of friends, it does have some, but the countries around its vital borders are now ruled by avowed enemies not only of Uribe but of any Colombian government that will not welcome the FARC as a ruling partner.

The red flat arrows represent these countries actively wishing for a change of regime in Colombia and taking all measures they can take to that effec,t short of open warfare. Venezuela, Colombia and Nicaragua now are in open confrontation while Cuba still with official links to Colombia is the evil machinery behind all of this all. More than Venezuela, for its human value Colombia would be the golden fleece of Castrism; Colombia is a complicated country to attack militarily so a good base from where to launch attacks, only a step away from the Panama Canal and Venezuela's oil.

To compensate these un-friends Colombia has very little. Brazil is a neutral country at best. But Brazil is empire building and it is not in its interest that any Spanish speaking country develops enough to become one day a challenge. In XXI century "empires" is not understood as actual territorial conquest but as areas of infleucne where the people in hit are just too linked to the main power to dare go against it. The only country that could do so one day is Colombia, not by its size but by its land a climate that can support a consequent population, its relative better education and its privileged strategic position: no matter how strong Brazil becomes, as long as Colombia is prosperous and at the center of a sensible alliance (with or without the US) Brazil will never be able be the US of South America. Bolivar already anticipated this since his dream of Gran Colombia was the ideal wedge between the inevitable rise of the US and Brazil. Thus the wavering yellow line at its border, a relatively safe border for Colombia just because Bogota and Brasilia are so distant. That yellow line could turn red at any time.

In front of all this Colombia has only two friendly neighbors. Peru is far and ethnically different enough that there is no significant rivalry there. Besides Peru is much more mired in its Southern flank instability. Currently both countries have different political ruling groups but they share one thing, the belief that free markets, with some control, are the best way to dig from underdevelopment. As such Colombia and Peru have shown a rather healthy economic grow in the recent decade, and generally warm relations.

Panama is small and a small piece of Colombia to begin with. But it has become one of the playgrounds of rich Colombians who can hide there part of their fortunes. Adding to this that the border is a very inhospitable jungle, there is no hard feelings left. With the new political turn to the right in Panama we can even expect a closer relation. Costa Rica is enemy with no one but probably prefers Colombia to Nicaragua or Venezuela. And we can expect a post Zelaya Honduras to establish warm relations with Colombia: if there is a country that understands the need to get rid of chavismo/FARC at all costs is Colombia.

Now that I hope the context is established let's look at what happened in recent days.

The FARC rockets

The trigger was disarmingly simple: the Colombian Army found in a FARC camp small rocket launchers made in Sweden and sold to Venezuela before Chavez became president. Chavez this week finally explained the reason these rockets found their way to the FARC: they robbed them in 1995 or something like that. Not very convincing, and curiously pointless. More important, the explanations came AFTER he suspended relations with Colombia and after he expressed unambiguously that he wanted to stop commercial deals with Colombia. In other words, that he did things in the reverse order proves that his intention all along was to find an excuse to break with Colombia once and for all.

The reasons for this sudden radicalization can be found in the internal situation of Venezuela where Chavez got three very worrisome polls this week. All conclude that a reelection in 2012 is looking uphill with three long years to go where the only hope is a return of oil to the 100 USDso as to bring him out of the financial ditch he has fallen. As the fascist-like regime he now presides Chavez resorts to well worn strategies such as crude nationalist baiting.

But the reason can also be found in the complete dossier that Colombian intelligence has established on the Chavez government. If in Venezuela the press is a little bit demure, or lazy, in doing the necessary inquiring, when you read the Colombian one you can see by yourself the amount of details exposed, with names of Venezuelan officials collaborating with the FARC, dates, locales, etc, etc... In other words Chavez knows that he cannot deal with the charges and prefers to attribute them to an hostile country, even if he needs to invent that hostility.

The US bases in Colombia

That was the excuse for Chavez to try to turn the table around and put the spot light on Colombia. It certainly would work at first.

The reason why it could work is the that there is a knee jerk reaction in South America against the US. This reflex is understandable considering our past relations. However besides the Panama intervention to justifiably remove Noriega there has been really not much to complain from the US since the Carter years. We are talking now 35 years out of the 140 the US Empire has arguably existed.

But how can you expect Brazil's Lula and Chile's Bachelet, who personally suffered greatly in their earlier years of the consequences of US intervention in South America politics to remain cool when Colombia announced that the US base dismantled in Ecuador will come back as several small units in Colombia? It was easy for Chavez to focus the attention on that but it will be more difficult to keep it.

Why the bases? On a drug war logic it is certainly a good thing. After all now the Colombian army has demonstrated its strength and serious observers know that the Colombian military will not be there to serve coffee to US officials. Both sides benefit from their joint effort: the US on its war on drugs and Colombia on its war on terrorist FARC and ELN.

Interestingly the folks who are opposing that are not really using the sound argument that the US should start by putting order at home, punishing consumers first, before they go around bombing out drug traffickers who today are an easily renewable commodity. Folks prefer to play the anti US card.

It seems that in Colombia public opinion not only is backing the new bases, with the appropriate conditions, but also the tightening of relations with Venezuela. Because there is another logic here for the bases: Venezuela has become a very erratic regime, led by a violent man who has been demonstrated to support the FARC, and all sorts of other unsavory regimes. The Honduras open intervention was perhaps the last nail for Chavez Colombian coffin as it was clear how Chavez treats allies. Colombians are certainly not the folks to take up lightly mistreatment by Venezuelans, and even less by a vulgar military like Chavez when the Colombian ones express themselves so properly. That is why business guilds of Colombia told Uribe that they will find new markets because Colombia should not once again bow to Chavez. Something taken up by the Colombian Church and other sectors while some in the opposition are taking, in my opinion, the dangerous gamble of trying to patch up once again with Chavez.

Indeed, a lot of people do not understand that the reelection of Uribe has marked a permanent shift to the right in Colombia. The traditional Conservative Party has put itself behind Uribe as well as the right wing of the Liberal party. Colombia around Uribe has enjoyed a consensus sorely lacking for decades, coupled to a successful and durable economic growth and of course a verifiable pacification of the country. It seems that Uribe will not to commit the mistake of running for a third term. Placing at the helm yet another liberal right president such as Santos could usher another decade of stable government, and thus the possibility of the FARC finally negotiating a surrender in order to avoid a final wipe out.

Uribe is thus probably looking to the distant future and this is also an element that must be considered in his whirlwind tour of South America capitals.

Uribe's grand tour

Uribe has been spending a few hours in the following capitals, meeting all South American head of states and taking evenly sympathy or disapproval. Why is this significant even if on the surface Uribe might appear on the defensive?

First you must understand that Uribe is not discussing only the why of the bases in Colombia, a battle he knows very well he cannot win in today's environment. But he also knows that within two years there might be right wing victories in Chile, Uruguay, and maybe even Brazil, so Uribe is certainly playing for the long term, to better days and as the true statesman he is , Uribe is probably already working for his legacy and to ensure the success of his follower.

What Uribe is taking along is the dossier he has on Chavez, certainly the real reason of his stop over in hostile La Paz, to make sure Evo Morales knows what he is defending and the risks he is taking if he follows Chavez all the way through. Evo might anyway, he is too dependent on Chavez now, but Uribe will be able to say "I told you" and along the way strengthens the opposition to Evo without disrespecting him.

But that dossier of Chavez is also for the promoters of UNASUR, namely Brazil's Lula. UNASUR is mostly a Brazilian invention, something that would be a more effective OAS but without the US, a NATO of sorts where Brazil would occupy the center stage as the US occupies it in the NATO. In other words, UNASUR is the tool that Brazil counts on to become the king of the hill. Without Colombia UNASUR makes no sense. Uribe stop in Brasilia will be to tell Lula that unless he starts becoming more effective at controlling Chavez, unless UNASUR is a real protection instrument engaging for Colombia against he FARC, then Colombia will proceed with its next best option: a tight alliance with the US.

The threat is not empty. An increasingly beleaguered Democratic administration that is not finding its footing fast at home and outside might finally decide to cast its lot with Colombia as the only possible reliable ally with Mexico. Uribe is going to get its FTA even if it means distancing itself of its continenalt sector. Why? Only an FTA can free Colombia from its commercial ties with Venezuela and Ecuador, while at the same time making these two countries economical non entities. Barak Obama in fact seems to slowly understand this reality that he inherited. After all, the nice reception of Bush by Lula was more the one of a seller to his big customer, a way to show that Brazil was becoming a big player. Obama might be realizing this as he is drawing closer to Colombia, as the only way to avoid a fight with the inner cities that are his natural constituency: better give Colombia an FTA and help them on the drug war rather than doing at home what really needs to be done to stop drug consumption, such as putting to jail his leftist Hollywood friend or the black dealers of the ghetto. Real Politics at their crassest.

As for the first impression or Uribe's tour, it is clear that he has undone some of the Chavez damage. True, Evo did not budge and the dingbat at Buenos Aires is too stupid, too corrupt and too dependent on Chavez to even understand what is going on. But Brazil and Chile toned down. Brazil relative moderation after initial disapproval seems to indicate that Uribe's objective of telling Brazil that it needs to control Chavez if it wants UNASUR to succeed went through. We cannto expect Brazil to jeopradize its business in Venezuela for the sake of Colombia, but signs are promising that at least on FARC and drugs Brasilia might become less lenient with Chavez, remindign him, who knows, that after all Chavez did offer Venezuelan territory for Russian bases.

Next?

Things are so volatile already and Chavez is so mercurial lately that we can speculate from an incoming war with Venezuela to a patch up of things with an active role of UNASUR to end the FARC conflict. But there are two changes that seem to be taking place and to modify for the long term the way this chess game is played. It seems that Chavez this time means it, that he wants to wean himself from Colombia because he knows that the trade deficit in favor of Colombia will protect him less and less agaisnt the mounting evidence of his association with the FARC. Chavez is casting his lot, is jettisoning fast his democratic pretense, is cornered at home. He is about to make his final grab for final complete power Cuba style and 6 billion dollar purchases a year from Colombia is not going to help. Not to mention that once Chavez has installed the regime he has always wanted he will be forced to support the FARC more actively than what he does today, with all the risks this entails.

The second change mirrors the first one: in Colombia they have resigned themselves to a long Chavez tenure, and even if he falls tomorrow they visualize an unstable and unreliable Venezuela for at least a decade anyway. The consequence of Chavez will last until 2021, with him in power or not. Colombians have now the full dossier on the man and they fully know what he is able to do. But they also know that the Colombian economy has diversified, grown and solidified whereas the Venezuelan one is more dependent than ever on oil. Colombians now have the dangerous confidence of countries that know they can win wars, and easily, countries that know that time is on their side.

Let's hope that UNASUR and Brazil get the message and start bring Chavez down to heel before it is too late for us, his hostage victims.

Meanwhile let's not get into the easy gamesmanship to get against the bases or in favor: they are not going to solve anything in or out; and besides there are already plenty of US technician and military personnel in Colombia, a number that could be increased easily even if for political reasons Uribe withdrew the military bases. Even Obama chimed in to that effect, implying that the "bases" were not bases after all.

The US military bases or camps or spots are jsut an excuse. This is something else, probably a broad strategic move sped up when Zelaya was overthrown. The confrontation with the ALBA/Chavez has started, or rather the confrontation between representative democracy with occidental values and populist plebiscite driven regimes. That confrontation is unavoidable and the military bases are in fact a means of pressure to force countries to start choosing their side while damage can still be limited.

-The end-

Will the OAS cross the yellow line of shame?

Today the OAS is opening a meeting that risks transforming its irrelevance into opprobrium.

The OAS has long ceased to be a useful institution. Its last glimmer of utility came when it wrote the Inter-American Democratic Charter (IADC) and used it against Fujimori. Since then times have changed and the OAS has closed its eyes to human rights abuses in Venezuela, and questionable practices of the governments of Bolivia and Nicaragua.

Now in San Pedro de Sula we might be on the verge of seeing the IADC gutted of any signification as there is strong talk of accepting Cuba back into the OAS.

In English I can provide you with three links of general info. First, the editorial of the Washington Post which takes no punches on underlying how grave it would be to allow Cuba again, without conditions, into the OAS. As for the meeting opening, the challenges faced by Hillary Clinton as she lands in San Pedro de Sula. And from the Hill how Congress is starting to get concerned.

I agree with the Washington Post that the handshake of Obama with Chavez followed by nothing did embolden most Latin leaders to forge ahead and speed up the return of Cuba. Yet, the momentum gained is rather amazing. Is it a reflection on how the new US administration is seen as toothless as of the world crisis and its engagement in Iraq? Or, more charitably, is it because Latin leaders think that an evolving Cuba will reach the democratic shores faster from within the OAS?

To understand this it is important to know that most if not all Latin American leaders have a secret or even sub conscious admiration for Castro. Not for his regime necessarily but for the man since in our "tradition" of strong men he represents the epitome of success, the guy who has managed to remain in control of a country for the longest of times, possibly ensuring his transition long enough to see, so to speak, mausoleums build to his glory. In short, Fidel Castro has succeeded better than some notorious dictators such as Gomez, Francia or Porfirio Diaz. When you see Uribe scheming for what would be a disastrous third term for Colombia, you know that I might not be exaggerating at all.

As such friendly relations with Cuba have always been used by any Latin American government to protect itself somehow from its political left flank while allowing for a cheap point against the US as needed. This was very handy at times of economic troubles where attention on difficult negotiations with, say, the IMF, could be dissimulated by inviting Fidel to visit or protesting loudly the US embargo. As such since the 70ies Latin America has been the great enabler of Fidel, including Venezuela who renewed long ago relations with Cuba even though it was Venezuela's Betancourt that engineered the expulsion of Cuba in 1962.

Today, after the oil prices storm, the subsequent crash and the ability of Chavez to pervert democracy not only in Venezuela but in Bolivia, Nicaragua, Ecuador and possibly a couple more of countries in the next 2-3 years, defense of democracy is simply not as sexy as it used to be. Not that it was that hot ever, by the way, even from the US who started defending democratic values above everything only since Carter (even though this one was prompt in supporting Chavez later in life).

Today as the going threatens to get rough for a few countries we have a general support for the Castros who would have never wished such luck and who in addition have the luxury to say that they do not want to get into the OAS, but if they want Cuba in they would not be rude enough to refuse. Of course they want back in the OAS as it is a key condition to get money from the BID for example, now that Chavez checks are not as reliable.

Thus we have nostalgic fools of the left such as Lula or Bachelet supporting the return of Cuba, together with crass leftists like Chavez or Ortega, but also joined by people that should know better like Calderon, all under the now grotesque role of OAS secretary Insulza who booted out of a political future in Chile is trying to retain his OAS seat even if gutting the OAS of any value is the price to pay.

This is leaving the US to scramble for 12 out of 34 possible votes to avoid a return of Cuba. Who could be those responsible countries? Few, as Canada is not even to be relied on when Cuba is the talk. If the US decided to tighten the democratic screws it could line up at best Canada, Colombia, Peru, Trinidad, maybe an Island or two, maybe one Central American country.

I have no advice to give President Obama and Secretary Clinton, but at this stage they should cut their losses and walk away of the OAS who is not going to be of any help whatsoever in solving the real problems of the US, namely North Korea, Iran, Iraq, the crisis.

Just like Port of Spain was, San Pedro de Sula is yet another trap for the young administration. Obama did not fall into the trap in Trinidad though later inaction made this irrelevant. However in Honduras falling into the trap could be better for the long term interests of the US. The United States should not be afraid to ask for a vote on Cuba admission and lose it. But doing it, the United States should explain clearly why it votes against the return of Cuba and why the OAS is failing in its mission to preserve and promote democracy. And thus the US will confront the weak like Lula and Bachelet and even Calderon to the fact that they will publicly support a dictatorship. That is the best the US can do right now to stir the democratic feeling in Latin America, to create a revulsion among the complacent elites so that they react before it is too late and help elect worthy leaders.

No matter what the US does in Honduras it will hold the losing end. Might as well make the best of it and think long term. If things get ugly the US can even stop funding more than half the budget of the OAS and let Chavez pick up the tab. Let's see how that will work out for the OAS...

-The end-

Brazil's take over of Venezuela is starting, as previously reported here

I have been a little bit busy this week but I cannot resit a quick post to pat myself in the back. Commenting on an interview on Lula by Zakaria I wrote at the end:

...Venezuela is fast becoming a failed state while Brazil is threatening to become a world power. In a way a take over of Venezuela by Brazil would not be such a bad thing, you know.... I wonder how much of that subconscious thinking might have operated in Brazilian ruling class as they contributed to the demise of Venezuela (they will put the blame on Lula but too many went along this complacency toward Venezuela). Meanwhile woe is us in Venezuela because while Chavez squandered our possibly last historical opportunity Colombia and Brazil grew in strength. In a post Chavez Venezuela Bogota and Brasilia will fight over taking Venezuela under their area of influence.

Remember, ten years from now, you read it here first.

Now read what Miguel wrote yesterday about Chavez going hat in hand to ask Brazilian banks to bail him out.

Venezuela will get a loan from Brazil’s development bank Bndes in the amount of US$ 4.3 billion, guaranteed by Venezuela by fields from the Orinoco Oil Belt.

Even more clever for the Brazilians, the money will be used to finance projects (and pay debts!) being built by Brazilian companies in Venezuela and the first beneficiary will be Odebrecht, the Brazilian firm building subways systems around the country and which is owed a lot of money by the Chavez Government.

Right Miguel, you should read my blog with greater attention :) I am kidding of course about Miguel not reading. What I am not kidding about is that Chavez is mortgaging our future to Brazil and to Colombia. Maybe Colombia does not have an Odebrecht to weigh in but it is selling a lot of the ESSENTIAL food for Venezuelans, food we used to produce and do not produce anymore. As such Uribe holds Chavez by the balls, not to mention the content of certain laptops still not all public...... True, as some might argue Colombia could be left without the payment due, but I will still rather be a Colombian to whom money is owed than a Venezuelan looking at empty Mercal shelves.

See, we do not even have to wait for ten years to see it happening: right now, under our own eyes!

PS: Heck, and while I am patting myself on the back, let me also add that Elizabeth Burgos in Zeta said that Brazil and Colombia would split among themselves the left overs of Venezuela. She wrote that about 3 weeks ago. Sorry, no link available.

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Lula knows he screwed on Venezuela and Chavez

I was watching today an interview of Brazil's president Lula da Silva on CNN, conducted by Fareed Zakaria (1). The interview was very interesting. Lula has answers to everything and rather thoughtful answers (for example his thoughts about expanding the UN security membership and its role). He might be an union worker in origin but that has not stopped him from learning a lot along the way. However all his self assurance was sorely tested when Mr. Zakaria asked him on Chavez. The approximate transcript first, click on pics to enlarge (2).

Zakaria: You are regarded as a great symbol of democracy in the Americas [more flattering comments follow] And yet some people say that you have been quiet as Hugo Chavez has hollowed out and destroyed democracy in Venezuela. You have greeted him as a friend, you have not really criticized the complete reversal of democracy in Venezuela. Why not speak out about it if Brazil wants to take a greater role in the world? Would that not be a part of it, to stand for certain values?

Lula: [during the question it was fascinating to watch Lula's face: from dead serious he put up a laughing grimace without noise, something clearly designed to hide his real thoughts and trying to ridicule the question which coming from that kind of interviewer is simply not possible to do and demeans Lula more than anything he could do to demean Zakaria] Maybe we cannot agree with Venezuela democracy. But no one can say that there is no democracy in Venezuela. [some strange and irrelevant mumblings follow about him having less years than Chavez in office and that Chavez went through so many elections while he himself went through only two]

Zakaria: Wouldn't you like to have had the advantages he has when running with the opposition muzzled, his gangs out in the streets. This is not real democracy.

Lula: We have to respect the local cultures of each country. The political traditions of each country. The political cultures of each country. Brazil has made a lot of investments in Venezuela and I believe that the US needs to get closer to Venezuela. Why so? Because I think that it would be beneficial to the US and to Venezuela.

Zakaria: How we would do that? [reminders of Chavez insults to the US follow]

Lula: [he goes on with a lot of bullshit totally irrelevant to the previous questions. Then there is a talk about generosity] With an economy the size of Brazil we have to make gestures of generosity to our neighbors because otherwise they will have the right to think that Brazil is an imperialist power, that the US is an imperialist power, because there is development in our countries and there is underdevelopment in their countries. I believe the results that we have managed to achieve are good ones, I would say for Brazil, for Latin America and for the rest of the world.

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How can we possibly put a good spin on this section of the interview? Even Zakaria looked surprised, and more than once. After all, the idiocies of Chavez are simply public knowledge and glossing over them would have actually been better for Lula than to try to skip the questions outright as he did.

So this is my story to try to make sense of this rather pathetic moment. Let's start with the salient points.

First, of course, Lula might have learned a lot in his career but not as much as he should have on Venezuela. His demeaning comment on Political Culture (repeated, incredibly, three times) simply tell us that all that he knows about Venezuela comes from Chavez. He might have received accurate reports form his foreign office but clearly, he has been very selective about what he chose to use. And pray, do tell us, when was it Venezuelan political culture to insult the opposition from a position where this one cannot reply to you? This is so offensive that I rather stop now on this part.

Second, there is that mercenary aspect to him: he cites the Brazilian investments as an excuse; which is not and excuse, otherwise we could excuse the US and many other countries of a few crimes because, well, you know, they invested. And this is made even worse when unprompted he excuses himself about Brazilian imperialistic tendencies. Truly Chavez brought the worse in Lula and made him blabber.

And third there are clear escape attempts at not replying at all to Zakaria questions. At some point Lula must have realized that he did not convince Zakaria, and perhaps not even himself. This last picture on the right is a witness about some strange brief pauses taken by Lula then, with shifty, impatient looks, images that we do not get from Lula at any other point in the interview.

I am not going to detail why Lula is so wrong because not only the abuses of Chavez are public knowledge, but this blog is a whole narrative of those abuses and to top it off, the CIDH has just published last Friday a lengthy report where Chavez electoral abuses are detailed, a report by the way that Zakaria did not need to make his statement (3). I rather speculate on what is going on with Lula.

First, Lula comes from the hard left that got educated to reality with time. That is why he had to run three times before he was finally elected. As such he might never have managed to reconcile fully his lefty militant heart to what he knows is the reality that has brought him success and keeps him high in polls. He knows he has betrayed some of his youth tenets but he is not going back because he is smart enough to understand that this way is the one that does bring some success.

As such Lula has always looked at Chavez as the kind of leader he might have wanted to be if he had a smaller country to rule and more means. Federal Brazil does not have the easy riches of Venezuela. Brazil is such a world in itself that a Chavez like clown is simply not possible anymore there (Qadros might have been the last specimen of the sort and Brazilians might have learned their lesson for good then). It is simple quite possible that Lula lives vicariously through Chavez the leftist experience he will never live himself, blinded enough by Chavez charisma and showmanship to overlook the fascist and military tendencies of Chavez that someone like Lula should know better have having suffered for the lengthy Brazilian military regime (other leftists that suffered repression are not fooled by Chavez, for example Chile's Bachelet or Uruguay Vasquez).

But as I have already written in this blog Brazil is an Imperialist country by tradition and perhaps even by vocation (Bandeirantes anyone?). Lula might try to pretend it is not but he fools no one. However we cannot blame him much on him applying imperialism on Venezuela: after all Chavez is serving to him the country on a silver platter and why would not Brazil industrialists benefit from the Venezuelan piñata? If there is one that should be judged harshly by history, and hopefully by judges, on this matter it is Chavez, not Lula who after all behaves as the president of a great country, serving his country interests before he serves his own ones (well, in general at least).

Still, after this interview it should be extremely clear to anyone that Lula has helped Chavez as much as he could, that he has been an active accomplice in the destruction of Venezuelan democracy. In fact we could go as far as to say that Lula has only disdain for the Venezuelan people and that he thinks that Chavez is actually a redeemer that got a bum rap and thus deserved his help. As such when history books will be written Lula will be pointed as having some Venezuelan blood on his hand because at no point we can show a Lula berating Chavez for his abuses, even in private (read again that part where he thinks he has been achieving great things in Latin America!). In fact we can even think of occasions where some of his comments were perceived as indirect criticism of Chavez only to see Lula a few days later backpedal fast and embrace Chavez again. And let's not forget that Lula visited Chavez at least twice in important electoral times endorsing him.

The funny thing for me here is that Venezuela and Brazil are probably the two countries closer ethnically in Latin America, with a similar racial make up and mix, a similar way to conceive of life. And yet Venezuela is fast becoming a failed state while Brazil is threatening to become a world power. In a way a take over of Venezuela by Brazil would not be such a bad thing, you know.... I wonder how much of that subconscious thinking might have operated in Brazilian ruling class as they contributed to the demise of Venezuela (they will put the blame on Lula but too many went along this complacency toward Venezuela). Meanwhile woe is us in Venezuela because while Chavez squandered our possibly last historical opportunity Colombia and Brazil grew in strength. In a post Chavez Venezuela Bogota and Brasilia will fight over taking Venezuela under their area of influence.

Remember, ten years from now, you read it here first.

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1) I get the CNN from London bureau, not the direct one from Atlanta, ask my Cable company why.... Fareed Zakaria GPS. Thanks to my new Direct TV decoder that allows me to record on command and examine such an interview in detail. I shall use it on Chavez in the future!

2) I do not have the transcript, what I quote is what I lifted from replaying the interview. Since Lula spoke in Portuguese, CNN gave us a simultaneous translation, with the risks that this implies on finer points.

3) Not on line yet, sorry. I guess it will come up Monday. CIDH = IACHR, by the way.

-The end-

Lula tells Venezuelans how worhtless they are; Viña del Mar confirms it.

During the campaign for the eternal reelection of February 15 2009, at some event Lula declared that he was not keen on reelection but that if Venezuelan wanted it it was their right. Or something to that effect that people are free to chose what they want and that eternal reelection was not that bad. Heck k, even some people took that as a message that maybe Lula was considering getting access to a third term himself through some constitutional change.

Well, today there is a small ruckus in Venezuela press rooms as Lula this time in a more serious forum is stating point blank that more than two terms in office is simply bad for democracy, and we assume this would be true in Lula's mind in Brasilia, Washington, Harare or Caracas. Well, he said again that maybe Caracas was different but Brazil would be changing president even if Lula's ratings are above those of Chavez, that democracy was best served by true alternation. Do not be fooled by what he really meant even if he did not express it: Venezuelans are a stupid and silly people reelecting the same clown over and over while he keeps wrecking his country and giving juicy contracts to Brazilian companies. Lula could not possibly care less for Venezuelans.

You do not believe me? Read the roster of the "summit" being held in Chile, at Viña del Mar. A select group of progressive leaders is gathering to discuss ways to get out of the crisis that is besotting the world. Who is invited: Chile as the chair, the UK, Spain, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Norway with, hold tight, the US of A. They are going to attend the closing and summary of a think tank gathering for the previous days where intellectuals, politicians, economists, etc, associated with social democracy and democratic left gathered to offer proposals to the G20 summit coming soon.

As you can see it is a serious summit, with serious people, even if some of you might not agree with their ideas. And the meeting is the more serious that mickey mouse regimes not interested in dialogue, in global solutions or in real democracy offering real solutions for the people and not for their leaders, were not invited. So there was no Ecuador, or Bolivia or Nicaragua and best of all, no Chavez. In fact the Brazilian envoy said that other leftist regime ideas were to be respected which is a very diplomatic way to say "we need to work to solve the crisis and we have no time to put up with showmen coming over for temper tantrums; learn to behave and next time we might respect you enough to invite you over".

We, Venezuelans are a weak and miserable people and we are treated just as we deserve. We are the laughing stock of the world and our stupid leader still thinks that smiles when he places a purchase order are actual smiles of political support.

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Chavez defeat of the day

Maybe I am going to have to start a new feature to keep track of the increasing numbers of Chavez defeats on the foreign policy front. The news today is Lula visit to Colombia and its deep meaning about the position of Chavez in Latin America these days.

The picture above is of Lula, Uribe and Peru's Garcia with Shakira on the mic singing Colombia's national anthem. They were in Leticia, on the Colombian Amazon, signing agreements including their engagement to secure the Amazon basin. They also were there presiding some of Colombia Independence days events. A visibly emotive Lula even said a few verses. Lula spent two days in Colombia whereas he was in Venezuela for a very few hours, just to sign some business deal, probably cashing some of the money Chavez owed him.

You may draw your own conclusions, but there is one that is pretty clear: Uribe is now a Latin American leader, to the grief of a few I am sure.

-The end-

Two painful items

It looks like the pen drives and lap tops taken from the Reyes bombed camp contained real documents after all. Apparently Interpol is going to confirm any time soon that no tampering was done with these electronic files. The Wall Street Journal carries a damning summary of what was contained in there. You know what is about to hit the fan. The show is about to begin, take your seats.

Is Lula to Chavez what Thabo Mbeki is to Mugabe? Enablers of the world unite!

PS: thoughtful reader JVR sends me a link on how a hard drive from the Columbia disaster of 2003 was recovered with all its data. Obviously if a hard drive can survive a Shuttle crash, why not survive a jungle bombing? Oh, this is going to be so much fun!!!!!!

PS2: another paper, IBD, gets very clearly the WSJ message.

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