A way out for Venezuela: current conditions

The OAS resolution of yesterday is important on one point: the Venezuelan dictatorship of Maduro is finally named by its name. Only three countries out of 3 out 35 think that Venezuela is still a presentable regime.  Thus it is time to act. But how?

It was a debacle at the OAS

No need to go much on the actual show. Arreaza performance as the regime representative was, well, ridiculous. The money line was Almagro letting him know that since the Venezuelan National Assembly had refused to exit the regime then Maduro cannot do so.  Which I am sure went down real well at Miraflores Palace. The proof is that Maduro has announced that he will announce important decision on the OAS. I am, sure the OAS is shaking.

But beyond the headline, let's look at what the OAS resolution truly means.

Debacle at the OAS?

Today in Washington the OAS started one of its big regular meetings.  You know, those where the foreign secretaries come themselves to talk and vote on resolutions. Even Mike Pompeo was in attendance, forgetting about North Korea for a short while.

The need for our criollo Nuremberg

Since I wrote last night things have not been improving.  Today the release of more political prisoners have driven home two things.

Three tweets narrate the release of Gilber Caro, a Representative of Voluntad Popular whose parliamentary immunity was trampled when he was sent for a year and a half in jails of inhumane conditions.

Carta a Ramos Allup

Señor Ramos Allup

Ya es tiempo que usted se retire y le deje el puesto a otro. Si bien en el primer año de la nueva Asamblea Nacional usted pegó algunos éxitos de taquilla resulta al final que usted no logró nada concreto y, peor, manejó muy mal la renovación de dos rectoras del CNE. Ayer hemos pagado eso muy caro.

Pero la razón verdadera por la cual usted debe retirarse es que por tercera vez usted un culpable importante, sino principal, de una debacle de la oposición.

Random notes on what the hell is going on, TSJ included

I suppose that when I try to make sense out of today's Venezuela I should always start with the following opening statement:

Extraordinary corruption has eventually turned Venezuela into a narco-state. Those in charge, for lack of a better word, are so compromised that there is no way they can surrender power through elections or any other action because they know that jail, or worse, is in their future as soon as the dozens of body guards paid by the state are removed from around them.  This is a camarilla that cannot leave the country anymore, so entrenching at all costs is the word.  

If you do not understand the text above, then you understand nothing about Venezuela.

This being said let's try a few comments on the current situation.

Day 5 of dictatorship: the regime says we are a democracy again. We are laughing.

So what has happened after the high court flip-flop of the wee hours of last Friday?

Day 3 of dictatorship: nothing to see here, move along

Briefly because it is midnight.

Kalends of September for chavismo, or so it seems

The regime has made its business to turn into a fateful day the vast opposition rally planned for next Thursday September 1st. The regime has a lot to lose on that day, but it made sure that its losses would be greater than necessary. And, personally, at this point I do not see how the regime could rake any gain.

It all started when the opposition tired of waiting for a Recall Election date decided to mount a massive protest against Maduro's regime, that is, demanding his exit as soon as possible. Of course, the chosen way is to hold a Recall Election before January 10 2017. The opposition to Maduro has nothing to gain from any unconstitutional settlement of the political crisis: all polls give the opposition soaring numbers since last December stunning electoral victory. Besides, even if the opposition did not enjoy a 70+ against Maduro and wanted to do a stunt, how would it do that? The Venezuelan opposition has been deprived of arms, newspapers, TV, and even of its politicians as many are in jail.

So, are we invaded or not?

One maddening thing about being overseas is dependency on tweeter to try to follow what is really going on in Venezuela. Except for the honorable mention of El País in Spain the rest of the world has, understandably, more important matters to deal with than a suicidal asshole of a country. And yet even French TV, the all news channels that is, find time between the ridiculous "Nuit Debout" with their spoiled trade unions protests and Egyptian  mystery planes to cover recent Venezuelan events.

Time's up

UPDATED: unknown to me as I was typing this overseas, Maduro was in cadena announcing a new emergency decree rendering moot the National Assembly and annuling Recall Election efforts for all practical purposes. In short confirming all that I wrote below.
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I have the feeling that the fall of Dilma in Brazil is going to speed up the conclusion of the Venezuelan farce. For the Narko-Cubano-Colonial regime action is required before the Temer presidency gets a chance to settle in. Not that the odds are with Temer, but Raúl and Maduro simply cannot take the chance.

The plot sickens thickens (add some OAS salt to correct taste)

In brief. The National Assembly today did not hold its scheduled session for lack of quorum: nobody showed up. This is strange because opposition MUD representatives hold a majority large enough to seat on their own, quorum assured.

Maduro's gauntlet?

The thing is that the constitutional crisis/coup is in full swing and all sides needed to take stock and prepare the next move. So, as to not add more oil on the fire, nobody showed up and there was no legal battle on whether the N.A. session was duly cancelled.

What is going on is very simple and comes from many previous posts: the regime is hell bent on annulling the new assembly. To begin with it needs to fire enough MUD representatives so that the opposition loses its 2/3 supernumerary which could jeopardize the number 1 asset of the regime: 100% control over the judiciary branch directed through the high court, TSJ.  This TSJ is composed of assorted goons with a less than stellar career when not implied in previous crimes. This detail is important as we will see later.

Thundering Twittering Terror

So the OAS summit is about to start.  A lot of clouds are announced, then again nothing may happen. And then again the unexpected may take place. Should we care? I do not need to enter much into that as there is a perfectly good, perfectly complete, perfectly short piece that covers all that you need to know on the Panama gathering, In case you think it is relevant for the future.

Instead let's talk about Maduro's understanding of the situation. Inasmuch as we can even dare making an educated guess about the primary feeling that has taken possession of his psyche. Because I assume that Maduro at least had at some point the smarts of a courtier. That does not mean that he is intelligent, he is not. But at least he had the necessary wiles and instincts to rise inside the Cuban imperial court and the Chavez proconsul court to reach the title of viceroy of Venezuela, no small feat.

It is not truth or dare in Caracas, it is scream and dare

One has to wonder, and somehow admire, the chutzpah of Maduro promising to go all the way through his signature collection to bring them to Panama and humiliate Obama. That nearly magnificent obsession clogs everything else in the state news, even though the whole world already knows that most of those signatures in Venezuelan have been drawn under pressure, something that does not seem to register in chavismo. We are actually getting war reports: "we reached 6.2 millions signatures today", highlighting the exquisite love of chavismo for decimal points as if that detail made the numbers more trustworthy...

Beach, red, storms...........

The latest today is that Maduro found it to be a great idea to send squads of PSUV militants to the beaches of Venezuela, crowded for the Holy Week holidays, to ask scantily clad people to sign up...  I wonder whether there is any sense of ridicule left anywhere inside chavismo. Don't they realize that declaring the need to go to pester people at the beach is itself an admission that the signature drive has not been the success they hoped for?

For good measure Maduro also decided that March 9 (Obama's executive order date) should be declared from now on "anti imperialistic day" or something like that. I hope it is a paid holiday just in between Carnival and Easter week!  You know, those 5 weeks of lent can be long...

Preparing the OAS Panama summit, at Raul's good will

Now, before anyone says anything I am a great fan of Andres Oppenheimer from the Miami Herald whose columns and books on Latin America are a must read. But his latest OpEd piece has a je ne sais quoi off.

At first glance his argument is impeccable; Obama should use the next variety of meetings in the Americas to start a rapprochement with some of the countries in difficulty, mainly ailing Brazil (the biggie is OAS in Panama April 10) . Certainly since September 11 the US has been distracted from Latin America and others have step in to pick up the slack, namely China buying and pushing up the commodities market.

Irrelevant OAS stresses the bejesus out of Venezuela (and Cuba)

Chavez has spent 15 years, under the direction of Cuba who was excluded from the OAS by Venezuela's initiative, in finding ways to render the Organization of American States irrelevant. For this he supported the election of Insulza as its general secretary, a rare case of a president whose main task is to lower the institution it presides. To make sure there was no surprises for when the day to sustain his dictatorship come, Chavez started targeted programs to secure soft votes, that is, though generous money offerings to weak countries. Hence the ALBA and the archipelago of curious poverty that represent most of the anglo Caribbean.  Add to this countries like Argentina or Brazil who see in the OAS an additional tool to edge out the US influence and grab it for themselves. Thus you get a solid majority which today again acted, this time against Maria Corina Machado.  But it is a Pyrrhic victory, one that does not solve whatsoever Venezuela's image problem and actually worsens the image of the now severely discredited "leadership" of chavismo.

Brief comments on the OAS resolution

The lengthy and often postponed OAS debate on the situation of Venezuela gave birth to a shameful communique where only two countries saved their honor by putting comments down, the USA and Panama (although I understand that Canada did not approve but the tally of the votes does not appear).

Three conclusion: 1) the OAS is clearly useless 2) the regime scores a point and 3) the April 2013 strategy of Capriles and the MUD is exacting a heavy price on them.

The day Maduro became certifiable and tore his panama

Globalization for all but Venezuela

We must note that on March 5 2014 we were relieved that Chavez had gone for a year now and we got scared to our wits by seeing Maduro come totally unhinged.

For his commemoration ceremony he planned how so tactfully a military parade in front of foreign dignitaries. He rubbed his state medal on his chest quite often. But it did not help.

See, only Raul Castro, the murderer from Cuba, Desi Bouterse, the narco from Suriname and poor Evo came, that I know of, plus the vice from Argentina.  Truly, not the most stellar gathering after the grandeur of one yer ago.

Why the Venezuelan opposition is alone internationally

The little scene that happened yesterday at the OAS is turning out to be more interesting than what you may think. Note: if you are a fervent opposition leader stop reading now as you will probably do not like what comes next.

CELAC-anthus

Raul at the summit?

Sometimes stuff is still born, no matter how desperately the parents of the creature try to breathe life in it.  We saw such another sad spectacle this week-end in Caracas where, minus Lula, Chavez alone could not manage to give life to that silliness that was "born" a couple of years ago in Cancun: the CELAC or in English, the Confederation of Latin American and Caribbean States.

All was not wasted for Chavez, he got an ego boost, he repeated N+1 times that he was cured, he put up a show for the 30% of us that are congenitally unable to see any fault in him.  This being said the rest of Venezuela made fun of the whole thing, when not outraged not only at the expense but at the inconvenience for Caracas to hold such an event.  After all, Chavez went to the extent to cancel Baseball Venezuelan League games and give public workers the day off Friday in a desperate effort to unclog somewhat the streets of Caracas.  That did not stop a pot banging event of some resonance to take place in Caracas Friday at 8 PM.  Certainly he did not fool any foreign visitor because, you know, they get reports from the embassies including Consuls shot in the crime wave to scarcity of food and the hours lost in a car for any errand.