Logarithmic hyperinflation

So I got my latest condominium bill.  Needless to say that I was flabbergasted.  I ran a graph of this year payments.

In blue, the amount paid monthly over the year on base 100 as of September.
The red square was an extra payment for some stuff that broke down.

To lighten up the graph I decided to consider as 100 this September payment and thus the other months are a percentage of what I paid this month.

But of course this is not clear. Since I am a scientist I immediately saw the logarithmic scale representation potential on what is an exponential hyperinflation.  Here below.

Now you can see by yourself how fast inflation goes. You can see better than the previous graph the real payment for February (reddish square) which was the normal condo plus an extra payment for elevator water pump repair (I think it was). Not that it changes anything, just for full disclosure.

And yet the monthly fold increase is not quite clear from this graph. So I added an exponential trend line.

So there you see it, condo is multiplied 10 fold every 3 to 4 months. Though that rate was lower early in the year (4 month) and is speeding up now (every month and a half). I tremble as to what will await me for the 3 months end of the year.

So now you can feel my pain, at ground zero of hyperinflation.

The Venezuelan opposition reaches the deep end (2): the Albán effect

Note: I was going to write a brainy post of unrequested advice as to what the opposition should do in the coming weeks. But fortunately I procrastinated some and then there was a whirlwind of events that would have made that projected post nearly useless. The part 1 is still valid. Let's see how long does part 2 stands the test of time.
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The events that have shaken the political table these last two weeks are the following:

The Venezuelan opposition reaches the deep end: part 1

There is a new crisis of "to vote or not to vote". And the opposition is falling into the same self destructive behaviors, opening the way for the final political push of chavismo. Which does not mean that Maduro will last, the economy is tanking. What I am talking about is a new self destruction episode of the opposition leaving no other option than a chavista replacing Maduro. Maybe.

Yet this time around the reasons are not the same, nor are the stakes as they happened in the last three elections.  The worse of the current mess is that we are already tearing each other over an election that not only has not been convoked but may never be.  Let's review the situation in this first installment, letting for the next one a possible opposition strategy that shall not happen.

The shoe dropeth

As I was expecting the decree about the new minimum wage was officially published today when it should have been published last week, at the latest. This way no one could make adequate preparation and many lost their jobs, many a store closed. And as I am typing it is not clear yet whether and how will the regime effectively subsidize the bulk of the new wages for 3 months.

But if you thought that going 35 times up minimal wage and hence putting the whole country on minimal wage was not bad enough, we got a few more choice items for you.

Apocalypse Saturday

There is no need to go into details of the latest measures of Maduro. Their objective is simple: take over the private sector without using the N word. That is, we make them go bankrupt so they give themselves to the regime without having to go through tedious nationalizations.  Il suffisait d'y penser.

You need, truly need, to understand this clearly to avoid any confusion.

Apocalypse tomorrow

It has been almost a month I have posted last.  I think it may be the longest time ever in between posts.  I guess tweeting as taken over.  I can tweet anytime, like in some medical waiting room that I am visiting a little bit too much these days.  And trust me, in Venezuela there is nothing as

depressing, after looking for food, as looking for medical help.

But it is Sunday, the night of the "reconversion monetaria" and all is still. Caracas died a few hours ago as banks web sites went down to adjust for the "new" currency tomorrow.  By 2 PM almost everyone open a Sunday had closed. No grocery stores open after 2 PM, even the convenience stores normally open until 6 PM on Sundays. And even if some joints were to dare to risk their earnings tonight, why would you want to go out and drink? Better to pass out at home as many must have done, witness the amount of people buying booze yesterday.

A way out for Venezuela: the post Duque election effect

The time has come to discuss what could be done about the Venezuelan narko kleptokracy. And the election of Ivan Duque in Colombia today does affect the possible outcomes.

At the Colombian border, with the symbolic barrier, from left to right: ex president Pastrana,
with hat; ex president Uribe, hat in hand;  Marta Lucia Ramirez, the new vice president of
Colombia and on the Venezuelan side Maria Corina Machado.  The A+ list
of the democratic Latin American right. Piñera of Chile is in thought on that picture. May 14.

A way out for Venezuela: it will not be coming from the opposition

At least not as it stands right now.

The disarray of the opposition is simply breathtaking.  And if you read Twitter varied time lines, you will find out that some inside the opposition spend time attacking each other in more virulent ways than they ever attacked chavismo. Though I suspect that chavismo having long stopped reading their own incendiary Twitter replies these oppo radicals had to turn their anger elsewhere. But I digress.

Two oppositions

A way out for Venezuela: the regime options

What can the regime do at this point?

Since its sole wish is to remain in power to avoid jail, they have clear objectives. Unfortunately for them the strategy to reach them has to change almost daily as events seem to escape any sort of control.  Thus the regime sticks to three main lines and lets circumstances dictate adjustments.

A way out for Venezuela: current conditions

The OAS resolution of yesterday is important on one point: the Venezuelan dictatorship of Maduro is finally named by its name. Only three countries out of 3 out 35 think that Venezuela is still a presentable regime.  Thus it is time to act. But how?

Hurriedly to illegality

One tries to take a couple days off for a "procedure" and one comes back to yet a new spectacle of the absurd.

Amazing mess, how sweet you are

This will be short and sweet. It may be a couple of days before I can post again.

The results are in, the fraud is scandalous, again

So there are the official results so far:

Maduro 5,823,728
Falcon 1,820,522
Bertucci 925,042
Quijada 36,614

Participation, CNE RECOGNIZED, 46%

Participation from other sources range from a 32% for Reuters to a 17% for Meganalisis

Other data:
*the lowest electoral participation in a presidential election in 30 years, the lowest one was 56% in 2000. Note: as far as I know all previous presidential elections since 1958 have been above 56%. Venezuelan "democracy" at its worst showing.
*Falcon and Bertucci are not going to recognize the result, discovering suddenly that there was fraud.

Oh well....  Where should I start?

The end is near

And it cannot be otherwise.

Voting nowhere fast

I guess I need to write about the electoral campaign. Years ago this blog was flooded with entries on candidates, polls, statistics and predictions more accurate than wrong. But now the voting system is utterly rigged and for all that we know the percentile difference between Maduro and Falcon is already a given. Maduro will win by AT LEAST 15%. The only question is whether he will dare to have a higher percentile than Chavez top in 2006. My guess is that he will not resist the temptation.

Speaking of entries on candidates.  It is a sad spectacle to see how burned Falcon is. Oh!, not a surprise at all, but really, the guy has been found out and yet he persists in pretending that he is fooling us, that his defeat will be because of the opposition abstention, etc, etc, but never any self awareness that actually people cannot vote for him. Period.

Something shifted somewhere under someone's feet

Three things happened today that tells us something is brewing inside chavismo.

My important/favorite is defense minister Padrino announcing  that he is against armed colectivos.  You know, those colectivos which are nothing else but paramilitary thugs wearing red shirts and working for the regime. Chavismo version of storm troopers.

The reason was certainly the damaging video out of this weekend maneuvers that went viral and that I tweeted below (I am more active on Twitter than on Blog, the more so that it is easier now to make micro posts in Twitter)

A paramilitary group this week end in Caracas. It does not matter wether you underatand Spanish: the theatrics of violence, hate, intimidation and abuse are crystal clear.
Venezuela as the novel totalitarian state. https://t.co/XTLzRJqEsl

— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) February 26, 2018

The worst refugee crisis in the Western Hemisphere

This is the real reason, the only reason that in the end will push for an intervention.
Opinion | Latin-America’s worst-ever refugee crisis: Venezuelans https://t.co/uTaKJrvOa4

— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) February 26, 2018

And if nothing is done it may turn out to be the worst humanitarian crisis in the Western Hemisphere since La Conquista.

Dark options

I am writing this as I am listening to Górecki #3 "Symphony of Sorrowful Songs". You have been warned. (1)

Venezuela dialogue bust and its chain reaction

As expected the "dialogue" between the narco dictatorship and the civil opposition went nowhere.  Yesterday the chair, Dominican Republic president, said euphemistically that talks were adjourned for the time being, letting ooze slightly his disappointment at not having been able to help the regime get what it so sorely wanted. On the other hand the chosen mediator of the regime, former Spanish premier Zapatero, could not hide its bitterness at his failures, and revealed his profound bias by threatening the opposition for not signing down.  At least we gained something, Zapatero is now out of any negotiation after his words yesterday.

There cannot be dialogue in the dialogue

Today we had one more episode of the painful soap: dialogue in Santo Domingo.  Apparently there was, or there was not, a draft, or a pre-draft, agreement, or an agreement to make an agreement someday.  Who knows? Probably even the people in Santo Domingo are not quite certain of what the hell they are doing there.

To make things crystal clear to readers I am just going to point out two things.