Fortunately for Lilian Tintori, her enemies are mean but stupid

As a follow up of Friday's entry.

Saturday Lilian Tintori, wife of jailed opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez, tried to leave the country on a well announced and scheduled tour that included meetings with Macron, May, Merkel, and Rajoy, that I know of. So, instead of letting her go and within the hour announce that she fled the country, they confiscated her passport and forbade her to leave the country.

Week 1 of the dictatorship: protests are mounting in spite of brutal repression

UPDATED THROUGH THE DAY (Now complete)

11:40

Today the opposition is taken the streets again, and this time around there is national move for that. The regime replies in the only way it knows, unable to update its modus operandi. For example they blocked early all access to Caracas, and closed 16 subway stations for good measure. That way protest marchers will not be able to make it to Caracas or to the rallying points. That workers cannot do so is of no concern, even though Caracas will look like a dead city today.

But the regime is cornered so here anything is good to stop the opposition.

Actually, is a split in Venezuelan opposition unavoidable?

I was musing about the opposition divisions becoming more intractable. And they are.

What makes me think the opposition alliance, MUD, will divide is paradoxically, in a way, an editorial of Rafael Poleo in his magazine Zeta where he attacks Diego Arria (not available on line). Whether Poleo is right in his assessment is irrelevant to our discussion. What is relevant is his vehemence against Diego Arria and what he supposedly represents.

In praise of the Trump-Tintori meeting

The meeting between Leopoldo Lopez wife, Lilian Tintori and the US president Donald Trump has not found favor among many people, many of them that should have known better. Thus the need for this brief post that I am sure will please no one.

Venezuela should allow Leopoldo Lopez, a political prisoner & husband of @liliantintori (just met w/ @marcorubio) out of prison immediately. pic.twitter.com/bt8Xhdo7al

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 15, 2017

Let's start with an artistic comment of the shot.

A slow fuse major embarrassment at Foreign Policy

There is an unwritten rule when dealing about information on Venezuela and chavismo: when you try to be objective you always end up with egg on your face. Respected magazine Foreign Policy is feeling the pinch and risks much discredit for its poor managing of a situation coming from a hatchet job text pretending to set the record straight on Leopoldo Lopez.

Baduelismus

A strange surprise came yesterday. General Baduel, former savior of Chavez (2002), former defense minister of Chavez, one of his personal own first political prisoners has been released from jail. Sure enough he is blocked at home, but he is out of military jail.

That he served most of his jail sentence on trumped up charges (who is not corrupt inside chavismo?) and thus was "released" to complete the rest of his sentence at home is a mere detail. What is important here is that the regime has dared to release who was a seen as one of Chavez very own political prisoners.

De genocidas y huelgas de hambre

Pienso que ya está bien, que ya Leopoldo y Daniel y los otros presos políticos tienen que terminar una huelga de hambre que logró lo poco que podría lograr. Si es que logró algo en verdad, que esta por verse.

Vamos a hablar claro. Estamos frente a un gobierno que ya se puede calificar de genocida; y cuidado que a través de este blog siempre me he rehusado a usar una palabra tan monstruosa, tan cargada de peso histórico. Es casi una dignificación perversa de atribuir esta palabra al patético elenco criminal que hoy nos desgobierna.

Pero este gobierno ha evolucionado hacia eso, hacia una mentalidad donde no es pecado para ellos eliminar físicamente los que estorban, o sencillamente eliminar los que no gustan.

Empezaron con la lista de Tascon, un apartheid moderno que todavía el mundo civilizado no ha condenado debidamente, a su gran deshonra. Esa lista del odio no solamente se sigue usando después de 10 años pero ha sido constantemente perfeccionada a través de los listados de las Misiones bolivarianas y flujos electorales a nivel de comunas y gremios. De allí se dividió el país nítidamente entre un ellos y nosotros, entre patriotas y apátridas.

Luego empezaron los crímenes. El primer crimen fue el de dejar morir a Brito por su reclamo de tierras. Pero también ha sido un crimen dejar salir una generación de profesionales al exilio, un crimen contra el país, un asesinato al futuro. Como fue un crimen permitir que el trafico de droga se convierta en rutina, que convierta al país en un narcoestado desencadenado la sangría en los barrios que nos dan una matazón con niveles de país en guerra. Todos, todos eso crímenes son imputables a Hugo Chávez pero los pagarán otros.

Pero el ultimo paso hacia el genocidio es la propia indiferencia a la muerte de los inocentes, cuando los poderosos tienen otros menesteres que atender y no se pueden preocupar en buscar siquiera alguna excusa. No es que Hugo Chávez se preocupase en buscar excusas para sus crímenes, pero la repartición de dinero acallaba la conciencia de muchos, incluyendo muchos opositores.

Venezuela ha llegado a este punto revelador porque ahora faltan las medicinas y el gobierno no permite que lleguen.  Ya hay enfermedades que son criticas y el gobierno prefiere que se mueran todos en vez de permitir que se abra un resquicio para que por lo menos algunos puedan importar lo que puedan. Eso se niega porque seria admitir que 15 años de gestión han sido errados, que las arcas están vacías. Pero los genocidas son todos, sin excepción, seres cegados por el orgullo y no se abrirán compuertas. Los jerarcas pueden salir del país a hacer lo que quieran para su salud pero nosotros venezolanos todos estamos condenados a la indiferencia absoluta a nuestras necesidades por parte del gobierno, muriendo en una falsa igualdad, sin que le duela a nadie. Solo se salvarán los que el gobierna decida que se salven.

Llamemos esto "genocidio del siglo XXI".

En toda franqueza ¿alguien en verdad espera que el gobierna evitará que se mueran los huelguistas de hambre? Lo digo con toda responsabilidad, estoy seguro que muchos en el gobierno desean la muerte de Leopoldo y Daniel. No les importa las consecuencias.  Por esto le pido a todos los que están en huelga de hambre que por favor desistan, que busquen otros medios de lucha, que con genocidas no hay chantaje que funcione.

Homage to the Venezuelan student (Repost)

I thought that with all the troubles these days in Venezuela I should return to blogging by repeating the post of February 15, 2014. One year later and were are we at?

Fake temporizing in Venezuela

This week end caught us with two pieces of good news. Well, sort of. Two political prisoners got better jail terms, that is, home arrest for a while. One is a police chief of 2002 that the regime has tried to scapegoat as the lone guilty party of the deaths of April 2002, Ivan Simonovis. The other one was an activist from the protest earlier this year, Sairam Rivas.

Should we read something into this? I am afraid not.

To begin with, those two cases had become a problem for the regime's international image. Not that it cares much at this point, but with an expected trip of Maduro at the UN in the coming days, a mere gesture could only help.

Notes on Voluntad Popular, under siege

Just a short post to remind readers that the only political party that is truly creative these days in Venezuela is Voluntad Popular. Not that other politicians are not creative, such as Maria Corina Machado, but her failure at creating a solid party handicaps her a lot.  For example today Voluntad Popular promoted a march to defend gay rights in Venezuela, to demand the liberation of one of its activists, Rosmit Mantilla,  unjustly arrested on false charges. The event seems to have been small attendance by current oppo standards. I did not show up since it was my day to take care of the S.O.. But that is not the point.

Day 5: the Venezuelan spring seeks organization

UPDATED

OK, so my title is a little bit wishful thinking at this time, but we are on our way there: anyone following Twitter accounts from Venezuela will realize that today, at day 5 of the first official protest of February 12 in Caracas that there are more than half a dozen flash points across the country. Of variable sizes for sure but what is remarkable is that they persist. What is more remarkable is that even as I chose February 12 at the start, we should not forget that these protests started a few days earlier in Tachira and Merida before spreading across the country: this is not, it bears repeating, a caprice from Caracas Eastern suburbs inhabitants, this is the expression of a national malaise, like it or not.

Following the revolution from Podunk

San Felipe?

I live in San Felipe, Yaracuy state, probably the most apathetic state of Venezuela outside Delta Amacuro. that is, there are protests everywhere in Venezuela but in San Felipe outside of a few dozens Wednesday, there is peace and quiet, the lone colleges working as if nothing. This has always been the case, no matter what party held the state house, no matter what fire burned in Caracas. In fact, the only time I saw a true stirring was the "cacerolazos" that followed the April 2013 election. For such a thing to happen in Yaracuy you needed truly a fed up spirit of high proportion. Which goes to tell you what a wasted chance Capriles had then, when he refused to do what it took to claim his prize. But I digress.


The point here is that I cannot participate, I can only watch, and as such this blog is of limited value unless you appreciate that someone filters for you the news, trying to separate the hysteria from the relevant.

Protests in Venezuela

Later in past week there has been a series of student protests in Tachira and Merida mainly. I have not written on them because 1) I had no time and 2) more importantly I lack accurate information now that Globovision is gone and does not report much on such things. Or down reports on them. Outside of the pages of El Universal and El Nacional there is little you can now find, except by following the twitters of some politicians (though there is plenty of pictures going around without one being able to verify anything).

Whatever the case may be I suspect that these protest may end up being counter productive as the regime has been cracking down severely on them with the sole objective to stare down any possible protest of those tiered to stand in line for corn flour. Not that I believe they will riot, they stand for hours but they get it for nearly free so I doubt there is any political awakening coming that way just yet.  But February has always been a good month for political trouble in Venezuela and Lopez and others are calling for a first test of strength on February 12. We shall see.

Getting ready for 2014 (6): 2014 in Venezuela

So, now that I have dressed a dismal portrait of the country's perspectives for 2014 what else can I add?

A disabling enabling law

Certainly, that the Maduro's enabling law was presented yesterday officially does not mean that it will be approved and that even if it is approved a predictable Armageddon will follow. The outrage yesterday is that when a regime decides to roll the dice with such a law it means that we are in dire straits, that its ability to run the country is on the skids.

Will that change this week?

There is a difference between this enabling law and the ones passed before, or even the attempt at constitutional change sought in 2007. These previous attempts were at least supported by the clear preference of the country for Chavez, for whatever misguided love his voters had for him. Also their scope was less ambitious in that Chavez sought to control specifics (or all in 2007 but at least it was through a constitutional reform submitted to popular vote).  What we got yesterday was the declared intention of the regime to control all of the economic aspects of the country and, through them, our private lives. Fascism or Communism, your choice, there are both of these elements in the brief proposal submitted yesterday.

Venezuela's Dog Days of August, as in barking

This summer has been nothing of the quiet vacation time, the regime pushing up its attacks while the country is supposedly anesthetized by the summer break. Well, it is always summer here, let's call it the school break. And yet for all its effort the regime is not reaching its goals. Not that the opposition is reaching theirs, mind you. What is at work here is the relentless crisis that seems to be reshuffling the deck constantly. Thus maybe it is time to do a short summary at where we stand at.

Peruvian exile for Rosales

That Peru was going to grant political asylum to Manuel Rosales is no surprise. For simple practical reasons Colombia is not a good choice as it is too close for comfort: a Venezuelan death squad in conjunction with FARC help can take care of you fast. Brazil does not speak English or Spanish. Argentina is only too willing to sell off anyone. Chile is too far, and too boring?, even if the wine is good. Ecuador too small and too chavista these days. Bolivia is, well, a godforsaken but beautiful country that you need to be Bolivian to love, besides the fact that Evo Morales would ship you back to Venezuela post haste. Thus Peru is really the only choice today, with Mexico perhaps. Besides it is a booming country which has been so far moderately affected by the word crisis and which is taking much better steps to avoid further damage than what Venezuela is doing.

But there is more to Peru. First it has become really a land of asylum since democracy returned. After all, after the long dark years of Odria and Velasco, followed by the dynamic but equally condemnable Fujimorazo, it seems that they have learned best their lesson and can smell a tyrant before anyone else. For them it was not difficult to perceive fast that whatever charges were levied against Rosales, the real reason for his prosecution was political.

Of course chavismo is upset and recalled its ambassador and again accuse Peru of all sorts of crimes against International Law. Chavismo goes even to the ridicule of calling upon the Interpol after Chavez attacked it mercilessly after Colombia had it examine incriminating FARC computers. Chavismo also forgets conveniently that under Fujimori dozens of murderous conspiring coup mongers military of 1992 where granted asylum in Peru. Way more dangerous criminals than Rosales.

There was a time where our local dictators were just happy to see their opposition flee the coop and remain outside of the country. But under Chavez things are different: he wants revenge as he cannot accept that anyone can beat him electorally, or even disagrees with him. All must be punished; exile is simply too light a sentence on them. One wonders if death penalty is not something that Chavez is secretly caressing in his future projects. Legal death penalty I mean, as the surreptitious death penalty is already in place in Venezuela.

But such type of actions are counterproductive and betray a real weakness within chavismo where the elimination of opponents is the only way they can sleep soundly at night. Thus it is heartening to read such pieces as Duncan Currie for NRO where he describes how resistance is growing in Venezuela against the budding "legal" dictatorship that is being installed. Diego Arria tells it like it is, as I have already reported, even though I do not agree with his conclusion on the now legendary Obama-Chavez encounter.

Certainly the coverage of NRO is refreshing when one compares it to the BBC coverage of the Rosales asylum grant, an article that could come straight out of pro-Chavez Venezuelanalysis or Aporrea in its partiality, where the BBC does not blink from writing such inanities as "He is facing multi-million-dollar corruption charges relating to a previous term as governor of Zulia state. [...] Government supporters accuse him of taking part in a short-lived coup against Mr Chavez in April 2002."

I mean it might be fair to write such things if you were writing on Venezuela's corruption in general, including the Cabello and Chacon brothers, but the not so veiled intent of that BBC piece is simply to make look Rosales bad and Chavez ambassador recall adequate. Fortunately, and curiously, the BBC Mundo piece on this subject is completely different, and a world away in objectivity, which raises the interesting question as to whether the two BBC correspondents even know each other, or have visited the same country. For one thing the BBC Mundo does not burden itself with the chavista ritornello of April 2002, the universal excuse to everything that only weak minded folks use today. Why is it that the BBC coverage on Venezuela in English is consistently so inconsistent, so poorly researched, even so out of tune with real chavista arguments and propaganda? I mean, even the Guardian arguably to the left of BBC is more crtical of Chavez!

-The end-

Francisco Rodriguez, part 2

Still too busy to write anything meaningful, and oh boy!, how many things to write about!

Meanwhile I leave you with the second part of the Tal Cual interview of Francico Rodriguez (first part preceding post). Shorter and less interesting but still worth reading if anything to examine the evolution of the rational minds that supported at first the chavista experiment and who know have turned among its fiercest critics. By subscription only so I lifted it here in Spanish for your reading pleasure. Note that FR states clearly that a democratic transition in Venezuela will be difficult because of the quantity of crimes and larceny committed under chavismo. Quote:

I believe with reason that soon we are going to be faced with matters referring to human political rights violations, problems of fraud and corruption that society will demand punishment from and that will make difficult a stable transition.

There, he said it, the chavista orgy will result in years of political instability and violence! Unfortunately this blogger shares this forecast, the more so that the opposition is totally oblivious of what is coming, at least judging from its local election campaign...

-The end-

Ex Yaracuy Governor Lapi escapes

I was reporting last Friday that the jail riot in San Felipe could have endangered the life of Lapi, ex governor of Yaracuy. Well, he must have felt the heat because he decided to escape last night. Or so we are told....

See, the situation is not that clear. To begin with Lapi could have escaped long ago. Opportunities for escape have abounded in the last year since he was arrested. But he did not escape. In fact he was making quite an impact as the arrest he suffered under the pretense of corruption after one year was not viable: in one year it has been impossible for the prosecutor to sustain the accusation in such a way that a trial could finally start. Note: the accusations had already been made with Lapi free and this one did not leave the country even after his home had been searched more than once for evidence. The evidence of illegal procedures against Lapi from the prosecution is filling up quite a catalogue on how perverse justice has become in Venezuela, as a judicial system designed only to prosecute political ennemies of chavismo.

In other words, it was a political montage and Lapi played along until apparently his life became endangered. Why? Because current governor, Gimenez, incompetent, corrupt, slimy character and alleged substance abuser has been sinking in the polls and thus, in perfect thug fashion, has decided to arrest whomever could rise against him and challenge him for an election. First he defected astonishingly fast from PODEMOS to avoid chavistas to be the ones signing up for a Recall Election. It is Convergencia, Lapi party who will finally be the one calling for a Recall Election, if they can get 20% of Yaracuy voters to sign, a humongous IF after the Tascon List story. Lapi understood that the game had changed. From being a potential enemy of Chavez Gimenez had managed to neutralize the MVR and now Lapi was the only real threat to Gimenez. Being in jail and with Gimenez a threatened thug in power, Lapi's life suddenly lost any value.

Escape, we hope, was what happened last night. But who knows if Lapi was not "escaped" and his body appearing in some ditch any time soon. All is possible in Yaracuy. You think I might be exaggerating? Listen to the words of the vice minister for security El Assaimi, calling Lapi an "individuo", the term used against any hard core murderer searched by police. We are talking here of an ex governor who until today had played by all the pseudo rules of the game, not a mass murderer who will kill and main on his wake. The discredit campaign against Lapi is going full swing by people not even worthy of cleaning Lapi's toilets.

"hemos logrado el cierre del estado para la recaptura de este individuo. Tengo conocimiento de que ya a nivel nacional se han producido los contactos para evitar la salida de este individuo"

Tarek El Aissami words this morning on VTV, not to journalists that could have asked all the pertinent questions. I rest my case.

Oh! And if you still think that Lapi is just some bandit I will remind you that he was sitting at the negotiation table sponsored by the Carter Center and the OAS in 2003, that he did not want to sign on the agreement (he was proven right since) , that he was one of the most articulate opponents of Chavez and that in more than one opportunity he stood up to him effectively. Lapi is a political prisoner whose life is in danger. ¡Duela a quien le duela!

By the way, any word on such political prosecution from the OAS and the Carter Center?

-The end-