So, chavo/madurismo has all in its hands (1). No Venezuelan government in history had so many levers of power in its hands. All the formal state institutions are now controlled by the regime except a handful of state houses and town halls. But those are restricted on their means, heavily supervised and thus almost insignificant in their potential actions. What makes this one more of a dictatorship than any past one is the complete control on press and media, and the economic control that no government in Venezuela ever had. That these controls broke the country is another matter, though it happened because of these controls.
Showing posts with label decomposition venezuela. Show all posts
Showing posts with label decomposition venezuela. Show all posts
Monday, January 11, 2021
Saturday, December 28, 2019
2019 in review part 3: the dollar bubble
The economy of Venezuela keeps tanking. And yet some papers are talking "improvement". This is bullshit and only reflects on the superficiality of Venezuelan coverage, still, after all of these years. Then again if you limit yourself to Caracas you could be fooled, the more so that traveling inside the country is becoming more and more difficult.
Why? Two reasons. Caracas is the showcase of the regime, and this one has relented and allowed public use of the US dollar (other currencies come to nought in spite of the regime attempts at favoring Euros).
Why? Two reasons. Caracas is the showcase of the regime, and this one has relented and allowed public use of the US dollar (other currencies come to nought in spite of the regime attempts at favoring Euros).
Tuesday, January 29, 2019
Pushing the nuclear button
That is it, the nuclear option has been activated!
On January 6 I was writing
On January 6 I was writing
"...The regime will HAVE TO dissolve the NA because this one has the nuclear option. Already since 2015 the NA has warned the world that lending money to Maduro was at their own risks of never recovering it since the NA not having voted on new debt this one is not valid. Now it gets worse, since Maduro is not the recognized president, his signature will have no validity for any act. ANY."The time has come. But note that it is not the National Assembly that has pushed it, since it does not have ways to enforce it. It is the USA that has pushed it today.
Tuesday, August 28, 2018
Apocalypse Saturday
There is no need to go into details of the latest measures of Maduro. Their objective is simple: take over the private sector without using the N word. That is, we make them go bankrupt so they give themselves to the regime without having to go through tedious nationalizations. Il suffisait d'y penser.
You need, truly need, to understand this clearly to avoid any confusion.
You need, truly need, to understand this clearly to avoid any confusion.
Friday, June 08, 2018
A way out for Venezuela: current conditions
The OAS resolution of yesterday is important on one point: the Venezuelan dictatorship of Maduro is finally named by its name. Only three countries out of 3 out 35 think that Venezuela is still a presentable regime. Thus it is time to act. But how?
Saturday, May 05, 2018
May betrayals
This week there are only two news worthy commenting on Venezuela. The campaign itself is not worth a comment, though the first bit is more than campaign related.
Andres Oppenheimer is a long established and respect journalist/Op-Ed writer at the Miami Herald. When he speaks about Latin America his batting average is, well, let's say 90%. I am not measuring details here, but the general flow of politics in Latin America. One of his rare misses is chavismo in its earlier days. He was not fooled but he was among those who expected that the usages of power and administration would tame Chavez enough to avoid an utter mess and eventually have him leave power by reasonable means. He has made more than amends since that, become one of the first true coherent critics of Chavez. But today, at least on Venezuela, he hit a home run. Do read that piece which is going to explain better what is going in Venezuela right now than, well, at least 90% of the other ones you may come across.
Don't be fooled: Henri Falcon is the No. 1 traitor to the cause of democracy in Venezuela. See this: https://t.co/j7PdJ063ij @miamiherald pic.twitter.com/vkoo6YbzNQ— Andres Oppenheimer (@oppenheimera) May 4, 2018
Andres Oppenheimer is a long established and respect journalist/Op-Ed writer at the Miami Herald. When he speaks about Latin America his batting average is, well, let's say 90%. I am not measuring details here, but the general flow of politics in Latin America. One of his rare misses is chavismo in its earlier days. He was not fooled but he was among those who expected that the usages of power and administration would tame Chavez enough to avoid an utter mess and eventually have him leave power by reasonable means. He has made more than amends since that, become one of the first true coherent critics of Chavez. But today, at least on Venezuela, he hit a home run. Do read that piece which is going to explain better what is going in Venezuela right now than, well, at least 90% of the other ones you may come across.
Friday, April 20, 2018
Venezuela is officially a basket case
It is hard to overstate the importance of the communique of US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Today he made it official that the situation of Venezuela is dire, that there is no way it can get help as long as Maduro and Co. are in charge, but that there is a will to help massively if the conditions are right. Let's go by parts.
The attendees
The following countries were represented at the meeting: Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, France, Germany, Guatemala, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Of course, those are the usual suspects but this time we have JAPAN. I mean, the potential of the Venezuelan default, of its unstoppable drop in oil production and of its potential millions of economic refugees make this a world crisis. Note that China (and even less Russia) do not participate in such kind of meetings since having so many skeletons in its closet it stays clear from any closet elsewhere. Never mind that Chinese are not known internationally for their generosity...
The reason
The attendees
The following countries were represented at the meeting: Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, France, Germany, Guatemala, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Of course, those are the usual suspects but this time we have JAPAN. I mean, the potential of the Venezuelan default, of its unstoppable drop in oil production and of its potential millions of economic refugees make this a world crisis. Note that China (and even less Russia) do not participate in such kind of meetings since having so many skeletons in its closet it stays clear from any closet elsewhere. Never mind that Chinese are not known internationally for their generosity...
The reason
Wednesday, January 31, 2018
Let's buy an election
In Venezuela elections have lost any meaning.
The regime now manufactures the votes it needs to win whatever it needs to win. And now, courtesy of hyperinflation, it can also print money at will to throw at people. That whatever it throws at them is losing half its value within a month is a mere detail. But the beauty of it all is that people that receive those crumbs need also to be duly registered with address on voting lists. Thus, in case printing both votes and money is not enough, you can also scare them into voting for you by visiting them on election day, say, at noon with a dry knock at the door and a "you have not voted yet; come on, let's go; we are taking you there". "Carnet de la Patria" is indeed a wonderful tool of control. Who knew it?
So today we are going to examine all what you can get from Carnet de La Patria by election time.
The regime now manufactures the votes it needs to win whatever it needs to win. And now, courtesy of hyperinflation, it can also print money at will to throw at people. That whatever it throws at them is losing half its value within a month is a mere detail. But the beauty of it all is that people that receive those crumbs need also to be duly registered with address on voting lists. Thus, in case printing both votes and money is not enough, you can also scare them into voting for you by visiting them on election day, say, at noon with a dry knock at the door and a "you have not voted yet; come on, let's go; we are taking you there". "Carnet de la Patria" is indeed a wonderful tool of control. Who knew it?
So today we are going to examine all what you can get from Carnet de La Patria by election time.
Tuesday, October 24, 2017
The day Ramos Allup drove the stake at the heart of the MUD
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| The July 16th vote, annulled today |
Today Accion Democratica (AD) secretary Henry Ramos Allup (HRA) decided to have his 4 elected governors swear in front of the unconstitutional constitutional assembly (AC) and thus within a single hour he 1) legitimizes the AC 2) voids years of opposition (MUD) efforts 3) wrecks its unity and 4) creates an image overseas that there is no need to worry about Venezuela anymore, either it is a democracy after all, or the opposition is not worthy of rescue so let them deal with their own mess.
How did we come upon that political horror scene?
Back to early July 2017.
Wednesday, August 17, 2016
Thursday, February 04, 2016
Mille e tre
Se sia brutta, se sia bella
I was in shock today going to my local grocery store after ten days out of the country. I was not expecting any improvement in the scarcity crisis but I was not expecting such clear degradation within a week. After all, the last week in January is the one where we are supposed to reopen business in full after the month and a half closing for the holidays. The least one would hope is that returning products would compensate for disappearing ones, for a few days, until all goes down the drain, say, late February. But it looks that wee will not have that luxury.
Madamina, il catalogo e' questo
I did not have time to look in details, first day at work, but that was I saw, or did not: lots of holes in all shelves. There was no pasta, not even the expensive imported Italian. No dish washing detergent. No cereal whatsoever, not even some disgusting sugary concoction still available for kids. In fact, Coke had replaced cereal in its shelves. No tuna, even though it has gone a lot in price. Etc...
un catalogo egli è che [Lorenzo, not da Ponte] fatt'io
I was in shock today going to my local grocery store after ten days out of the country. I was not expecting any improvement in the scarcity crisis but I was not expecting such clear degradation within a week. After all, the last week in January is the one where we are supposed to reopen business in full after the month and a half closing for the holidays. The least one would hope is that returning products would compensate for disappearing ones, for a few days, until all goes down the drain, say, late February. But it looks that wee will not have that luxury.Madamina, il catalogo e' questo
I did not have time to look in details, first day at work, but that was I saw, or did not: lots of holes in all shelves. There was no pasta, not even the expensive imported Italian. No dish washing detergent. No cereal whatsoever, not even some disgusting sugary concoction still available for kids. In fact, Coke had replaced cereal in its shelves. No tuna, even though it has gone a lot in price. Etc...
un catalogo egli è che [Lorenzo, not da Ponte] fatt'io
Saturday, January 23, 2016
Emergency decree is down. We may be the better for it
A little bit busy these days so I will be fast.
The regime tried to force through an "economic emergency decree" which was a mere diktat to make communism a reality in 60 days. You could read it all here, before most pundits tired to think about it, or worse, to pretend that there was some redeeming value somewhere. Usually pundits from brainy places like Forbes who can only think about a return on an investment that they were foolish enough to give to a country whose bloggers were active and announcing disaster since 2003. But I digress.
The regime tried to force through an "economic emergency decree" which was a mere diktat to make communism a reality in 60 days. You could read it all here, before most pundits tired to think about it, or worse, to pretend that there was some redeeming value somewhere. Usually pundits from brainy places like Forbes who can only think about a return on an investment that they were foolish enough to give to a country whose bloggers were active and announcing disaster since 2003. But I digress.
Sunday, November 08, 2015
Tourism in Venezuela: at your own risk
So I was away for a few days of beach, sand and surf. Not quite.
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| Take out the water and it is pretty much like this |
Monday, August 24, 2015
Will it hold?
It seems that creating an unjustified "state of emergency" at the border with Colombia has accelerated talk of regime "change". We have Miguel, or a nice article at the FT (subscription) by Daniel Lansberg or a dire "self-coup" from Oppenheimer at the Miami Herald. Readers of this blog should not be surprised as I have expressed often my doubts at the elections on December 6 would be actually held, or when describing how the country was collapsing steadily.
Rather than going into the macro thing covered extensively elsewhere, let me go first into the micro stuff.
Rather than going into the macro thing covered extensively elsewhere, let me go first into the micro stuff.
Monday, August 10, 2015
A guide to Venezuela eateries around the world
The Venezuelan diaspora(4%? population so far) has had an effect around the world: there are now dozens of Venezuelan food restaurants in most major cities of the "west" where Venezuelans do emigrate. I got this in the mail, a comprehensive list made by Andrew Richard and Daniela Cadena. Though In Spanish it is easy to find your way around for your own city. I include the maps for Europe and the US where most readers are. But Australia and South America are well represented while Canada lists Toronto and Montreal and many Central America countries do have Venezuelan joints.
So look to see if your place shows up and go for it. The places listed have a link.
So look to see if your place shows up and go for it. The places listed have a link.
Thursday, May 14, 2015
300
I am not referring to the title of a rather trashy movie purposely showing enhanced muscular bodies fighting it out with alleged Persians in dreadful drag. I am referring to a trashy banana republic that is unable to keep its economy inside the mere decency bounds where its citizens can hope to keep some of the value of their work. If they have any.
The US dollar has finally reached in the parallel/black market the 300 mile post {official rate is still the unbelievable 6.3 but nobody but the corrupt military can have access to it, of course}. Since I am out of the country in a place of bounty and mental partial recovery (because worrying sick that nothing happens to the S.O., to work, to relatives and to what not in no particular order as peace cannot be found even away) I have no time to go into the minutiae. I will just remind you that on February 25 I was writing about the bicentennial bolivar so on your own you can assess by yourself the effectiveness of Maduro's economic policies through March and April to restore trust and confidence in the economy of Venezuela.
But was amazes me further, even this far away, is the stupidity of the regime in admitting almost unwillingly that their policies have failed truly miserably. That is they have announced this week that the official dollarization of the economy has started. Since the regime is bankrupt and since they cannot even buy cars for their public administration routine, well, they decided to allow Ford motor corporation to start operating again selling cars in US dollars INSIDE Venezuela. How people are going to get highly expensive dollars to buy them I cannot figure out nor I am in a mind set to figure out from afar. And it ain't the point. The point is that the regime has started allowing for the sale of big ticket items in currency of the most reviled empire, the one for which a month ago they were still trying to collect gazillions of fraudulent signatures to bring to Panama to shame Obama.
The point is that the regime is accepting that they have reached the end of the road.
And the unraveling may be faster than expected. Already the Ford Trade Union wants to get paid in USD... Note that trade unions in Venezuela are particularly corrupt, but again, I digress...
The US dollar has finally reached in the parallel/black market the 300 mile post {official rate is still the unbelievable 6.3 but nobody but the corrupt military can have access to it, of course}. Since I am out of the country in a place of bounty and mental partial recovery (because worrying sick that nothing happens to the S.O., to work, to relatives and to what not in no particular order as peace cannot be found even away) I have no time to go into the minutiae. I will just remind you that on February 25 I was writing about the bicentennial bolivar so on your own you can assess by yourself the effectiveness of Maduro's economic policies through March and April to restore trust and confidence in the economy of Venezuela.
But was amazes me further, even this far away, is the stupidity of the regime in admitting almost unwillingly that their policies have failed truly miserably. That is they have announced this week that the official dollarization of the economy has started. Since the regime is bankrupt and since they cannot even buy cars for their public administration routine, well, they decided to allow Ford motor corporation to start operating again selling cars in US dollars INSIDE Venezuela. How people are going to get highly expensive dollars to buy them I cannot figure out nor I am in a mind set to figure out from afar. And it ain't the point. The point is that the regime has started allowing for the sale of big ticket items in currency of the most reviled empire, the one for which a month ago they were still trying to collect gazillions of fraudulent signatures to bring to Panama to shame Obama.
The point is that the regime is accepting that they have reached the end of the road.
And the unraveling may be faster than expected. Already the Ford Trade Union wants to get paid in USD... Note that trade unions in Venezuela are particularly corrupt, but again, I digress...
Thursday, March 05, 2015
Crashing
The free fall of the currency continues in Venezuela. On February 25 the black market value crossed the psychological line at 200. Today on March 5 we have reached 283:
That is a 10 Bs depreciation every day since February 25, 1 dollar a day at the official 6,3 exchange rate which has become a fiction since last year.
There is no way around it: hyperinflation is here. January is reported to be 10%. The government has stopped SIMADI. There is no word from CENCOEX and SICAD. In other words we do not know for sure whether Dollars are still being exchanged (a little bit still do, some particulars on occasion let us know that a small portion of their dollar debt has finally been approved for payment, never more than 10% of their total debt).
Draw your won conclusions. Mine is that the promised financial collapse predicted for April may have already started,
There is no way around it: hyperinflation is here. January is reported to be 10%. The government has stopped SIMADI. There is no word from CENCOEX and SICAD. In other words we do not know for sure whether Dollars are still being exchanged (a little bit still do, some particulars on occasion let us know that a small portion of their dollar debt has finally been approved for payment, never more than 10% of their total debt).
Draw your won conclusions. Mine is that the promised financial collapse predicted for April may have already started,
Wednesday, February 18, 2015
Why we are flat broke and in an nonviable system
To say that we are flat broke requires no explanation. All the indicators, from inflation to black market currency, from crash in importations to crash in oil prices, are all well known, vox populi if you wish. Equally well known the daunting corruption of the last decade and the wasted money in buying foreign sympathies.
Thus there is no point to waste my and your time in rehashing the reasons why we are out of cash. Only the brain washed chavista would dare to argue that. But there is a lesser known fact, or rather less studied fact which is the societal changes in the last decade and a half which makes it more difficult for Venezuela to recover, even if a new creative and honest management were to be swept into office. I have made a graph to try to drive my point in.
Thus there is no point to waste my and your time in rehashing the reasons why we are out of cash. Only the brain washed chavista would dare to argue that. But there is a lesser known fact, or rather less studied fact which is the societal changes in the last decade and a half which makes it more difficult for Venezuela to recover, even if a new creative and honest management were to be swept into office. I have made a graph to try to drive my point in.
Sunday, January 25, 2015
Looking for Maduristan
The speech of Maduro last Tuesday left my numbed. All observers, even the regime, agree that Venezuela is today facing a deep, devastating economic crisis. And once again no serious action, not even serious punctual initiatives are taken. The regime is adrift, mined by internal struggles, bereft of the faintest clue as to what to do. And to top it all, after announcing crisis, economic war, sabotage, Maduro flies off, AGAIN, for the burial of the Saudi king when he could have dispatched there his useless vice president. The more so that the Saudi regime did not lend him any money a few days ago.
In recent posts I had mentioned some partial measures that would have improved somewhat the current situation. Not solved it, but improved it enough so as to give the regime more leverage to negotiate the real stuff. Of course these observations may or may not be worthy and other people advance as many. But the point was to stress that even this late in game there were things the regime could o and should do. And did not once again. I could see it, anyone with half a brain could see it. But the regime refuses to see it.
Instead the regime clung desperately to:
In recent posts I had mentioned some partial measures that would have improved somewhat the current situation. Not solved it, but improved it enough so as to give the regime more leverage to negotiate the real stuff. Of course these observations may or may not be worthy and other people advance as many. But the point was to stress that even this late in game there were things the regime could o and should do. And did not once again. I could see it, anyone with half a brain could see it. But the regime refuses to see it.
Instead the regime clung desperately to:
Friday, January 16, 2015
The fiscal problem in Venezuela
These days Maduro is flying around the world as a beheaded chicken. Why? He has no cash, no economy, and his only hope for political survival is to have oil go back to 80 USD a barrel. Hat in hand, default threats in hand, he is a sorry sight. But 80 is not going to happen; and even if it were to happen it would not be enough.
I may want to digress as much as I want on a productivity problem in Venezuela, but there is a fiscal problem that looms even larger. Readers of this blog must remember that it has been quite a while we have started to discuss that the crazed currency problem is not been addressed as it should. Devaluations come late, incomplete and without a plan to avoid a new one. Budget deficits kept happily expanding as the regime needed more and more cash to buy voters that asked more and more for their vote. And now that the oil prices have collapsed we are about to consider eating our pets. But there are some solutions that could go a long way to stabilize the country and allow it to negotiate better surrendering terms with the IMF, WB or China (1).
I may want to digress as much as I want on a productivity problem in Venezuela, but there is a fiscal problem that looms even larger. Readers of this blog must remember that it has been quite a while we have started to discuss that the crazed currency problem is not been addressed as it should. Devaluations come late, incomplete and without a plan to avoid a new one. Budget deficits kept happily expanding as the regime needed more and more cash to buy voters that asked more and more for their vote. And now that the oil prices have collapsed we are about to consider eating our pets. But there are some solutions that could go a long way to stabilize the country and allow it to negotiate better surrendering terms with the IMF, WB or China (1).
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