Maduro charmed at Sharm El-Sheikh

The big discussion today at least for those interested in Venezuela is the handshake and hallway chit chat that Maduro had with France's Macron yesterday at the COP 27 being held in Egypt.  Besides the nauseous images, at least for yours truly, it is necessary to try to figure out what is really going on.

First, what the hell was Maduro doing at Sharm El-Sheikh? He could go there because he did not risk to be detained. Hopefully his two airbus will not be forced to land in a country where there is no dictator like Egypt's Al Sisi. And yes, Maduro went with two big CO2 producing airplanes to Egypt whereas normal head of states go there in a single small plane or, god forbid, fly commercial. The COP 27 is set to deal with climate change and environment. Maduro blamed capitalism in his speech conveniently forgetting to mention that Venezuela has been a major producer of oil for capitalism, under Chavez in particular. He also forgot to mention the considerable environmental damage that the wrecked state oil company PDVSA has done under his tenure, in particular. And never mind the destruction of Venezuela's share of Amazonia due to savage gold prospection, directed by the Venezuelan army in particular.

But I digress, back to the handshake. It seems that there was a part of improvisation and part of manipulation in that fortuitous (?) encounter. From one of the videos I saw it seemed clear that the president of Guinea Bissau was sort of directing Macron towards Maduro. Guinea Bissau is one of the stopping points for drug trafficking between Venezuela and Europe. Just saying. So they met and talked for about one minute. Not to be accused of cheap anti Maduro I will give you the pro regime feed of Telesur:

#COP27 | Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro and France's President Emmanuel Macron hold a dialogue at the 27th United Nations Climate Summit in Egypt. pic.twitter.com/XLHKOODxMq

— teleSUR English (@telesurenglish) November 7, 2022

Now the question is why Macron was so "friendly". Before I go on let me reassure everyone reading this, mostly if there is by happenstance a chavista: the profound distaste of Macron (or almost any western leader) towards Maduro has not changed. In fact it is probably worse than ever now that Maduro is trying to gain leverage with the little bit of oil Venezuela could produce soon.  Blackmail by any other name. Thus what we witnessed there is real politik at its worst, just like Biden visiting the journalist slayer meat processer Mohammed ben Salman (little good it did him but well...)

The Ukraine war happened; energy transition cannot be done in a day; Russia is to be punished; oil and gas must be found somewhere. Even though Venezuela is no condition to double its meager oil output in a year, it is still necessary to ingratiate yourself with the Venezuelan regime since the boycott of Russia will go on for as long as Putin will hold. And lo and behold, the French surely must know about the maneuvering of Chevron to recoup its lost investment, all this supported by the Biden administration willing to trade prisoners with Maduro.  Macron had to run before France's oil giant Total is locked out of a possible reopening of Venezuela. By the way, Total has also a lot of investment to recoup in Venezuela.

So that explains why Macron allowed himself or was forced to be seen with Maduro. I will also remind folks that the Maduro regime was very abusive a year ago with the French embassy in Caracas, cutting off for weeks water and electricity. But that humiliation seems to have been forgotten. Now, about the consequences.

Macron has started getting flack from French press, after years of saying that Maduro is a criminal (Maduro is still a criminal, a hand shake cannot cure this, it just dirties the other hand).  Of course, ever the chavista hard core supporter Jean Luc Melenchon went with his own gleeful tweet saying that oil made people [Macron] polite.  Macron just trashed one of the main political points against the extreme left Melenchon which was his inability to condemn human rights abuse in Venezuela.

But the bad press of Macron really does not register much in France. After all it did not make it in the nightly news that I eagerly awaited yesterday. Only today some comments, not favorable, started appearing though l'Opinion thinks that it was a trap set for Macron who dealt with the best it could.. No, the worse of the whole fiasco is that Maduro got for almost free what he so craved for: recognition, some form of legitimation. That the French president shakes hands with a criminal undoes years of work of US presidents, British prime ministers, German chancellors, etc.

The fact of the matter is that Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed everything causing among other things a panic rush for oil survival [rather than telling the truth to the people about why we must suffer a cold winter at home this year: 1940 heroism is not fashionable anymore]. The big game is barely getting started and for all that we know if given cover we might even see Maduro abandon Putin! Chavismo is venal enough for that if the price is right. Then again Maduro and Putin may be laughing their heads off at Biden and Maduro. 

To end this distasteful moment in a sourer note, there is another reason besides oil why Biden and Macron and soon others, are to talk with Maduro. This one has apparently won his fight with the Venezuelan opposition which is more divided than ever.  They all coalesced to support Guaido against Maduro 3 years ago. From the start the regime through corruption and violence has managed to divide the opposition to the point that now it offers a sickening panorama to observers. Not only many spend more time attacking Guaido than Maduro, but the opposition looks unable to prepare for upcoming presidential elections that on paper it should win. It is simply dumbfounding seen from DC or Paris.  

There may be a vote in a year and yet the opposition is unable to come up with a primary system to pick a unity candidate. We even have the sorry sight of more and more once upon a time believed strong opposition figures meekly calling for the end of sanctions against the higher ups in the regime.  And Biden, Macron et al. should get cold this winter to help such a bunch of incompetents?  I cannot bring myself to blame them.

____________________________

added later, further hunting trophies for Maduro

And finally, here's exchange with @antoniocostaps.

For all of of Maduro's charm offensive, he missed an opportunity to talk up Venezuelan oil when the Portuguese prime minister complained about high energy prices.

"Visit whenever you want. We have lots of Portuguese," he says. pic.twitter.com/xnTIPkMcRU

— Joshua Goodman (@APjoshgoodman) November 8, 2022

The Portuguese Prime minister with Maduro telling him to visit "'cause we have a lot of Portuguese in Venezuela". Classy....

And next with John Kerry who apparently forgot that his country has a 15million$ reward for bringing in Maduro. Though admittedly Kerry does not seem as cheerful as Macron or Costa seemed to have been.

PS/ gets better, State announced that Maduro crashed a meeting where Kerry was participating. It seems more like in line for Maduro: the only people that agree to meet with him are those receiving a stipend in oil from Venezuela.

Maduro: you stole my coke? I get a free Airbus from you!

Always in the shop.....

After writing my post this afternoon on chavismo divisions events precipitated a little and I am back at the key board. The question to resolve tonight is why did Maduro not attend the UN general assembly? This is not an idle question because a few days ago the man made a temper tantrum as to the US allegedly not allowing him to fly over Puerto Rico, or denying visas to his entourage, things proven wrong since.

The official version came in tonight in a cadena where Maduro surprised us with two things. First, he did not go to the UN because "they" were preparing offenses against him (that he will reveal when convenient). They being Otto Reich, Roger Noriega and Luis Posada Carriles, two passé out of jobs US operators and a near dead anti Castro warrior, none of them, if you ask me, able to do much against Maduro while in New York. The best way to establish that is that the new Iranian president had no problem going around town to make his speech today and he is a way bigger threat to the Western World than Maduro is. Then again that he is not taken as a threat may be what truly obfuscated Maduro.....

Brinkmanship and fatherland: will Maduro charge against students tomorrow?

One thing quite remarkable, in a perverse way, is that since we are told that Maduro has assumed power last December, no major decision has been taken by the regime, outside of a devaluation that came without any de rigueur measures to try to make the best of it. If it is clear that the regime is practicing some form of macroeconomic adjustment while trying to hide it, and thus we know little of its details, less of its scope while on any regards it is not working. The reason behind that secrecy is that the power struggle to replace Chavez is far from resolved so no one among his heirs wants to be seen as responsible from the bad news even though by not taking charge or attempting some form of coherence they are making things worse.

And thus violence seems the last option for the regime.

From a breeze to a storm for Maduro

UPDATED. The pace of events against Maduro has sped up through the week. From being annoyed by his preparation trip to the UN assembly and China it has become a badly reviewed trip top China, a dismal fiasco at the UN and now the questions about his birth have been whipped into a froth. There is open comment around that Maduro days are numbered as the army may be asking him to resign, not as a coup but because he was illegally elected president of Venezuela. And he has only his own idiocy to blame though the trigger may have been the narco activities of the Venezuelan state.

Let's recap some.

Nicolas Maduro becomes the new Venezuelan Foreign Minister

This is quite a piece of news, of the astounding sort. For me, the shock is the incredible realization that Nicolas Maduro, a general failure in life has managed to reach two of the highest offices in the country strictly on his servility merits to El Supremo, a.k.a. Hugo Chavez. But also, as a strange relief of sorts, we are left to admire how a totalitarian regime sets itself in place.

Nicolas Maduro

There is really nothing positive to write about him. He is a failed union leader, from the Caracas subway system if memory serves me well. He never did anything smart in his life, and since the press got him as a source of news in 1998, there is nothing I can point that he did that showed creativity, originality or even hard work. He gained weight and got known for his escapades to visit his guru in India, first class ticket of course, at tax payer expense one may presume since he never bothered showing the receipts and even for an assemblyman paycheck, first class tickets to India is quite a bundle.

However he is a semi gifted opportunist and in a political movement full of nullities carried by Chavez own charisma (plus the general management of Cuban advisers) that was a big advantage. He understood very, very early that the way to go was to accept anything that Chavez will do or order. He was handicapped at first because he comes from labor, from the civilian sector that Chavez wanted to destroy the most at the start of his rule. It took Chavez quite a while to trust Maduro. To gain the trust Maduro did several things. One was to live maritally with Cilia Flores, a talibanic pasionara of limited intellect but vociferating abilities and overly dyed red hair. She also was one of the few lawyers that volunteered to help Chavez in 1992. Reports of their trips to the US for shopping sprees, kids on tag, have been numerous.

The second thing Maduro did was to choose wisely his revolutionary career. I suppose that we can give him credit for his self knowledge on his limited managerial skills. That would explain his choice of a parliamentary career, never trying to go elsewhere. Not for him to exert in running for governor, mayor or indicating a wish to work in the executive branch. Maduro knew that for someone lazy, with little interest in day to day management, a seat at the newly formed national assembly was the way to go, in particular with a regime that primed the executive more and more. A sinecure so to speak.

The third thing Maduro did was to organize the “civilian” group within chavismo. In this meaning, “civilian group” meant organizing non military folks that were willing to be as devoted to Chavez, no questions asked, as the military that Chavez so obviously favored. Which admittedly was not much hard work either as all were only too willing to imitate Maduro. Leadership by example if you please. He kept gaining weight.

But Maduro always failed to shine, failed to reach higher positions. This started to change some when he sat patiently at the negotiating table in 2003 to nail the conditions for a recall election. We know what happened, but at least Chavez grateful that his delegates took the heat for him started rewarding them. Maduro abilities for stone walling (due to his poor intellect contrary to what people might believe) were certainly handy for an increasingly authoritarian regime who did not want to discuss any parcel of power.

Maduro started moving up and for the last year of the assembly he became the speaker of the house. By then of course the national assembly had become a redoubt of chavismo where the main objective was to stall the remaining opposition, something that Maduro had shown interest for and some ability in doing. In all fairness under the baton of Maduro things did function better in the assembly in that the opposition was less able to start discussion on law projects as a parliament is supposed to do. Chavez appreciated the lowered noise from the National Assembly and the passing of several controversial laws that one had to pinch one's nose to vote for. Maduro surely noted who did pinch his or her own nose and those ones did not get the nod to seek a reelection.

Of course after the assembly became monochromatic in 2005 Maduro was confirmed as speaker and speedily made the National Assembly into the Notary Public of the executive, a place where law projects are sent to be speedily voted, no questions asked. Maduro was now a star of the regime, always starved for people who do as told, without any discussion.

Nicolas Maduro Foreign Minister?

I mean, how can such a non-dialogue person, someone that cannot even speak proper Spanish, someone that probably knows little geography, less history and has no obvious ability in understanding complex international issues be named Foreign Minister?

Well, again his only known qualities: stonewalling and straight face when saying utter nonsense.

It seems that the latest excursion of Chavez has brought some lessons home. With the semi death of Castro (and his imminent death anytime soon no matter what) Chavez has decided to stop any pretense and play his hand on the foreign stage. What this means for Venezuela I reserve for a future post, limiting myself to sate the obvious, that the December election are more compromised than ever, that the international project of Chavez not only cannot contemplate ever losing power, but that the opposition must be shown as not being able to get even a 20% of the vote, the real meaning of the “10 millones por el buche” as we can now fully understand. “Unanimity” of the Venezuelan people is a must for the trials to come, even if such unanimity must be gained on abstention and gross electoral cheating..

The thing is that Chavez has cast his lot once and for all. He is bidding for Castro’s mantle, he is bidding for the leadership of the anti US world crusade, he has declared open support for all regimes severely to totally lacking in democratic value and he must himself degrade the embers of his own democracy to show his new allies his sincerity. The days of Mr. Nice, of trying to pretend to negotiate treaties and stuff are over. He does not need a foreign minister anymore: he needs a parrot like Perez Roque in Cuba, someone that will say the darnedest things with a straight face and limit himself to repeat them as often as needed. He needs someone who will justify what is about to happen in Venezuela without batting an eye, without opening himself to any shred of discussion. Chavez needs a messenger that can only read the script and is absolutely unable to take any weird initiative.

Maduro will be perfect: the anti foreign secretary, the anti negotiator.

The comic moment

But as usual, we, of the peanut gallery, are rewarded with telling moments.

I cannot conceive of the speaker of any real great democratic parliament relinquishing what is the second highest office in any country (when not the highest) with the glee that Maduro did today. In democratic countries, reaching the leadership of the parliament is the crowning of a career, it is the second most important position after the prime minister or the president, it is the one that maybe has the densest net of contacts, or pork barrel appropriations, of grateful subjects. You leave such a position because you become vice president, prime minister, president, governor of your bigger state, or something like that. Foreign Minister is a step down for you who even control indirectly the workings of the foreign committee of YOUR parliament! No treaty or agreement will be signed without you, no ambassador can be named or received without your knowledge and agreement, no foreign potentate will visit your country without paying respects, if anything by chatting with you a few minutes at some state dinner. And all presidents and prime ministers will at some point fear you when you threaten them with the schedule of the parliamentary debate. Only your electors can run you away: the president can do little against you.

That Maduro leaves this seat so easily means that either Chavez is in big trouble and needs his help or because the chair of the National Assembly is obviously now a totally boring and ceremonial position. After you look at the career of Maduro above, only the second explanation can make sense. If anyone still thought that the monochromatic National Assembly of Venezuela had any license, they needed only to look at the joy of Maduro leaving his job to be set straight. Today will not be counted as the end of Venezuelan democracy (this boat as sailed long ago) but it certainly will be considered as one of the most symbolic moments of its demise.

The presidential-bis Venezuelan campaign started strong, real strong

Well, Capriles words a couple of hours ago had such an effect on Maduro that the guy felt compelled to reply on the spot, something that Chavez rarely did, and when he did was to dismiss the other side without much of a response  His replies came later, in repeat cadenas, using them to do more than just respond, attempting to preempt the counter reply.

Last week campaign roundup: a summary and final prediction

The official campaign may have ended Thursday night but the regime has been blithely breaking the law and keeps campaigning all the way until today, on the excuse of commemorating the April 2002 coup. The electoral umpire? The CNE sees nothing wrong....  Which forced Capriles to go a press conference tonight that sounded almost campaign like. It will be interesting to see if the CNE dares to criticize Capriles  or if the electoral "acompañantes" (cf. Carter Center) will have anything to say about this.  I am not holding my breath.

The last week of campaign has not offered any surprise. Capriles has kept motivating his base, offering us the biggest rally ever in Caracas political history.  Apparently all in the foreign press did not seem to catch on that, but then again the recent reported problems in the Capriles media system can be blamed in part for that.

Still, the momentum is clearly in the Capriles camp, chavismo unable to find the adequate one liner, unable to offer a political rally without loading bus after bus of public workers forced to attend.  My S.O. had to go last Thursday to Maduro closing march and rally and I am putting a few of his pictures through this entry for decor. You can interpret them, according to your pre electoral mood, as the last days of chavismo or the dawn of the official Cuban era in Venezuela.

Maduro is a fascist idiot, the worst kind because they are cruel by sport

Lorenzo Mendoza promoting his competition?
Harina PAN all alone in the middle....

So tonight finally I checked out a few headlines and sure enough there is just too many idiocies that I cannot go to bed until I vent a little bit with you guys.

Apparently Maduro has been making a total ass of himself. I mean, TOTAL, as in without possible redemption, total enough that we truly must wonder why in hell Chavez named him his heir. Heck!  Even Ramirez starts looking good in comparison.  However I must also say that the idiotic presentations of Maduro seem at least to come in big part from his totally inadequate staff. What we see this week is the result of what happens when dumb instructs idiot.

What if chavismo has overreached?

I am back in Yaracuy after a two weeks absence as voting duty calls me (and my business of course  even though these days there is little business to do, but that is another story).

The first thing that caught my attention is that there is no Capriles ads left, not even from last October still hanging here and there. Posters have been removed, walls painted over. If you visit San Felipe today you would be forgiven from thinking that there is a single candidate for next Sunday, Maduro. Coming from Caracas, where Maduro posters are overwhelming  you still see enough evidence that he is not alone in the race. Here, in my local boondocks, no.

Maduro gets a non-mandate and Capriles does not buy it

Well, let's start from the beginning. I am not happy but I am far, very far from the funk I was last October 8. See, I purged myself from the oppressive knowledge that a majority of Venezuela were non democrats, people too easily blackmailed, too easily satisfied with government handouts, too willing to exact revenge against imaginary or real ills. Today with an alleged 50.6% we have an accurate number of Venezuelans that do not have democracy in high regard.  The bulk of the people who voted for Maduro today voted for one of the following reasons: Chavez told me so, I am not going to risk my public job even if the regime is a dictatorship, I am not going to risk my position where I can skim a lot of commissions,  I am going to keep my drug traffic racket, I am think that we have not punished X enough, I do not care about justice or freedom of expression as long as I get Z, and the like. None of these options is leading to democracy, and a coalition of them negates democracy. Because fret not: with 50,66% of the vote chavismo will feel equally in its right to impose its views of the country as if it had gotten 70%.

Another thoroughly wasted year in Venezuela

The title, now that I think of it, is misleading. 2014 has not only being wasted, but it has also been destructive. We failed to advance on any aspect, and we went back quite a lot on others.

El monstruo de Miraflores

Antes de que se me acuse de terrorismo, o de conspiración, o, por que no, de apatridismo por llamar a Nicolás Maduro el monstruo de Miraflores ruego que me permitan demostrar que los crimines que Nicolás ha cometido son más graves que los que presuntamente habría cometido al que llama el monstruo de Ramo Verde, Leopoldo López (vídeo).

Maduro in Cuba, mutual ass kissing with Fidel Castro, orders clearly implied

It is kind of impressive that as I was writing on the start of rationing in Venezuela Maduro had a surprise quick trip to Cuba, our colonial master. So many messages...  Let's start with the picture.

What is wrong here?

Could it be the first lady a.k.a. the "first fighter" sitting attentively demure in front whereas we would have expected either Fidel or Nicolas?

Could it be that all attendants are wearing the de rigueur white shirt of Cuban higher ranking officials?

Could it be that the house of a "revolutionary" seems rather well appointed, in the style of cozy Latin Bourgeoisie? And with modern finishes to boot.

Let's look now at the information available.

Last week Venezuelan electoral evaluation

The Capriles event yesterday in Caracas forces us to revise our assumptions for the result next Sunday. Let's go with the hard data we have.

The "10 de enero" myth

Chavismo has a way to turn things into myth even though they have not happened yet. They even do so unaware.  The latest is what will happen on January 10.

Technically, and constitutionally, it is very simple. Maduro "reelection" last May not having been made according to form is not legal. In addition he must be sworn in by the National Assembly on that date for his next term to be legal. Let's pass on all the past technicalities that make Maduro an illegal president all the way to the death of Chavez. Let's just focus on that January 10 dead line.

From rabipelao courts to public lynching: a day of contradictions in the regime

A regime on overdrive to survive has no qualms exploring interesting ways to reach results and contradict itself as it goes, as often as needed.  If you needed evidence that Maduro is grasping for straws, you get them in the last couple of days.

Who is Nicolas Maduro?

I suppose we should talk a little bit about the heir apparent. He deserves his 15 minutes of fame or whatever time Chavez agony lasts.

Besides this fabulous cartoon of Rayma which says everything about how Maduro reached the summit (?) I can say that Maduro has been making occasional appearances in this blog.

There was a post dedicated to him in 2006, a rather scathing one if I dare say so. But reading it again today there is little that I would add or even change. I suppose that 6 years as a foreign minster must have taught him a thing or two and maybe he could be an improvement from the current quandary. I also would like to pat myself for some of the prescience that I wrote then. But then again I should not congratulate myself too much because,  well, such regimes are in fact so predictable.

The other noteworthy thing about Maduro is his wife/companion, currently the republic main lawyer, a former chair of the National Assembly herself. Together they form the perfect "power couple" of chavismo, those willing to say anything, do anything to please their master.

We should also not forget the accusations from the ex justices on the run that would indicate that Maduro was actively involved in giving orders to the judicial power so as to put in jail given individuals regardless of their guilty status.

To finish this brief  we can note that Maduro has been one of the longest serving ministers of Chavez, probably the second longest serving one after Giordani. As such Maduro is responsible for such crimes as the alliances with Qaddafi,  Assad and other unappealing potentates who have become quite dear to Chavez since 2006.  His latest mission was to try to convince the military in Paraguay to make a coup to bring back Lugo from his defenestration.  In short, Maduro has been an international thug and the only interesting thing to solve is how much of the initiative was in the hands of Maduro.  In other words, was Maduro a simple executor of Chavez and Castro's initiatives or was he also a truly active ideological participant. That answer is the perhaps the biggest key to understand what is in store for us if Maduro indeed replaces Chavez.

Maduro is quite a piece of work and reading comments these days such as he could be more "polite" or "democratic" or "affable" than Chavez leave me quite cold.

Extraordinarily newsworthy day in the battle for democracy

I thought already when I was writing the communism decree that the regime wants to pass would be quite something already for a single day. I even started publishing it before I finished or corrected such was my state of discombobulation.  But tonight there is yet two more news, maybe more important because that decree can still be rejected by the Assembly. But apparently there are bigger fishes to fry.

President Maduro finally came tonight for his state of the Union. The speech was long, vapid, misleading when not blurting outrageous lies when vaunting the "successes" of 2015. The excitement came through the fact that he showed up when a few days ago it seemed that the rebelliousness of Diosdado Cabello with the support of some judges could carry the day and send the Assembly into nothingness. This can still happen but I have big doubts tonight about it ever happening.

The downfall of Maduro can only come from outside

And by that I do not mean the marines landing in La Guaira tomorrow. It will not happen. We are in the XXI century and things are done in other effective ways, as needed.

The title comes because the opposition is STILL collapsing further, in an hopeless slump that stops it from benefiting from any bonus point undeservedly thrown its way.

Nuevo récord de Maduro en burradas por discurso

Lo de Maduro hoy fue todo un récord de burradas, digno del más maburro de todos. Antes, permítanme hacer una acotación. Maduro es un ignorante. Lo único que hace es repetir sin entender lo que le preparan, desde la Habana lo mas seguro. No es que el sea estúpido, no. El es vivo e intrigante si no como llegaba hasta donde llegó. Pero viveza no es inteligencia ni raciocinio. Viveza es un agudo instinto de supervivencia ligado a ambición, falta de escrúpulos e ignorancia de lo básico. Pero, repito, inteligencia no es. Es por eso que un bruto puede ser vivo.

No se si fue en cadena o en discurso, pero lo que Maduro dijo hoy fue de lo último. (1). Sin mayor orden de importancia porque en verdad, como escoger dentro de lo peor... (2)